Thread: Just one unit per day, possible?

Hi all, is it possible to win just one unit each day?
once 1st hand hit it, stop...call it a day, come back tomrw...
If 1st hand lose, carry on with bets till +1...

Stop loss -6 units , just to make +1 unit....

Hope u guys can input your opinions such as bet selection / mm..
I hope to get some fresh idea as currently I am trying some methods
but still not very convincing of my bet selection.

The reason for this strategy is:

1. Not to spend longer time in casino
2. If for 30 days,( 50/50 ) 1st hand win is 15 days that is 15 units.
Out of another 15 days , which need to fight, let's assume 12 days win = 12 units.
3 days loss= (3x6) - 18 units.
For 1 month (30 days) still profit of +9

now the question is how can we minimise the no. of day loss(-6)??

Hope to recv some positive feedback...

Regards.

Really depends what 1 unit is... and what your goal is..

Are you going to be playing for career money or just spare change?
1 unit = $25? $100? $200? $1000?


I just started playing a few weeks ago but everytime I sit at a table right now my unit goal is 5.. $100/unit..

My goal is to do what you say, just using my own bs "system".. 1 unit will = $500... Too me that's worth it.

How many units is your bank roll?

My goal is 4 units per day with 2 wins, double the first 1 units win, Second win with 4 units. If lose, 20 units bank roll for recovery. I patiently wait for repeat 2nd line and FLD bet. I record Banker and Player separately, this make it easier to see the individual pattern and sequence.


Kavan

I honestly don't think that a 1 unit win per day is possible.

The reason is that when you do win the first bet, you are finished for the day.

However in my experience it is very easy to lose 6 bets in a row, no matter what bet selection you use. As Egalite said above, what will you do then?

So in effect you are cutting your wins and running your losses, which is a losing money management system.

Good luck but from my experience I don't think it's a winning strategy.

Baccarat is not quite as simple as you are suggesting.

The real key is to maximize your wins while minimizing your losses. Far harder to do than it would seem. Human nature (or gambling nature) makes people get cautious when they are winning and reckless when they are losing. Do the opposite of this and profit.

By leaving after 1 unit, you are always minimizing your wins. But you are allowing your losses to go to -6. And I am assuming you are flat betting the whole time. I like having some sort of negative progression, even a mild one. And a 6 unit bankroll is just too small for me.

Originally Posted by LoserNoMore

The real key is to maximize your wins while minimizing your losses

That is an interesting point. Unfortunately using too many Parlay's, or waiting for that golden moment also has it's issues.

Thinking further about this thread, the answer is definite NO from me. I've had sessions, lost a few bets and never recouped.

This is a simple 'Standing' Strategy (One bet on each new shoe).

If first hand out shoe is B then bet B and stop
If first hand out shoe is P then bet P and stop
(ignore Ties)

Win or lose stop betting and wait for another new shoe.

Can press on a win, so if win add 1 unit to bet on next shoe, up to limit of 6 units' bet.
On loss, return to 1 unit bet.

(Against Zummas +154.55 units so not great but OK.)

One bet per shoe / per hour? Sounds brilliant.

Yes, if in a hurry, or as opening gambit!
Note: only tested 1600 bets. Test against own casino data.

Originally Posted by rainbowfree

Hi all, is it possible to win just one unit each day?
Stop loss -6 units , just to make +1 unit....


Regards.

No. Not forever.
Maybe in a short lifetime of play.

Your 6 unit bankroll for a minimum 1 unit bet and a 1 unit win goal is way over betting your bankroll and the win goal is too high for the bankroll.
At best you have an ~85% average chance of success if you attempted to do this.

Player example: win goal $10
Data from a Risk of Ruin spreadsheet.

Code:

bank       bet     % of bank   win goal $10    Ruin
$60.00    $10.00    16.67%    84.518%    15.482%
$60.00    $20.00    33.33%    85.123%    14.877%
$60.00    $30.00    50.00%    85.321%    14.679%
$60.00    $40.00    66.67%    85.420%    14.580%
$60.00    $50.00    83.33%    85.479%    14.521%
$60.00    $60.00    100.00%   85.519%    14.481%

Banker example: win goal $10

Code:

bank        bet     % of bank   win goal $10    Ruin
$60.00      $10.00    16.67%    85.302%      14.698%
$60.00      $20.00    33.33%    85.821%      14.179%
$60.00      $30.00    50.00%    85.992%      14.008%
$60.00      $40.00    66.67%    86.077%      13.923%
$60.00      $50.00    83.33%    86.128%      13.872%
$60.00      $60.00    100.00%    86.162%      13.838%

From the data above,
The more one bets as a percentage of the bankroll actually does really nothing to increase the win goal rate or lower the risk of ruin rate (bust).

Here is another way to look at this.
For Player wagers:
With your number ratios and my $10 bets, you could win, on average, ~85 out of 100 sessions, $10


($850) and lose 15 times your $60 bankroll. (-$900). That does not look to satisfy your win goal for many sessions.
Now,
If you could average, through bet selection and/or MM, ~86 wins out of 100 sessions consistently -- easier said than done -- ($860), 14 loss (-840) it now starts to look more promising. or... ~87 out of 100 sessions consistently -- again, easier said than done -- ($870), 13 loss (-780), now we are talking.


