Short Term "Real Play" Probability Question

[Sethbets]

Ian Harmer (laughed off the Blackjack forums a decade ago) still dodging the OBVIOUS, of course folks he probably gave up playing this, it is only a dream. Which is why he is just another in a very long list of codgers with a winning strategy that can't be witnessed by anybody. Decent minded people would be hard pressed to test anything, when he openly bends the rules even on this site, just to prove a point.

Incidentally I asked you for fuck-all, you bombarded me with these ridiculous Excel spreadsheets, and you avoided everything I did ask for, such as that bad sequence, it took a month for this former scammer to finally fess up, he would have left the table and as everybody can see, he was willing to play those player dominated shoes, but won't go anywhere hear the set of Banker dominated shoes.

Anyway enough of this, I'll leave the final word to the "deluded fool himself"

this was lifted from his blog



Now tell me, who the hell is prepared to play a system that can have you losing for three months? Well maybe it you played once a month, it might be acceptable.

You really do find it impossible to tell the truth, don't you?

The Banker-biased shoes you keep talking about were trounced by Target, and every line - every bet - has been posted online for anyone who doubts that to check my facts (and unlike you, I only deal in facts) and form their own opinion about my honesty and accuracy. They have been their for weeks with a link provided at the bottom every time I add a new post.

The only rule-changers on BF are you and your cohort, LOTI: the Excel files I sent you months ago contained the bare-bones Target rules set that has existed for years, and the line-by-line bet breakdown confirms the application of those rules as stated.

Of course, you know this. You just see it as your duty to ignore truth that doesn't suit you, and substitute your sociopath's version of reality in post after post (a deranged vision betrayed in your off-board threats to BF members who challenge your serial mendacity).

You repeatedly demand proof, and then just as repeatedly boast that you "don't know, don't care" how the Target method does what it does, adding for good measure: "I don't give a rats (sic) ass."

You are a very sad little man, John, twisted by years of relentless failure.

As for the sports betting lag you quote, as usual it's out of context. Target is currently $175,000 ahead in an 18-month trial in which every day's bets are posted online and e-mailed to subscribers ahead of game times. It also happens to be in another temporary slump - but this is about long-term success, not short-term returns. It's an investment model, safer than the stock market.

You asked me for what was that again?



(e-mail outtakes)

Hi Seth

I never realised your blog went that far back. I now realise anything I mention, including variations suggestions you would have heard before and considered before. So I must apologise for regurgitating stuff you have answered in your blogs, it was simply a case I hadn't yet read them all. Of course I was in the wrong to suggest variations, you know exactly what you are doing.

What I would like to ask is how you would handle the shoe I posted below, in particular the 9 Banker streak.

Regarding who is "Walter", gambling forums attract their fair share of "Walter Mitty's". The usual bunch, I bet $1000 per hand and won 50 units, then skirt around every thing else.. As for you leaving, it was tongue in cheek.... Decent posters usually fade away inside six months...

Regarding your Excel spreadsheet, your a dab hand at Excel, no doubt, yet I struggle to understand it. Yup I agree Word-Perfect and Quatrro Plus were better products, until they were nobbled by the Microsoft juganaught.


Cheers

John

---

Date: Sat, 15 Oct 2011 16:33:55 -0700
From: sethbets@gmail.com
To: john_baccarat@live.co.uk
Subject: Re: Skipsim


Hey, JJ - It may be nuts but it's what you have to do to win. Sad, but true. Guy sells everything he own to buy a racehorse. It dies. He complains, "I couldn't afford the upkeep."

Seriously, though, if you and everyone else on the BF is looking for a winning strategy that will save you from making bets that you consider "just plain ridiculous" you will never, ever find it.

You mention "a few shoes." LOTI shot the strategy down in half a shoe, first by finding a sample with a 49% house edge, then by ignoring all the rules but one. I can easily prove that Target beats the 2,600 shoes Zumma and WOO supplied - but not without a whole bunch of "ridiculous" bets. Never mind that it builds the BR at a breathtaking rate...

As for Tomla's idea (he and I have started sorta working together on sports betting), you must be kidding. First, I won't bet Banker. But if I did, try it on the example below and by all means send me the bets as you see them.

You should toss the XL file. It won't impress you, I can tell. You're asking way too much from the arithmetic, I'm afraid.

Best,

Seth T.





On 10/15/2011 11:12 AM, j j wrote:

Seth

I've been very quickly reviewing a few shoes using your metho, things worked well. Then I came across this sucker, shoe 1 from a session.


P
B
PPP
BB
PP
BBBB
P
B (4u bet lost)
P (4u bet won)
BB (bet 4u lose, bet 4u lost)
P (win 4u bet, next bet 8 units, so far no disaster)
BBBBBBBB (a 9 streak at 8u each bet, that is plain ridiculous)
PP (okay you cleared the debt after making a 70+ unit bet, but it's nuts to drop so much in a single shoe)
BB
PPPP
BB
P

A winning shoe no doubt, but you will be up and down like a roller coaster, not counting the stress factor.

