Thread: How Would You Play this Shoe

I had a lot of issues with the below shoe. My nemisis is mostly 2's and this had a bunch. I didn't play every hand, finished with a +6 but had one bet of 78 units (a parlayed 39 unit bet, see Sure-Win, bet number 14). I only completed two sets of two wins in a row but I played this in a 100% mechanical fashion. Reading the shoe and modifying my bet selection might have kept me from having to make that 78 unit bet.

How would you have played this?

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Flat betting I ended at -1 unit
Using Oscar's grind I ended at +5 units. Highest bet was 10 units. I was at +12 units but lost 7 units at the end of the shoe with an unresolved series.

There are always many ways that we can play a shoe once the result is out. The challenging part is always deciding what you will do at the table as nobody can tell you the next outcome. However, regardless of the exact amount per unit, I always find it remarkable how many are willing to risk double digit units on a single bet just to recover 1. Personally I do not allow myself to play more than 4 units per bet. So with all due respect to all those who mentioned that they progress up to 20-30 units per bet or losing 100+ units per session is nothing but part of their maths, I think they are either recklessly brave or simply bragging without actual actions On the table.

Originally Posted by Edwincheng

There are always many ways that we can play a shoe once the result is out. The challenging part is always deciding what you will do at the table as nobody can tell you the next outcome. However, regardless of the exact amount per unit, I always find it remarkable how many are willing to risk double digit units on a single bet just to recover 1. Personally I do not allow myself to play more than 4 units per bet. So with all due respect to all those who mentioned that they progress up to 20-30 units per bet or losing 100+ units per session is nothing but part of their maths, I think they are either recklessly brave or simply bragging without actual actions On the table.

Other than the above, how would you have played the shoe?

Pit Boss wins +1 unit gross If played to end. +2 if quit last BBB. But the question is dependent on the method, system, approach one uses. You have to go into every game with guidelines. So - it depends, doesn't it?

A

Betting 78 units is a bit over the top, and it's sure ain't "sure-win" (pun intended).

All depends how you are hitting it prior to seeing the results. Some templates I've used would love that shoe.

First thing for me is to put into a form which is more easily understandable (so I can see what is going on);

BB
P
BB
PPPP
BB
P
BB
PP
B
PPPP
B
P
B
PP
BB
P
B
PPPP
BBBB
PP
B
P
BB
PPP
B
PPP
BB
PP
BB
P
BB
P
B
P
BBB
PP
BBB


Anyway using the bet selection "OLD" with no FLD switch and some money management techniques I've put together, I pulled 24 units from that shoe, "give or take", biggest bet 4 units. Betting 78u like I said is a bit over the top. Remember this, if you have 1u on the table or 89u on the table and have previously lost your last nine bets, your odds never change. Once you appreciate that, making those wild forever escalating bets just ain't worth it, ain't worth the stress either. If two's are your nemesis, I've had worst shoes than this, IMO DBL is the pits, only by using E-Star along with deep pockets can you hope to last the course playing DBL, just my opinion, as I've been there...

Originally Posted by EhtelGaeb

Other than the above, how would you have played the shoe?

1 commOn way that some guys at the local casino I play in is playing the 2nd liners. +7 units flat bet 1 unit

21.85 units net. Highest bet 3 units. If a shoe doesn't go more than 4 I cannot lose it. If it does I can still win but if no more than 4 I don't need MM or a switch - straight thru. How? Wait for repeat of 2 and bet OLD with a NP 1-3. 1's are a side bet which made additional 4.2 units.

A

Please give us your Sure-Win MM progression. Thanks, love, swami

Originally Posted by swami

Please give us your Sure-Win MM progression. Thanks, love, swami

What is wrong with you? Why don't you understand that this is a guessing game?

A

Originally Posted by Egalite

Betting 78 units is a bit over the top, and it's sure ain't "sure-win" (pun intended).

All depends how you are hitting it prior to seeing the results. Some templates I've used would love that shoe.

