Thread: What is an acceptable win rate per game?

I did not want to say per shoe because I am testing something that I came up with which takes about 20 decisions to complete a game.

I am using a negative 1-2-3 progression.
Stop on a +6 unit win.
Stop on a -6 unit loss.
After 900 games. +1710 units. So nearly +2 units per game.

I have not took any taxes into account here. This seems like a good return. However I know 900 games does not represent anything like the long term considering I am only betting the first 20 decisions.
I will test another 900 games and see where I am at then. I am using the tester books at the moment but would be happy to do some testing with some of you guys who have shoe results from live casinos.
I will also be honest and upfront and say that I don't know what I will do with it should it prove to be a long term winner. The dream will stay alive until my results show otherwise.

Because of it's nature (progression) you will have to go through a good deal of testing to know if it has any real value-- best not to get your hopes up, in the probable eventuality
that it doesn't work out. Good luck though, and keep on testing! You never really know until you test/try.

Thank you for your reply mattman.

I am trying to keep my feet on the ground. It's possibly just a lucky streak because of the 1-2-3 progression like you say.
I am going to devote all my spare time to testing this and see how far it can go. It will start getting exciting if it stays in front for another 900 games.

Figure out how many units you will need for a lifetime bankroll. Then see if yer method can beat dr. Wilson's acid test before you play for real. And figure out yer NET profit as the vig can hit ya for 25-30 of yer gross, hey hey.

Thank you for your reply Soxfan.

I will take on board what you said and certainly will not be risking real money before I am totally convinced I can make this work.

I can show an example of a game. This one comes from using the first shoe from one of the famous tester books. I better not mention it just in case it is copyrighted material.

I will write out the decision and what bet I played. N/B stands for no bet and I will keep a running total.

P - N/B.
P - N/B.
P - N/B.
B - N/B.
B - N/B.
P - BANKER 1 UNIT. (-1)
P - BANKER 2 UNITS. (-3)
P - PLAYER 3 UNITS. (EVEN)
B - PLAYER 1 UNIT. (-1)
P - BANKER 2 UNITS. (-3)
P - PLAYER 3 UNITS. (EVEN)
B - PLAYER 1 UNIT. (-1)
P - PLAYER 2 UNITS. (+1)
B - BANKER 1 UNIT. (+2)
B - BANKER 1 UNIT. (+3)
P - PLAYER 1 UNIT. (+4)
B - BANKER 1 UNIT. (+5)
B - PLAYER 1 UNIT. (+4)

I stopped at +4. There are some rules that I abide by which can see me end a game earlier than usual.

It would be interesting to hear how some of you would have played this shoe up to this point.

All my friends just call me 'kid'. Feel free to use it!

Here is another game I played.

B – N/B.
P – N/B.
B – N/B.
B – N/B.
P – N/B.
B – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+1)
B – PLAYER 1 UNIT. (EVEN)
B – PLAYER 2 UNITS. (-2)
P – PLAYER 3 UNITS. (+1)
B – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+2)
B – PLAYER 1 UNIT. (+1)
P – PLAYER 2 UNITS. (+3)
P – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+2)
P – PLAYER 2 UNITS. (+4)
P – N/B.
The N/B signalled the end of the game. I honestly belief I could flat bet for a profit but that would require a lot of time and patience. I have found a 1-2-3 negative progression can work really well and seems to be a happy medium between the flat bet and a progression.

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

It would be interesting to hear how some of you would have played this shoe up to this point.

All my friends just call me 'kid'. Feel free to use it!