But,
If you only win 84 out of 100 sessions -- much easier to do without even trying -- ($840) wins, 16 loss (-960) it looks way less promising for a net loss of -$120.

For Banker wagers:
With your number ratios and my $10 bets, you could win, on average, ~86 out of 100 sessions, $9.50 ($817) and lose 14 times you $60. (-$840). That does not look to satisfy your win goal for many sessions.

Now,
If you could average, through bet selection and/or MM, ~87 out of 100 sessions consistently -- easier said than done -- ($826.50), 13 loss (-$780) it now starts to look more promising. or... ~88 wins out of 100 sessions consistently -- again, easier said than done -- ($836), 12 loss (-$720),
now we are talking.

But,
If you only win 85 out of 100 sessions betting for Banker only -- much easier to do without even
trying -- ($807.50) wins, 15 loss (-$900) it looks way less promising for a net loss of -$92.50.
Of course,
I have also over simplified this by not showing how to use bet selection and MM to increase the win rate or net profits from a win.
I also have not mentioned that if you can NOT be more successful in upping the win rate even by a little bit, the downside is you now increase the bust rate per session(s) and now you will need more wins or $$ wins to even make a one unit profit.

Baccarat is a hard game to win consistently at since the banker and player bets have such low variance, meaning the longer one bets for either one, the house edge for each bet --- how much you
are being short changed-- starts to add up against you over all the possible outcomes that you can see.
Again, The more bets you make, the higher your win rate or $$ wins need to be in order to overcome the house edge or the short changing that is going on.
house edge example:
Say you make 1 banker bet (average 1 unit) each day for 40 years...
14,600 lifetime banker wagers: on average 1 in 14 (7.29%) Bac players will be expected show a profit of a minimum $16 ($10 unit wager) from just luck alone.
Not a very good ratio. It shows you better increase your win rate some how to be one of those 14 Bac players making that many banker bets.

Say you now make 10 banker bets (average 1 unit) each day for 40 years...
146,000 lifetime banker wagers: on average 1 in 432,332 Bac players will be expected show a profit of a minimum $4 ($10 unit wager) from just luck alone.
Not a good ratio at all. It shows you better,well, one must increase your win rate somehow to be one of those 432,332 Bac players making that many banker bets.


It gets worse for the Player bet.
Say you make 1 player bet (average 1 unit) each day for 40 years...
14,600 lifetime player wagers: on average 1 in 21 (4.87%) Bac players will be expected show a profit of a minimum $20 ($10 unit wager)
Again, Not a good ratio. It shows you better increase your win rate some how to be one of those 21 Bac players making that many player bets.

Say you now make 10 player bets (average 1 unit) each day for 40 years...
146,000 lifetime player wagers: on average 1 in 11,081,651 Bac players will be expected show a profit of a minimum $20 ($10 unit wager)
Not a good ratio at all. It shows you better increase your win rate some how to be one of those 11,081,651 Bac players making that many player bets.

This is the effect of the house edge on the probability of coming out ahead as the number of trials increase. The casino is most always in the long run, millions of wagers per month where a single
player could not even come close to those type of same numbers, except for longer and lifetime play.

If there was NO house edge, meaning the casinos would be forced to make their $$$s elsewhere, room rates, food and entertainment, maybe legalized prostitution, just to name a few, about 1 in 2 Bac players would show a profit betting on banker or player at 1 million lifetime bets or at any number
of bets for that matter.

Code:

bet        pays         fair                 difference
banker    $0.95     $0.973068289        $-0.023068289
player    $1        $1.027677103        $-0.027677103

The short change due to house edge.
A player bet should pay $1.028 per $1 bet and the Banker pay $0.973 per $1 bet.

To summarize. A Baccarat player must increase his win rate and/or the $$$ wins over the $$$ losses in order to win consistently over a lifetime worth of play.

IF your method of play is to "always do this and always do that", your chances of comong out ahead at any point keeps getting smaller and smaller and smaller.

hi all, thanks for your reply & input. I do agree with some of reply here
that by just winning one unit to risk 6 units are not worth to do so. However,
what my idea is to make 1 unit consistently....if 6 units ae too small, I may
consider to increase it higher... BUt I need a real good bet selection that
could increase the odd.... By just making 1 unit daily...Can any of bros here can
suggest one?

Originally Posted by rainbowfree

hi all, thanks for your reply & input. I do agree with some of reply here
that by just winning one unit to risk 6 units are not worth to do so. However,
what my idea is to make 1 unit consistently....if 6 units ae too small, I may
consider to increase it higher... BUt I need a real good bet selection that
could increase the odd.... By just making 1 unit daily...Can any of bros here can
suggest one?

Just ONE real good bet selection will not be enough.

You need many.
How many? as many as you can track and use accurately.

