Thread: Variance

Please share any comments concerning this paramount aspect of the game. T101

AttchVariance 9232011.pdf

theraphy101

could you share your thoughts regarding your attachment, thanks

Why do the figures stop at -5, +5?

Let's say you like betting the double Banker, never seen six, seven, eight single bankers in a row? My guess if variance was an entity of any use, nobody would ever lose eight or more bets in a row and certainly not if we stopped betting or came back the following week, which we know makes no difference in games of mutually exclusive decisions.

Originally Posted by grassshopper

theraphy101

could you share your thoughts regarding your attachment, thanks

I am fishing for comments concerning Variance. It is the most important aspect of the game. To my knowledge there has been little discussion save it be Gr8player, Egalite, and Dimenoscor, and then only vague mention. The attachment is merely a sample of Variance showing the Positive and Negative cycles. Each can be user friendly or system killers. This is basic as it gets. How to beat the Variance. T101

Originally Posted by Egalite

Why do the figures stop at -5, +5?

Let's say you like betting the double Banker, never seen six, seven, eight single bankers in a row? My guess if variance was an entity of any use, nobody would ever lose eight or more bets in a row and certainly not if we stopped betting or came back the following week, which we know makes no difference in games of mutually exclusive decisions.

Egalite: Your comment is especially surprising given your knowledge of the game. Not what I would have expected from you. T101

I don't think you can apply it, bet selection~wise or money management~wise and definitely not in the short term. To me it would be like expecting equal distribution of no matter what, individual sides, 3 and 4 hand combinations, down-turns then up-turns, it doesn't always happen that way. Some of these mathematical terms (which there are many) can't be relied upon within a session or sessions.

Egalite, don't mean to target your play, but I would rather have this discussion with you than anyone else on the Forum. Your Post's dealing with a Session often describe having to deal with a downturn and the subsequent turnaround after several hours/shoes. Quite often you speak of Variance and the importance of knowing when to switch your BS/MM. So, when you speak of Variance are you simply keeping track of a Negative Variance, then changing your Strategy to compensate for units lost? T101

101 - I never mention variance, that's Walter's belief, wasn't aware of the term until he banged on about it, it is not something I use. The only reason I change tact is because what I'm doin' wasn't working, it's caused an unsustainable draw-down, now I have to do something else to recoup, usually accompanied by a different MM strategy, i.e Labby to a Fib. Can't say I've tracked negative variance much, other than expecting a really good shoe after two bad ones, when using a trigger based method, but really that is gamblers fallacy as results are random and just because I hit a few "30 percenters", doesn't mean I can't hit a third.

So how can we use this to our advantage? Wait for a few bad shoes before playing, increase the unit value for the third shoe, quit? When you analyse the rationale behind all three, none of them make sense. When the game consists of independent trials, the truth is, expectation along with testing and statistics count for little and it is possible to receive little for many shoes and back to back sessions. This is why it is possible to win many "many" sessions on the bounce, then after a month get your ass handed to you on a plate a few times, which leaves you wondering how the hell you won in the first place.

Variance - The difference between an expected and actual result, how can anything be expected in a game of independent trials where each outcome is 50/50. The most obvious being; there shall be more bankers wins, along with, there shall be more singles and doubles than any other streak length. Applicable to the long term, which is something nobody can define, nor is sustainable by most bankrolls.

Variance Shoe 2.pdfVariance Shoe 2.pdfVariance Shoe 2.pdf

Originally Posted by Egalite

So how can we use this to our advantage? Wait for a few bad shoes before playing, increase the unit value for the third shoe, quit? When you analyse the rationale behind all three, none of them make sense.

So, what if instead of playing OLD, FLD, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, we play FTV? Follow The Variance. The attachment says it all. T101

Originally Posted by Therapy101

So, what if instead of playing OLD, FLD, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, we play FTV? Follow The Variance. The attachment says it all. T101

I thought that Gr8 idea of variance was patterns that were "due" since they had been scarce but this just a guess since he never actually said as far as I know.

FTV ?? We never know what it will be but we do know that we cannot lose forever. What you show is what Stetson Bailey termed "drift." It's our job to decide how far to go with our "recovery" bets. There are different ways to design depending on bankroll and risk level of course. I agree with Bailey that in general we should lock up a % after a win and increase out bets after a loss. I am still preferring bet placements based on trend though. :-)

A

Variance Shoe #2.pdf

Originally Posted by Archer

I thought that Gr8 idea of variance was patterns that were "due" since they had been scarce but this just a guess since he never actually said as far as I know.

