Gr8Player's Progression

[gillies2001]

Wow, I was really enjoying this thread until the last two pages of nonsense. Gentlemen please remember arguing on the internet is like running in the special Olympics... even if you win your still retarded!... no offense. Great thread tho!

[Bobbybones]

Wow, I was really enjoying this thread until the last two pages of nonsense. Gentlemen please remember arguing on the internet is like running in the special Olympics... even if you win your still retarded!... no offense. Great thread tho!

Well said gillies;
If I see a post by Eaglite I just skip over and proceed. If everyone did the same and just ignored the "troll" we would be better off.
Gr8player has given some useful info and hopefully will continue on.
Bones

[Archer]

Well said gillies;
If I see a post by Eaglite I just skip over and proceed. If everyone did the same and just ignored the "troll" we would be better off.
Gr8player has given some useful info and hopefully will continue on.
Bones

Ditto! Archer

[Egalite]

Put me on your ignore list bobbybones then you won't have to skip the post (you just won't see it), archer you do likewise.

[gr8player]

Gillies2001, Bobbyjones, and Archer, I thank you guys for your interests and insights. It is in the very light of this most difficult situation, where virtually every post I make is under a senseless and abusive attack by a very senseless and abusive troll, that responses such as yours are at their most importance and significance.

We are working, apparently, with an administrator that has, shall I say, a rather unique view of this Forum and an even stranger view of some of its members. While it's certainly not my job to judge our administrator, I should think that, as part of his job description, he just might do a better job in judging us.

All in the name of having this Forum run more efficiently. I haven't the time available to me that would be necessary for me to defend myself against this constant attack, and it's just so wasteful for me to have to spend a good portion of my time here doing just that. I'd rather be "talking Baccarat" than "swatting troll".

And it's quite obvious that Gillies2000, and Bobbyjones, and Archer, and countless others would rather be "talking Baccarat", as well. Thank Goodness......

[Egalite]

That's all a bit IRONIC and patronising Walter, considering GG was never moderated, you certainly managed to survive long enough over there, you even outlasted me

[gillies2001]

Hey Guys, So I've been playing around with this progression only for a couple of days now but I gotta say as far as negitive progressions go it not too bloody bad! Last night I can accross a prick of a shoe that would normally have me sweating bullets with a neg prog but it turned out for the best! I dont have the shoe on recored sorry but it went something like...
1 VILLE - L, L, W, L, L, L, L
2 VILLE - L, W, L, L, L, L, L
3 VILLE - L, W, L, W, L W, L
4 VILLE - W, L, W, L, L, W, L
5 VILLE - W, L, L, W, W, W,
... Or something like that, anyway the point being after lossing 12 of the first 14 bets, I just plotted along patiently until things went my way and sure enough after a couple of hits in a row I was ahead a few units without spending the last hour praying to god every hand..

Relaxed Bac, F'ing love it Gr8!

Cheers guys!
Gillies

[napoleonbp]

Hi Gr8Player,

I just finished reading this thread after 3 hours, I am a new member. I am impressed by your progression and I can see clearly you have experiences in this game. It is really kind from you to take your time to construct this forum and help other brothas out!

After making sense by myself that even it is impossible to predict the outcome, there is such things called "progression" that can help you recoup from losses and possibly making wins if you can manage yourself correctly in the art of gambling.

So far I have tested this progression in computer and my mobile app, and it works.

I am trying this out in a few hours with 665 dollars (33.25 units betting 20 dollars per unit with the progression of 1111111 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25) I don't carry enough money to got to level 4 here since I believe I will start over to level 1 as soon as I recoup or loss 1 unit.

My goal is to win 7-8 units, that will be 140 - 160 dollars.

That being said,

Thank you in advance, I will post my results afterwards.

Napoleonbp

[swami]

Great idea to keep you win goal realistic. Nearly all punters have an unreal expectation of how much they can win in one session or one day. Playing too long is a true loser. Get in, get your win, get out, go home. love,swami

[napoleonbp]

My first experience with progression didn't go well. I played the progression stated b4, my level 1 ended up with -3, level 2 with -4.5 and level 3 with -2.25. I didn't go to level 4, I was losing 195 dollars already (-9.75 of $20).

I just played my way and sometimes incorporating the progression and MM. Afterward was really random and stupid the way I played but I am learning my way up so I am going to improve my odds soon. I managed to win 100 dollars in baccarat table then I moved up to play the dice game and I managed to make another 100 dollars. Walked out the casino with 200 dollars win in my pocket luckily.

