Thread: Posters on this forum! (needs to be a sticky)

Lifted from this thread http://baccaratforums.com/t7034/thread-page-3/ as it will otherwise get buried and lost amongst the mess, posted by DiMenosCor... (It needs to be a sticky, IMO).

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It is not that this forum has a lack of focus. The focus is always there.

Category 1 –

The issue is that many of these folks here do not play. They have no field experience. So what they say and share lack reality with no value. If you are someone who are battling it out in the trenches at a casino frequently, it is a major WTF!

Category 2 -

Adding to the stupidity we also have folks here who create unproven ass crack systems without being tested within a real time environment for a period of time to see if things truly hold up. Thinking those wacky results on paper are what you are going to expect when you wager real money. A false messiah.

Category 3 -

Then you have their followers who are probably newbie’s and think it is gospel - The blind leading the blind. And you wonder why these "free" blind system developers don't play anymore?

Category 4 –

Then you have folks looking for a free lunch. They want something for nothing. They expect things to be handed to them on a silver platter. You know a good example is those folks who ask for Bryan's triggers without reading through the whole thread. The newbies with no self direction and determination. You can hand them a great method of play, teach them your method(s) and show how things can be achieved no matter how big or small, they will still find a way to blame you because either it is not enough or well simply they just fucking suck and shouldn't be doing this in the first place.

Category 5 –

Third, you have schmucks who sells bullshit systems with his bullshit imaginary results with his terrible grasp of English. I mean how many times does Mike have to ban Tom Vu videos for you to get it?

What do all these three kinds of people have in common other than waste your time? They have no respect and understanding of the process, the fight, and the journey.

Category 6 –

And lastly you have an ass like me who make fun of all of these three kinds of folks because well.... they fucking deserve it! <--- The worst kind of them all just because! Heh heh heh. I'm a major prick. There I said it.

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If the cap fits, then wear it.

One thing that never changes is that it seems everyone has a holy grail system! Just like GG, where Turdbo, Spike, Gizmotron, Alltime, XX_Code (eh eh..), James Wendel, Systemaker, Arteinvivo, Ipsumlorem, IvorSmallPenisholding, Tony Dean etc.

Looks like history does repeat itself!

Just because a person doesn't play, or rarely play, I wouldn't say their input is not important.

After all of my simulations and testing over the years I don't really believe anyone's claims anymore. Examples:

1500 dollars every trip at least, bodyguards etc. (Turdbo)
Beats any lotto, any table game etc, (James Wendel)
XX_Code law of series, filtered against law of series Eh..Eh..
Ben Gunn's luck of the Irish system
Winning roulette based on chaos theory (Ivorsmallpenisholding)
Van Spiel der bank pattern (All time)
etc etc

I do believe that the "Holy Grail" for baccarat does not exist and never will be.

The only way to win this game is to have strong bankroll, good MM,

decent bet strategy and low win goal per shoe or per session, period.

Do you have any ideas Punvit? Because I am all out of them!

Punvit must have something

Originally Posted by LuckoftheIrish

Do you have any ideas Punvit? Because I am all out of them!

What I have stated is not the "Holy Grail".

But, it is the only way to win this game.

Originally Posted by joshky

Punvit must have something

I know you've been playing this game for quite a while and I hope you do agreed with me, joshky.

Originally Posted by punvit

I do believe that the "Holy Grail" for baccarat does not exist and never will be.

The only way to win this game is to have strong bankroll, good MM,

decent bet strategy and low win goal per shoe or per session, period.

You are absolutely right , Punvit .

Holy Grail will never exist.

The only way to win 50-50 fair game is good MM , Huge bankroll to give more room during down spirals , betting strategy and low percentage positive expectancies during the session period.
This is the absolute one I've been doing by now through land based casinos.

Without all these requirements , any system must eventually be busted. It is only a matter of time.

Computer simulations answer every things above.

We all experience those Eureka moments, (excluding the leech brigade, who just want to feed off somebody's else’s effort).

Those who have limited time at the tables, are usually void of idea's, think being 20 units down at home is nothing to worry about and will be a breeze during live play.

