Can Your System Beat LLLLLLLLLLLLLLWWW

[Egalite]

Thanks for the input, Egalite.
Maybe one of the reasons it worked so well in craps is because once every 18 rolls either one 2 or one 12 is expected (but not both).
The progression is 15 levels deep yet since single chops and double wins allow for the prog to extend over even more events (>15 rolls) we usually see one 2-1 payoff.

7Shooter, in the real world very few players play progressions to the bitter end, they usually bail at a certain point.

My approach now-days is to write out a mini goal target, and strive to reach it, betting as much as I want during down-swings and hopefully eventually hitting the initial target. I always striving to keep bets low as best as possible, less playing pressure, not so much riding on winning any one single bet. For sure it takes longer but bet selection is not something IMO that can not be counted upon in a games of independent trails, no matter what you see or what you think.

[livingthedream]

Ah, looks a lot like piquemouche to me. The main difference, in piquemouche, the next bet after a win is parlayed, plus the next number in the betting sequence. Two wins in a row net a profit. The down side, every loss takes you deeper in to the progression. Progression is: 1-1-1, 2-2-2, 4-4-4, 8-8-8...... On a loss, you go to the next number in the sequence, not necessarily the next level. This can actually buy you a lot of chances for two wins in a row.

[guido1]

Despite having won every live session played using this "new" system of mine, Mattman's simulations have shown it to be a long-term loser. Imagine that. I do thank the Mattman for all the hard work he put into taking a good, serious look at this.
I am posting the system below for your entertainment:

Premise: A series of three wins (WWW) statistically occurs once in eight trials.
1) WWW
2) WWL
3) WLL
4) WLW
5) LLL
6) LLW
7) LWW
8) LWL

One win: WWW WWL WLL WLW LLL LLW LWW LWL

"Premise: A series of three wins (WWW) statistically occurs once in eight trials." This is a very general statement and needs further clarification because the number of trials needs to be considered.

#1. WWW only happens 1 in 8 (fair coin) when the number of trials is EXACTLY 3 just as listed above.
Groups of 3.
That would make the number of trials to be 24.
a simulation shows this to be true.

OR

#2. WWW only happens 1 in 8 when WWW can be overlapping.
WWWWL would be counted as 2 streaks of length 3 for W.
WWLWWWLWWL... this sequence also has 8 groups of 3 trials. But they are overlapping groups. ( 1-3, 2-4, 3-5 etc) This makes for an average of 10 trials to see a run of length 3 using this counting method.
a simulation also shows this to be true.

Individual Gamblers do not bet like method #2. Team play would.
And most will not bet for exactly 3 groups at a time either as in #1.

So what IS the average for a run of length 3?

Your system bets UNTIL a WWW happens.This is how most gamblers play. We play a series of events. I think most Gamblers are more interested in the actual number of bets needed to be made in order to win 1 time.

Example:
How many failures until 3 wins in a row. (a run of 3) for a fair coin.
The math for the average, not the median, is P^-3 + P^-2 + P^-1 = 14. (P = 0.5)
NOt 8.
NOt even close to 1 in 8.
The formula 1/0.5^3 = 8 does not work for a streak or run of length 3 where N, the number of trials is larger than 3. It is only for 3 consecutive trials at a time.

One should avoid creating systems of play based on the law of averages... insist on knowing the actual distribution. The law of averages is for the long run, not for the short, run where every gambler plays.
A probability distribution shows everything you need to know to make better decisions on what to expect in the short run and long run.

Yet as the order of events changes, it is possible for three wins to come around more than what is statistically expected:
Two wins: WWW LLL LWW WLL LWL WWL LLW WLW
Three wins: LWW WLL WLW WWL WWW LLW WLW LLL

Of course. Now you are talking about distributions. How events play out. How many streaks in N trials.
Good stuff.
One problem with streaks of any length is the wait time or how long a run of any length can disappear in an average distribution.

Check out this webpage for more on streaks and expected number of streaks in N trials.
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/...tor-enter.html
This page still only talks about averages, it does not show the math, very complicated I might add, for me at least, or even simulations for an actual distribution of the number of streaks in N trials. But there are free software that will run these type of simulations available.