First thing for me is to put into a form which is more easily understandable (so I can see what is going on);

BB
P
BB
PPPP
BB
P
BB
PP
B
PPPP
B
P
B
PP
BB
P
B
PPPP
BBBB
PP
B
P
BB
PPP
B
PPP
BB
PP
BB
P
BB
P
B
P
BBB
PP
BBB


Anyway using the bet selection "OLD" with no FLD switch and some money management techniques I've put together, I pulled 24 units from that shoe, "give or take", biggest bet 4 units. Betting 78u like I said is a bit over the top. Remember this, if you have 1u on the table or 89u on the table and have previously lost your last nine bets, your odds never change. Once you appreciate that, making those wild forever escalating bets just ain't worth it, ain't worth the stress either. If two's are your nemesis, I've had worst shoes than this, IMO DBL is the pits, only by using E-Star along with deep pockets can you hope to last the course playing DBL, just my opinion, as I've been there...

Well, I'm still wandering in the wilderness here but now the trees are just starting to look like trees. I suspect that Sure Win is not really the way to go and that's why I'm playing on paper. It's still an educational/training process for me. And I do appreciate you humble opinion, ideas and comments.

Originally Posted by swami

Please give us your Sure-Win MM progression. Thanks, love, swami

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123


488 Units total

Win one, parlay the bet, win two in a row and reset.

Originally Posted by Archer

21.85 units net. Highest bet 3 units. If a shoe doesn't go more than 4 I cannot lose it. If it does I can still win but if no more than 4 I don't need MM or a switch - straight thru. How? Wait for repeat of 2 and bet OLD with a NP 1-3. 1's are a side bet which made additional 4.2 units.

A

Appreciate this too. This could take care of my TT's problem.

Originally Posted by Archer

What is wrong with you? Why don't you understand that this is a guessing game?

A

Originally Posted by Archer

21.85 units net. Highest bet 3 units. If a shoe doesn't go more than 4 I cannot lose it. If it does I can still win but if no more than 4 I don't need MM or a switch - straight thru. How? Wait for repeat of 2 and bet OLD with a NP 1-3. 1's are a side bet which made additional 4.2 units.

A

Archer, my friend, I'm afraid I'm not quite understanding your play. You're utilizing a 1-3 neg prog after you see a double P or B, which, it seems to me, would have you winning 1 unit on the 2's and 2 units on the 3's. But you lose 4 units on all runs of 4 (or more). Yet, you state just above that "If a shoe doesn't go more than 4 I cannot lose it". Might you have meant to say "If a shoe doesn't go more than 3 I cannot lose it"? If I've misunderstood your intent, then I apologize in advance.

Originally Posted by Edwincheng

1 commOn way that some guys at the local casino I play in is playing the 2nd liners. +7 units flat bet 1 unit

Good job, Edwincheng, good job. I like your approach to this game, my friend. Play that trend right into your lap. No chasing necessary, for that play will "come to you" if you're patient enough to allow it to. Nice work. Keep it up.

Archer:

Nice win. Question: How would you play the 4 streak. Would you bet that the 4<5 or would you bet that the 4>5 and if you win, bet that the 5>6. If you won those two bets, would you continue betting or stop and wait for the streak to end and resume betting on the next repeat of 2?

Thanks
Banker94

Originally Posted by EhtelGaeb

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488 Units total

Win one, parlay the bet, win two in a row and reset.

The "sure-win" progression I am aware of, instead of betting 79u at step 15, you bet 69 units. The problem with it, besides the cost/risk, is that, say for example at step 14, you are 152 units in the hole, you make a next bet of 52 units, win the bet, so now you are 100 units in the hole, rather than remove anything from that win, you parlay the entire win for a 4 unit profit, less Banker tax (probably no profit at all, once you factor in the B tax)!!! Doesn't seem worth it does it?

There is also a variation of "Sure-Win" which included a "Slide" option, once you hit the top end, just in case you struggle with back to back wins, it's on GG..