All it takes is a long banker streak and your not betting 1u. There are probably better bet selections than betting one side only for this MM, you could simply revert to LTD + 2 or whatever if you happened to betting on banker.

Take it easy, I'll look at the Excel sheet later on.

J

---

Date: Sat, 15 Oct 2011 08:56:23 -0700
From: sethbets@gmail.com
To: john_baccarat@live.co.uk
Subject: Re: Skipsim


JJ - Replace the e's in my BF name with 5s. It will work fine in XL2010 - let me know if you have problems.

Enjoyed your latest post. Right on the money.

If LOTI is self-appointed as the BF tester, he's not too good at it. I have never known anyone run a short-term test (or any test) without first checking protocol. How does anyone place a bet of 100,000 units? The man's an idiot! Imspirit did exactly the same thing, so my guess is he followed LOTI's lead without bothering to contact me first.

Soxfan's method is eerily similar to Target. The win progression is identical. No problem: Target has been on the Net for years. The post-win parlay doesn't work, but never mind.

As for draw-downs, I can state categorically that there is no alternative. Stop-losses are a disaster.

I have said my piece on the yawning gap between sims and real play. LOTI, Imspirit and Shackleford are all fully aware of this and don't care.

Like I keep saying, the only way to evaluate Target is to play it. It is ultimately self-supporting. The turnarounds are dramatic, especially at blackjack. After a while, backing the strategy effectively becomes a non-issue. I do very well with a $5,000 BR but life and its demands and obligations prevent me from going beyond that. One of these days...

My biggest problem (and I know it's huge!) is that I hate casinos - all that smoke and noise and widespread self-destruction by booze-soaked punters who don't take the time to learn the right way to bet. Their choice and their right, of course, but I don't like watching it. Online "casinos" are not an option for me. They cheat.

Re the sim, I'm well-used to nonsensical flak from theoretical mythematicians who insist that runaway sims are the only option. People simply don't play that way (except maybe for the aforementioned drunks and fools!).

I take your point about single-table situations. Solutions: Wait for the next shoe, go play a different game...or go home. The casino wants you to feel glued to your seat.

Keep winning!


Seth T.



On 10/15/2011 7:27 AM, j j wrote:

Hi Seth

No problem with the sharing of information, I will keep it all confidential...

To be honest, while the accumulation of Banker tax makes a lot of sense, I am not really a fan of Target Betting mainly due to the potential draw-downs. I can see a heavily Banker shoe is going to give the punter a lot of grief. It goes against my own methodology to try and recoup draw-downs inside two bets, the advantages are not great enough to outweigh the risks.

BF IMO is 90% amateurish, there are few who are willing to put in the effort to succeed. All they want to know is which side to bet and when, then need solutions served on a plate and then have unrealistic expectations.

Regarding LOTI, he is the self appointed board tester, so well liked for his usefulness, I very much doubt he actually plays at all, well not until he finds something to beat a million sims.
The funny thing is, he has helped me with a few systems over the years, we hit a brick wall, he gives up, I take it to the casino and win a decent amount of money playing them. There lies the difference between a player and a tester.

I've exchanged emails with Michael, I am aware of the accusations that get thrown his way, yet his WOO site I think is excellent for all casino games.

Regarding your defensive moves, while I understand where you are coming from, let's say your playing a shoe that has thrown a few long banker streaks at you, well all my mind is telling me, is each hand is independent, a few banker streaks doesn't rule out a few player streaks, in a one table environment leaving a table doesn't seem a viable option. However backing off on the bets, certainly does. Which is why I posted that variation, yet I can see chops will also be an issue.

If you are that confident in securing a twin win, here is a progression posted by Soxfan.

1-1-1-2 parlay all winning bets
5-10-15-25-40-65-105 (all winning bets are repeated) The profit after WW is below
5-10-10-15-20-30-45 (total cost 270 units and scope for 11 bets without a twin win).


Take Care

John

---

Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2011 21:48:28 -0700
From: sethbets@gmail.com
To: john_baccarat@live.co.uk
Subject: Skipsim

Hello, Egalite - The sim is attached. The methodology section should make it easy for you to follow and use. It's in Excel 2010 format, and I can convert it to XL2007 or earlier if necessary (although it won't look as pretty and the macro may not work!).

I have been at war with "runaway sims" for years. The idea that in normal play, someone would sit through a killer trend without defensive action insults the intelligence of anyone interested in the real arithmetic of games of chance.

The sims are a very handy tool for those on the BF and other world-wide gambling forums who are paid to demolish any betting method that utilizes progressive betting, but they are cynically used because the premise is knowingly false. I am especially disgusted by the "Wizard of Odds" - Shackleford pretends to be a player advocate, but he's worse than a shill: he's a paid professional liar.

I may sound like a conspiracy nut to you, but I have been through this many times. It always saddens me that there are so few people out there who genuinely want to learn how to beat casino table games.