How about some simulation distributions for a fair coin toss, field bet at Craps and Banker Baccarat bet for a run of length 3.
1 million streaks of length 3 were tallied along with the number of trials needed for a success.
Fair Coin Toss: Average = 14. median 10. (50% or less)

flips   freq  freq/100----------------------
3    125534    12.55%
4    62335    6.23%
5    62285    6.23%
6    62220    6.22%
7    54748    5.47%
8    50992    5.10%
9    47144    4.71%
10    43265    4.33%
11    39446    3.94%
12    36302    3.63%
13    33312    3.33%
14    30773    3.08%
15    28211    2.82%
16    26001    2.60%
17    23781    2.38%
18    22005    2.20%
19    20341    2.03%
20    18672    1.87%
21    17089    1.71%
22    15717    1.57%
23    14561    1.46%
24    13397    1.34%
25    12231    1.22%
26    11096    1.11%
27    10354    1.04%
28    9495    0.95%
29    8667    0.87%
30    7866    0.79%
31    7617    0.76%
32    6867    0.69%
33    6208    0.62%
34    5725    0.57%
35    5142    0.51%
36    4917    0.49%
37    4608    0.46%
38    4105    0.41%
39    3768    0.38%
40    3493    0.35%
41    3290    0.33%
42    2940    0.29%
43    2676    0.27%
44    2541    0.25%
45    2186    0.22%
46    2131    0.21%
47    1953    0.20%
48    1771    0.18%
49    1605    0.16%
50    1395    0.14%
51    1395    0.14%
52    1313    0.13%
53    1217    0.12%
54    1043    0.10%
55    962    0.10%
56    875    0.09%
57    807    0.08%
58    772    0.08%
59    704    0.07%
60    661    0.07%
61    606    0.06%
62    543    0.05%
63    544    0.05%
64    473    0.05%
65    437    0.04%
66    410    0.04%
67    376    0.04%
68    323    0.03%
69    315    0.03%
70    267    0.03%
71    262    0.03%
72    247    0.02%
73    204    0.02%
74    188    0.02%
75    163    0.02%
76    160    0.02%
77    158    0.02%
78    149    0.01%
79    167    0.02%
80    120    0.01%
81    100    0.01%
82    118    0.01%
83    102    0.01%
84    72    0.01%
85    79    0.01%
86    66    0.01%
87    82    0.01%
88    66    0.01%
89    54    0.01%
90    39    0.00%
91    44    0.00%
92    32    0.00%
93    32    0.00%
94    46    0.00%
95    42    0.00%
96    30    0.00%
97    33    0.00%
98    33    0.00%
99    24    0.00%
100    23    0.00%
101    16    0.00%
102    14    0.00%
103    16    0.00%
104    14    0.00%
105    16    0.00%
106    13    0.00%
107    8    0.00%
108    11    0.00%
109    8    0.00%
110    10    0.00%
111    6    0.00%
112    5    0.00%
113    8    0.00%
114    6    0.00%
115    9    0.00%
116    6    0.00%
117    10    0.00%
118    5    0.00%
119    4    0.00%
120    4    0.00%
121    3    0.00%
122    5    0.00%
123    4    0.00%
124    1    0.00%
125    4    0.00%
126    2    0.00%
127    3    0.00%
128    3    0.00%
129    3    0.00%
130    0    
131    1    0.00%
132    2    0.00%
133    1    0.00%
134    1    0.00%
135    1    0.00%
136    1    0.00%
137    1    0.00%
138    2    0.00%
139    1    0.00%
140    3    0.00%
141    1    0.00%
142    4    0.00%
143    0    
144    1    0.00%
145    1    0.00%
146    0    
147    0    
148    0    
149    0    
150    0    
151    1    0.00%
152    0    
153    0    
154    0    
155    0    
156    1    0.00%
157    0    
158    0    
159    0    
160    0    
161    0    
162    0    
163    0    
164    0    
165    0    
166    0    
167    1    0.00%
168    0    
169    0    
170    0    
171    0    
172    1    0.00%
173    0    
174    1    0.00%
175    0    
176    0    
177    0    
178    0    
179    0    
180    0    
181    0    
182    0    
183    0    
184    0    
185    0    
186    0    
187    0    
188    0    
189    0    
190    0    
191    0    
192    0    
193    0    
194    1    0.00%

grouped data
items:                  1000000   


minimum value:                3.00
first quartile:               5.00
median:                      10.00
third quartile:              19.00
maximum value:              194.00


mean value:                  13.99
midrange:                    98.50


range:                      191.00
interquartile range:         14.00
mean abs deviation:           8.75


sample variance (n):        141.66
sample variance (n-1):      141.66
sample std dev (n):          11.90
sample std dev (n-1):        11.90