Live play also helps generate idea's, as you find one approach isn't working, it can aid you in making modifications, take another direction. The more you explore the more options you will have when at the tables, if you have no or limited table experience, it probably wouldn’t occur to the player to consider bet selection overlay for redundancy.

Being away from the tables, gives them blinkered vision as to what really goes on, they are seem to think casinos are nice friendly places that will happily hand over money to some smart thinking gambler and it will be smiles all round, unprepared for the various tactics casinos will apply to throw you off and help you lose.

Non-playing theorists have no idea how they managed to get sucked into any game until it is too late. Those that have played but haven't played for years, usually have no stomach for the battle and it is a battle (there is never a battle at home). When you are sweating on a dollar, the patience is thin.

It's not easy matching of idea's, you have to find somebody on the same wave-length. Hence my taking the Dbl Zz to the tables and winning 12K inside a few weeks, the idea incidently came from systemaker and I'm pretty sure he never played the Dbl Zz the way I did, plus there are a few tweaks that you can apply to that to make it more robust.

Ditto for the Balance v's Unbalanced method, I made £6k off that inside a month (which I still consider a great approach for playing the EC's with Roulette), all I got from others which I emailed regarding that at the time, was it was prone to losing (albeit not often, but still possible) and losing severely when things went wrong. Nobody was able to produce an idea how resolve or overcome the issue, yet I still use an itteration of that today and I still think it is great, even more so when playing the 3 x EC’s. No doubt Imspirit would be able to show it is a losing system over one million spins, who cares about that, it’s all about manipulating your bets during the down-swing.

That is the difference, between a players and tester and those that simply can't see the forest for the trees and those that totally miss the bigger picture, which usually stems from having limited experience or parochial mindset, if it can lose 1% of the time, then avoid at all costs. There is no Holy Grail therefore all testing over 1m outcomes is deemed superflous because it should be obvious what the outcome is going to be.

Egalite,

Very well said, and, it should be a sticky.

r/s

Holy kripe Egalite! I only can think of three and you are able to turn it into six!

Out of them all Category 4 - The Freelunch Seekers are the most dangerous and insidious of them all. This is the most dishonorable bunch. Many of these vile individuals are not going to learn and play. In the most likely case they would take your ideas, call them their own and would sell them as their own systems. They would profit behind your back. These are the Mark Zuckerbergs of the world. I am sure you have seen Bryan's triggers being sold on eBay. Hence my apprehension about releasing some of my own method(s) publicly. I definitelly would not mind sharing my ideas on the journey but I don't think it would be a good idea releasing the end product. I think this is advice and sort of warning to those who create and play their own systems thinking about sharing it so openly with the world. Maybe share privately to those few you communicate with constantly and trust.

As for the Holy Grail existing. I would say both yes and no. Is there a Holy Grail that is one size fits all where all personality types can learn, use and win? No. I definitely don't think that exists since we all have different mentalities, personalities and beliefs. Yet is there a Holy Grail that will fit you? Most definitely and it will probably go through numerous versions before it takes final shape and form.

DiMenoscor Your post was too good to get lost in that waste.

I didn't know Bryan's trigger list was on EBay, that is an absolute JOKE. It is pathetic, nothing personal against Bryan, but when he PM'd them to me, he stated he was after idea's and help. Unfortunately this board is infested with unscrupulous posters and as somebody who has seen a lot of casino action the level of nativity is amazing.

I understand the reluctance about posting stuff on an open board, you don't even have to be a member to read it. I'm sure a few idea's from different "like-minded" sources could develop some kick-ass methods of play. If I opened a private sub-board on this forum with limited members, would you be interested in banging heads in private?

I find it hilarious that the ones who complain the most about the "leech brigade" are also the ones who most vigorously attack those here who are the most generous and helpful.

So, add another category to your list:

Category 7:
The Attention-Starved Elitists

Originally Posted by Egalite

DiMenoscor Your post was too good to get lost in that waste.

I didn't know Bryan's trigger list was on EBay, that is an absolute JOKE. It is pathetic, nothing personal against Bryan, but when he PM'd them to me, he stated he was after idea's and help. Unfortunately this board is infested with unscrupulous posters and as somebody who has seen a lot of casino action the level of nativity is amazing.