A betting option would be to bet P only, the longest run of single P's usually max's out at 7 or 8.

A Star / Fibonacci progression will give you the same depth, without sweating on grabbing back to back wins.

Originally Posted by Banker94

Archer:

Nice win. Question: How would you play the 4 streak. Would you bet that the 4<5 or would you bet that the 4>5 and if you win, bet that the 5>6. If you won those two bets, would you continue betting or stop and wait for the streak to end and resume betting on the next repeat of 2?

Thanks
Banker94

Start over and wait for the next repeat. You are going to either win 1 unit or lose 6 units After that gotta have a plan. Stop loss/win; change modes change betting. MM.

A


The nice thing about this method is it's simplicity. By eliminating the 1's the shoe becomes clear as to what is going to kill you.

Thanks......

I use Sure Win because I look at it like "I only have to win 2 in a row in 18 hands. Surely I can do that!"

And you're right again. Mistyped. Should be:

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Originally Posted by Archer

The nice thing about this method is it's simplicity. By eliminating the 1's the shoe becomes clear as to what is going to kill you.

Amazing advice, doesn't make sense, adds no value at all. Knowing what will kill you is a physiological thing, doesn't prevent it happening, doesn't mean you can circumvent it either, ditto for switching virtual.


Let's see what can really happen (refer attachment), betting the opposite and stopping at a 4 streak. Disregarding the first bet (which can swing either way Win or Lose), we have 24 potential winning bets bet and 24 potential losing bets. Doesn't matter if one stops at a 5 streak, things still balance out, 50/50.

Via the use of "Binary Tables", it is fairly easy to see why all bet selections (including UnBal v's Bal) when you take into consideration actual bets placed, everything resolves to a 50/50 state. Reverse the thing to FLD, same outcome 50/50. Wait for a two streak then bet the opposite, 50/50 no matter when you decide to apply the brakes, wait for three or four streak, still resolves to a potential 50/50 state.

Which is why you can never expect to win consistently flat-betting, as soon as you introduce any kind of negative progression, irrespective how shallow you make it, you have to deal with very short term results, which then excludes mid~long term expected streak distribution (more 1's, 2's and 3's than 4's etc). There is no doubt about it in my mind, MM is the key.


Everybody reading this will encounter at some stage during their table action any (all) of the following runs;

BBBBBB, PPPPPP, PBPBPB, BPBPBP and the like, you have simply got to maximise what you take from such runs.

If you wait for them (guessing/trending/does it look right) there is a good chance you will miss them, respond to late. You have to be on them from at least the second decision and at some stage after a win or wins, up the ante without squandering too much from prior wins, because you will fail more often than succeed, however the failures shouldn't risk sending you to the wall, simply ride things out, hold your own and exploit the above type of runs when they present themselves.

My advice is stop going around in circles regarding bet selection, there is no ultimate answer, be it trending, mechanical, switching, templates, statistical expectation or whatever, simply find something you are comfortable with and stick with it, if you want to bring $2500 and play a $5 table with a 15 step prog', well if that's your bag, I wish you the best of luck, you're gonna need it, if you don't bust within a month the stress will eat you up.

Originally Posted by Banker94

Thanks......

Keep in mind something that should be academic. As Egalite mentioned in this thread we cannot win back losses with single unit wins after losing multiple unit wins. The best we will do in this game is beak even and lose to the HA or if betting P only we will lose more hands then win. Therefore we MUST raise our bet when we are in a negative position. A million ways to do this if you want to keep unit bets small.
1. Start off flat betting 1 unit on the 2<2 only. If you start losing then try a NegProg 123 on 2<2 only. If you start winning then expand your bet to 3<3, etc. IOW, try to use won units to press.
2. You could also reverse the Prog to 321 instead of 123. So bet 3 or 2 units on 2<2 and if lose or win drop the bet 1 or 2 units on 3<3.
3. Use the standard 11111, 22222, 33333 for a little more risk and go up or down based on how well or poor you are doing - MM.