FTV ?? We never know what it will be but we do know that we cannot lose forever. What you show is what Stetson Bailey termed "drift." It's our job to decide how far to go with our "recovery" bets. There are different ways to design depending on bankroll and risk level of course. I agree with Bailey that in general we should lock up a % after a win and increase out bets after a loss. I am still preferring bet placements based on trend though. :-)

A

Hi Archer. No, we never know what the Variance will be. Take this next shoe for example: Notice how the shoe goes Negative with the first decision. The Variance is Negative, so we "Follow The Negative Variance". This would be Flat Betting. Not all shoes are this profitable, some more, some less. By following the Variance and Flat Betting, I believe this is a powerhouse method. T101

FTV contentious. What you going to track, 3's over 2's, 4's over 3's, one side over the other, the absence of something, the non-continuation of something?

The only one I've ever used (when I can remember to do so) is the instance of singles for one side, but if your not losing at the time, why change. I prefer to not try and second guess the shoe, because to do so you are applying flawed human logic to an entity that has no awareness, besides it's too frustrating when your wrong.

Just for the record, Izak brought out some IBS system some time ago and used some "white van" analogy to describe the bet selection, basically when you have seen something a few times, don't expect to see the same thing at the next trigger interval. I suppose that could also be described as variance, but hey if the entity has no awareness, then it can't possibly apply, that's my view anyway (flawed logic).

Egalite, not sure I follow your logic here. Basically, if for example, we are betting the Positive Variance to be "Banker", and the Negative to be Player, we don't care how the shoe is constructed, we are simply following the Variance every decision. It matters not that the shoe goes totally "Player" or "Banker" because we are
on it. To me this is superior to FLD because for one thing, it breaks even on chops. A streak of Bankers followed by one Player, then back to Banker loses two units
whereas FTV breaks even. T101

Variance Shoe Win Lose.pdf Perhaps this will make my point more clearly. T101

101 - What exactly are you tracking? Which side is ahead? Or B = + and P = - ??

Can can post a small shoe example...

BBB
P
BBB (add comments as required)

Yeah, I have looked at this a couple of times. I guess I am just not understanding what you are following as relates to the game. How are you measuring whether the V is + or -

A

Variance Shoe #3.pdf Archer, Egalite: Bet Selection is of your choosing. Egalite, you posted recently a shoe you felt was so Negative you were disgusted. This shoe would be a good candidate for FTV. Unlike Gr8player who prefers a tight Variance, FTV shines even brighter when the Variance is high. So again, the Bet Selection is open, but the best will provide a large Variance. I'm including an attachment that will hopefully make this Strategy clear. The Bet Selection is determined by the 1st decision. If
a Banker is 1st decision, 2nd bet is placed on Banker because at that point the Variance is a +1. Opposite if 1st is Player. As the shoe progresses, the Variance
can alternate Positive to Negative and back again to Positive. When the Variance is Positive, we bet Banker. When Negative, bet Player. We've experienced
betting Banker/Player only to have the shoe go large against our chosen side. Using FTV, no matter which side goes large, we are right there. Additionally, Chops, 2's, 3's, 4's etc, break even. A streak, whether Neg or Pos is paydirt on the upside. Naturally, a streak of 10 Players followed by a streak of 10 Bankers
cancell each other. Another feature I like is we are not limited in the number of units we can win. T101

So basically you follow the first side to win and remain betting that side until the other side gets ahead by a certain point, then switch the betting sides and I guess we are flat betting (you would have to after viewing those loss streaks). Is this correct?

Variance Shoe #4.pdf Yeah Egalite, that's about it. Another advantage I didn't touch on is you don't have to sweat a large drawdown. No matter what your Bet Selection, there is the inevitable drawdown. But when you FTV, you are taking the sweet ride. As for switching sides, I switch whenever the Variance changes. One decision on Pos or Neg, I'm on it. I'm including a shoe showing a tight Variance until about 2/3 into the shoe until the Variance loosens up. It becomes obvious the advantage of a high Variance. T101

In your sample it seems you bet P the whole shoe and did NOT bet B when the V went negative. Yes?

A

Betting one side (until the other gets ahead) reminds me of UnBal. Pretty much works on the same principal, except you are breaking the shoe up into chunks.

Okay, question, how would you run this monitoring OLD v's FLD? As FLD can produce many wins within in the streak?

EG

P
B (OLD = +1
PPPPPP (OLD = +2, FLD = +1 or +5??)

My suggestion, as many shoes will end close to balanced, is that you would have to set a win target per shoe and quit when you reach that target, otherwise you risk as the shoe closes in towards balance, you will forfeit prior $$ highs and end close to even.

