Thread: Very Basic Situational Betting #1

Hello Everyone,

DISCLAIMER: I am just sharing my experience how and what I use to grind in very beginning of my baccarat career. It's not a system, trick, guide, or anything. It's just what I went through to become regular in baccarat.

It was very basic and simple.
You wait till pbpbpb or bpbpbp to happen and make a progressive betting up to three times that double will occur.

For example, wail till pbpbpb or bpbpbp then when it does

pbpbpb - i bet .5 unit that next one will be b
pbpbpbp - i bet 1.5 unit that next one will be p
pbpbpbpb - I bet 4 unit that next one will be b

After observing the table for more than a week before I played, I found out that it never passed 8 mark.
Therefore, I told myself that unless I am destined not to play baccarat I shouldn't get the 9 mark

Anyways, whenever I win 1+ unit I went home and came back next day and did the same for 6 month.
Now I don't wait for this to happen when I play baccarat (i have many situational bets for different situation now) but I always use it when the opportunity arises while I play in the table.


Reason why progression was .5 -> 1.5 -> 4 because I want to make casino pay for making me play extra hands.

Look at this way, if my bet was 1 -> 2 -> 4 I win 1 unit in three hands. Review yourself after winning 1 hand. Was it really worth playing three hands for 1 unit?
Do you remember that more hands you play casino has better chance of loosing? Don't you want to make casino pay for it as well? that's why I did .5 -> 1.5 -> 4

if i win first hand, that's great! it's a freebie .5. If casino pushes me to play 2nd hand because I lost, I am going to make casino pay for it by going 1.5. If i lose again, then I am going to make them pay 2 units.

Longest it took me to make 1+ unit was 2 hours. Happy hunting guys!

Helper,
On numerous occasions members write in looking for a method to make 1 unit a day.I think you have served it up for all to see..Worse case situation it doesn't work.I'll take you at your word that it's as good as you say and I'll try it out myself.After 6 or 7 singles it looks good to double up.Thanks for sharing your method.

If a straight chop like that comes up I go against them and for a repeat also, after 7 singles....only if it doesnt interfere with my other bets but they do go beyond 8 "but it is rare"

Originally Posted by Tripper

Helper,
On numerous occasions members write in looking for a method to make 1 unit a day.I think you have served it up for all to see..Worse case situation it doesn't work.I'll take you at your word that it's as good as you say and I'll try it out myself.After 6 or 7 singles it looks good to double up.Thanks for sharing your method.

Tripper,

Please note that this is an evaluation from casino I go to. You should study your casino as well to see the frequency of those singles and find the percentage.
Know your enemy is the key to victory. Don't ever forget that.

Originally Posted by tomla

If a straight chop like that comes up I go against them and for a repeat also, after 7 singles....only if it doesnt interfere with my other bets but they do go beyond 8 "but it is rare"

tomla,

YMMV but I experienced much less singles that go beyond 8 than straight that goes beyond 8 in my casino. thus, even the concept of idea is same, i believed it as this be more beneficial to me go on singles rather than repeats.
Again, I am basing it on what i saw during the casino evaluation period.

I totally agree with you. I don't think I have actually seen one in real play go more than 10 bpbpbpbpbp ,I do the same with a diff progression all the time . I am surprised that I haven't read this more as I would think a lot of players use this bet as a side bet all the time. As an alternate you can do separate progressions against each stage. This might be hard to follow? say every time you see a 5 chop bet against, if win finished if lose next time a 5 chop comes even if its in a different shoe go against w a progression if lose wait again etc, same with 6,7,8,9,10, ,,,,, keep them all as separate bets. You have to be decent at tracking them from shoe to shoe but it works. Im not sure if you will get what I am saying?

Originally Posted by tomla

I totally agree with you. I don't think I have actually seen one in real play go more than 10 bpbpbpbpbp ,I do the same with a diff progression all the time . I am surprised that I haven't read this more as I would think a lot of players use this bet as a side bet all the time. As an alternate you can do separate progressions against each stage. This might be hard to follow? say every time you see a 5 chop bet against, if win finished if lose next time a 5 chop comes even if its in a different shoe go against w a progression if lose wait again etc, same with 6,7,8,9,10, ,,,,, keep them all as separate bets. You have to be decent at tracking them from shoe to shoe but it works. Im not sure if you will get what I am saying?

Tomla,

You have enlightened me on this. You have provided me a new style of betting I haven't crossed yet. I am very happy that I joined this forum.
Anyways, I find it very powerful tool and win extra units per win but I am a small time player who just use gambling money for my luxury usuage.
However, I can see that this is very good betting style if you would like to make living off baccarat. Thank you again!