IMO, the most effective way to hold your own or win this game is to lock up after every win. Even if a small amount. Win 1 unit, bet 1/2 unit next time. You can always press with winnings using a Fib or some other prog that will preserve your win but really make a kill when you win a bunch in a row.

Here is a betting scheme that is awfully slow and tiresome but can be very useful in winning situations, particulalry for grinders. And you can use it with this method with a short bankroll.

Charles Guetting Progression Applied to Baccarat

Hope this helps, Archer

Egalite. First, stop with the condescending remarks will you please? Second, I think everyone knows that this is a 50-50 guessing game. If anyone disagrees with that perhaps they would like to chime in and explain differently. That would be an interesting discussion.

I don't think there is any need to keep posting binary tables. Well, maybe once in awhile just for the new people. The only thing you and I disagree about is trending. My point is very logical. Betting the trend cannot possibly hurt for the very reasons you explain. Therefore it might help in those times when the shoe does conform to your selection style. Some people are lucky. (sidebar: My definition of Variance is luck - I don't have a clue what Gr8 speaks of when he talks of "my variances." I wish someone would explain it to me.)The rest is MM and betting. So why not simply outline or make suggestions on how you prefer to handle MM?

The only reason that I am talking about this bet selection is because it is uncomplicated and can serve to get people who haven't played a lot to understand MM and betting without losing their shirt.

Archer

Originally Posted by EhtelGaeb

I had a lot of issues with the below shoe. My nemisis is mostly 2's and this had a bunch. I didn't play every hand, finished with a +6 but had one bet of 78 units (a parlayed 39 unit bet, see Sure-Win, bet number 14). I only completed two sets of two wins in a row but I played this in a 100% mechanical fashion. Reading the shoe and modifying my bet selection might have kept me from having to make that 78 unit bet.

How would you have played this?

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I just signed on to BF to ask members to submit data for analysis - I was thinking in terms of thousands of shoes - and this was the first post I found. I have visited BF as a guest from time to time, and find it interesting how often members LOL at the "crazy" notion of betting large amounts "to win just one unit" (or words to that effect). Respectfully, you're not risking a large bet to win just one unit - you're aiming to recover all your prior losses in a fraction of the time it took you to lose the money. It's only crazy when you lose - and if you keep doing it, the house edge will eventually take a break just long enough to put you back in profit. I'm not selling anything here, just offering a little free advice based upon years of Nevada play and a few thousand hours of off-table research. Here's what my method would have produced from the 77-bet shoe posted above:

BF Test01.jpg

If this is of interest, I'll be happy to explain what isn't obvious from the screen shot above.

Sorry, should have posted this the first time...

BF Test01 (Bets).jpg

This was, in fact, a very friendly shoe - no house edge. The series that was left dangling "woulda" recovered early in the next shoe.

Seth T.

Originally Posted by Sethbets

I just signed on to BF to ask members to submit data for analysis - I was thinking in terms of thousands of shoes - and this was the first post I found. I have visited BF as a guest from time to time, and find it interesting how often members LOL at the "crazy" notion of betting large amounts "to win just one unit" (or words to that effect). Respectfully, you're not risking a large bet to win just one unit - you're aiming to recover all your prior losses in a fraction of the time it took you to lose the money. It's only crazy when you lose - and if you keep doing it, the house edge will eventually take a break just long enough to put you back in profit. I'm not selling anything here, just offering a little free advice based upon years of Nevada play and a few thousand hours of off-table research. Here's what my method would have produced from the 77-bet shoe posted above:

BF Test01.jpg

If this is of interest, I'll be happy to explain what isn't obvious from the screen shot above.

Go ahead Seth and explain. Perhaps starting a new thread to so that? The screen shot is difficult for me to see clearly and I cannot increase the size plus it seems to be cut off at the bottom.