Hey Kid, good luck with your Method. Continue testing including B&M decisions. Using your two examples, I would have been +4 on the 1st game, and -1 on the 2nd. I've been trying to build a bankroll flat betting, quit after a 4 unit win at $15 units. Bankroll has risen to $965, having won $428 since I began playing the 21st of June. Mostly Asian players can't figure out why I don't keep playing when I am winning. Yesterday (after winning six in a row) they asked to see my scorecard. At first I said "no". Then figured: "Oh what the hell". They spoke in a tongue I didn't know and just shook their collective heads. I record my decisions with the card horizontally as do most other players at the table, but with notations that meant nothing to them. Continued good luck with your testing. T101

Soxfan started a thread called Post em up where he displayed some live shoes.
I am going to use these for my testing as well. The first one went pretty well.
P – N/B.
B – N/B.
B – N/B.
B – N/B.
B – N/B.
P – N/B.
P – N/B.
B – PLAYER 1 UNIT. (-1)
P – PLAYER 2 UNITS. (+1)
P – N/B.
P – BANKER 1 UNIT. (EVEN)
B- BANKER 2 UNITS. (+2)
P – N/B.
P – PLAYER 1 UNIT. (+3)
P – N/B.
B – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+4)
B – N/B.
P – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+3)
B – BANKER 2 UNITS. (+5)
B – N/B.
That was the end of the game. If I was flat betting the 3 games I have posted up today, I would have made 4 units. Take away half a unit in taxes and that leaves me with 3.5 units. Not a lot for 3 shoes. That’s why I really like the 1-2-3 progression. It would just mean putting up with a bit more variance in real live play. The 3 games could have easily produced -18 or thereabouts. I will need to go through all my results to get an idea what kind of bankroll I am going to need for playing this baby should I convince myself to go for it. Testing results like today kind of wet my lips for some action.

T101, I am also testing some shoes from the online casinos. I am turning into a testing machine. It breaks up some of the boredom posting them up as well.

Why don't you simply explain the bet selection, then you'll get an honest answer regarding should you play it. Yup I know I could spend some time trying to figure it out, but if it's a crock, I won't be happy that I've wasted my time

Egalite, I would be reluctant to openly share this and then have my hard work hawked for a quick buck by some of the more unscrupulous members lurking around. The ideal scenario for me would be to do some testing with some of the guys here who have live shoes. I am more than happy to help those who help me.

kid..something for you to consider. testing, can be in itself a form of fallacy. infact a winner in a million shoes doesnt prove anything. why? because your system has a nemesis. and that nemesis can happen anytime. you can win 1 milion times straight, and i can lose on the first few bets using the same system. unfortunately, this game scoffs at anything "universal" thrown at it. it just doesnt apply. some will win, most wont. accetable win rate per game session? for me, 1 unit.

Originally Posted by IamSamRedman

kid..something for you to consider. testing, can be in itself a form of fallacy. infact a winner in a million shoes doesnt prove anything. why? because your system has a nemesis. and that nemesis can happen anytime. you can win 1 milion times straight, and i can lose on the first few bets using the same system. unfortunately, this game scoffs at anything "universal" thrown at it. it just doesnt apply. some will win, most wont. accetable win rate per game session? for me, 1 unit.

Actually beating a million shoes would prove a lot. It would prove the game can be beat, and that a long term edge can be found.

Originally Posted by IamSamRedman

kid..something for you to consider. testing, can be in itself a form of fallacy. infact a winner in a million shoes doesnt prove anything. why? because your system has a nemesis. and that nemesis can happen anytime. you can win 1 milion times straight, and i can lose on the first few bets using the same system. unfortunately, this game scoffs at anything "universal" thrown at it. it just doesnt apply. some will win, most wont. accetable win rate per game session? for me, 1 unit.

Thank you IamSamRedman for your comments. I totally get where you are coming from and to be honest, I would settle for 1 unit a game if that is what I have. A losing game or few games on the bounce is never that far away. The hardest part in playing for real will be how I handle the emotional side of it all. That is still the $64 question for me. What will happen when I hit -18 in a days play. I certainly take my hat off to anybody that can chip away day in and day out and make the game pay. That is going to be the ultimate test. All this testing is kids stuff in comparison!

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

Egalite, I would be reluctant to openly share this and then have my hard work hawked for a quick buck by some of the more unscrupulous members lurking around. The ideal scenario for me would be to do some testing with some of the guys here who have live shoes. I am more than happy to help those who help me.