And, of course, the games have to be beatable. Otherwise, there'd be no winners, and without winners, losers would not be drawn in. I'm not talking about luck here, either. The house edge is razor thin in most games (especially in baccarat and, even better, blackjack) and can be consistently overturned with disciplined, well-planned progressive betting.

As for LOTI, his math is faulty and his manners are worse. I'd bet money that he is in the casino business.

Anyway, the sim speaks for itself. If you walk away from potential or actual downtrends, preventing the possibility of an extended negative pattern that may develop and seriously threaten your BR, logic (and math!) dictate that you will cut into the house edge even before progressive betting overturns it and hands you an end-of-session profit. This happens because you don't walk away from winning streaks and you don't react to short-term losing streaks. Scroll down through the 1,000 lines of the sim and you'll see what I am talking about.

The file is password-protected. Annoying, I know, but I will give you the key as soon as I have your promise that the sim and all that the file contains, including any personal information of mine, and off-board e-mails like this one, will be kept strictly between us. I enjoy working with people who take this challenge seriously, but I have been burned a few times. That doesn't stop me from trying to get Target into play by as many people as possible.

Thanks for your suggested modifications, by the way. I have tried them all (the same ideas, long before I joined BF) and that's why Target is the way it is. Someone on BF recently told me the strategy might be made playable "with a little more work." I got a good laugh from that. This has been almost a full-time obsession for more years than most people surfing the Internet have been alive - but miraculously, I'm still a young man!

Best,

Seth T.


(ends e-mails)



Seth T.

Blog
Website
Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
Target Sports

[Egalite]

Nice cordial correspondence I would have thought, then I realised what the real Ian Harmer is like, can't get a straight answer to any difficult questions, fudging here and there to convince the masses. WHY? So why is it fucking lies you daft twat? The only thing I asked you was!!!

What I would like to ask is how you would handle the shoe I posted below, in particular the 9 Banker streak.

How would you handle that little run, did I get an answer? You danced around the question for about a MONTH, sent me excel file after excel file after excel file, whenever I asked you to explain any of the columns I couldn't get a straight answer. Then it began to dawn on me, your a bit NUTS. When the answer final arrived regarding handling that difficult run for any IDIOT betting P only, what was it again?? Oh yeah "I would have left the table", great fucking system, let's hope the Banker doesn't get five ahead when you wipe your ass and plonk it back down somewhere else.

Incidentally you former SCAMMER, I deleted all your emails, I see you kept mine, that probably says more about you than it does about me.

The real Ian W Harmer

But if you want the full vershttp://baccaratforums.com/t8066/ion of the strategy, with numerous variations, demo play logs and the numbers that support its 99.975% win rate, it will cost you $750 (a sum you can easily win in an hour or so using this method!).

After October 31, 2003, the price for the full Parlay+Plus package will go up to $1,000.

The asking price for the turd of a system called Turnaround was $69.95, why the big discrepancy? Did you suddenly realise how many desperate, gullible suckers are floating around on the net? So you decided to up the ante after being laughed off the BJ sites!!!

Oh yeah, don't worry Harmer, nobody noticed you weren't prepaid to demonstrate this "bring the casino to it's knees" piece of shite live, played by the crack-pot himself. Well no surprises there then <GRIN>.

[Sethbets]

Nice cordial correspondence I would have thought, then I realised what the real Ian Harmer is like, can't get a straight answer to any difficult questions, fudging here and there to convince the masses. WHY? So why is it fucking lies you daft twat? The only thing I asked you was!!!

How would you handle that little run, did I get an answer? You danced around the question for about a MONTH, sent me excel file after excel file after excel file, whenever I asked you to explain any of the columns I couldn't get a straight answer. Then it began to dawn on me, your a bit NUTS. When the answer final arrived regarding handling that difficult run for any IDIOT betting P only, what was it again?? Oh yeah "I would have left the table", great fucking system, let's hope the Banker doesn't get five ahead when you wipe your ass and plonk it back down somewhere else.

Incidentally you former SCAMMER, I deleted all your emails, I see you kept mine, that probably says more about you than it does about me.

The real Ian W Harmer
The asking price for the turd of a system called Turnaround was $69.95, why the big discrepancy? Did you suddenly realise how many desperate, gullible suckers are floating around on the net? So you decided to up the ante after being laughed off the BJ sites!!!

Oh yeah, don't worry Harmer, nobody noticed you weren't prepaid to demonstrate this "bring the casino to it's knees" piece of shite live, played by the crack-pot himself. Well no surprises there then <GRIN>.

There's a very simple reason why I kept all your e-mails: Your manic, pathetic battles with GR8 made it seem likely that your were, to put it politely, untrustworthy.

Your determination to live up to your reputation (on this and other boards) as a sociopath without a scintilla of principle or integrity, is confirmed every time you claim that I failed to respond to one of your sad little challenges.

For example, you claim again that you have never asked me for anything, so why not jog your selective memory by looking back to http://baccaratforums.com/t7775/#post46704.

Not only did I respond politely and in good faith to the request you say you never made, but I sent you the relevant files and posted them online for all to see.