No Problem, you can use that type of betting on a lot of anti-streak triggers if you have the patience and time to track from shoe to shoe. I am no huge bettor either,, "but every penny and chip of any denomination do help make life more fun and it sure is better than losing"

"no Whining just Winning"

I have seen 17 chops in a row. I also see 6-8 chops quite frequently, once every other show I would say. Betting against a streak of 5 or 6 chops hoping that it doubles could lead you to distaster. Most systems lead you to disaster so not sure that it differs any!

hi, interesting stuff helper and tomla
thanks

hi all,

i don't want to be the "party pooper" so to speak..but coincidentally i just encountered a 12 zigzag this morning.....so its important to set a stop loss..u will never know wat will happen...........fortunately i follow the "wind direction" and manage to make some $$$$$............anyway GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!

"we can't change the cards we r dealt, just how we play the hands" : Randy Pausch


JIM

Originally Posted by daytrader

I have seen 17 chops in a row. I also see 6-8 chops quite frequently, once every other show I would say. Betting against a streak of 5 or 6 chops hoping that it doubles could lead you to distaster. Most systems lead you to disaster so not sure that it differs any!

I have seen 17 chops in a row as well. I have seen 36 streak as well. So do you recommend betting on the pattern here? If not what are you suggesting? Your post has not even a slightest useful information in it.
I am not bashing on you cause of your opinion but please make useful comments.

Originally Posted by jimng

hi all,

i don't want to be the "party pooper" so to speak..but coincidentally i just encountered a 12 zigzag this morning.....so its important to set a stop loss..u will never know wat will happen...........fortunately i follow the "wind direction" and manage to make some $$$$$............anyway GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!

"we can't change the cards we r dealt, just how we play the hands" : Randy Pausch


JIM

I agree whole heartily. You are one of those special person who stayed in casino at perfect time to witness the greatness of baccarat. Anything can happen.

At one time I used to think I had special situational bets that had a higher percentage of wins possible. And then I took the time to investigate and found I was dead wrong. No one decision is any better or worse than any other decision. That is why you will never find a michanical BS that comes out winner. All will lose at about 49% overall and variance will kill your BR. Wins and losses are not constant but subject to drift, and it is drift that cannot be predicted or accounted for. The natural ebbs and tides of consecutive wins, cosecutive losses, and mixtures of the two are not predictable in any way. There are too many combinations to account for or to anticipate. love,swami

Originally Posted by helper

I have seen 17 chops in a row as well. I have seen 36 streak as well. So do you recommend betting on the pattern here? If not what are you suggesting? Your post has not even a slightest useful information in it.
I am not bashing on you cause of your opinion but please make useful comments.

A good strategy I deploy is this:
I notice what's the shoe's producing, say:
2 runs of 5: the next time I see a 5 in a row I bet opposite, if the bet is won ok, I'm +1; if it loses I don't bet against THIS run but on the NEXT run of 5 (or what the shoe's producing mostly) I'll bet opposite for 1.5 u.
You can do this with streaks, chops, number of groups in a row, etc
Usually it works quite well, but don't expect great numbers from this strategy: when I'm at +3 I exit at the first loss. Hit'n'run!

Stop loss or other means of avoiding suicide are of course recommended ......

Originally Posted by helper

I have seen 17 chops in a row as well. I have seen 36 streak as well. So do you recommend betting on the pattern here? If not what are you suggesting? Your post has not even a slightest useful information in it.
I am not bashing on you cause of your opinion but please make useful comments.

What I meant to say is that this style of play is suicidal and a quick way to financial disaster. Betting against X amount of chops is the same as betting against 5 players/banks, 6, 10, 25, etc. Betting against streaks is a sure fire way to hit your stop loss and if you dont have one, go gome talking to yourself saying you never seen something like this. I have seen many of people go against chops, streaks, etc. Best of luck.

Originally Posted by swami

At one time I used to think I had special situational bets that had a higher percentage of wins possible. And then I took the time to investigate and found I was dead wrong. No one decision is any better or worse than any other decision. That is why you will never find a michanical BS that comes out winner. All will lose at about 49% overall and variance will kill your BR. Wins and losses are not constant but subject to drift, and it is drift that cannot be predicted or accounted for. The natural ebbs and tides of consecutive wins, cosecutive losses, and mixtures of the two are not predictable in any way. There are too many combinations to account for or to anticipate. love,swami

I agree with you that no one decision is any better or worse than any other decision and all will lose at about 51% overall not 49%. However, i place my bet by the planned out consecutive bets, not as an individual hand. For example, on a bpp or pbb I bet my money on that it will be a chop so I go opposite of last winner (Note that this is my situational bets that I make when I am faced with two in a rows in order to set up for my next bet). Let’s say you win, then you are +1 unit. Get up and search for another table. Now, if you lose because streak of 3 happened, I bet on the streak with +2 unit. If you win, place 1 unit on the same streak until it loses. If you lose your + 2 unit bet, get up and search for another table.
Do you see what I did there? I planned ahead for my next bet.
There are four different ending to this scenario:

1. You win your first bet = up 1 unit
2. You win your 2^nd bet and lose your third bet = Even money.
3. You win your 2^nd bet and continue to win till streak ends = Who knows how much you will be up.
4. You lose your 2^nd bet = down 3 units.