I understand the reluctance about posting stuff on an open board, you don't even have to be a member to read it. I'm sure a few idea's from different "like-minded" sources could develop some kick-ass methods of play. If I opened a private sub-board on this forum with limited members, would you be interested in banging heads in private?

I say it is an okay post. Something that you should just read and forget. Doesn't really help anyone. It is most likely stir resentment. Hence folks like Hotdog. Wrote it because some folks think there is a lack of focus here. I just disagree and stated that the focus is there just that some folks looking for an easy quick answer and the folks preying on these poor souls. Casinos want folks who take these easy quick answers and head to their tables so they can build more monstrosities.

A good post would be something that helps you find your answer(s). Not give you the fish but "teaches" you how to fish. Something like this (Okay here is some Attention-Starved Elitist self promotion): Is there really a way to win?. Egalite.... why can't you give me brownie points for that???!?!?!?!?!

Actually I would be more than happy to show what I do. That is open to everyone. You may like my ideas or you may not. Who knows. Don't know until you have seen it. You will just have to find me. If and when you do hopefully we will be playing at the same table.

I can't see why someone's opinion should be a sticky.

If you don't test before playing, you're an idiot.

How can real play possibly be different from testing vis-a-vis results obtained from real shoes or truly random sources?

Real play - and being down - isn't anything new to people who have gambled. If being down 20 units is a killer, you should never gamble.

Contrary to constant badgering, I can state that some posters - well one anyway - of free systems have had many thousands of hours in casinos and choose not to give anything more to them until a working system can be expected.

I personally post what I have tested and that looks good at the moment. A "moment" can be a rather long time - like weeks.

I have often tested something for what amounts to hundreds of shoes - posted-it - and later found a bad-run.

I have posted results - both good and bad. What more could be expected?

A bad-run -whether live or fabricated can happen at any time.

Anyone stupid enough to run with something they find from a stranger and gamble with hard-to-get money BEFORE TESTING IT THEMSELVES is as much an idiot as the guy who steps into a casino without some sort of game-plan and gambles.

Originally Posted by bohebolo

You are absolutely right , Punvit .

Holy Grail will never exist.

The only way to win 50-50 fair game is good MM , Huge bankroll to give more room during down spirals , betting strategy and low percentage positive expectancies during the session period.
This is the absolute one I've been doing by now through land based casinos.

Without all these requirements , any system must eventually be busted. It is only a matter of time.

Computer simulations answer every things above.

From the above one can assume that you have computer sims that show that if you keep on making bigger and bigger bets you can win? Otherwise why the need for a huge bankroll except to make those big bets to recoup. IOW, the theory is that you eventually will win - Martingale should be enough to tell you that it will last for awhile but ultimately you will lose those big recoup bets.

A

I'm not sure what kind of progression "bohebolo" is using.

All I know is, I do prefer flat betting over martingale.

People do have different strategies and ways of how to play this game.

They can do whatever they like, as long as they can win more than lose and be happy with it.

This is the approach I use.

I play in Connecticut. I don't use a mechanical method.....I dont like to get tied into a "must bet" situation which you find yourself in when using a "system"

I try to chart the shoe using the standard Asian method ( 4 rows ) and then underneath I use 2 rows and I look for patterns to bet.

Example for the first 8 hands :

P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P

I chart the 4 rows this way :

PB
BB
BP
PP

Then underneath the scorecard I chart the 2 rows this way

PBBP
BPBP

Then I look for a pattern on the 4 rows going horizontally and confirm the pattern with the 2 rows going horizontally. If they dont confirm, I dont bet.

Sometimes I only make 10 bets a shoe.

I dont bet the first 12 hands since it takes at least 12 hands for a pattern to develop.

Using this method, some parts of the shoe I will be totally out of synch with the shoe and can lose 4, 5, or 6 bets in a row and some parts of the shoe I will be in "synch" with the shoe and win 4, 5 or 6 bets in a row.

