I am the Mongoose Guy!!! Beware all you Cobras!!


I
will explain why I love and play Mongoose. There is an excellent
thread explaining Mongoose so, I will not do that. I would suggest
you understand that thread before reading this.

The
first stage of Mongoose is a parlay. Good, because you bet only one
after a loss. Also, remember, in the end, you will always win five
units or lose only one. I win the first unit and parlay and lose the
second -1 on a WL. Not good, but this does not happen with every
WLWL series as you will see later. OK, I win 1, parlay +2. Now I am
in fat city. I will risk that 3 units to win 2 more. I bet one and
win. I am now +4. I bet one and win, I am +5 and reset. If I get
into the wlwlwl series here, I am flat betting.
Now,
I am +3 after my parlay. I bet one and lose. I Marty to 2 and
win. I am now +4. I am going to risk that +4 to win one more unit,
so I will either be +5 or -1. Stupid, huh? Not really. To lose
five I have to lose 3 bets in a row. 1-1-3. If I lose the 1-1-3, I
have blown my +4 and am -1. But, I would have lost 3 after the wins
in any case, and I would be only +1 at best. But suppose I lose the
first 1. I play until I win +2, now. So, here comes the wlwlwlwl
series, and I am flat betting!!!! So, I would save some losses here
by not starting over. And I am only getting hurt by the wlwlwl at
the front end. You see, I have to bet 1-1-3 after the win of 4. Now
I lose the 1-1, and I am still +2. I bet 3 units, lose I am -1, win
and I am +5. I have to lose 3 in a row to get beat.

So
What happens if I W1 W2 L1 L2? I won the parlay and lost the Marty,
and am even. Do I start over? No, I must win 5 or lose 1. So I play
the 1-1-3 series again. I lose the first one, now -1 and reset. But
as above, If I win the first 1 and then hit a wlwlwlwl series, I am
still flat betting!!! Also, I have very often won three in a row
here and finish with my +5.

Now,
there is a second part of the strategy, which is a neg prog after
losing coups. It starts 1-1-1-2-2-3-3-4-5-6-7-9 etc. So I lose the
first 7 coups, and I am -13. Here comes the 4 and I parlay and I win
12, and I am down only one. Like Sure Win. In this case, my choice
is to take the +12 and play the 1-1-3. My luck has not been good,
and I want to negate another wlwlwlw series which will only progress
my neg prog. I lose the 5, but I won 12, so I am net 7. -13 +7 is
6, and I can back up my prog. To the first 3, extending the
progression even further.

If
you look at the negative progression and follow it to the end, you
have to only win one coup out of 22 or 26 attempts to end in profit.
It can happen, but you must find a BS that groups wins and losses.
Also remember that you can hedge this strategy easily. Sometimes a
parlay will get you even. Sometime a win of 3 will do it, but near
the end of the progression you will have to win 4 or 5. If I am
starting a new coup and I have 3 single losses
in a row, I never advance the neg progression until a win.



Mongoose
is better than a flat bet in a win series. It can handle losses
easily and cheaply, and it recovers quick. Played with hedges, it is
tough to beat. The negative is that it requires a big BR and is very
difficult to play with a small table spread and a high min bet. You
can win five units with a
wwlw
lwlwlwlww. Or, even WWLW lwlwlwllw. There are lots of ways to win
5.

IMHO,
you will need to practice a lot with Mongoose to understand it and to play it well. It is not enough to judge it by reading about it. It
needs investigation, study, and practice. Love, swami