Every claim I have ever made for Target has been backed by verifiable data, something you are unwilling and no doubt unable to provide every time to you launch into another of your half-baked rants.

My approach to progressive betting has always been available online for free, with every step fully described and explained.

It has, for sure, been simplified over the years, but intelligent people refine their ideas over time, adapting as necessary as they learn more about the challenges that face them. It's called progress, and I do understand after reading more of your tripe than I would have liked, that you don't believe in it.

You can keep on claiming that I have not accepted this or that challenge, but that will not alter the fact that every time you have asked for my help in explaining how Target would handle this or that set of rounds, I have responded promptly and respectfully with the information you requested.

Seth T.

Blog
Website
Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
Target Sports

[Egalite]

There's a very simple reason why I kept all your e-mails: Your manic, pathetic battles with GR8 made it seem likely that your were, to put it politely, untrustworthy.

Talking of Walter Mitty, seeing I no longer have your emails, maybe you would care to post, "what you really thought of somebody calling themselves GR8PLAYER". You didn't approve that much and thought it a joke, however in given time, you became buddies due to.....

You're pathetic Ian Harmer, you were pathetic a decade ago, nothing has changed, your not a Real World player by any stretch of the imagination, it has probably been far too long since you last sat at any Baccarat table, yet here you are, giving out tall tales that all you need to win is bust the table limits by shifting your ass constantly and buying in for thousands when your first bet is $5. You have no idea whatsoever, what you post is, simply your imagination and fantasy running wild.

[Sethbets]

Talking of Walter Mitty, seeing I no longer have your emails, maybe you would care to post, "what you really thought of somebody calling themselves GR8PLAYER". You didn't approve that much and thought it a joke, however in given time, you became buddies due to.....

You're pathetic Ian Harmer, you were pathetic a decade ago, nothing has changed, your not a Real World player by any stretch of the imagination, it has probably been far too long since you last sat at any Baccarat table, yet here you are, giving out tall tales that all you need to win is bust the table limits by shifting your ass constantly and buying in for thousands when your first bet is $5. You have no idea whatsoever, what you post is, simply your imagination and fantasy running wild.

We're not buddies, John, just simply in agreement with many, many others who have you have not yet been able to drive away from this forum that you are an embarrassment to this forum and (given your recently-published threats) to the human race as well.

Hope your disgusting behavior continues to make you proud and happy. It might even be a useful distraction from the simple truth that you have nothing else to offer.



Keep winning!

Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports

[Egalite]

Well my wins over the last few nights made me PROUD and VERY HAPPY and contented. Damn shame you won't post what you really thought about Walter Mitty, I suppose you are taking over the mantel now.

[Sethbets]

Well my wins over the last few nights made me PROUD and VERY HAPPY and contented. Damn shame you won't post what you really thought about Walter Mitty, I suppose you are taking over the mantel now.

You know what they say about blind squirrels and nuts.

As for the rest, it's just more inaccuracy and distraction. Why would I want to take over a horizontal shelf above a fireplace? Perhaps you mean "mantle"? That's a cloak, but of course you never did care much for accuracy, did you?



Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports

[Egalite]

Nope you never did care about "accuracy" Harmer. Off the top of my head what have you attributed to me? "Beating 10,000 shoes, sworn enemy of progressive betting & advocate of shallow betting", then we have you fudging your own figures by awarding 1.1u to Player wins, just to prove a point of course, also not disprove a point you have gone very quite about running from tables when the Banker gets 5 hands ahead, oh yeah, you do not like difficult questions. In fact you act like a typical seller!!! Oh wait a minute, you were a seller weren't you, or were you, of course you weren't, asking $1000 for Parlay plus was down to some rouge employee. I'd swear Ellis has used that same excuse.

So Ian how many desperate players did you swindle out of $1000 all those years ago? I mean you have been playing this Target method for a long long time now, perhaps you would be decent enough to refund the fools you ripped off, I mean you can make as much as you want from the tables right? We can forget about Turnaround as it was only $69 and you were just starting out as an internet scammer, but $1000 is a lot even by today's standards, so considering you are now so wealthy after all these years for success playing Target (25 to be precise), I'm sure you being an honourable and up right citizen will refund those desperate folk that you conned.

Oh yeah, ACCURACY???, didn't you recently bend your rules to show LWLW as clearing some horrendous draw-down and making an incredible one unit profit.

[Sethbets]

John - Target has been and remains available for free on this and other Internet sites since 1997.

Target has evolved since its early days as Turnaround, and is more effective and efficient and easier to use than ever.

That's a fact.

Also a fact is that Target has beaten every nit-picky little challenge you have thrown at it, with line by line and bet by bet corroboration provided (see links below).

You, on the other hand, have never - in all the years that you have posted to this and other forums under multiple aliases calculated to mislead - contributed a single new idea or substantive advice.

You ignore data and reiterate disinformation for reasons that no one in this group (or the others you have similarly polluted) can fathom, and you have been doing it the same old way for years. That's not evolution, John.