Field Bet Craps: Average = 18.7. median 14. (50% or less)

rolls    freq  freq/100
  3    87988    8.80%
4    48875    4.89%
5    48902    4.89%
6    48618    4.86%
7    44427    4.44%
8    42454    4.25%
9    40080    4.01%
10    37533    3.75%
11    34987    3.50%
12    33067    3.31%
13    31085    3.11%
14    29197    2.92%
15    27529    2.75%
16    26080    2.61%
17    24520    2.45%
18    22994    2.30%
19    21843    2.18%
20    20504    2.05%
21    19208    1.92%
22    18075    1.81%
23    16869    1.69%
24    16011    1.60%
25    15287    1.53%
26    14231    1.42%
27    13443    1.34%
28    12686    1.27%
29    11828    1.18%
30    11385    1.14%
31    10611    1.06%
32    9979    1.00%
33    9435    0.94%
34    8749    0.87%
35    8172    0.82%
36    7843    0.78%
37    7376    0.74%
38    6834    0.68%
39    6552    0.66%
40    6139    0.61%
41    5689    0.57%
42    5447    0.54%
43    5138    0.51%
44    4798    0.48%
45    4590    0.46%
46    4284    0.43%
47    3957    0.40%
48    3768    0.38%
49    3550    0.36%
50    3446    0.34%
51    3167    0.32%
52    2993    0.30%
53    2817    0.28%
54    2725    0.27%
55    2514    0.25%
56    2354    0.24%
57    2114    0.21%
58    2126    0.21%
59    2011    0.20%
60    1822    0.18%
61    1691    0.17%
62    1616    0.16%
63    1596    0.16%
64    1417    0.14%
65    1268    0.13%
66    1308    0.13%
67    1191    0.12%
68    1166    0.12%
69    1048    0.10%
70    985    0.10%
71    968    0.10%
72    888    0.09%
73    837    0.08%
74    771    0.08%
75    757    0.08%
76    660    0.07%
77    670    0.07%
78    582    0.06%
79    619    0.06%
80    521    0.05%
81    518    0.05%
82    467    0.05%
83    439    0.04%
84    421    0.04%
85    421    0.04%
86    401    0.04%
87    352    0.04%
88    345    0.03%
89    287    0.03%
90    278    0.03%
91    304    0.03%
92    290    0.03%
93    256    0.03%
94    243    0.02%
95    210    0.02%
96    221    0.02%
97    163    0.02%
98    204    0.02%
99    147    0.01%
100    150    0.02%
101    139    0.01%
102    153    0.02%
103    135    0.01%
104    122    0.01%
105    129    0.01%
106    119    0.01%
107    120    0.01%
108    76    0.01%
109    106    0.01%
110    86    0.01%
111    83    0.01%
112    93    0.01%
113    76    0.01%
114    64    0.01%
115    58    0.01%
116    65    0.01%
117    51    0.01%
118    72    0.01%
119    51    0.01%
120    45    0.00%
121    47    0.00%
122    45    0.00%
123    32    0.00%
124    31    0.00%
125    35    0.00%
126    26    0.00%
127    31    0.00%
128    22    0.00%
129    32    0.00%
130    32    0.00%
131    25    0.00%
132    23    0.00%
133    28    0.00%
134    18    0.00%
135    22    0.00%
136    23    0.00%
137    15    0.00%
138    14    0.00%
139    17    0.00%
140    12    0.00%
141    20    0.00%
142    12    0.00%
143    10    0.00%
144    9    0.00%
145    12    0.00%
146    15    0.00%
147    10    0.00%
148    12    0.00%
149    9    0.00%
150    10    0.00%
151    8    0.00%
152    7    0.00%
153    9    0.00%
154    7    0.00%
155    6    0.00%
156    9    0.00%
157    5    0.00%
158    4    0.00%
159    2    0.00%
160    4    0.00%
161    2    0.00%
162    4    0.00%
163    5    0.00%
164    2    0.00%
165    3    0.00%
166    3    0.00%
167    4    0.00%
168    5    0.00%
169    2    0.00%
170    1    0.00%
171    0    
172    3    0.00%
173    2    0.00%
174    2    0.00%
175    2    0.00%
176    1    0.00%
177    1    0.00%
178    2    0.00%
179    3    0.00%
180    0    
181    0    
182    2    0.00%
183    1    0.00%
184    0    
185    1    0.00%
186    2    0.00%
187    1    0.00%
188    1    0.00%
189    1    0.00%
190    0    
191    1    0.00%
192    0    
193    0    
194    0    
195    0    
196    0    
197    1    0.00%
198    2    0.00%
199    0    
200    0    
201    0    
202    0    
203    0    
204    0    
205    0    
206    1    0.00%
207    1    0.00%
208    0    
209    0    
210    0    
211    0    
212    0    
213    1    0.00%
214    0    
215    0    
216    0    
217    0    
218    0    
219    0    
220    0    
221    0    
222    0    
223    0    
224    0    
225    0    
226    0    
227    0    
228    0    
229    0    
230    0    
231    0    
232    0    
233    0    
234    0    
235    1    0.00%
236    0    
237    0    
238    0    
239    0    
240    0    
241    0    
242    0    
243    0    
244    0    
245    0    
246    0    
247    0    
248    0    
249    0    
250    0    
251    0    
252    0    
253    0    
254    0    
255    0    
256    0    
257    0    
258    0    
259    0    
260    0    
261    0    
262    0    
263    0    
264    0    
265    0    
266    0    
267    0    
268    0    
269    0    
270    1    0.00%


