Thread: !Need some advice from the Pros & ex players

hi, I have been playing Baccarat for some time now. I was having a coffee at Siam paragon one day , And i was thinking and i felt really very very tempting to be Full time player but the problem is i'm not sure if i am making the right decision quitting my job and face the possibilities of not able to finance my Car and All. But i just feel so right with this Game . I was thinking of a target mthly and slowly break down of how much i have to profit every session.

Bros at this forum , please advise on this matter with me (: on How? Should i or should i not ? Why ?




Cheers!

I would suggest writing a list of all the pros and cons. Be very honest with yourself when compiling the list.

Ask yourself if it is just your ego that likes the idea of becoming a professional gambler. Winning is the easy part. How you handle the losses will determine if you can handle life as a full time player.

Have you considered raising your betting levels slightly. This would allow you to play part time and still keep your job. A long term winning method will keep winning regardless if you bet $50 or $100 bets. Work smarter and not harder putting yourself under pressure.

Just my advice. Good luck whatever you decide.

Originally Posted by nivrem

hi, I have been playing Baccarat for some time now. I was having a coffee at Siam paragon one day , And i was thinking and i felt really very very tempting to be Full time player but the problem is i'm not sure if i am making the right decision quitting my job and face the possibilities of not able to finance my Car and All. But i just feel so right with this Game . I was thinking of a target mthly and slowly break down of how much i have to profit every session. Bros at this forum , please advise on this matter with me (: on How? Should i or should i not ? Why ? Cheers!

I applaud your wish to play the game for a living but member that gambling is not easy. You need to have the capital- not to mention the disciplines, money management, and so forth. I would not quit my job right a way unless I am successfully doing it for a few yrs. Or if you are comfortable with your method and or sysstem, why not? But please make sure that you have passed all the ins and outs before quitting your job. Being that said, good luck!

I have a trading business, have income every month. If I lose, I can pause. If I do not gamble, I still have a money-making venture. If you stop your job. what would happen if one day you lose all your money? are not you going to be a beggar?

Originally Posted by nivrem

hi, I have been playing Baccarat for some time now. I was having a coffee at Siam paragon one day , And i was thinking and i felt really very very tempting to be Full time player but the problem is i'm not sure if i am making the right decision quitting my job and face the possibilities of not able to finance my Car and All. But i just feel so right with this Game . I was thinking of a target mthly and slowly break down of how much i have to profit every session.

Bros at this forum , please advise on this matter with me (: on How? Should i or should i not ? Why ?




Cheers!

You need to take in all considerations...If your good at it...u'll pick up allot of chicks..If you fail...you'll be sleeping in moms basement.

Originally Posted by nivrem

hi, I have been playing Baccarat for some time now. I was having a coffee at Siam paragon one day , And i was thinking and i felt really very very tempting to be Full time player but the problem is i'm not sure if i am making the right decision quitting my job and face the possibilities of not able to finance my Car and All. But i just feel so right with this Game . I was thinking of a target mthly and slowly break down of how much i have to profit every session. Bros at this forum , please advise on this matter with me (: on How? Should i or should i not ? Why ? Cheers!

Wise one, should I take the long, crooked and sometimes bumpy road of Baccarat discovery? You will say. And I will say Baccarat is always laughing at you in one way or another. Whether you're playing it or thinking about it. It's laughing at you. The choice is yours if you know how to make it stop. It's either mom's basement or girls (says pitty 1). Mom's rooting for you to make the right decision also. She needs her basement!

Originally Posted by Martingaler

I have a trading business, have income every month. If I lose, I can pause. If I do not gamble, I still have a money-making venture. If you stop your job. what would happen if one day you lose all your money? are not you going to be a beggar?

That mean,
You hope eating from gambling ,if you lose ? ,you don't eat ?there is a 30 player but still poor.

Think about it this way, lets just say you have one bad day, get wiped out and have been playing pro for 5 years. You start to look for a legitimate job in Siam, Bangkok and the employer ask, so what have you been doing these past 5 years? What do you say?

