Here're some notes from John May's 'Baccarat for the Clueless'.
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Baccarat is beatable through card-counting by monitoring subsets of cards for a potential tie-bet towards the end of a shoe. Unfortunately such advantages occur infrequently, so you'll need a large-enough bankroll to profitably take advantage of those as arise.
Examples of such subsets and their corresponding advantages are given below:
Card subset name: 10's + 5's,
Card Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number 128 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 (of cards of he above value remaining, or the ratio of one rank to the others)
Tie Bet Advantage = 340.30936%
Card subset name: 10's + 6's + 4's,
Card Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number 128 0 0 0 32 0 32 0 0 0
Tie Bet Advantage = 152.01169%
Card subset name: 10's + 8's + 9's,
Card Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 32
Tie Bet Advantage = 88.93232%
Card subset name: 10's + 6's + 7's + 8's,
Card Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number 128 0 0 0 0 0 32 32 32 0
Tie Bet Advantage = 47.61894%
Card subset name: 10's + 3's + 6's + 9's,
Card Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number 128 32 0 32 0 0 32 0 0 32
Tie Bet Advantage = 8.21853%
Card subset name: the even-valued cards,
Card Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number 128 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0
Tie Bet advantage =62.02323%
Card subset name: even-valued cards, with 5's,
Card Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number 128 0 32 0 32 32 32 0 32 0
Tie Bet Advantage = 6.25045%"
Eg, the even-cards subset advantage is relatively easy to count, and a player can expect to gain a 62% advantage approx 1 in 10,000 decisions. You can detect such a situation by assigning a value of +1 to the odd cards. When (and if) your count reaches 160, you know that the average distribution of cards will give you a huge 62% advantage. The beauty of counting baccarat is that there is NO HEAT and although some other subsets are more difficult to monitor, you can record your count and subsets on the baccarat record sheet the casinos provide and no one will have a clue what you are up to! You can also sit out at will and use spreads of $10-$250K with relatively little heat attention. Also baccarat players are treated like VIPs at most casinos and can expect to earn more comps than
BJ players which is an added bonus!
Here's John May's answer to Griffin's argument against a card-counting system for baccarat:
"While the greater part of what these highly respected theorists say is true, it is not impossible to create a card-counting system which can win to a greater extent on the tie bet.
For example, say there are no odd cards remaining in the pack. There are only 5 possible totals:-0,2,4,6,8. The odds of a tie are doubled. You have an advantage of 62% on average.
You can detect such a situation by assigning a value of +1 to odd cards. When (and if) your count reaches 160, you know that the average distribution of cards will give you a huge 62% advantage.
The optimal bet (the bet which best balances risk with returns) is 7.8% of your bankroll. The optimal bet size is so high because the bet is so favourable.
So, given initial bankroll of $50,000 you ought to bet roughly $3800. You would expect to win an amazing $2,356 on average each time you made this bet.
Unfortunately this very favourable opportunity occurs rarely. Assuming we make our last wager having seen all but a generous 8-13 cards we can calculate the opportunity by the following methods: The chance of 8 even cards appearing on the bottom of the deck is mathematically the same as 8 cards off the top. This is given by dividing 416 by 256 (total number of even cards) to determine the chance of one even card appearing, then multiplying this figure by the result of 415 divided by 255, and so on until we reach 404/244. Then take the probabilities of having this extreme subset occur for 8 through to 13 cards, add them up, then divide by 6. It turns out we will encounter an all-even subset roughly once in every 10,000 hands!
This represents an earning per hundred hands of roughly $24. Subtracting the effects of making 10,000 $5 (roughly 1% house edge) table minimum bank wagers, we see that the system earns roughly $19 per hour. Not bad perhaps, but not a particularly good return on investment when we consider the alternative earnings from blackjack and poker."
And another quote from John May:
"Simulation data on computer-perfect analysis of the tie wager shows that if you can find a game where the last hand will be dealt from a 10-card subset, you can obtain a 1% advantage with a 45-1 spread, assuming you can detect favourable situations accurately.
We can therefore deduce that the game can be beaten because baccarat, as a general rule, has nothing like the heat associated with blackjack. You can spread up to the table maximum and down again, indeed you can sit out hands, no one will care. As David Sklansky wrote in Getting The Best Of It "There is not yet any paranoia among the casinos regarding counting...Players can bet anywhere from $5 up to $50,000 at any time. " ($50,000 is actually pretty conservative for bac nowadays). Obviously, if you could only make one $50,000 bet a year with a 100% edge, your
EV for that year is still $50,000.
Naturally, the combination of large bets, an absence of heat, and huge advantages on individual hands, can make the game very profitable."
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Here's an other guy hawking books...
Episode 43 - Baccarat author Byron Hebert, craps author Mickey Day of the Gambler's Book Club interviews at
http://gamblersbookclub.libsyn.com/i...post_id=471602 .