                
grouped data
items:                  1000000   


minimum value:                3.00
first quartile:               7.00
median:                      14.00
third quartile:              25.00
maximum value:              270.00


mean value:                  18.67
midrange:                   136.50


range:                      267.00
interquartile range:         18.00
mean abs deviation:          12.19


sample variance (n):        273.97
sample variance (n-1):      273.97
sample std dev (n):          16.55
sample std dev (n-1):        16.55

Banker: Average = 13.55. median 10. (50% or less)

games   freq    freq/100
3    130393    13.04%
4    64378    6.44%
5    64550    6.46%
6    64176    6.42%
7    55725    5.57%
8    52206    5.22%
9    47426    4.74%
10    43473    4.35%
11    40011    4.00%
12    36154    3.62%
13    33641    3.36%
14    30458    3.05%
15    28152    2.82%
16    26001    2.60%
17    23788    2.38%
18    21657    2.17%
19    19835    1.98%
20    18222    1.82%
21    16855    1.69%
22    15340    1.53%
23    13861    1.39%
24    12846    1.28%
25    11885    1.19%
26    10737    1.07%
27    9800    0.98%
28    8985    0.90%
29    8303    0.83%
30    7568    0.76%
31    6989    0.70%
32    6484    0.65%
33    5831    0.58%
34    5372    0.54%
35    4913    0.49%
36    4507    0.45%
37    4137    0.41%
38    3954    0.40%
39    3578    0.36%
40    3135    0.31%
41    2800    0.28%
42    2696    0.27%
43    2366    0.24%
44    2255    0.23%
45    1981    0.20%
46    1872    0.19%
47    1670    0.17%
48    1603    0.16%
49    1485    0.15%
50    1300    0.13%
51    1237    0.12%
52    1123    0.11%
53    1046    0.10%
54    910    0.09%
55    912    0.09%
56    786    0.08%
57    701    0.07%
58    697    0.07%
59    602    0.06%
60    559    0.06%
61    532    0.05%
62    482    0.05%
63    423    0.04%
64    380    0.04%
65    359    0.04%
66    320    0.03%
67    309    0.03%
68    269    0.03%
69    244    0.02%
70    212    0.02%
71    202    0.02%
72    215    0.02%
73    166    0.02%
74    161    0.02%
75    141    0.01%
76    144    0.01%
77    127    0.01%
78    112    0.01%
79    103    0.01%
80    99    0.01%
81    75    0.01%
82    79    0.01%
83    59    0.01%
84    80    0.01%
85    82    0.01%
86    69    0.01%
87    47    0.00%
88    51    0.01%
89    46    0.00%
90    51    0.01%
91    34    0.00%
92    43    0.00%
93    26    0.00%
94    30    0.00%
95    23    0.00%
96    17    0.00%
97    22    0.00%
98    23    0.00%
99    22    0.00%
100    11    0.00%
101    12    0.00%
102    16    0.00%
103    16    0.00%
104    20    0.00%
105    8    0.00%
106    9    0.00%
107    8    0.00%
108    10    0.00%
109    5    0.00%
110    6    0.00%
111    7    0.00%
112    6    0.00%
113    2    0.00%
114    5    0.00%
115    3    0.00%
116    2    0.00%
117    4    0.00%
118    1    0.00%
119    6    0.00%
120    5    0.00%
121    7    0.00%
122    0    
123    2    0.00%
124    1    0.00%
125    1    0.00%
126    2    0.00%
127    0    
128    2    0.00%
129    2    0.00%
130    2    0.00%
131    0    
132    0    
133    3    0.00%
134    2    0.00%
135    2    0.00%
136    1    0.00%
137    1    0.00%
138    1    0.00%
139    0    
140    0    
141    0    
142    0    
143    0    
144    0    
145    0    
146    0    
147    0    
148    0    
149    0    
150    0    
151    0    
152    1    0.00%
153    0    
154    0    
155    0    
156    1    0.00%
157    0    
158    0    
159    0    
160    0    
161    0    
162    0    
163    0    
164    0    
165    0    
166    0    
167    0    
168    0    
169    0    
170    0    
171    0    
172    0    
173    0    
174    0    
175    0    
176    0    
177    0    
178    1    0.00%