Anyways, that was my first experience with the progression. Am I going to use it again? Probably, but first I need to learn as much as I can in this forum and then go out to the battle. I need suggestions on how to improve my odds. BTW anyone can explain me the variance with examples? I don't know how it really works. Also any suggestion on what strategy I should keep on mind when playing. Any suggestion and help will be welcomed and much appreciated

Napoleonbp

[swami]

Do not go to the casino without a game plan, a MM plan and a win and loss goal. One strategy you might check out is Pitboss thread, it seems as good as any. And remember, when things go against you it is time to take a break, and if you lose your cool it is time to go home. love, swami

[gr8player]

Napoleonbp, thank you for your interest and input.

It appears to me that you might've abandoned the progression just a bit too prematurely, my friend. You were only 7 bets below .500 (3 from base, 3 from "2-ville", and 1 from "3-ville") at 7 W's vs 14 L's, and while that's not the greatest of positions to be in, this progression was built for just those situations.

Had you have remained in "3-ville" for another 7-series (which is the correct, conservative play for this progression), it appears you'd have recovered rather easily, because, apparently, your hit an upturn in your variance with your results of both recoup and subsequent win of $100. (Congrats, by the way...good job. It's when you're successful in turning those "toughies" into profits...any profit...that will serve any player very well.)

As to your variance question, well, my friend, you partly answered that for yourself at that difficult session, where you rebounded rather well after a tough start. For me to get much more specific than that, at this stage of your Bac "career", would probably not serve the intent that I'd have meant for you.

Suffice to say, if I were you, I'd try to limit my bet selections to a couple that you're both comfortable and familiar with. Then, I'd track my "hits and misses", regardless if you placed a wager on them or not, and I'd attempt to "ride that wave"; meaning, when that particular bet selection/trend is not hitting or "holding" as well as you'd like, back off of it (read: no-bet or base bet), and when it appears to be awakening (read: hits twice in-a-row), that might be a good time to raise that unit size just enough for a relatively-easy recoup. Then, my friend, profit is just around the corner.

That, in it's basest form, is how I prefer to approach this game. That's why you're reading my "Gr8Player's Progression" in this very thread; because it attempts to "ride out" one's basest variances, even if "variance play" is a little bit "Greek" to them, and I wanted to share it for all to see for themselves.

I wish, as always, continued success for all.

[Archer]

Hey Guys, So I've been playing around with this progression only for a couple of days now but I gotta say as far as negitive progressions go it not too bloody bad! Last night I can accross a prick of a shoe that would normally have me sweating bullets with a neg prog but it turned out for the best! I dont have the shoe on recored sorry but it went something like...
1 VILLE - L, L, W, L, L, L, L
2 VILLE - L, W, L, L, L, L, L
3 VILLE - L, W, L, W, L W, L
4 VILLE - W, L, W, L, L, W, L
5 VILLE - W, L, L, W, W, W,
... Or something like that, anyway the point being after lossing 12 of the first 14 bets, I just plotted along patiently until things went my way and sure enough after a couple of hits in a row I was ahead a few units without spending the last hour praying to god every hand..

Relaxed Bac, F'ing love it Gr8!

Cheers guys!
Gillies

WOW, 34% win rate out of 34 decisions is about the worst you will ever see. The upside is what goes down must come up. In a 50-50 game you are due - but when is the question. When it comes you are going to have to ride it a bit to offset losses like that.

A

[mattman]

WOW, 34% win rate out of 34 decisions is about the worst you will ever see. The upside is what goes down must come up. In a 50-50 game you are due - but when is the question. When it comes you are going to have to ride it a bit to offset losses like that.

A

It can get even worse-- I've observed guys over 40-50 decisions hit at around 25%-- that stuff's cringe-worthy to watch, but happens.

Yes, when the upside occurs, is the question; reversion to some type of mean seems to occur eventually, but it's too hard to tell when. Often
it won't be for very long stretches of time. In some testing I've found, it appears that it almost never reverts back with such small amounts that capitalizing
would have been useless.

[confusedgambler]

It can get even worse-- I've observed guys over 40-50 decisions hit at around 25%-- that stuff's cringe-worthy to watch, but happens.

Yes, when the upside occurs, is the question; reversion to some type of mean seems to occur eventually, but it's too hard to tell when. Often
it won't be for very long stretches of time. In some testing I've found, it appears that it almost never reverts back with such small amounts that capitalizing
would have been useless.

Was your testing done with trending as a bet placement or pattern capturing as a bet placement?

[Archer]

It can get even worse-- I've observed guys over 40-50 decisions hit at around 25%-- that stuff's cringe-worthy to watch, but happens.