The key to success using this method is knowing when I am out of synch with the shoe and just make "virtual" or "paper" bets until I get back in synch with the shoe.

Knowing when I am out of synch with the shoe and I have to start making virtual bets, and spotting the patterns only comes with a lot of practice.

I have an auto shuffler at home and 8 decks of cards and practice 2 to 3 shoes a day and play in the casino 4 or 5 days a week ( I'm retired so I have the time )

Dont ask me what the patterns are......they are all subjective. If you put some time into the above technique and practice over 20 or 30 shoes at home, you will be able to spot the patterns too........and get a feel when you are out of synch with the shoe and you have to stop betting.

The key is to not fight the shoe....if you are out of synch and the patterns arent working, you have to stop betting....if you fight the shoe, you will lose 10 to 15 units.

The key to success is like everything else.....practice, practice and more practice.

The harder you work the luckier you will get.

Good luck.

Originally Posted by Egalite

We all experience those Eureka moments, (excluding the leech brigade, who just want to feed off somebody's else’s effort).

Those who have limited time at the tables, are usually void of idea's, think being 20 units down at home is nothing to worry about and will be a breeze during live play.

Live play also helps generate idea's, as you find one approach isn't working, it can aid you in making modifications, take another direction. The more you explore the more options you will have when at the tables, if you have no or limited table experience, it probably wouldn’t occur to the player to consider bet selection overlay for redundancy.

If the methods learnt from long experience at the tables worked you'd be right. But they don't. Truth is, long term, for all that experience at the table one is no better off and frequently worse off than a newbie who has the discipline and patience to flat bet.

Speaking as someone who has built software to run multi bet selection, multi mm, neg or positive prog systems simultaneously - that is I can simultaneously simulate 100's of systems on the same shoe, look at the results side by side and I don't need Zumma to do it ............pauses for breath..... I know that the things most people think affect the game don't.

The biggest problem on here is that too many people worshipping what I would call false prophets - money management, stop loss in particular. I've named those two because they carry sanitized misleading names and they don't do what they say on the tin. It would help if people would call things what they were e.g Stop Loss is more aptly name Take Loss because thats what really happens. Stop loss could just as well be Stop Win because if the cards turn in your favour after you get up and leave thats what you did.

If it were called Take Loss then maybe more than a few would scratch their heads and wonder how continually taking losses and shutting down the chance of recovery actually helps them win?

People can play and reminisce as much as they like, if you are talking about this game without a basic background in stats, probability (and maybe combinatorics), you will have a deluded sense of what is causative and what is possible.

PS - the you in my post means the forum at large not you personally.

Originally Posted by mutters

If the methods learnt from long experience at the tables worked you'd be right. But they don't. Truth is, long term, for all that experience at the table one is no better off and frequently worse off than a newbie who has the discipline and patience to flat bet.

Speaking as someone who has built software to run multi bet selection, multi mm, neg or positive prog systems simultaneously - that is I can simultaneously simulate 100's of systems on the same shoe, look at the results side by side and I don't need Zumma to do it ............pauses for breath..... I know that the things most people think affect the game don't.

The biggest problem on here is that too many people worshipping what I would call false prophets - money management, stop loss in particular. I've named those two because they carry sanitized misleading names and they don't do what they say on the tin. It would help if people would call things what they were e.g Stop Loss is more aptly name Take Loss because thats what really happens. Stop loss could just as well be Stop Win because if the cards turn in your favour after you get up and leave thats what you did.

If it were called Take Loss then maybe more than a few would scratch their heads and wonder how continually taking losses and shutting down the chance of recovery actually helps them win?

People can play and reminisce as much as they like, if you are talking about this game without a basic background in stats, probability (and maybe combinatorics), you will have a deluded sense of what is causative and what is possible.

PS - the you in my post means the forum at large not you personally.

Actually a stop loss per shoe will make you lose less in the long run.

Originally Posted by tomddxx

Dont ask me what the patterns are......they are all subjective.

Hi Tomddxx, I won't ask you what constitutes your triggers as I also agree they are subjective, but I did notice you record a shoe like I do. However I would like to ask one thing, when your triggers appears, do you bet FOR or AGAINST it's continuance, or perhaps simply bet a sequence of fixed plays.

