Thread: Should you set a win limit?

I worry about getting TOO greedy whilst gambling. Ive done it before, I played off my friends chips on a BIG night he had, and got up to $240 and then almost immediately busted out from betting larger than a $240 bankroll should allow. This was 4 years ago.

Im almost 26 and of between 15-20 trips to the casino and research on the internet, I know how to make my small bankroll last. I do not play to make significant amounts of money, but to do my best at not walking out a loser while the house holds the ultimate advantage over me.

I set a loss limit of $50, a good night can easily make that up but Im curious as to whether I should be going for more than a $50 win limit. Perhaps $65 for a win limit? If I get down to $20, I call it quits and say atleast I walked out a winner.

edit: a;sp thought I would mention that Ive learned, the *hardway* never to chase after losses through more casino gambling

This is why I have taken an interest in EZ Baccarat Banker bet, because of the low house edge, and I thought I could learn alot from this forum, as well as the low house edge on the PLayer bet.

Originally Posted by JimmyS1985

I worry about getting TOO greedy whilst gambling. Ive done it before, I played off my friends chips on a BIG night he had, and got up to $240 and then almost immediately busted out from betting larger than a $240 bankroll should allow. This was 4 years ago.

Im almost 26 and of between 15-20 trips to the casino and research on the internet, I know how to make my small bankroll last. I do not play to make significant amounts of money, but to do my best at not walking out a loser while the house holds the ultimate advantage over me.

I set a loss limit of $50, a good night can easily make that up but Im curious as to whether I should be going for more than a $50 win limit. Perhaps $65 for a win limit? If I get down to $20, I call it quits and say atleast I walked out a winner.

edit: a;sp thought I would mention that Ive learned, the *hardway* never to chase after losses through more casino gambling

This is why I have taken an interest in EZ Baccarat Banker bet, because of the low house edge, and I thought I could learn alot from this forum, as well as the low house edge on the PLayer bet.

To guarantee a win, the answer is yes. Here what I do.

Shoot for 7 units wins and keep the fours plus my bankroll in my pocket. I use the 3 units to keep playing and I always pocket the winnings from this three units. I leave the casino when I lose my last three units.

Yes you should set a win limit (I call it a win objective).
I understand the math behind the game, and I play professionally.
My method has a positive expectation, so a purist would say play all you can and never set a limit.

But this is not a computer game, I play this with real money and any real gambler knows that emotions, and personal financial circumstance cannot be ignored.

I set a moving win objective. That objective changes as I run out of time for a given session. Lets say my goal is to win $3,000. I also plan to stay for three days. If it is day three, and I haven't reached my goal, I set my objective at $1,000. I will be happy to go home a winner.

If I reach my goal on day one, I will put $2,000 away and play with
$1,000 of profit. At that point I would cut my unit size in half and
continue to play trying to win a extra $1,000, but knowing that if I lose
the $1,000 I will stop and leave the table ahead $2,000.

If I do win the extra $1,000, or simply get tired, I leave, and move on to a different game that I might play with a small bankroll, say $500.

I present this to give you some ideas. Don't ignore the emotional side. There really is nothing wrong with leaving while you are ahead and enjoying some of the money won.

Originally Posted by Profbac

Yes you should set a win limit (I call it a win objective).
I understand the math behind the game, and I play professionally.
My method has a positive expectation, so a purist would say play all you can and never set a limit.

.

I'm sick of reading this.

Expectation is the sum of (probability of outcome x outcome).

Assuming you bet on banker

The probability of a banker win is 0.458597 the payout is .95
The probability of a player win is 0.446247 the payout is -1 (i.e you lost)
The probability of egalite is 0.095156 the payout (assuming you bet banker or player is 0)

So to calculate expectation of a banker bet (.458597 x .95) - (.446247 x 1) + (.095156 x 0) =

0.43566715 -.446247 + 0 = −0.01057985 which is negative

The expectation of a player bet

(.446247 x 1) - (.458597 x 1) = −0.01235 which is also negative.

I am not going to waste my time calculating the expectation of egalite.

Each bet you have has a negative expectation. Your total expectation is the sum of the expectations for each bet you place.
It is not mathetmatically possible to combine a sum of negative numbers to produce a positive number.

So if you think your method has a positive expectation then you don't understand the math behind the game.