Yes, when the upside occurs, is the question; reversion to some type of mean seems to occur eventually, but it's too hard to tell when. Often
it won't be for very long stretches of time. In some testing I've found, it appears that it almost never reverts back with such small amounts that capitalizing
would have been useless.

If you mean not coming back with wins reaching 25 ticks the other way then yes. But it doesn't have to. We can recover even with % wins reaching 47% as an example, IOW, not reaching over 50%. The scissoring action of progressive betting will do the trick. It helps to press a bit as well when we see wins begin to mount up.

Archer

[mattman]

Was your testing done with trending as a bet placement or pattern capturing as a bet placement?

For B/S every which way-- patterns, trends, B/P, ect-- that never made a difference. No matter the pattern/trend, low hit rates (sometimes very low)
can always appear at any given time, though generally rare. Reversion to the mean always interested me, but I was never able to formulate a good strategy around it.

[gr8player]

Absolutely great discussion, fellas.....kudos go out to Archer and Mattman, great job! I just get back on-line after my AC trip to see these fellas speaking about "reversion to the mean" and "the capitalization thereof"; that's the very essence of long term success, IMHO.

Alright, alright, I call it "variance play", but let's not get into semantics. I'd rather contribute the following:

Yes, it is true that any and all bet selection methods can and will, at times, suffer drastic downturns. If, in fact, that weren't the case, we could all "differential bet" and make a killing. But, alas, we cannot, because of the very volatile nature of this "bitch" called "bet selection".

But, that said, I trust you guys can see that just the recognition of that fact is a major step in solving the problem. That's why I'm not surprised that members such as Archer and Mattman would address it as such, for they are certainly savvy enough to know of its existence.

OK, now, the $65,000 question: What do we do about it?:

[gr8player]

1.) The "no bet".

A must to be included on anyone's arsenal, regardless the bet selection method. I've averted some longer-than-usual "losing jags" with that one move (or, should I call it, a "non-move"). Tough shoes, tough sessions, losing jags, losing streaks...can and will occur, from time to time. One needs an answer. The answer is the "no-bet".

I can't promise much, but I can promise that they'll deal another shoe, and then another after that. Learn some patience and discipline, and learn to sit out those difficult times. It'll save on your bankroll and your psyche. Then, at first "inkling" of an upturn, you can resume real betting. Generally speaking, if I lose two consecutive bets on any trend (three at most), I'm sitting out (read: "no-betting" until a "virtual" win. Now, two things happened:

Firstly, I've negated any negative effect on my bankroll by averting any longer-than-usual lossing streaks. And, secondly, I've rejoined my betting only after a win, which could be the precursor to more wins (especially possible after those longer-than-usual downturns). Now, is it an exact science? Nope. You could sit out, await a virtual win, and still lose the next couple of bets. It happens. And, when it does, I'll:

2.) Use a "shoe progression".

While I have seen worse-than-usual shoes, it's rare, very rare, that they'll be followed by yet another one. What I lost in shoe one will usually be found in shoe two. My trending will fail me for just so long. So I'll raise my bets into the next shoe after any particularly difficult one.

By adopting a mind-set like that, you won't be as inclined to "chase your losses" during any particularly difficult shoe. The patience and the discipline both come a bit easier when you can visualize the "light at the end of the tunnel", and a shoe progression will serve that purpose perfectly.

3.) Last but certainly not least: The Recouping Parlay

As you guys all know by now, my preferred trends tend to bring wins in some sort of "clustering" when they are hitting. So, especially in the name of recoup from those more difficult times, I like to utilize a one-step parlay in my MM arsenal. You see, a parlay works well for recoup anyhow, but, when a unit-size raise is in order and utilized, the parlay now packs a "double wallop" towards full recoup as quickly and efficiently as possible. An example:

In my intial shoe, I'm betting one unit. After that shoe, I'm sitting at a minus 3 (or more) on one of my preferred trends. For the next shoe, I'll raise that unit size to one and a half (50% raise). Now, any successful parlay (read: two consecutive wins) nets me a whopping 4.5 units of pure profit! Sure beats the heck out of that minus 3 or 4 or 5 from last shoe, don't it? One successful parlay. On an upturn that I'm fully expecting, anyhow, after last shoe's difficulty. Lovin' it......

And lovin' this subject. Thanks again, fellas, for continuing a vital conversation. I wish you all the very best of it.

[gr8player]

"Recoupability" is the name of the game in any casino. Let's face it, any schmuck can win. Winning is easy. The bets you are making are all getting paid off, for the most part, and, in sessions such as those, it's all just a matter of "how much". But, it's in those difficult sessions; the sessions that are a battle, from beginning to end, those are the times when we will, truly, discover the truth about YOU as a Bac player.

