what is advantage play?

[Profbac]

to GR8PLAYER

Good Luck.
I hope it works out for you.

[garnabby]

I hope it works out for you.

That's gr8players' system verbatim... he does what works for him (alone), as might any other player. Casting off the peels of what doesn't work until he reaches the juicy stuff inside.

Over the course of one fairly-finite playing career, how different are the actual outcomes from an other? Though the multiplicative ratio of eg, P's to B's usually tends to even out at 1 : 1 ; certainly not, the simple additive difference of P's and B's, which could often become quite large one way or other.

Perhaps gr8player has over the years, and through careful record-keeping, somehow identified many types of such more-effective differences... as his plays, rather than only the simple one above. If nothing else, maybe he did it by "educated guessing"?

An other, more-fun way to look at this, learning to be lucky. Were there enough guessers, there would always be one player who would end up winning over the others. Therefore, in a field of an infinite number of players, at least one would emerge victorious OVER AN INFINITY OF OUTCOMES... and by then possess the faculty of "perfectly predicting". Implying that somewhere between finity and infinity the players have iterated to the latter. I've stated this in the past as, "The longer you're in the game, the better your chances of winning." So maybe, gr8player was one of the lucky ones, at the start anyway, who happened to last long enough to just "learn to be lucky".

In any event, can anyone deny him the "stage" here? No other poster than he has better and more-gentlemanly withstood my own, and the others', past suspicions and scrutiny.

__________________________________________________ _____________________________

But please do keep it up, Profbac, i'm sure he won't disappoint you either.

[stinsonsmart]

Of all the casino games, besides craps, Baccarat has the lowest house edge. This means that the player has the best odds of winning money playing Baccarat than playing other casino games, such as Blackjack or Roulette since the house edge of the casino is less. When playing Baccarat there are three bets you can make as you can bet on the Player's Hand, the Banker's Hand or the Tie bet. If you want to get more information you may check this link http://www.thebonuscasinos.com/baccarat/

[gr8player]

Hellloooo, G-man! Nice to see you posting again, and I do thank you for your kind words of support and appreciate your keen insights, as per usual.

You know that my Baccarat bet selection process goes a bit further than just "trending the shoe", and that I do look for and "embrace the imbalances", if you will.

There is a reason for this:

My money-management plan is "built around" my bet selection's tendencies and/or variances. I, therefore, am able to utilize my parlay plays in "spots" that are proven rather advantageous for me. "Imbalances" will (usually) provide "clusters" of wins. A great way to either complete a successful session or recoup a tougher one.

I play a patient, calculated game. Every time I sit down to play, EVERY TIME, the casino is in for a "tussle"; I win sometimes, I lose sometimes, but it is ALWAYS a struggle for the casino to get the better of me. I take alot of pride in that, and, IMHO, deservedly so. There is nothing wrong with and no shame in being HAPPY TO WIN. "Positive reinforcement" goes a long, long way in any gaming venture, long-term speaking.

Therein, Profbac, lies the difference between a typical gambler and myself. Learning to recognize and know the difference is up to each individual player.

G-man, always a pleasure, my friend. Be well.

[sparkart]

I have a question (preferably for someone that is pretty savy at math).

I ran a simulation of 500,000 shoes and out of those shoes.. I bust (-64 units) 1366 times. However, out of those shoes, I had an opportunity to win 5-10 units (really depends on the shoe, so for worst case scenario purpose suppose each shoe is +5 units) for 66475 shoes (+332375 units).

To my understanding, the chances of losing -64 units per shoe is: 0.2732%.
The chances of earning +5-10 units per shoe is 13.295%.
Over the long run, this sounds like pretty good odds. Perhaps I am missing something?

edit:
Forgive me but I actually was missing something. Out of 500,000 shoes I would only be risking 64 units with 66,475 shoes. So the chances of losing -64 units per shoe is actually 2.0549%.

[swami]

I firmly believe that overall you must accept the fact that you will lose more bets than you will win. If you think you have a system that wins more than it loses, in the long haul, you will be in for a surprise. The only way you can win is to bet more on the hands that you win than you bet on the hands than you lose. If I lose 54 hands and win 46 hands I can still be a winner, but only if I use some sort of negative progression. At some point that means increasing the bet after a loss. I play Mongoose which is both positive and neg. progression. I can lose many more hands than I win and still come out winner. Mongoose is NOT suitable for every BS, and probably not suitable for any of the well known BS that seem to always eventually end in disaster.

Now, there may be a chorus of flat bet people who will proclaim I am not correct and they win with a flat bet. Perhaps this is true, but I have never seen such a system and I would love to learn of one. For a flat bet to be profitable, you MUST win more bets than you lose. How in the world is this going to be acheived in a game that is always 50-50 and has a casino commission to pay? Sure, in the short term session often this is possible, but overall, I would not think a flat bet can ever win.

A flat better is always subject to drift- the ebb and flow of the curves that occur between wins and losses. Anyway, this is how I see it. love, swami