Originally Posted by DiMenosCor

I say it is an okay post. Something that you should just read and forget. Doesn't really help anyone. It is most likely stir resentment.

Maybe it's because I put myself in Category 6

It's just not true.

Set a conservative take loss and you will hit it more frequently and close off many opportunities for recovery and profit. Set a liberal one and you will recover more often but your losses will be of greater magnitude.

I'd say it's a wash.

Actually it is true. You set a stop loss, you play less hands. You play less hands you lose less in the long run. Pretty simple if you ask me.

If you want to lose less by playing less hands, the logical and simple thing to do would be to set a time (or number of bets) limit.

From my post above in this thread, you can see my style of play is obviously not for everyone. Its subjective ....and you can only get "good" at it by practicing many shoes at home and then playing for minimum bets in the casino until you are familiar with the method.

I wouldnt play in a casino unless I played at least 20 to 30 shoes at home using an auto shuffler. If you cant beat the game at home after 20 or 30 shoes, don't play in the casino or you will get hammered. Try another method.

I guarantee you, if you cant beat the shoes at home, you will get killed in the casino.......no sense in losing real money trying a method thats not meant for you.

As has been pointed out by numerous members, a "mechanical" method will probably fail in the long run ( if someone comes up with a mechanical, profitable method, my hat goes off to you )

So as far as I'm concerned, I have to use some type of subjective method to attack the game. The obvious disadvantage of this is that you cant "back test" a subjective method. Many day traders Ive known also incorporate subjectivity in their trading and override any trading system they use if their gut instinct tell them not to take the trade.

For more info as to how I approach the game, I only flat bet and usually don't bet the first 12 hands of the shoe and usually dont bet the last 12 hands. Since each shoe contains about 74 hands ( excluding ties ) that leaves about 50 hands where I may bet. Out of those 50 hands I will probably bet about 10 to 15 hands ( usually it's about 10 bets )

The basic patterns I look for are a trend in the 4 and 2 row charts such as
XXXXX or OOOOOO or a "chop" such as XXOO , XOXO, OOXX, OXOX, XXOXO,
OXXOXOOX etc etc etc.

This is all very subjective ( especially the "chops" ) and it takes a tremendous amount of practice at home to become familiar with the technique and separate the wheat from the chaff......... and is obviously not meant for "system" players.

My method is not one of those 15 to 20 unit win per shoe methods......its a tough grind. Two days ago I played at Mohegan and won only a half a unit and quit after 2 shoes and yesterday I won 4 units after playing 2 shoes and only made about 15 or 16 bets for both shoes.................baccarat as we all know is a very difficult game to beat.

If I lose 4 units a shoe, I stop betting........as I said before, the key to this method is knowing when you are out of synch with the shoe and to stop betting and make "virtual" bets instead, and then wait until you are back in synch...................obviously this is very subjective as far as when to stop and when to re-start and takes a lot of practice at home dealing from an auto shuffler.

Everyone has different approaches to baccarat...choose the method that fits your personality and bankroll.....but I think any approach to baccarat has to have some type of subjectivity in it.

Originally Posted by mutters

If the methods learnt from long experience at the tables worked you'd be right. But they don't. Truth is, long term, for all that experience at the table one is no better off and frequently worse off than a newbie who has the discipline and patience to flat bet.

Speaking as someone who has built software to run multi bet selection, multi mm, neg or positive prog systems simultaneously - that is I can simultaneously simulate 100's of systems on the same shoe, look at the results side by side and I don't need Zumma to do it ............pauses for breath..... I know that the things most people think affect the game don't.

The biggest problem on here is that too many people worshipping what I would call false prophets - money management, stop loss in particular. I've named those two because they carry sanitized misleading names and they don't do what they say on the tin. It would help if people would call things what they were e.g Stop Loss is more aptly name Take Loss because thats what really happens. Stop loss could just as well be Stop Win because if the cards turn in your favour after you get up and leave thats what you did.

If it were called Take Loss then maybe more than a few would scratch their heads and wonder how continually taking losses and shutting down the chance of recovery actually helps them win?