Your point of recouping losses with big bets is well taken. What amount of data are you seeking. After years of play you must already have thousands of shoes. You might want to contact ImSpirit He has thousands of shoes which were contributed by players and has done extensive method testing.

Archer

I'm new to this forum and already feel I should have signed up years ago. Blackjack's my game, and since I rejected Thorp's methods 30 years ago and counting is all BJ forums ever discuss, I never became addicted to online discussions. First, thanks for the link to ImSpirit. Looks like he and I have been riding the same merry-go-round for a very long time! Next: screenshots. You should be able to read the two I have posted so far if you save them locally, then expand them. You'll then be able to read the betting method. I cut the first screen shot off below the summary cells and the charts. That's all the info that matters. I posted bets for the 77-round shoe after my first post. You'll see the betting method, as I said, but here's more:

After an opening win in a new series, bet 2x, and after subsequent wins in a new series, bet 1.5x rounded up in multiples of your minimum until $25 then in $25 increments (5,10,15,25,50,75,125,200,300). If the winning streak ends before 8 wins, repeat the bet after a loss. If bet 9 loses, quit the series and fall back to a minimum (quitting well ahead).

After an opening loss in a new series, bet 5x, then 2x after the next two losses, then halve your bets until a win (-5,-25,-50,-100,-50,-25,-15,-10,-5). After a mid-series win, bet your loss to date (LTD) PLUS your preferred win target (I set mine at $10 for my recent Zumma/Jones tests). If the required bet exceeds the table limit, find a richer table. If you can't do that, bet the max allowed if you don't have the opportunity to continue the series per the rules (I'm in Nevada, so I have a lot more options than many players!). If your turnaround attempt fails, repeat the bet until the next win, then bet LTD+ again.

Bets can get high, but more often than not, the wider your betting spread, the lower your average bet at the end of play. That's because if your max is low, you'll keep betting it until you recover your losses (which you mostly won't!). If you have the resources to bet high at the right time, you'll recover much faster, and keep dropping back to the min for a new series. Example: In my Zumma trial (185,000 rounds plus) total action at a 1-5,000 spread was just fractionally more than spreading 1-10, the big difference being that 1-5,000 was an overall winner and 1-10 crashed and burned.

Here are the numbers:

All Zumma Spreads.JPG

Keep winning!
Seth T.

To archer and egalite,

I think we all agree that unless we know the arrangement Of the cards, every bet is even chance. Since there is no other basis to place our bets, strategies like trending, fld, old and variance are merely an imaginary yardstick to form our basis of placing our bets in hope that they would conform to the averaging norm in the long run as well as hedging our risks by limiting our number of hands.

Mm is an important aspect of the game but cannot be the only consideration. Anybody playing this game would have a basis to their decision regardless of what strategy we adopt.

Both of you had your success on the table with the strategies you chose and I am sure have your experience to decide to play the game the way you play. as such I think it will be fruitless for both of you to further debate the merits of your methods.

You have been great contributors on this board and it would be a shame that either 1 should further your differences that result in deeper disputes.

Chill and cheers

Edwin

Originally Posted by Sethbets

I just signed on to BF to ask members to submit data for analysis - I was thinking in terms of thousands of shoes - and this was the first post I found. I have visited BF as a guest from time to time, and find it interesting how often members LOL at the "crazy" notion of betting large amounts "to win just one unit" (or words to that effect). Respectfully, you're not risking a large bet to win just one unit - you're aiming to recover all your prior losses in a fraction of the time it took you to lose the money. It's only crazy when you lose - and if you keep doing it, the house edge will eventually take a break just long enough to put you back in profit. I'm not selling anything here, just offering a little free advice based upon years of Nevada play and a few thousand hours of off-table research. Here's what my method would have produced from the 77-bet shoe posted above:BF Test01.jpgIf this is of interest, I'll be happy to explain what isn't obvious from the screen shot above.

There is nothing "crazy' about using a deep negative progression. I know cats usin multi-step marty progressions to win regular at the dice table. And playin star as written may be the best style goin, hey hey.