Originally Posted by green8

Think about it this way, lets just say you have one bad day, get wiped out and have been playing pro for 5 years. You start to look for a legitimate job in Siam, Bangkok and the employer ask, so what have you been doing these past 5 years? What do you say?

well if you are able to find in ways how your baccarat endeavor relates to the job positions you are replying to then it would not be a problem. plus take away the lonely individual element and tweak things and give a teamwork element then that will also give your baccarat experience some weight and arsenal. like how your travels and meeting different kinds of people at various casinos around the country/world has helped you view things on a much larger scale. articulate how the experience has shaped you into a better and how this will help your future employer. tell your interviewer how you treat this as a small business with a business plan and how you execute it. give your experience with a sense of structured discipline and not some seat of your pants pursuit. also learn how to be a good story teller since most corporate cubicle/office types lead safe and boring lives. if you are able to articulate this into how this will help the company's bottom line, help make you a team player plus you are able to make it as an adventure, the odds will be in your favor. plus given how the economy is so damn terrible nowadays, some may understand your situation into doing this if you decide to return to the workforce.

DO NOT QUIT YOUR JOB!

You are worried about making car payments? I would guess you have less than $10,000 to your name.

First, a professional, a true professional, does not allow himself to get wiped out in one session. In fact, he does not allow himself to be seriously hurt in one session. Bankroll management is of such importance.

Second, the professional gambler usually has a few avenues to make money. He's got his ear to the ground in order to make timely bets, including: sports betting, poker (perhaps entering freerolls when possible), staking people, lending with interest (if possible), stock investing. Do you have other ways to make money?

** My advice:

(1) Keep your expenses as low as possible
(2) Have "life expenses" set aside for 6 months to a year
(3) Have a retirement account setup (NOT to be withdrawn from)
(4) Have a gambling bankroll that you manage. Divide it by 30. This is the MAXIMUM you can lose in a single day.

ex: bankroll $10,000 = $300 per day (approximately).

Now can you really make a living bring $300 to the casino? That's hard man. Therefore, $10,000 is not enough to go pro.

$15,000 = $500 per day. Better, but not enough in my opinion.

$30,000 = $1000 per day. I think this is the bare minimum.

(5) Professionals are patient. If the profits don't come this hour, no problem. This day, no problem. This week. No problem. They pick their spots wisely.

Remember: Every careless bet made has the potential of wiping you out. It's a leak in your game you can't afford.

Basically, you need $50,000 saved up (at a minimum) to consider going pro.

In the meantime, keep your job, keep expenses low, and keep saving.

I'm in the same boat: I have another year of work ahead of me before heading off to Vegas. $80,000 bankroll is my minimum. I don't want to feel desperate, rushed. With this kind of roll, I can survive even if I don't win.

Keep your day job!! You need at least 30 to 100k and minimal expenses. But first of all you need to have an edge. If you have a negative expected value then your risk of ruin is 100%. So until you hqve a + ev don't quit your day job. Best of luck!!

Hi, nivrem. There're a few good tips and advices for you here.

My questions are, how much is your bankroll now?

Where will you go play, since Bangkok has no casinos?

You're probably play at some illegal casinos in Bangkok.

Or if, you've to go to Cambodia, Burma, Singapore or China, then you'll have more expenses.

Lastly, you're still worry about your car payments and other bills.

Based on your situations, I don't think you're ready to quit your job and play full time.

Originally Posted by DiMenosCor

well if you are able to find in ways how your baccarat endeavor relates to the job positions you are replying to then it would not be a problem.

HUH? You have to be joking, Gambling is viewed by non-gamblers as bad if not worst than prostitution. Most employers will not go anywhere near a gambler, too much of a theft risk. Gamblers understand gamblers, non-gamblers do not, I make it a point of never telling anybody at any workplace I gamble, usually doesn't go down to well with prospective partners also.


Quit being stupid and hang on to your day job would be my first bit of advice.

Thanks for all the advise bros! lastly i need some knowledge for money managment please advise

Originally Posted by nivrem

Thanks for all the advise bros! lastly i need some knowledge for money managment please advise

The best thing to do is, to read the threads and posts about MM, in this forum.

nivrem, before considering which MM plan you are going to use, you need to take into account your risk of ruin.

The risk of ruin is the chance that the standard deviation will wipe out your bankroll before you have had a chance to win an amount that correlates with your advantage. What you have to understand is that the edge you have is just like the edge the casino has over other players. Anything can happen in the short term. In the long term however, you will win if you have a true edge.

To limit your risk of ruin, you have to make sure that your bank to bet ratio is in balance with your expected edge. In other words, you could be in big trouble if you don't know what your edge is.

One method that you should consider looking at is the 'kelly criterion'. The great thing about this plan is that your bets increase when you are winning and decrease when you are losing.