People can play and reminisce as much as they like, if you are talking about this game without a basic background in stats, probability (and maybe combinatorics), you will have a deluded sense of what is causative and what is possible.

PS - the you in my post means the forum at large not you personally.

MUTTERS,

This biggest problem in here is not fasle prophets, ITS INEXPERIENCE.

In live play if you do not define your stops, someone else will. The ground that you can cover by the stroke of a mouse, is exponetially different from what I can accomplish, with my feet.

Have you ever played live, trying to actually turn a profit, have you put in the time.

I mean NO HARM.

r/s

Originally Posted by Egalite

We all experience those Eureka moments, (excluding the leech brigade, who just want to feed off somebody's else’s effort).

Those who have limited time at the tables, are usually void of idea's, think being 20 units down at home is nothing to worry about and will be a breeze during live play.

Live play also helps generate idea's, as you find one approach isn't working, it can aid you in making modifications, take another direction. The more you explore the more options you will have when at the tables, if you have no or limited table experience, it probably wouldn’t occur to the player to consider bet selection overlay for redundancy.

Being away from the tables, gives them blinkered vision as to what really goes on, they are seem to think casinos are nice friendly places that will happily hand over money to some smart thinking gambler and it will be smiles all round, unprepared for the various tactics casinos will apply to throw you off and help you lose.

Non-playing theorists have no idea how they managed to get sucked into any game until it is too late. Those that have played but haven't played for years, usually have no stomach for the battle and it is a battle (there is never a battle at home). When you are sweating on a dollar, the patience is thin.

It's not easy matching of idea's, you have to find somebody on the same wave-length. Hence my taking the Dbl Zz to the tables and winning 12K inside a few weeks, the idea incidently came from systemaker and I'm pretty sure he never played the Dbl Zz the way I did, plus there are a few tweaks that you can apply to that to make it more robust.

Ditto for the Balance v's Unbalanced method, I made £6k off that inside a month (which I still consider a great approach for playing the EC's with Roulette), all I got from others which I emailed regarding that at the time, was it was prone to losing (albeit not often, but still possible) and losing severely when things went wrong. Nobody was able to produce an idea how resolve or overcome the issue, yet I still use an itteration of that today and I still think it is great, even more so when playing the 3 x EC’s. No doubt Imspirit would be able to show it is a losing system over one million spins, who cares about that, it’s all about manipulating your bets during the down-swing.

That is the difference, between a players and tester and those that simply can't see the forest for the trees and those that totally miss the bigger picture, which usually stems from having limited experience or parochial mindset, if it can lose 1% of the time, then avoid at all costs. There is no Holy Grail therefore all testing over 1m outcomes is deemed superflous because it should be obvious what the outcome is going to be.

thiz isz the most ridiculus thing ive ever read -
u r deluded to think theres any "skill" that players have that testers dont HA -
what - u make it sound like gamblin is some high skill sport dat u need years of training & practice & knowhow & experience. no way, bud - aint no skill needed to lose money. people like me playing 25+ years r no beter than them newbabies playing 2 hours only. both us win some, both of us lose some. u r only pating urself on the butz to think u r any beter than the baby in this game. stop making a arse outa urself by thinkin ur so superier HA HAHA

Originally Posted by Skull

thiz isz the most ridiculus thing ive ever read -
u r deluded to think theres any "skill" that players have that testers dont HA -
what - u make it sound like gamblin is some high skill sport dat u need years of training & practice & knowhow & experience. no way, bud - aint no skill needed to lose money. people like me playing 25+ years r no beter than them newbabies playing 2 hours only. both us win some, both of us lose some. u r only pating urself on the butz to think u r any beter than the baby in this game. stop making a arse outa urself by thinkin ur so superier HA HAHA

You're making an arse out of yourself with your pigeon English. That's why when I'm at the tables I can be the only winner all night out of 50 or so that have come and go, it ain't no freak occurrence either, why sometimes for me to lose it could take hours before the casino finally gets me. I've see so many people come and go, it's like sitting in a departure lounge, yet my guess is only as good as theirs, piss off dumb ass.