Zumma 600 Target win summary.JPG

You will never be able to explain away success like this with your constant carping and deliberate disinformation.

Nor will you be able to provide corroborative data for your own methods, because even if you ever had something useful to contribute here, you have neither the skill nor the commitment to accuracy that is required to prove new ideas.

As for L-W-L-W, it is clear to anyone but you that if that sequence continued from now until Judgment Day, it would spell horrendous losses for anyone betting randomly as you do, but would make a progressive bettor richer than Croesus (aka Bill Gates, or maybe Carlos Slim). It is a perfect proof of the need to win more when you win than you lose when you lose. In those four bets, Target would show a profit of 2 units out of 6 units of action (+33%) against an AV of 0%.

Thanks for demonstrating once again how little you know.


Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports

[Egalite]

Also a fact is that Target has beaten every nit-picky little challenge you have thrown at it, with line by line and bet by bet corroboration provided

Is that right?

I'm still waiting for you to BEAT (as you put it), these Zumma shoes;

540

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45

20

69.2%

538

P

T

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50

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71.4%

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53

20

72.6%

You, on the other hand, have never - in all the years that you have posted to this and other forums under multiple aliases calculated to mislead - contributed a single new idea or substantive advice.

LOL, we are all entitled to our opinions, I will however claim to have cleaned up the Baccarat forums sub-board on Gamblersglen by getting rid of all the parasite sellers many years ago. So Target has been available since 1997, how noble of you, considering you where selling "Parlay +Plus" as late as 2003, how about REFUNDING those you ripped off. You must be very wealthy winning with Target for 25 years <GRIN>.

As for L-W-L-W, it is clear to anyone but you that if that sequence continued from now until Judgment Day, it would spell horrendous losses for anyone betting randomly as you do, but would make a progressive bettor richer than Croesus (aka Bill Gates, or maybe Carlos Slim). It is a perfect proof of the need to win more when you win than you lose when you lose. In those four bets, Target would show a profit of 2 units out of 6 units of action (+33%) against an AV of 0%.

Demented idiot, how can you equate betting randomly and a L-W-L-W sequence. So are you comparing bet selection or the L-W-L-W sequence?

It is my understanding one of the Target rules is (when you are not fudging the figures) is you repeat the last winning bet and stay at that bet until the next win. However a recent example posted on this board showed you betting 12u W 12u L then 24U win, all draw-downs cleared.

thanks for demonstrating once again how little you know.

You're welcome, there is a big difference between a demented mouth on the internet (it's amazes your desperate conviction to convince) and somebody who is playing regularly week in and week out.

Ian Harmer you totally ignored REFUNDING those that you conned with the $1000 "Parlay +Plus" and to a lesser degree Turnaround. How about starting by saying sorry?

[Sethbets]

Is that right?

I'm still waiting for you to BEAT (as you put it), these Zumma shoes;

540

B

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69.2%

538

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B

B

P

P

B

P

P

B

B

B

B

B

P

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

T

P

B

B

B

B

B

T

B

B

P

B

B

T

P

P

B

B

P

B

B

B

P

B

T

B

T

P

P

P

B

B

B

T

50

20

71.4%

701

B

T

B

B

B

P

P

B

B

B

B

B

P

B

T

P

P

B

B

B

P

P

B

B

P

B

T

P

T

P

B

B

B

B

T

P

T

B

P

P

B

B

B

B

B

B

P

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

P

B

P

B

B

B

B

B

B

T

P

P

B

T

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

P

P

B

B

B

T

B

B

53

20

72.6%

LOL, we are all entitled to our opinions, I will however claim to have cleaned up the Baccarat forums sub-board on Gamblersglen by getting rid of all the parasite sellers many years ago. So Target has been available since 1997, how noble of you, considering you where selling "Parlay +Plus" as late as 2003, how about REFUNDING those you ripped off. You must be very wealthy winning with Target for 25 years <GRIN>.

Demented idiot, how can you equate betting randomly and a L-W-L-W sequence. So are you comparing bet selection or the L-W-L-W sequence?

It is my understanding one of the Target rules is (when you are not fudging the figures) is you repeat the last winning bet and stay at that bet until the next win. However a recent example posted on this board showed you betting 12u W 12u L then 24U win, all draw-downs cleared.

You're welcome, there is a big difference between a demented mouth on the internet (it's amazes your desperate conviction to convince) and somebody who is playing regularly week in and week out.

Ian Harmer you totally ignored REFUNDING those that you conned with the $1000 "Parlay +Plus" and to a lesser degree Turnaround. How about starting by saying sorry?

The shoes you keep asking about (while insisting that have never asked me for anything) are fully covered in the file for which there is a link below. That same link has been there for weeks, but you won't pull up the data because it shows you to be the fool you seem to be from your idiotic and intemperate tirades.

If you find anyone with a complaint about services they have paid me for, please have them contact me with a proof of purchase and I will refund double their money.