                   cumulative
------------------------------------------------
3    130393    13.04%
4    194771    19.48%
5    259321    25.93%
6    323497    32.35%
7    379222    37.92%
8    431428    43.14%
9    478854    47.89%
10    522327    52.23%
11    562338    56.23%
12    598492    59.85%
13    632133    63.21%
14    662591    66.26%
15    690743    69.07%
16    716744    71.67%
17    740532    74.05%
18    762189    76.22%
19    782024    78.20%
20    800246    80.02%
21    817101    81.71%
22    832441    83.24%
23    846302    84.63%
24    859148    85.91%
25    871033    87.10%
26    881770    88.18%
27    891570    89.16%
28    900555    90.06%
29    908858    90.89%
30    916426    91.64%
31    923415    92.34%
32    929899    92.99%
33    935730    93.57%
34    941102    94.11%
35    946015    94.60%
36    950522    95.05%
37    954659    95.47%
38    958613    95.86%
39    962191    96.22%
40    965326    96.53%
41    968126    96.81%
42    970822    97.08%
43    973188    97.32%
44    975443    97.54%
45    977424    97.74%
46    979296    97.93%
47    980966    98.10%
48    982569    98.26%
49    984054    98.41%
50    985354    98.54%
51    986591    98.66%
52    987714    98.77%
53    988760    98.88%
54    989670    98.97%
55    990582    99.06%
56    991368    99.14%
57    992069    99.21%
58    992766    99.28%
59    993368    99.34%
60    993927    99.39%
61    994459    99.45%
62    994941    99.49%
63    995364    99.54%
64    995744    99.57%
65    996103    99.61%
66    996423    99.64%
67    996732    99.67%
68    997001    99.70%
69    997245    99.72%
70    997457    99.75%
71    997659    99.77%
72    997874    99.79%
73    998040    99.80%
74    998201    99.82%
75    998342    99.83%
76    998486    99.85%
77    998613    99.86%
78    998725    99.87%
79    998828    99.88%
80    998927    99.89%
81    999002    99.90%
82    999081    99.91%
83    999140    99.91%
84    999220    99.92%
85    999302    99.93%
86    999371    99.94%
87    999418    99.94%
88    999469    99.95%
89    999515    99.95%
90    999566    99.96%
91    999600    99.96%
92    999643    99.96%
93    999669    99.97%
94    999699    99.97%
95    999722    99.97%
96    999739    99.97%
97    999761    99.98%
98    999784    99.98%
99    999806    99.98%
100    999817    99.98%
101    999829    99.98%
102    999845    99.98%
103    999861    99.99%
104    999881    99.99%
105    999889    99.99%
106    999898    99.99%
107    999906    99.99%
108    999916    99.99%
109    999921    99.99%
110    999927    99.99%
111    999934    99.99%
112    999940    99.99%
113    999942    99.99%
114    999947    99.99%
115    999950    100.00%
116    999952    100.00%
117    999956    100.00%
118    999957    100.00%
119    999963    100.00%
120    999968    100.00%
121    999975    100.00%
122    999975    100.00%
123    999977    100.00%
124    999978    100.00%
125    999979    100.00%
126    999981    100.00%
127    999981    100.00%
128    999983    100.00%
129    999985    100.00%
130    999987    100.00%
131    999987    100.00%
132    999987    100.00%
133    999990    100.00%
134    999992    100.00%