The other option is to do what I do and grind out a profit flat betting. It will save a lot of headaches. It also means you don't need a huge bankroll like some on here are suggesting. To suggest someone needs 100k is ridiculous.
I have known fulltime players to start with 10k and build up from there. They knew what their true edge was and how to bet accordingly.

Originally Posted by Egalite

HUH? You have to be joking, Gambling is viewed by non-gamblers as bad if not worst than prostitution. Most employers will not go anywhere near a gambler, too much of a theft risk. Gamblers understand gamblers, non-gamblers do not, I make it a point of never telling anybody at any workplace I gamble, usually doesn't go down to well with prospective partners also. Quit being stupid and hang on to your day job would be my first bit of advice.

thank you egalite for your deep insight and persective. now thanks to you i have decided to quit baccarat and return to my glorious profession as a used condom salesman.also i have saved tons of money on my car insurance by switching to geico from your advice. and a new pair of shiny shoes from punvit from your dedicated investigative work on ebay.thanks so much.

Here is an interesting simulation.

The player bet 1% of his bankroll at all times.

$100 bankroll, 1% advantage

* Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
* Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
* Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
* Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
* Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$100 bankroll, 2% advantage

* Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%)
* Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%)
* Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%)
* Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%)
* Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$1,000 bankroll, 1% advantage

* Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%)
* Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%)
* Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%)
* Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%)
* Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$1,000 bankroll, 2% advantage

* Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%)
* Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%)
* Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%)
* Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%)
* Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

It just shows you don't need a huge bankroll if you have an edge.

That's amazing, I'm sure the Wizard would be interested in those figures. Making seven thousand million bets!!! I've tested various bet selections over 10k decisions which have comes in at 52~54% and I haven't made a million yet, maybe it's due to the negative progressions I've used.

That simulation applies best to casinos who have about a 1% advantage in craps and baccarat and a 5.2 % edge ( 2 zero wheel ) in roulette and a 7% to 9% advantage in slots.....and with a basically unlimited bankroll, they are guaranteed to win in the long run.They have the edge plus thousands of bets to get into the long run....so how come many casinos have gone bankrupt in this great recession.......well it's that dreaded accounting term called "overhead".Large casinos have over 6,000 employees who have to be paid salaries plus health insurance plus 401K and pension plans plus executive bonuses and salaries. Plus casinos have debt service to be paid. Casinos borrow money to build their palaces and they must pay interest and principal payments on the debt.Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods have debt over one billion, five hundred million dollars each......and you thought you had high credit card balances.Also casiinos have utility bills to pay for water and electricity......did you ever see the Las Vegas strip at night? If you think your electric bill is high, how would you like to pay the electric bill for the MGM in Las Vegas?Then there are property taxes, local taxes, federal taxes etc etc etc ...so you get the idea.The overhead sucks up all the profits that players lose gambling.That's why the best casino to own is an online casino ( or poker site ) where the overhead is close to zero.....and the money just rolls in.

Originally Posted by Egalite

That's amazing, I'm sure the Wizard would be interested in those figures

Not really! They are his stats!

I think you only read the first few lines of the stats egalite. The millions of hands reflect the amount of different trials played to reach some conclusions.
Look at the average number of bets needed to reach $1,000,000 and you will see it can be done in less than 50,000 bets with a 2% advantage. Remember you are betting 1% of your bankroll here at all times.

I've been playin bac fulltime for over four years now, and the transition from recreational player to pro is difficult and not to be undertaken lightly. You have receivd some good advices, here. I would add, keep your job, and play serious part time bac until you can see what kind of consistent profit per shoe yer pullin down. This way you can build a roll and gain confidence while keeping your job, for the being time.

Also, I would advise you to read "Fulltime Gambler" by Louis Holloway and Power Baccarat 2 by Byron Hebert. Both authors give very real portrayal of what is required and what to expect when you make bac yer livelihood, hey hey.

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

Not really! They are his stats! I think you only read the first few lines of the stats egalite. The millions of hands reflect the amount of different trials played to reach some conclusions. Look at the average number of bets needed to reach $1,000,000 and you will see it can be done in less than 50,000 bets with a 2% advantage. Remember you are betting 1% of your bankroll here at all times.

$1000=1% is $10 /session ? a hand ?

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

Here is an interesting simulation.

The player bet 1% of his bankroll at all times.