Don't kid yourself that you have any admirers on this or any other gambling board, under any of your multiple aliases. You're a pollutant, nothing more, intent on doing as much damage as possible. Your claim that you have cleaned anything up is truly hilarious.

Your job is to try to convince people that they can win consistently against the house edge with the use of FLD, OLD, DBL and other hogwash, along with a suicidally tight spread. Your sponsors are doubtless proud of you.

My job is to use accurate math and verifiable data to demonstrate to the same people that without a very large bankroll and a viable, disciplined betting method (one that has nothing whatever to do with hopping from B to P and back again) they have no chance of winning in the long run.

Post your true identity on this board and we will arrange to meet when I visit London this summer (I was born in North Wembley). But I warn you right now that if you don't behave yourself, you will regret it. That's not a threat, because I can be confident that you don't have the courage to reveal yourself.



Keep winning!

Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports

[Egalite]

If you find anyone with a complaint about services they have paid me for, please have them contact me with a proof of purchase and I will refund double their money.

Comical, how many victims would have kept such going back close to 10 years, worming you way out of something once again.

Your job is to try to convince people that they can win consistently against the house edge with the use of FLD, OLD, DBL and other hogwash, along with a suicidally tight spread. Your sponsors are doubtless proud of you.

No but my wallet is, not that I have ever told / insisted / pleaded that anybody plays any particular way, what people take or don't take, I don't really care, however you whole being seems very dependant on it. I'm not here trying to collect friends like so some lonely saddo, it is more satisfying making friends with real faces.

Listen up Ian Hamer or is it Harmon, it you manage to rub together the airfare to visit the motherland, I'll gladly meet up, call me John, Carl, Mr Lund, anything you want, just don't start another Archer drama over it all and I do like making mistakes, the bigger the better.

[Sethbets]

Comical, how many victims would have kept such going back close to 10 years, worming you way out of something once again.
No but my wallet is, not that I have ever told / insisted / pleaded that anybody plays any particular way, what people take or don't take, I don't really care, however you whole being seems very dependant on it. I'm not here trying to collect friends like so some lonely saddo, it is more satisfying making friends with real faces.

Listen up Ian Hamer or is it Harmon, it you manage to rub together the airfare to visit the motherland, I'll gladly meet up, call me John, Carl, Mr Lund, anything you want, just don't start another Archer drama over it all and I do like making mistakes, the bigger the better.

OK, John, you win - I have (mostly) tried to assume that you are a decent human being of at least average intelligence, and you have chosen to prove me wrong.

From now on, I will put your credibility and integrity in proper context whenever you attack me by quoting one of your many insane tirades aimed at others who have exposed you as a fraud:

what kind of a person is egalite

I believe you when you say you're not out to make friends.

Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports

[Egalite]

OK, John, you win - I have (mostly) tried to assume that you are a decent human being of at least average intelligence

See you are lying ONCE AGAIN.

YAWN

[tomlasan]

exactly how is Mr Seth lying? I dont understand?

[Sethbets]

exactly how is Mr Seth lying? I dont understand?

I think what he means is that I don't really think he's a person of at least average intelligence. He's caught me out at last.

It is difficult to deal with someone who consistently confirms with sociopathic behavior that he has no self-respect, because people with low self-esteem respect everyone else even less.

"John" will never reveal his true identity (here or anywhere else) because he is playing a role, one that would embarrass and discredit him if he were personally linked with all the garbage he spews on-board, and in manic e-mails and PMs. I just hope he's being paid well for the damage he does. He's driven countless BF contributors away and dragged this discussion group down, but you have to give him some credit: He has succeeded in doing what he set out to do.

Keep winning!

Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports

[Egalite]

Your catching on...

If the idiots and Walter Mitty's on this board feel threatened by my exposing their bullshit, then it's their problem. Alternatively we would all be victim to "who can spin the biggest yarn" and "who has the wildest imagination", at the moment it's Ian Harmer.

You lied again, Turnaround was sold for $69, unless of course it was another rouge employee.

[tomlasan]

Mr Egalite , do you have any thing to say or do you just say nothing in several different ways like your several different aliases?

[LOTI]

Turnaround was a piece of garbage, as is Target. One can think of many better, SAFER, ways to use a 5000-1 bet spread LOL

The guy is a joke. His sports betting graph shows drawdowns of tens of thousands of dollars! Must be nice to have 100k to just flush down the toilet (with Target) LOL

[Sethbets]

Your catching on...

If the idiots and Walter Mitty's on this board feel threatened by my exposing their bullshit, then it's their problem. Alternatively we would all be victim to "who can spin the biggest yarn" and "who has the wildest imagination", at the moment it's Ian Harmer.

You lied again, Turnaround was sold for $69, unless of course it was another rouge employee.

Jeez, John, dealing with you is like trying to have a conversation with a parrot on speed - except that from your profane rants and threats, it's clear you're on something much stronger.

Turnaround was never sold, it was always given away for free. Likewise, Target is all over this forum and elsewhere on the 'Net, for free. Anyone who knows how to Google (and it seems you don't) can check that.