135    999994    100.00%
136    999995    100.00%
137    999996    100.00%
138    999997    100.00%
139    999997    100.00%
140    999997    100.00%
141    999997    100.00%
142    999997    100.00%
143    999997    100.00%
144    999997    100.00%
145    999997    100.00%
146    999997    100.00%
147    999997    100.00%
148    999997    100.00%
149    999997    100.00%
150    999997    100.00%
151    999997    100.00%
152    999998    100.00%
153    999998    100.00%
154    999998    100.00%
155    999998    100.00%
156    999999    100.00%
157    999999    100.00%
158    999999    100.00%
159    999999    100.00%
160    999999    100.00%
161    999999    100.00%
162    999999    100.00%
163    999999    100.00%
164    999999    100.00%
165    999999    100.00%
166    999999    100.00%
167    999999    100.00%
168    999999    100.00%
169    999999    100.00%
170    999999    100.00%
171    999999    100.00%
172    999999    100.00%
173    999999    100.00%
174    999999    100.00%
175    999999    100.00%
176    999999    100.00%
177    999999    100.00%
178    1000000    100.00%






grouped data
items:                  1000000   


minimum value:                3.00
first quartile:               5.00
median:                      10.00
third quartile:              18.00
maximum value:              178.00


mean value:                  13.52
midrange:                    90.50


range:                      175.00
interquartile range:         13.00
mean abs deviation:           8.42


sample variance (n):        130.85
sample variance (n-1):      130.85
sample std dev (n):          11.44
sample std dev (n-1):        11.44

Interested in running your own simulation for streaks?
Google: Peanut software and the Winstats package.
It is free to own and use, no malware and I use it a lot to check stuff done in Excel and visa versa.


Enjoy!

[shuttlebus]

Guido - Excellent post, your knowledge of statistics is impressive and obviously very useful.

[sevenshooter]

Guido - Excellent post, your knowledge of statistics is impressive and obviously very useful.

Guido1: Fantastic stuff -- You make us smarter just by being here. Stick around!

[joshky]

Despite having won every live session played using this "new" system of mine, Mattman's simulations have shown it to be a long-term loser. Imagine that.

Thanks for sharing sevenshooter.

I have one question for you. Going back to your simulations, How many 184 units can you rake in before before one burst?

Looking at some of your earlier results, they have being impresive. With this method of yours, have you done simulations on tryin to playing up to 10 shoes a day aiming either to win 184 units or lose them all with a life BR of 368 units?

[sevenshooter]

Thanks for sharing sevenshooter.

I have one question for you. Going back to your simulations, How many 184 units can you rake in before before one burst?

Looking at some of your earlier results, they have being impresive. With this method of yours, have you done simulations on tryin to playing up to 10 shoes a day aiming either to win 184 units or lose them all with a life BR of 368 units?