$100 bankroll, 1% advantage

* Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
* Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
* Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
* Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
* Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$100 bankroll, 2% advantage

* Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%)
* Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%)
* Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%)
* Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%)
* Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour x 8 =480hands x 2%($2) =$960 ) How to bet ?P only? or B? or free feeling MM max. 2%

$1,000 bankroll, 1% advantage

* Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%)
* Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%)
* Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%)
* Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%)
* Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$1,000 bankroll, 2% advantage

* Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%)
* Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%)
* Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%)
* Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%)
* Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

It just shows you don't need a huge bankroll if you have an edge.

an edge in gambling???can you show me ? I honestly can't

Originally Posted by Egalite

HUH? Most employers will not go anywhere near a gambler, too much of a theft risk. Gamblers understand gamblers, non-gamblers do not, I make it a point of never telling anybody at any workplace I gamble, usually doesn't go down to well with prospective partners also.


Quit being stupid and hang on to your day job would be my first bit of advice.

You are 100% right. I turned pro more than 5 years ago. Before that I had a high paying job, and gambling was a profitable hobby.
The company went under and I was out of work, so I decided to do this full time. There is no question that this was much more fun when I had the job.
I always had extra money, and could build a bankroll. Baccarat, if you are a pro, is truly a grind. It requires many hours and getd boring. It is a job.

I have posted many times on this topic, you may want to lookm up some of my posts.

Originally Posted by fauzy

an edge in gambling???can you show me ? I honestly can't

I think it was meant for illustration fauzy- but it's a good one all the same- shows you really only need a small edge to do very well.

The trick is finding it!

Thank you man!
My edge is not illustration ,
Type 1 edge only. PPP occur 2sets bet P to the end .
Type 2MM & edge ,win increase +1, lose flat betting 1u.
when we are talking a topic we should give way out .no matter it work or not.
but even so I also thank you to thecomebackkid advise & solution.

Originally Posted by fauzy

$1000=1% is $10 /session ? a hand ?

Yes. If your bankroll is $500 bet $5.
If it's $10,000 bet $100.
If it's 100k bet 1k.

As you can see, it's not unrealistic and you are not going to break any table limits on your march.

A few members have sent me a PM asking about the Kelly betting formula.
There is a book written by William Poundstone called Fortune's Formula which is a very good read and explains things in more detail. You can get it for about $10USD.

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

Yes. If your bankroll is $500 bet $5.
If it's $10,000 bet $100.
If it's 100k bet 1k.

As you can see, it's not unrealistic and you are not going to break any table limits on your march.

A few members have sent me a PM asking about the Kelly betting formula.
There is a book written by William Poundstone called Fortune's Formula which is a very good read and explains things in more detail. You can get it for about $10USD.

you have read it and you share with us. we all members can discuss ,why and how

fauzy, the kelly betting formula is simply betting a fixed proprtion of your bankroll depending on the advantage you hold.

Let me give you a simple example using the game of blackjack as an example.

You have a true count of +3 and your bankroll is $3000. You would bet 3% of your bankroll = $90.
If your bankroll was $5000. You would bet $150. You are betting more money as your bankroll increases and less as it decreases. The theory behind it is that you should avoid the risk of ruin. It is a very good way to accelerate your winning potential. A few people claim the full kelly bet is volatile and suggest using a half kelly which means you just bet half your edge. Using the example above. You have a true count of +3 and your bankroll is $3000. A half kelly would require you to bet $45. The half kelly will perform at 75% of the full kelly but reduce the volatility.


Read the book for a more detailed explanation and broader insight. What I have tried to point out in my posts on this thread is that you can become a successful player and earn a good living from any game as long as you have an edge and adopt some sensible MM plan.
There are plenty of games out there other than baccarat. If you can't find an edge at bac, consider learning another game. I spent 5-10 years looking for advantages in many different games of chance. There is no strategy that you can apply to all games and come out a winner. Every game has a lot of subtle differences which you need to carefully tailor any advantage towards. It takes a lot of thought and experimenting.

Added info. I know 2 guys who are/were professional blackjack players.
One of them used the full kelly bet and won over 250k over a 2 year period before he got banned from every casino in my country.
The other one flat bets and grinds out his profits. He is still playing. My opinion is the first guy was smarter. The casino still knows the 2nd guy is a counter and tolerate him for now. Nothing is to say they could ban him anytime because of the current recession and he would not have won anything like 250k. The 1st guy can get on with the rest of his life knowing he has screwed over the gambling industry. It is not just all about finding an edge. How are you going to use it to maximum effect once you have it at your disposal.