Setting a win limit will merely change the pattern of wins and losses you achieve. Bear in mind that there will be some days when you never manage to get ahead.

The net result will be the same in the long run.

You will lose your bankroll before you manage to double it.

if that doesn't happen, you will lose your doubled bankroll before you manage to quadruple it etc.

Basically you can only buck the odds for so long.

The speed at which this happens depends on the variance inherent in your betting patterns.

Originally Posted by mutters

I'm sick of reading this.

Expectation is the sum of (probability of outcome x outcome).


Eachh bet you have has a negative expectation. Your total expectation is the sum of the expectations for each bet you place.
It is not mathetmatically possible to combine a sum of negative numbers to produce a positive number.

So if you think your method has a positive expectation then you don't understand the math behind the game.

Hey Mutters, I never told you my method, so how do you know that it has a negative expectation.

It is possible to develope a bet selection method with a positive expectation, you just haven't figured it out.

Originally Posted by mutters

Setting a win limit will merely change the pattern of wins and losses you achieve. Bear in mind that there will be some days when you never manage to get ahead.

Originally Posted by mutters

The net result will be the same in the long run.

You will lose your bankroll before you manage to double it.

if that doesn't happen, you will lose your doubled bankroll before you manage to quadruple it etc.

Basically you can only buck the odds for so long.

The speed at which this happens depends on the variance inherent in your betting patterns.

People might pay a bit more attention to what you write, if you told us a little bit more about yourself. Such as age bracket, have you ever gambled in a land base casino, for how long, what is the level of your real world gaming experience, etc.

You might "sometimes" make sense, but unfortunately without the background info, or any rationale behind your statement that "you can win on-line but not in a land-based casino", not many are listening. Which is in part due to a lot of us, thinking who is this kid, and what gives him the right to tryand educate us", when he has no experience.

If you had posted at length you casino experiences and how you underwent some mathematical epiphany, you would have more paying attention, as it stands you are pissing against the wall here.

Originally Posted by mutters

I'm sick of reading this.

Expectation is the sum of (probability of outcome x outcome).

Assuming you bet on banker

The probability of a banker win is 0.458597 the payout is .95
The probability of a player win is 0.446247 the payout is -1 (i.e you lost)
The probability of egalite is 0.095156 the payout (assuming you bet banker or player is 0)

So to calculate expectation of a banker bet (.458597 x .95) - (.446247 x 1) + (.095156 x 0) =

0.43566715 -.446247 + 0 = −0.01057985 which is negative

The expectation of a player bet

(.446247 x 1) - (.458597 x 1) = −0.01235 which is also negative.

I am not going to waste my time calculating the expectation of egalite.

Each bet you have has a negative expectation. Your total expectation is the sum of the expectations for each bet you place.
It is not mathetmatically possible to combine a sum of negative numbers to produce a positive number.

So if you think your method has a positive expectation then you don't understand the math behind the game.

this is only true for flat bets in the limit of infinite play but if you use a progression and play short term you can get much higher even positive maths

Originally Posted by Profbac

Hey Mutters, I never told you my method, so how do you know that it has a negative expectation.

It is possible to develope a bet selection method with a positive expectation, you just haven't figured it out.

If you think that you don't know what expectation is and if you don't know what expectation is you don't understand the math behind the game.

For the benefit OP and anybody else reading google is your friend. I found this

"A negative expectation bet is a bet which pays out at odds less than the true odds of the event happening."

Baccarat Gambling System to Reduce House Edge

Profbac is trying to tell you that he can generate a positive expectation from a game in which every bet has a negative expectation because they all pay out at less than true odds.

no like i said above this is only true for flat betting I think profbac is using a progression you can show with the maths a positive outcome when a progression is used it is only a matter of how deep your pockets are then but you can always win against the house if your bankroll is big enough it is maths figure it out I did

Originally Posted by mutters

If you think that you don't know what expectation is and if you don't know what expectation is you don't understand the math behind the game.


Profbac is trying to tell you that he can generate a positive expectation from a game in which every bet has a negative expectation because they all pay out at less than true odds.

This is not craps, roulette, or a game that is mechanically fixed.
As hands are played, and cards removed from the shoe, the expectation for the next hand is constantly shifting. There in lies the potential to
develope a method to win. But this requires thinking on a level beyond the arithmetic you are fond of putting out on this site.