And, somewhere in that very same truth, somewhere in that definition of YOU, is your inate ability for RECOUP. How do you handle those difficult times, and what do you do for recoup?

Bail-out bet?

Yeah, we've all been there, done that. Buy-in for 2 G's, you're having a "hell" of a session, got about $800 to 1 G left, let's say we bet it all on our next play, one win and we're "back to square one"........

.......Forget that! That's no way to "live" (read: long term success) as a Bac player. It's a "lose-lose" situation. Why? If you lose, you're busted, and on the way home, with no chance to grind it back. And, even if you're fortunate enough to win that "bail-out" bet, what sort of lesson is that to teach yourself? Ever hear of the term: Negative Reinforcement? That, my friends, is the very definition of negative reinforcement, where, even if you got lucky for that one bet, it'll have you "bail-out betting" your head off (and your wallet off) at each and every difficult session. It'd be a destructive habit, for sure.

Change bet selections?

Let's see, FTL is not working, I'm gonna try OLD. Or my "anti" plays are failing, I'm gonna start betting OTR (on the run/streak).......

........Forget that! That's no way to "live" (read: long term success) as a Bac player. Yet again, it's another "lose-lose", if the switch fails, now you're "caught" in the switches, and don't know whether to "shit or go blind" at the table; if the switch works, you'll be switching at the first inkling all the time. Yet again, it's negative reinforcement at work and it'd be a destructive habit to get into.

No, my friends, I'm afraid that there is no "quick fix" for those tougher-than-usual sessions. You've just got to accept it as part and parcel of the inherent volatility of this game, and you'd best learn to adjust to it. And by "adjust to it", I mean adjusting to it at YOUR PACE. This is the time when you want to slow the game sdown to a crawl. Don't seek the exact opposite, for that's the danger; don't look to speed it up. Slow it down. Take a deep breath, and then a "breather". Relax......

......and allow the game to come to you. For no matter how much you bet, and how often you bet, and how twisted and disturbed and pissed you might get.....all of that won't make you win the next bet. Or the next. Know that. "Chasing" is for losers. Accept that. Only then, ONLY THEN, can you learn to do something about it that will assist you to recoup over the long term whenever situations like these arise.

Start by "no-betting" as often as feasible in those tougher sessions. You're obviously not collecting on those bets, keep them in your pocket. Then, after a "virtual" win (or two), try raising your unit sizes as your variance (read: strike rate for those that don't like the "v-word") drops incrementally lower, preferably in a new shoe if this shoe has caused nothing but grief. Grind it back. Parlay if it appears that your trend(s) are "double-hitting"; in this way, you're taking best advantage of that happenstance.

But just relax. Losses will happen. In fact, if you've raised your bet for the next shoe, and two bets in-a-row are swept up by the dealer (three at most), I'd seriously consider abandoning this ill-fated session. (I did it yesterday....had a tough session, then I got up a couple of units, then "over-stayed my welcome" and dropped down 2 units....a "spring hit my seat cushion" as I ran to the cashier's cage, accepting the 2-unit loss as graciously as could be expected. Bottom line: I didn't care as much about those 2 lost units as I did care about possibly turning this tough session into an unnecessarily large loss.) Again, losses will happen. Learn to accept them, and, in that way, they'll start becoming as "short" as possible.

Then, you can begin to define yourself as a Bac player. Gambler? Player? Winner? Loser? What can be said of you? More importantly, what do you WANT to be said of you? For it's all in your hands. I can't do it for you, no one can do it for you. Only you can do it for you.

And, my friends, it's just so difficult to do. It really is. It's a lonely game, especially when things aren't going as well as we'd like them to. Winning, long term, is a bitch. Very difficult. It takes such a strong commitment, an intestinal fortitude, an unyielding desire. To lose and to win. To win more dollars than we lose. It's a "back and forth" battle with the casino.

But, my friends, the main reason for this post is to, at least, resolve the battle within ourselves. For that, we CAN control. That's a battle that MUST be won, each and every time we sit down to play.

I wish you all the best.

[Jamesbac]

New member but longtime Baccarat player, I really enjoy your posts GR8Player as they ring true to my experience and the way that I play. Nice thread thats very informative--ty

[Sting]

New member but longtime Baccarat player, I really enjoy your posts GR8Player as they ring true to my experience and the way that I play. Nice thread thats very informative--ty

only 3 posts and ya already nailed ya sail to the mast LMAO