Look at the possibilities of outcomes.
Back to the point, you are 100% correct on that every bet you make is 51% favored to casino on a single hand and I am not implying that it will hit 100%. These are situational bets that I have planned out to help me achieve better outcome in a long run when I am inside of casino.
Hell, if you don’t want to plan because it’s too much hassle? Just bet your entire daily bank roll on one random hand. I guarantee you that that is your best method to win most per hand.
Please also note that I don't play entire shoe. I play maybe 10 to 12 hands total in a day to win my target unit which is 2unit.

Originally Posted by daytrader

What I meant to say is that this style of play is suicidal and a quick way to financial disaster. Betting against X amount of chops is the same as betting against 5 players/banks, 6, 10, 25, etc. Betting against streaks is a sure fire way to hit your stop loss and if you dont have one, go gome talking to yourself saying you never seen something like this. I have seen many of people go against chops, streaks, etc. Best of luck.

daytrader,

Thank you for the quality post. It seems i forgot to state that I have stop loss on my third bet.

Best of luck to you as well.

One way I used to do a bet like this is say you decide to go against 6 chops: I would use a regular labby (Labouchere) against the 7 and 8 chop--if I lose I wait for the next 6 chop in this shoe or next repeat -follow the same procedure until that Labouchere line is cleared. How many 8 chops in a row are you going to encounter in a row? LOL LOTI can probably give us a definitive answer on that? so your going only 2 steps ... My favorite is using a "mini marty Labby" which I might explain in another thread
"no Whining just Winning"

Originally Posted by daytrader

What I meant to say is that this style of play is suicidal and a quick way to financial disaster. Betting against X amount of chops is the same as betting against 5 players/banks, 6, 10, 25, etc. Betting against streaks is a sure fire way to hit your stop loss and if you dont have one, go gome talking to yourself saying you never seen something like this. I have seen many of people go against chops, streaks, etc. Best of luck.

Actually, anti-streak play is a very solid style. You just have to have the stomach and bankroll to withstand getting whacked in the short term, hey hey.

1) It is a low percentage that a b/p will continue for 10 in a row, but remember that whether it will progress to 11, the chances are 50/50.

2) Whether it happen frequently depend on which casino u played in. (number of tables exposed)

I played in big casino with over 100 of baccarat tables running at the same time... I see over 10 chops almost anytime I want to. But that doesn't mean that if you play in a 6 tables casino you won't meet 1. Maybe that's also why I dun have the stomach to do what you do... It is self killing...

your heart goes into your throat on long ones, but god bless the sox guy, I am not going too deep lately just 6 to one at worst
best o luck

"no Whining just Winning"

After 6 chops bet the double. I included this "play" in my arsenal about 7 years ago. Then I hit a 22 chop run "no kiddin", the more I lost the more angry I got, I couldn't believe it. "It was a long time ago", I went broke long before the 22nd chop, I stuck around to see how far it would go.

I believe you have to be playing "for something" in advance in order to exploit, otherwise the player MUST apply a stop loss to ANY bet selection. There will be lots more betting opportunities, don't get wiped out by any single bad run.

Originally Posted by Egalite

After 6 chops bet the double. I included this "play" in my arsenal about 7 years ago. Then I hit a 22 chop run "no kiddin", the more I lost the more angry I got, I couldn't believe it. "It was a long time ago", I went broke long before the 22nd chop, I stuck around to see how far it would go.

I believe you have to be playing "for something" in advance in order to exploit, otherwise the player MUST apply a stop loss to ANY bet selection. There will be lots more betting opportunities, don't get wiped out by any single bad run.

I can see that you guys are emphasizing how player must apply a stop loss but you guys are forgetting to mention how player must apply a stop win as well.
Just like how player need to learn how to play stop loss on a target unit, a player must know how to stop win on a target unit.
For some reason, you guys are not seeing the bright side of baccarat and focus too much on negative side of baccarat.
Bright side meaning winning a hand and negative side meaning losing a hand.

Anyways, like how you have stated above, "I included this "play" in your arsenal." This thread is about exactly that. Like the title of the thread, this is a situational betting to set up for next two plays. Instead of making 50:50 match vs casino I am making three hand series vs casino.

Let say, you bet that next hand will be a chop and found out that it's not a chop. Do you have a situational betting selection for the next two hands? Please share with everyone how you bet on situation like this so we can incorporate into our baccarat game and become a better player.

Situation is: pbpbpbp

What are you betting on and why?


How and what are you going to bet?

Thanks!