Your nasty little posts never tackle the question of whether or not the Target take on progressive betting actually works, because you "don't know, don't care" and "don't give a rats [sic] ass" when it comes to looking at verifiable data that proves you to be an idiot.

You have never exposed BS or anything else - you just rant on and on, resorting to threats when your cracked-record approach doesn't get you anywhere.

I will say this: Anyone who wants personal one-on-one tuition from me has to pay for it, and I have had many takers over the years. The deal is simple enough: I'm expensive, but if you don't win while I'm teaching you, you don't pay! If that's a scam, little man, it's the most honest one anyone ever heard of!

You keep mentioning this "rouge employee" - what is that, a Communist? Someone wearing too much make-up?

Get back in your cage, Polly. You're becoming a bore.

Keep winning!

Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports

[Sethbets]

Turnaround was a piece of garbage, as is Target. One can think of many better, SAFER, ways to use a 5000-1 bet spread LOL

The guy is a joke. His sports betting graph shows drawdowns of tens of thousands of dollars! Must be nice to have 100k to just flush down the toilet (with Target) LOL

"Benn Gunn" seems a little confused. First he says baccarat can't be beaten at all, then he says he has devised a strategy of his own that delivered less than a 1-unit-per-shoe profit against tens of thousands of shoes.

Next, he says "anyone" could devise a betting strategy that beats the house with a 1-5,000 spread, but he never offers data to support that claim. Not surprising, because a capped Martingale (no bets higher than 5,000 units) can't do it, and LOTI can't either.

He carps on and on about draw-downs and high bets, apparently unable to grasp the simple truth that no one can win long term in a casino without a very large BR and occasional very high risk.

I have never denied that, and never will.

The salient point is that money alone is not a guarantee of success (hence my references to the late Kerry Packer, the biggest "whale" Las Vegas ever saw).

Big bucks and a viable plan, now that's a different story.

"Benn" claims to be an Excel wizard, but he has not offered one iota of rebuttal to all the corroborative data I have made accessible to him, along with everyone else visiting or subscribing to this forum. Reason: He can't.

It's no wonder he's bitter and twisted, poor lad. LOL? Grow up, will you!


Keep winning!

Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports

[Egalite]

Jeez, John, dealing with you is like trying to have a conversation with a parrot on speed - except that from your profane rants and threats, it's clear you're on something much stronger.

What you talking aobut you stupid coot, I've been constrained most of the time you daft cunt.

Turnaround was never sold, it was always given away for free. Likewise, Target is all over this forum and elsewhere on the 'Net, for free. Anyone who knows how to Google (and it seems you don't) can check that.

Yeah will do, when I find the link were the asking price was $69, anyway that aside, you certainly pumped parlay +plus did'nt ya.

After October 31, 2003, the price for the full Parlay+Plus package will go up to $1,000.

Why would anyone want to pay good money when the core strategy is available right here for no dough? My bet is that once serious players find out for themselves how uniquely effective Parlay+Plus is at bringing in profits, they will want to know much more about it. For instance, the method�s multiple variations will help you apply smart and effective damage control, dodge casino heat and keep pit prod-noses guessing without greatly affecting your win rate.

My advice�don�t even think about building on your basic knowledge of this unique betting strategy until you have tested the principles described here and are completely convinced that you can make them work for you.

The best way to test those principles may be by downloading one or more of the hundreds of �demo� software packages offered by online �casinos� around the world. You can then give Parlay+Plus a complete workout against games that are generally much tougher to beat than their equivalents in non-virtual casinos and are outside your control�or mine.

Once you decide to switch from no-risk to real money play, you will learn that cold hard cash somehow makes the games at even the most popular online casinos even harder to beat. After all, casinos that offer buy-in bonuses of 10% or more aren�t likely to win that money back if they stick to an honest house advantage of 5% or less!

Online casinos that protest their integrity and explain that they can pay bonuses because most people play with small bankrolls that don�t last long may actually be telling the truth. Certainly Parlay+Plus needs a larger bankroll than most casual gamblers are willing to risk. The problem is that online casinos are unregulated, and because they are barely legal, have not been fully evaluated by independent authorities with any real credibility.

When conducting your personal evaluation of Parlay+Plus, keep in mind that the test of a good strategy is not how it performs when the going is relatively easy, as it is most of the time, but how it does when the house starts getting all the breaks.

Parlay+Plus works because it exploits win-loss patterns to ensure a profit even in sequences of bets in which the house won more often than the player did. And make no mistake�the house edge in casino games will eventually see to it that over time, you will lose more bets than you win�but that does not mean that you have to lose money.

The only way to beat a house edge that�s always there is to make sure that your average win value always exceeds your average loss value by a percentage that is substantially greater than the prevailing house advantage�and that�s what Parlay+Plus was designed to do for you.

After a few hours of �demo� play during which you�ve �won� more than you ever have before at a variety of casino games�blackjack, baccarat, craps and roulette are my staples, but it�s player�s choice�you may begin to think you and P+P are an invincible team. You will be if you learn how to blend courage and caution in the right proportions, but that takes time.