I had 100 real live shoes (RWS-Singapore). Can share your bet selection with me? Pls PM me if you agreed and we can exchange email address. Thanks.

The first game tested this morning was a losing game. I could have broke even flat betting.
B – N/B.
P – N/B.
B – N/B.
B – N/B.
P – N/B.
B – BANKER 1UNIT. (+1)
B – PLAYER 1 UNIT. (EVEN)
P – PLAYER 2 UNITS. (+2)
P – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+1)
B – PLAYER 2 UNITS. (-1)
B – PLAYER 3 UNITS. (-4)
B – BANKER 1 UNIT. (-3)
B – BANKER 1 UNIT. (-2)
That was the end of the game. I consider myself lucky to get out with a 2 unit loss. There is the dilemma between flat betting and progressions. I suppose you can’t always have your cake and eat it. It also strikes me that every system is different. Some could be more suitable to flat bets like Evro’s Kill Shot for craps. Others may give the system a boost with some kind of progression.

I did not make myself clear about testing with some live shoes. I am still looking for ways to improve this system and I was wanting some of you guys to test me by relaying results so I could tell you what I would bet next. That is the ultimate test for me. Then I will write up a final version with all rules when I am satisfied that I have it nailed. I am not looking for someone to send me 500 live shoes in exchange for my system. I just wanted to make that clear.

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

I did not make myself clear about testing with some live shoes. I am still looking for ways to improve this system and I was wanting some of you guys to test me by relaying results so I could tell you what I would bet next. That is the ultimate test for me. Then I will write up a final version with all rules when I am satisfied that I have it nailed. I am not looking for someone to send me 500 live shoes in exchange for my system. I just wanted to make that clear.

You better keep the system for yourself. Is a waste of time for other to read this thread. You didn't even tell how is your bet selection and you expect other to post you difficult shoe for your testing. One moment you ask for real live shoes to share and the other moment you don't expect someone to post you 500 live shoes to exchange for your system. Pls keep the system for yourself. What a big waste of time reading this thread.

@zyyt, you are typical of a lot of asian gamblers I have come across, you want everything on a plate.

This thread is NOT just about a system. It is about the relevance of flat betting VS progressions. Also anybody could look at my results who had half a brain and kind of figure out what I am doing. You have 6 posts and have contributed nothing yourself. Get to the back of the line.

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

@zyyt, you are typical of a lot of asian gamblers I have come across, you want everything on a plate.

This thread is NOT just about a system. It is about the relevance of flat betting VS progressions. Also anybody could look at my results who had half a brain and kind of figure out what I am doing. You have 6 posts and have contributed nothing yourself. Get to the back of the line.

I am hoping that you don't profile race in the baccarat forum and it is my hope that you are not being racist here.

I am going on my experience loser 9 and I am certainly not a racist. It irks me when someone with 6 posts spits the dummy out because I am not handing out freebies. All he had to do was relay a few live shoes and be polite and he would have got what he wanted.

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

I am going on my experience loser 9 and I am certainly not a racist. It irks me when someone with 6 posts spits the dummy out because I am not handing out freebies. All he had to do was relay a few live shoes and be polite and he would have got what he wanted.

Good to know that you are not. Thank you for your clarification. Best of luck to you!!

The next game was one of the better ones.

B – N/B.
B – N/B.
P – N/B.
P – N/B.
B – N/B.
P – PLAYER 1UNIT. (+1)
B – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+2)
P – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+1)
B – PLAYER 2 UNITS. (-1)
B – BANKER 3 UNITS. (+2)
B – N/B.
P – PLAYER 1 UNIT. (+3)
B – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+4)
P – BANKER 1 UNIT. (+3)
B – BANKER 2 UNITS. (+5)
P- BANKER 1 UNIT. (+4)
P – PLAYER 2 UNITS. (+6)

Flat Betting there would have only won 3 units as opposed to 6 with the negative 1-2-3 progression. I suppose you have to choose your poison.