BTW, your posts sound like Sparkart. Look him uip.
He gave us the same loser mandra that the game was not winable.
Never understood why people like that come on to these sites.

Originally Posted by Profbac

There in lies the potential to
develope a method to win.

Do not give up, baccarat researchers! If there is a will, there is a way.

Originally Posted by Profbac

This is not craps, roulette, or a game that is mechanically fixed.
As hands are played, and cards removed from the shoe, the expectation for the next hand is constantly shifting. There in lies the potential to
develope a method to win. But this requires thinking on a level beyond the arithmetic you are fond of putting out on this site.

BTW, your posts sound like Sparkart. Look him uip.
He gave us the same loser mandra that the game was not winable.
Never understood why people like that come on to these sites.

card counting baccarat is proven to have a positive expectation by many maths researchers

Originally Posted by Profbac

This is not craps, roulette, or a game that is mechanically fixed.
As hands are played, and cards removed from the shoe, the expectation for the next hand is constantly shifting. There in lies the potential to
develope a method to win. But this requires thinking on a level beyond the arithmetic you are fond of putting out on this site.

BTW, your posts sound like Sparkart. Look him uip.
He gave us the same loser mandra that the game was not winable.
Never understood why people like that come on to these sites.

3 & 4 favor P, 6 & 7 favor B

Originally Posted by Profbac

This is not craps, roulette, or a game that is mechanically fixed.
As hands are played, and cards removed from the shoe, the expectation for the next hand is constantly shifting. There in lies the potential to
develope a method to win. But this requires thinking on a level beyond the arithmetic you are fond of putting out on this site.

Card counting in Baccarat. Hmmmmmm given a choice between you and published researchers like Ed Thorp who am I going to believe? But thats not the point.

Expectation is a mathematical concept, which was and is my point to you (not whether you have - or think you have a winning system) .

So if you are looking "beyond the arithmetic" then you ain't talking math and you ain't talking expectation.

Originally Posted by mutters

Card counting in Baccarat. Hmmmmmm given a choice between you and published researchers like Ed Thorp who am I going to believe? But thats not the point.

Expectation is a mathematical concept, which was and is my point to you (not whether you have - or think you have a winning system) .

So if you are looking "beyond the arithmetic" then you ain't talking math and you ain't talking expectation.

thorp also proved card counting in baccarat has positive expectation look it up you will find it in his book

Originally Posted by mutters

Card counting in Baccarat. Hmmmmmm given a choice between you and published researchers like Ed Thorp who am I going to believe? But thats not the point.

Expectation is a mathematical concept, which was and is my point to you (not whether you have - or think you have a winning system) .

So if you are looking "beyond the arithmetic" then you ain't talking math and you ain't talking expectation.

No mutters, I am looking beyond the arithmetic that you have presented.
You are nowhere with this. All you do is quote other web sites.
Your level of analysis is too basic to discover a winning method.

As to Ed Thorp, have you ever spoken to him. He didn't say that card counting doesn't work. He said that he didn't find a card counting method that worked. He will also tell you that he applied blackjack methodology to baccarat. I will tell you that doesn't work. Baccarat is a different game.

The people making money at this game have done original research.
You come on this site and tell us the game cannot be beaten because you have not found a winning method.

Simply put, you are a loser, and all you have to offer are the secrets
of your failure.

Get out from behind the computer and really play the game. Talk to some people who are professional gamblers. There are people who know more about math and computers than you, and they are making money.

Originally Posted by Profbac

No mutters, I am looking beyond the arithmetic that you have presented.
You are nowhere with this. All you do is quote other web sites.
Your level of analysis is too basic to discover a winning method.

As to Ed Thorp, have you ever spoken to him. He didn't say that card counting doesn't work. He said that he didn't find a card counting method that worked. He will also tell you that he applied blackjack methodology to baccarat. I will tell you that doesn't work. Baccarat is a different game.

The people making money at this game have done original research.
You come on this site and tell us the game cannot be beaten because you have not found a winning method.

Simply put, you are a loser, and all you have to offer are the secrets
of your failure.