Whenever strategy bets start to climb alarmingly high, console yourself with the thought that because the loss to date and the bet value are always in lockstep (even if adjustments are sometimes delayed by a losing streak) it will never require more than two or three consecutive wins to get you out of trouble.

And, of course, you can move from one layout to another, from game to game, or from casino to casino without affecting the probabilities and whenever your confidence wavers, you can postpone a crucial run at recovery for as long as your patience will allow.

The dilemma that every player faces, win or lose, is�when do you stop? Quit too soon when you�re ahead and you walk away with the uneasy feeling that you could have made an even bigger profit if you had hung in there. Greed is not the issue here�your aim is always to boost the bankroll after every playing session, to make it stronger for future challenges, and my rule is to always add at least half of each session�s profits to the bankroll ready for next time.

Bail out too early on a downturn and you become just another statistic among the millions who try to challenge the casinos without adequate money to back them. The casinos, remember, play a waiting game and they count on most players being undisciplined and emotional. They are not often disappointed.

Computer simulations tell us that Parlay+Plus will lose 1 sequence of bets in 4,000 given a substantial bankroll and skilled, precise application of the strategy rules. It�s possible to significantly improve the odds by raising both the bet limit and the bankroll, but that would mean matching casino cash resources almost dollar for dollar, and that�s hardly a practical option.

Computer sims also confirm that as the bet limit and bankroll are reduced, the strategy�s chances are proportionately diminished. But even when Parlay+Plus is strangled with the tightest shoestring, the odds in the player�s favor remain dramatically better than betting without some form of disciplined money management.

The problem with those all-knowing computer simulations is that they cannot factor in human nature, experience, intuition and knowledge, and what I can�t tell you is whether or not your skill and commitment can avoid a bankroll crisis roughly every 25,000 bets (see below). Random number generators also have a nasty habit of repeating themselves, recycling huge blocks of identical values in the same order�something that can�t happen in real play.

I believe that Parlay+Plus�s predicted 99.975% win rate can be greatly improved upon when human response is factored into play, but I can�t prove it because it would take me much more than a lifetime to play and log a sample of outcomes that a simulation can tear through in a few minutes.

You be the judge.

Would you keep betting like a robot when the house has taken a dozen or more bets from you in succession? Probably not�but an automated �sim� will do it every time because damage control cannot be discriminately applied in that setting.

If you have questions, drop us a line and we'll try to answer them.


G.T.Woo (Getting the Word Out Online)
Parlay+Plus Ultimate Money Management
parlayplus@highsierragetaways.com

The real Sethbets, $1000 for a MM system, what a fuckin' crook. And now he admits to wanting to be paid to learn, and if it doesn't work, guess what you go home broke and don't pay. Sure sounds like a no-lose proposition from the scammer. Christ he could even test this theory using YOUR MONEY, hell it's no risk to him!!!!

Mr Egalite , do you have any thing to say or do you just say nothing in several different ways like your several different aliases?

Hey hey, the Bastard off spring of a 3rd world goat shagger is back, typing as much as possible before his fat fingers turn into hooves.

[LOTI]

Seth is just another piece of shit scammer.

[jaysmith]

At lease he is trying to help people what have you done beside
swing from egolites balls. Monkey says monkey does.

[LOTI]

At lease he is trying to help people what have you done beside
swing from egolites balls. Monkey says monkey does.

LOL. When you learn how to spell, I MIGHT feel the inclination to school you, kid.

LOL

[jaysmith]

Ok Monkey, I guess you will wait for egolites permission before you talk.
Real World Bullshit. Oh that was my point from the beginning.

[jaysmith]

Yes I wrote that.
I wanted to see what your response would be
Did it make you smile.
Did you feel special
Or did you think you could fish me for my info of the game
So you can sell that to Elise too
See I know what you do.
John

[jaysmith]

Oh did that bite a nerve Johnny Boy

People on this site should know what you do with the info you aquire
on this site.
You should tell them Johnny Boy
Or will your friend Elise get mad at you
Maybe no more phone calls for Johnny Boy

[Sethbets]

Nice job, Sherlock, and I stand by everything Ian wrote back then - he really knew his stuff.

Thanks for confirming yet again that lacking anything original or substantive to contribute under your own steam, the best you can manage is to copy and paste other people's great ideas.

Get off the pot, John, we've all had more than enough of your pointless piss and wind.

At least you've stopped demanding Target's bets for those shoes that you thought were unbeatable.

Guess you removed your head from its usual location for long enough to notice that the solution to your silly challenge has been in circulation for weeks.

I really do appreciate all the good work you are doing on my behalf.


Keep winning!

Seth T.

Blog
Website

Egalite’s “tough” shoes (Target betting all B, then all P)
Egalite’s true colors fly high and proud!
Offset for Bank Tax XL file on SkyDrive
Testing Romogracie’s 5-step Marty XL
Spread wide to win!
The truth about bet spreads: Why wide wins...
Target Sports