I did most of my playing making Field bets at the Craps table.
In retrospect, I think the 2-1 payoff on rolls of 2 and 12 was my system's saving grace: variance.
For example, if one were to run a progression similar to Carsch's or Sure Win, in which profit is guaranteed each time two consecutive wins occurs, extended 18 levels deep, I honestly believe it would be a long-term winner. No need to increase the base unit: simply play the prog to failure and when it busts do it all over again.
You see, profit is secured not only from two back-to-back Field numbers wins, but also whenever a 2 or 12 appears, which is statistically expected once every 36 rolls for each number, or one-in-eighteen for either.
Let's assume you are eleven levels deep into your progression, at a 55-55 repeated Carsch-type wager. Win the first, lose the second, stay at same level, repeat the 55 unit bet.
Two Field numbers, say, 9 and 11 allow you to secure a +3 unit win. Alternatively, one 2 or 12 paying 2-1 on the first 55 bet also immediately results in a +3 unit win. However, a 9 on the first roll and and Aces (2) on the second is like winning a mini jackpot since you win 55 on the first bet and 110 on the second for a total win of +58 units in one sudden blow. That degree of variance which cannot be found in Baccarat is what I feel makes a whole world of difference. Gradually losing your 100-unit bank at a rate of 5-4 becomes something of a mere trifle when this situation strikes several times.

[soxfan]

I did most of my playing making Field bets at the Craps table.
In retrospect, I think the 2-1 payoff on rolls of 2 and 12 was my system's saving grace: variance.
For example, if one were to run a progression similar to Carsch's or Sure Win, in which profit is guaranteed each time two consecutive wins occurs, extended 18 levels deep, I honestly believe it would be a long-term winner. No need to increase the base unit: simply play the prog to failure and when it busts do it all over again.
You see, profit is secured not only from two back-to-back Field numbers wins, but also whenever a 2 or 12 appears, which is statistically expected once every 36 rolls for each number, or one-in-eighteen for either.
Let's assume you are eleven levels deep into your progression, at a 55-55 repeated Carsch-type wager. Win the first, lose the second, stay at same level, repeat the 55 unit bet.
Two Field numbers, say, 9 and 11 allow you to secure a +3 unit win. Alternatively, one 2 or 12 paying 2-1 on the first 55 bet also immediately results in a +3 unit win. However, a 9 on the first roll and and Aces (2) on the second is like winning a mini jackpot since you win 55 on the first bet and 110 on the second for a total win of +58 units in one sudden blow. That degree of variance which cannot be found in Baccarat is what I feel makes a whole world of difference. Gradually losing your 100-unit bank at a rate of 5-4 becomes something of a mere trifle when this situation strikes several times.

I don't usually bumpity bump bump these old thread but this one caused me to ponder some. If a 12 or 2 is mathematically DUE to show within 18 rolls then perhaps an 18 step extended Carsch style would do the trick. To extend to 18 steps would require a bakroll of just over 2400 unit and would require one to make a bet of 821 unit on the final step. So, you would probably need a two or three dollar minimum table with a sufficent max allowed bet to play it. As for sure win, it works but a 2-1 payoff only clears profit on the first two steps, breaks even on steps 3-4 and gives a loss from then on.

A cat called the DaveR from gambling glen used sure win on the field years back and over the course of three weeks ran 500$ into 10k just bettin the field usin sure win with a 1$ base bet. He quit after his first bustout but it just goes to show ya a cat could bust sure win once very three weeks and still make sweet cake, hey hey!
Gambler's Glen Message Boards : Craps Message Board : FIELD BETS

Just wanted to add that last year on our dice adventure in Vegas I found a 3$ table and bet the field usin a 14 stage extended carsch style. I only played for a few hours but never got beyond the ninth stage in progression and pulled down about 40-45 unit per hour, hey hey.

[Egalite]

Interesting read, however NOTHING IS EVER DUE on non-correlated games, besides not knowing anything about craps, don't you need back to back wins to clear.

[soxfan]

Interesting read, however NOTHING IS EVER DUE on non-correlated games, besides not knowing anything about craps, don't you need back to back wins to clear.

If a 2 or 12 show when yer bettin the field, they pay off at 2-1 and 3-1 respectively, so ya only need ONE hit with those to clear profit with a double win progression. And it seems that the 2/12 are mathematically due to hit ONCE within 18 roll, and of course you will also be hittin other field numbers that pay off even money, so that's the beauty of the thing, hey hey.