I will not post up any more games. It seems to upset some people. My thread was not meant to antagonize anyone.

EVERYONE (zytt included) is still welcome to do some testing with me if they wish.

thanks.

Originally Posted by thecomebackkid

Egalite, I would be reluctant to openly share this and then have my hard work hawked for a quick buck by some of the more unscrupulous members lurking around. The ideal scenario for me would be to do some testing with some of the guys here who have live shoes. I am more than happy to help those who help me.

Fair enough and quite understandable. There are some who appear to have lots of time on their hands, they might help you out.

Progressions v's Flat betting is a tricky one. I've tested methods in the past that beat probably close to 90% of my test data, yet the losing shoes were horrendous, 30~40 unit end of shoe draw-downs, two of those back to back, and your history. Yet if I flat bet the losing shoes the draw-downs were around the -10 unit figure. But then the 90% win rate drops significantly. One way around this is to find a very shallow progression (Star ~ Labby) and perhaps accept LW runs will break even and LLW runs will be -1 unit rather than a push. It might come down to patience and mindset in the end

Good Luck...

Originally Posted by LOTI

Actually beating a million shoes would prove a lot. It would prove the game can be beat, and that a long term edge can be found.

hi loti. i respecfully disagree..its a matter of perspective, i can win 1 million shoes and lose the next 100 million shoes. tests for this game will never ever be universal. see my point? in this game there is no number for testing high enough. if a mechanical system has a nemesis, then random willl catch up and it will lose. mechanical system? no way. a system based on randomness? maybe. its the nature of 50/50. just because i won x amount of shoes does not prove that i can win x amount of shoes after that. 50/50.

Originally Posted by IamSamRedman

hi loti. i respecfully disagree..its a matter of perspective, i can win 1 million shoes and lose the next 100 million shoes. tests for this game will never ever be universal. see my point? in this game there is no number for testing high enough. if a mechanical system has a nemesis, then random willl catch up and it will lose. mechanical system? no way. a system based on randomness? maybe. its the nature of 50/50. just because i won x amount of shoes does not prove that i can win x amount of shoes after that. 50/50.

Redman
you can test in 1000shoes
last third card 56789 you bet banker .% is 70-30 in a shoe.Good fluck

[QUOTE=LOTI;42872]Actually beating 1s2s3s in a million shoes would prove a lot. It would prove the game can be beat,25%-25%-12,5%= 62.5% ,if you still young,you have time,waiting for only 3s not go to 4s,you can earn living.
or flat betting in a shoe,
1. bet3s only
2.system un bal
3.56789 last 3rd card, bet banker.

Originally Posted by fauzy

Good fluck

ROTFLMAO good job you put an L in there, I misread that at first LOL

Originally Posted by fauzy

Redman
you can test in 1000shoes
last third card 56789 you bet banker .% is 70-30 in a shoe.Good fluck

sigh.

Originally Posted by fauzy

Redman
you can test in 1000shoes
last third card 56789 you bet banker .% is 70-30 in a shoe.Good fluck

I just tested this on 1000 8 deck RNG shoes.

There was a total of 12 122 placed bets (when you place a bet on Banker and tie hits, this does not count) and end result was -137.3 units.

Originally Posted by IamSamRedman

hi loti. i respecfully disagree..its a matter of perspective, i can win 1 million shoes and lose the next 100 million shoes. tests for this game will never ever be universal. see my point? in this game there is no number for testing high enough. if a mechanical system has a nemesis, then random willl catch up and it will lose. mechanical system? no way. a system based on randomness? maybe. its the nature of 50/50. just because i won x amount of shoes does not prove that i can win x amount of shoes after that. 50/50.

I understand what you are trying to say, but there is no method out there (within table limits, with an average of at least 10 placed bets per shoe) that will be positive over 1 million shoes. Now if you had said, I can win 1000 shoes (or perhaps even 10 000) and then lose over the next 1000 (or 10 000) then I would definitely agree.