In your sample it seems you bet P the whole shoe and did NOT bet B when the V went negative. Yes?

There was a switch and Banker wins. 101 what is the count criteria for making a switch?

Originally Posted by Archer

In your sample it seems you bet P the whole shoe and did NOT bet B when the V went negative. Yes?

A

Actually Archer, I bet Player at the outset because the 1st decision was Player. Therefore the Variance was Negative. Soon as the first Banker decision went Positive, I switched to betting Banker. T101

Originally Posted by Egalite

Okay, question, how would you run this monitoring OLD v's FLD? As FLD can produce many wins within in the streak?

Using FLD, if you had three consecutive wins, you would have a Pos 3. (The 1st win establishes a Pos Variance). As your wins continue, your Variance
continues to be Positive. When losses outnumber wins, the Variance changes to Negative, you would then bet against FLD, betting it will take a healthy downturn. I would question why you would want to use FLD when FTV has so many obvious advantages. The only negative is after a winning streak, when you give back what you just won. I'm sure you could take advantage of a streak followed by a streak, betting opposite for a double streak win. T101

Originally Posted by Therapy101

why you would want to use FLD when FTV has so many obvious advantages.

You may have misunderstood, I was referring to the variance of FLD v's OLD. So you are still using FTV, FTV is determining whether to bet OLD or FLD.


Here is a little example;

B
P (OLD +1 FTV)
B (OLD +2 FTV)
P (OLD +3 FTV)
B (OLD +4 FTV) B (FTV +3) BBB (FTV 0) BBB (FTV -3, switch to FLD) BBB (WWW FTV = -6)

I take it this is what you had in mind?

Originally Posted by Egalite

You may have misunderstood, I was referring to the variance of FLD v's OLD. So you are still using FTV, FTV is determining whether to bet OLD or FLD.


Here is a little example;

B
P (OLD +1 FTV)
B (OLD +2 FTV)
P (OLD +3 FTV)
B (OLD +4 FTV) B (FTV +3) BBB (FTV 0) BBB (FTV -3, switch to FLD) BBB (WWW FTV = -6)

I take it this is what you had in mind?

Yes Egalite. Am sending an attachment, hope this will make it clear to both of us. T101 Variance 9242011.pdf

Okay I've got it, I can picture a few the issues here. Mainly when the variance-o-meter is high on one side then a lengthy opposite happens, it will take too long to adjust. However I think this is best suited to somebody like LOTI to test, flat betting of course.

Nice thread...

Originally Posted by Egalite

Okay I've got it, I can picture a few the issues here. Mainly when the variance-o-meter is high on one side then a lengthy opposite happens, it will take too long to adjust. However I think this is best suited to somebody like LOTI to test, flat betting of course.

Nice thread...

I believe that is the only Achilese Heel. However, please note if a lenghty Positive swing is encountered, stop betting and take your profit. One thing is a certainty, we almost always experience a downturn. FTV keeps you in the game with little fear of losing your Bankroll. T101

Hello everyone, First timer here. Nice thread.
"when the variance-o-meter is high on one side then a lengthy opposite happens, it will take too long to adjust."
You can easily lock in the profit by resetting the V-O meter to zero and start over, just my 2 cents.

goez, what a brilliant suggestion. So glad you came along to share that with us. Pure genius. Makes FTV more outstanding. Thank you. T101

Originally Posted by Therapy101

I believe that is the only Achilese Heel. However, please note if a lenghty Positive swing is encountered, stop betting and take your profit.

That's what I said above, because as you say the downturn is inevitable as many shoes return to a balanced state, no matter the bet selection, most resolve to a 50/50 state anyway.

FTV keeps you in the game with little fear of losing your Bankroll. T101

That's not due to FTV, it's due to flat betting.

"when the variance-o-meter is high on one side then a lengthy opposite happens, it will take too long to adjust."
You can easily lock in the profit by resetting the V-O meter to zero and start over, just my 2 cents.

Nice suggestion, or even consider restarting back to zero each time you hit +4 or +6, this way you might be able to avoid all turnarounds.

101 - do you have a specific bet selection in mind? As I can see this being a pain in the ass for everything other than betting one side only. IF somebody where to use this FTV switching between FLD and OLD, I personally would rather switch using the second and third lines rather than any FTV count, also you run into issues such as placing emphasis on prior results, when in reality non-exists. Hmmm, "one side only" seems the best fit, also by doing it this way, with any long streaks you might be on them from decision one (bonus) if you continually reset, then you could incorporate rules such as, after X number of consecutive wins, Parlay or part Parlay, now you are exploiting the streaks (double bonus).