[tomlasan]

hard to find those 3-1 payoffs anymore! Any one know of 3-1 on the field (craps) in vegas?

[guido1]

hard to find those 3-1 payoffs anymore! Any one know of 3-1 on the field (craps) in vegas?

Las Vegas Craps Survey - Gaming Guides - Wizard of Vegas
"I used to indicate the odds on the field bet and hop bets as well. However, I think I would be correct in saying that everybody pays 3-1 on the 12 on the field, except all Harrah's properties other than Caesars Palace, and the Casino Royale, which pay 2-1 only. Those same casinos are also stingy on hop bets, paying 14-1 and 29-1 only"
CP and CR has 3:1
I played at both.

I was just In Las Vegas and saw these Downtown had 3 to 1 on the Field 12.
Binion's
Fitzgeralds
Four Queens
Fremont
Golden Gate
Golden Nugget
Plaza
Vegas Club
California
El Cortez
Main Street Station

[tomlasan]

well then I think I will head downtown a play some craps while there--thanks for the info

[guido1]

well then I think I will head downtown a play some craps while there--thanks for the info

Since all the downtown casinos have $5min tables and El Cortez and the Freemont (24/7) has $3 min one can play any Field method they would like. and I saw many.
One guy bought in for $200 at Main Street, hit a Field run, not betting it all the time and cashed out with over $2k, while progression betting the field. He did hit a few of the 3:1 12s

It is all about luck in the short run sessions.

[soxfan]

well then I think I will head downtown a play some craps while there--thanks for the info

Most joints in Vegas pay 3-1 on the field. Jerry's Nugget has a 2-2000$ dice table so ya could play sure win style there, balls out, on the cheap, though they only pay 2-1 there. They also have 3-3000$ dice tables at the Binion's, and I've always put in my dice play Downtown, hey hey!

[soxfan]

Since all the downtown casinos have $5min tables and El Cortez and the Freemont (24/7) has $3 min one can play any Field method they would like. and I saw many.
One guy bought in for $200 at Main Street, hit a Field run, not betting it all the time and cashed out with over $2k, while progression betting the field. He did hit a few of the 3:1 12s

It is all about luck in the short run sessions.

None of us will ever get to see the "long run", anyway, hey hey.

[rozer2012]

this one has a jazz beat

[Steve]

Those interested: Frank Scoblet's book on dice control (with DVD):
Casino Craps: Shoot to Win

(Caesars on strip has some good table spreads.)

[soxfan]

7shooter, I heard tell of a joint in new mexico that pays treble for both the 2 AND 12 on the field, pretty much makin it a zero house edge proposition. That would really make runnin star or sure win or carsch style on the field a serious play, hey hey!

I did most of my playing making Field bets at the Craps table.
In retrospect, I think the 2-1 payoff on rolls of 2 and 12 was my system's saving grace: variance.
For example, if one were to run a progression similar to Carsch's or Sure Win, in which profit is guaranteed each time two consecutive wins occurs, extended 18 levels deep, I honestly believe it would be a long-term winner. No need to increase the base unit: simply play the prog to failure and when it busts do it all over again.
You see, profit is secured not only from two back-to-back Field numbers wins, but also whenever a 2 or 12 appears, which is statistically expected once every 36 rolls for each number, or one-in-eighteen for either.
Let's assume you are eleven levels deep into your progression, at a 55-55 repeated Carsch-type wager. Win the first, lose the second, stay at same level, repeat the 55 unit bet.
Two Field numbers, say, 9 and 11 allow you to secure a +3 unit win. Alternatively, one 2 or 12 paying 2-1 on the first 55 bet also immediately results in a +3 unit win. However, a 9 on the first roll and and Aces (2) on the second is like winning a mini jackpot since you win 55 on the first bet and 110 on the second for a total win of +58 units in one sudden blow. That degree of variance which cannot be found in Baccarat is what I feel makes a whole world of difference. Gradually losing your 100-unit bank at a rate of 5-4 becomes something of a mere trifle when this situation strikes several times.

[sevenshooter]

Soxfan: With a 3-1 payout for both the 2 and the 12, Star/Carsch + Recovery would kill that game.