Get out from behind the computer and really play the game. Talk to some people who are professional gamblers. There are people who know more about math and computers than you, and they are making money.

actually thorp published in his book a full table of positive expectancies for baccarat card counting it is in his chapter on baccarat he only said in the end that blackjack card counting makes more money because it had higher expectancies

Originally Posted by Profbac

No mutters, I am looking beyond the arithmetic that you have presented.
You are nowhere with this. All you do is quote other web sites.
Your level of analysis is too basic to discover a winning method.

As to Ed Thorp, have you ever spoken to him. He didn't say that card counting doesn't work. He said that he didn't find a card counting method that worked. He will also tell you that he applied blackjack methodology to baccarat. I will tell you that doesn't work. Baccarat is a different game.

The people making money at this game have done original research.
You come on this site and tell us the game cannot be beaten because you have not found a winning method.

Simply put, you are a loser, and all you have to offer are the secrets
of your failure.

Get out from behind the computer and really play the game. Talk to some people who are professional gamblers. There are people who know more about math and computers than you, and they are making money.

I'm a loser. Fine. You don't even know me. Feel better now.

For the umpteenth time. I have never said the game can't be beaten.

For what its worth I think there is a way to exploit the math profitably and its far simpler to do than any card counting method but going so far as to say it turns the game into one having a positive expectation is in my opinion reckless.

Since you're the one coming out here and claiming positive expectation prove it and shut me up.

Otherwise STFU.

If you come out and tell people they can have a positive expectation without explaining how or that perhaps it requires powers of concentration and mental agility which most do not possess you are misleading them.

This is not about whether some smug smartasses are making money. It's about whether your reckless and deficiently informative post is induces others to lose theirs.

Originally Posted by mutters

I'm a loser. Fine. You don't even know me. Feel better now.

For the umpteenth time. I have never said the game can't be beaten.

For what its worth I think there is a way to exploit the math profitably and its far simpler to do than any card counting method but going so far as to say it turns the game into one having a positive expectation is in my opinion reckless.

Since you're the one coming out here and claiming positive expectation prove it and shut me up.

Otherwise STFU.

If you come out and tell people they can have a positive expectation without explaining how or that perhaps it requires powers of concentration and mental agility which most do not possess you are misleading them.

This is not about whether some smug smartasses are making money. It's about whether your reckless and deficiently informative post is induces others to lose theirs.

its all in thorps book his chapter on baccarat just look it up

I'm not interested in card counting (whether it wins or not) and I am not the one who is has the burden of proof that it works.

Why should I.

Mutters,

Why don't you think about it like this, WHAT IF, everyone that went and risked a dime at a casino game LOST, every time they played. Think about it, every single time someone went to the casino with either $100 or $1,000 they ALWAYS, ALWAYS came home with NOTHING.

How long would the casino stay open.

r/s

The probability of that is so remote there's no point thinking about it.

Originally Posted by mutters

I'm not interested in card counting (whether it wins or not) and I am not the one who is has the burden of proof that it works.

Why should I.

because you are the one who misquoted thorp you should get your facts straight before appealing to authority at least quote him right and to do that look it up

I didn't quote Thorp. Get your facts right.

Originally Posted by mutters

I didn't quote Thorp. Get your facts right.

you invoked his name against profbaccs statement that card counting baccarat gives positive expectations read your own post

Originally Posted by mutters

For what its worth I think there is a way to exploit the math profitably .

You come on this site and piss on everyone else, telling us why this or that won't work, but now you think you have a method.

You only think it will work, which tells us you haven't really done it with real money. Is this your system that you are going to sell for $1 million.

Why don't you go read your own posts and links, then explain why your method is better or different before you go demanding "burden of proof "
on a free web site.

so your mission in life is to be profbacs sidekick.

newsflash. he's big enough and capable enough to do his own talking.

Go away.

Originally Posted by mutters

so your mission in life is to be profbacs sidekick.

newsflash. he's big enough and capable enough to do his own talking.

Go away.

im no ones sidekick hey im just helping you get your facts straight why the offense you should be thanking me when you are wrong simply admit it and be right next time it only hurts you to not admit your mistakes

Originally Posted by mutters

The probability of that is so remote there's no point thinking about it.

Mutters,

How can you answer like that, when every bet has a negative expectation.

Being that you consistently bring up negative expectation, you must believe in the math's negative expectation over the ability to win, i.e. through bet placement, size of bets, ability to move, etc.

r/s