Why? No static betting, MM system will EVER produce enough wins to over come the losses the longer you play because the losing sequences are always changing.
Make your methods dynamic also.
Be creative in your thinking. Do not always do the same thing over and over again.
My ideas? I have not found good ones, yet, just to win 1 unit consistently and keep the losses at a minimum to show profits.

Just increasing the bankroll will NOT guarantee a 1 unit win also.
It does increase the win rate but at the same time the max $$$ to be lost and need to overcome with larger wins.
It is a fine balancing act.

12 units bankroll
Risk of ruin 8.467%
Prob of success 91.53%

24 units bankroll
Risk of ruin 5.036% (1 out of 20 sessions)
Prob of success 94.964%

50 units bankroll
Risk of ruin 3.233% (1 out of 32 sessions)
Prob of success 96.767%

100 units bankroll
Risk of ruin 2.520% (1 out of 40 sessions)
Prob of success 97.48%

Hi rainbowfree, yes it's possible to win 1 unit a day, but most of us are greedy or never wants to leave on the 1st game with a win after taking all the trouble travelling to the casino. To be able to succeed, one really has to be very very firm.

Regards,

Pitbull

Hi Pitbull, I will be contented if every day I can profit just 1 unit
even on the 1st hand as my per unit per hand could be 500 or more.
Until I am convince with my bet selection then I would proceed with
such plan of just gaining 1 unit/day.

Btw, u frequent the mbs or rws?

Thought of using Bryan's method ( bet banker only & his trigger).
Has anyone in this forum using his trigger with great success?

Hi rainbowfree, I've paid annual levy to rws, so is rws for me. I personally fell that the levy we paid should allow us to both ir's. Seems unfair to restrict us to only one ir. How about you, rws or mbs?

All the best,

Pitbull

Hi pitbull, I only frequent to rws .. Same here brought the annual
levy...mbs carpark too exp. wherelse rws is free...

So u go around or station on table?

I would say it is indeed possible to capture one unit profit per day, hey hey.

Originally Posted by soxfan

I would say it is indeed possible to capture one unit profit per day, hey hey.

Yeah but risking 6 units to make 1?

Hi rainbowfre, I do both, if the table is good, I'll stay, otherwise, I;ll go hunting. I have just recently tried a way to predict the game, yesterday was good, won 12 units. Will keep on testing for more days to see whether it can really work.

All the best,

Pitbull

Hi rainbowfree, I was in the rws at 2.30 pm. Tested my prediction again. Highest won was 11 units, tried to better yesterday's result, but was unable to, so finally hit the exit at 5.00 pm with 9 units gain. I must keep on trying until it is 80-90% sure before I can really let anybody in, cause there were other predictions which I used only lasted for about a week to ten days then lose back all with interest in 1 or 2 days. So, I hope you can bare with me for the time being,

Regards,

Pitbull

it sounds like no one here knows a definite way to make just 1 unit a day in the long run. why are we still trying to make discussion on something that is impossible?

Hi hannah, you are right, If there is a DEFINITE way to make one unit a day, there won't be any casinos on this planet.

regards,

Pitbull

Originally Posted by Pitbull

Hi hannah, you are right, If there is a DEFINITE way to make one unit a day, there won't be any casinos on this planet.

regards,

Pitbull

So the surest way to make a unit a day is to build a casino and lure the players in right? hehe

Hear hear

Mine is not an original idea and many will scoff at its stupidity. I would wait for a banker run of at least 4. Then, I would bet that banker would not go over 3 for the next five times using a five step marty. Banker would have to make six consecutive runs of 4 or more for me to lose. Yes, I know St. Germaine has already said this will never work. However, if you hit and run and do it just once a day, it is possible you might never hit those long consecutive banker runs in your player life. love, swami

Hi swami, sounds great, but in my many many years of baccarating, I have yet to see one survive marty system, maybe our bankroll is too small, or until the last 5th or 6th marty, we back out fearing that we might not strike this hand. furthermore, it is not viable to invest so many units to gain just 1 unit and if we fail just once, it will take us a long long time to recover, and during this period, we cannot afford another loss, Just my 2 cts. thought.

Regards,

Pitbull

Good point Pitbull, have you ever considered the Fibonacci? Less risk, more profit, tighter win ratio required.

Originally Posted by Egalite

Good point Pitbull, have you ever considered the Fibonacci? Less risk, more profit, tighter win ratio required.

please remind me of the fibonacci. i vaguely remember it. is it something like 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, ... ?? and how do you use it?

Hi pitbull, congrats to yr winning today... Keep it up & pls share with us of your
result.
Do u frequent to rws weekday? Or just weekend?We could be crossing one's path
if you are there during the daytime.

Hi swami, I am not a huge fan of Marty but would Only consider a mild Marty step... Max 4 step only..
Any Marty with more than 5 step is too risky for the bankroll.
However, your bet selection of 4 banker sound interesting..
Next week when I am in rws, I will go round tables (more than 60 tables), & check it out 'your trigger' as mentioned.