Originally Posted by helper

I can see that you guys are emphasizing how player must apply a stop loss but you guys are forgetting to mention how player must apply a stop win as well.
Just like how player need to learn how to play stop loss on a target unit, a player must know how to stop win on a target unit.
For some reason, you guys are not seeing the bright side of baccarat and focus too much on negative side of baccarat.
Bright side meaning winning a hand and negative side meaning losing a hand.

Anyways, like how you have stated above, "I included this "play" in your arsenal." This thread is about exactly that. Like the title of the thread, this is a situational betting to set up for next two plays. Instead of making 50:50 match vs casino I am making three hand series vs casino.

Let say, you bet that next hand will be a chop and found out that it's not a chop. Do you have a situational betting selection for the next two hands? Please share with everyone how you bet on situation like this so we can incorporate into our baccarat game and become a better player.

Situation is: pbpbpbp

What are you betting on and why?


How and what are you going to bet?

Thanks!

Don't make a thing too difficult. You have to have set rules for yer anti-streak play. You wait for a certain event, streaks/chops of certian length then bet against that "event" continuing. You decide how many bites at the apple yer gonna take 2, 3, or 4, but stick to yer plan, knowing that long streaks are relatively "rare" but you can get whupped pretty good in a short term, hey hey.

Originally Posted by helper

Situation is: pbpbpbp

What are you betting on and why?


How and what are you going to bet?

Thanks!

I bet on B on 1 unit and if it came out to be P, I bet p to become 3 in a row.
P stop at 2 in a row I lose 2 units. (if I'm on a hit and run mode, I quit this shoe)
Once P goes to 3 in a row, I recovered and stop.
No matter how many P can get in a row, once a B came I bet on B hoping that it will last longer.

Reason: I don't want to be loggerhead with the shoe... if that's the way the shoe wants to flow, let it be and benefit from it.

Everytime you lose a bet, don't you feel jealous of all ppl winning while you are the only one losing? And they didn't risk as much units as you do...
But who hasn't done this before? LOL I'm glad I kept my underwear on that fateful day... Hope you too when it hit you... no offence...

Lots of luck trying to figure what is coming next based on past results. Sure, it has to work sometimes, but it also has not to work just as well. The idea that because it was like that before, now it will be like this is absurd. I spent ten years charting shoes so that I would know what to bet, and I would be the pattern expert. I learned nothing. BS selection is definitely hit or miss, there is no one bet selection that is any better than the other. Sometimes it works, the next time it doesn't. If you want to win, learn how to bet less on the losing hands and more on the winning hands. Overall, you will NEVER win more hands than you will lose. It is about MM, not about some clairvoyant method of picking winners. Save all your wasted time and effort, and concentrate on the real race. love, swami

Originally Posted by swami

Lots of luck trying to figure what is coming next based on past results. Sure, it has to work sometimes, but it also has not to work just as well. The idea that because it was like that before, now it will be like this is absurd. I spent ten years charting shoes so that I would know what to bet, and I would be the pattern expert. I learned nothing. BS selection is definitely hit or miss, there is no one bet selection that is any better than the other. Sometimes it works, the next time it doesn't. If you want to win, learn how to bet less on the losing hands and more on the winning hands. Overall, you will NEVER win more hands than you will lose. It is about MM, not about some clairvoyant method of picking winners. Save all your wasted time and effort, and concentrate on the real race. love, swami

I think it is called TRENDING, people swear by it and WIN all the time playing that way LMAO.

You have learnt plenty in the last 10 yrs, what works and what doesn't, what to focus on and what not too. In terms of bet selection it best not to jump around too much, stick with your plan and put your main focus into the monetary progression you are employing. Design defensive and aggressive tactics, not for the bet selection, rather your staking plan.

Originally Posted by Egalite

I think it is called TRENDING, people swear by it and WIN all the time playing that way LMAO.

You have learnt plenty in the last 10 yrs, what works and what doesn't, what to focus on and what not too. In terms of bet selection it best not to jump around too much, stick with your plan and put your main focus into the monetary progression you are employing. Design defensive and aggressive tactics, not for the bet selection, rather your staking plan.

hi all,

Just to add......as already mentioned, directly or indirectly, by swami and iamsamredman and other members...whether u have 10 months betting experience or 10years experience, as far as BS: bet selection is concerned.....their pick is as good as yours, and your pick is as good as mine....so what are the KEY differences between a good & experienced baccarat player and a newbie???? i know most people will say, experienced player has: better MM, better discipline, be not greedy, better emotional control, set better & more reasonable targets, know when to stop, a strong character etc etc....well, i guess in theory most people are right, they KNOW IT, but whether u can put it into PRACTICE in the casino will make u STAND OUT FROM THE REST....

jus my 5 cents worth of thoughts. Good luck to U!

"We can't change the cards we're dealt, just how we play the hands" : Randy Pausch