Thread: what is advantage play?

This guy at lonewolfbaccarat.com is talking about it. Is there such a thing as advantage play for baccarat?

I have been told that a negative expectancy game like baccarat cannot be beat over the long haul.

Originally Posted by distilling1

This guy at lonewolfbaccarat.com is talking about it. Is there such a thing as advantage play for baccarat?

I have been told that a negative expectancy game like baccarat cannot be beat over the long haul.

It's true, but you can beat it over the short haul......

wow, this guy is charging $975, i wonder if luckoftheirish has had the chance to look at this system?

Originally Posted by grassshopper

wow, this guy is charging $975, i wonder if luckoftheirish has had the chance to look at this system?

I think he has enough "garbage", why bother to have one more.

well, as much as i love gambling.....

just enjoy the game... not put family on table.....

by the way my friend put his tuition on the table and now he can't go school...

don't let this happen to you....

Originally Posted by punvit

It's true, but you can beat it over the short haul......

That is called getting lucky.

Advantage play is identifying any bet where the payoff ratio (amount paid
on a win compared to the amont wagered ) is greater than the true
odds of winning.

This is actually what all professional gamblers do.
Blackjack, or baccarat would call it a positive expectation.
Horse racing gamblers call it the underlay vs the overlay,
Sports bettors are betting against a spread.
Poker players are comparing the odds of their card winning to the
amount of money in the pot.

All of these games are negative expectation since the house always takes something for its profit.

As for baccarat, if your bet selection method does not give you more than a 50/50 win, you are not playing with an advantage.
Discipline and money management will help give you the best chanceof surviving a trip to the casino. As Robert DiNiro said in the movie "Casino"
the longer they play, the more they lose.

Originally Posted by distilling1

Is there such a thing as advantage play for baccarat?

That's just a "loaded term" invented by the good scammers, and targetted at the smart "suckers"... the ones who make a life-long, cult-following out of gambling. (It worked in a limited way for BTC because they made a something out of pretending to be so smart as to have the outside world conquered with their nonsense.)

Originally Posted by distilling1

I have been told that a negative expectancy game like baccarat cannot be beat over the long haul.

Like Archer sort of remarked a long time ago here, if you're not trying to win, or believe you or another can't (even though no one has yet provided documentation of any sort of winning)... what are you doing here?

That is called getting lucky.

No, that is not called getting lucky. You will win more than lose if, you have solid bankroll, good MM, discipline and good bet selection.

the longer they play, the more they lose.

That what I meant, "It's true, but you can beat it over the short haul...."

Originally Posted by punvit

No, that is not called getting lucky.



...."

So how do you define luck?

BTW You live in Las Vegas. Take a look at the billion dollar palaces that the casinos have built. Those were built on people trying to win over the short haul.

Money Management discipline etc won't make you a winner. You just lose more slowly. To be a winner you need a method of bet selection that works. Finding that is the challenge.

Originally Posted by distilling1

This guy at lonewolfbaccarat.com is talking about it. Is there such a thing as advantage play for baccarat?

I have been told that a negative expectancy game like baccarat cannot be beat over the long haul.

The long run is probably an amount of hands that you won't live long enough to see. It is possible to win regularly without winning more than 50$ of your bets placed.

Originally Posted by soxfan

The long run is probably an amount of hands that you won't live long enough to see.

Really, and how many people do you know, besides you and me,
(and with your betting method its only a matter of time)
who are lifetime winners at this game. Lets also exclude the scammers trying to sell books, systems, web site memberships etc.

Originally Posted by Profbac

Really, and how many people do you know, besides you and me,
(and with your betting method its only a matter of time)
who are lifetime winners at this game. Lets also exclude the scammers trying to sell books, systems, web site memberships etc.

Actually, I know of another bac player who plays at my local, and he looks to make 2-4 units everyday, plays purple chips and I have yet to see him leave without a profit. There is also an old timer who grinds out a daily profit at the dice table, strictly playing the don't.

Also, there was a cat called himself johnO used to post on gg and he seemed to be a long term winner.

Originally Posted by soxfan

Actually, I know of another bac player who plays at my local, and he looks to make 2-4 units everyday, plays purple chips and I have yet to see him leave without a profit. There is also an old timer who grinds out a daily profit at the dice table, strictly playing the don't.

Also, there was a cat called himself johnO used to post on gg and he seemed to be a long term winner.

OK, you, the the purple chip guy, one or two others. Lets say you are right. I have met some other people using a method similar to mine who are making money with this.
I agree that the game can be beaten. But we are talking about
one in 10,000 people. The Griffin Agency was once quoted as saying that
is the number of regular players who actually find a way to win.
Mostly BJ card counters, but there are others.

No one becomes one of the very few who wins long term without
developing some special skill or method. Simple minded platitudes
won't get you there. That is what I object to.

I've read that the casinos estimate some 2% of table games players are regular winners and I doubt that they are all advantage players. But then they say only about 5% of futures/forex traders make money, so is it luck?

Again, I've posted on these forums for many years and I think those that remember me will attest to the fact that I am sincere and platitudes aren't my thing. I will admit that I could be just lucky, but I have made many multiples of my initial bankroll so I would have to encounter LOTS of closely grouped catastrophic losses to give all that back.

Originally Posted by soxfan

I've read that the casinos estimate some 2% of table games players are regular winners .

Last year Steve Wynn was interviewed on the TV show "60 minutes"
He was asked if anyone ever really wins in the casino.
His answer was "absolutely not, NEVER"

Last year the New York Times Magazine section did a major
piece on internet poker. They wrote that 95% of the players lose, 5% win.

Most people would agree that there is a skill element to that game.

As to Forex or any finacial markets, there really is some fundamental
reason those markets do move. The good traders will tell you that those markets are not totally random. There really is money to be made there.

Originally Posted by Profbac

Last year Steve Wynn was interviewed on the TV show "60 minutes"
He was asked if anyone ever really wins in the casino.
His answer was "absolutely not, NEVER"

Last year the New York Times Magazine section did a major
piece on internet poker. They wrote that 95% of the players lose, 5% win.

Most people would agree that there is a skill element to that game.

As to Forex or any finacial markets, there really is some fundamental
reason those markets do move. The good traders will tell you that those markets are not totally random. There really is money to be made there.

Firstly, the casinos love to reinforce the notion that YOU CAN"T WIN, it's a palliative for all the losers who just want to play for fun. I wonder, though, was he also saying that NO advantage players win as well?

There is certainly an element of skill at poker but if you are the least skilled player at a table then you are at a serious disadvantage, not to mention the rake at ring games. And the fields at major tournaments are so huge that luck players a major part now, as you see with coconuts like that moneymaker cat and that hashem dude, lousy players who got lucky.

Lastly, I worked in finance for years and made lots of money for myself, my firm and clients so I know what that's about. Remember though, those "genius" types who figured they had an advantage player with their Black_Scholes model, and encountered a couple of ten sigma events. Those Long Term capital geniuses nearly brought down the financial system with their "advantage" play.

The largest number of new millionaires last year in the US came out of the hedge fund industry. I think thats a little more than the daily grinder you find in a casino.

Originally Posted by soxfan

Firstly, the casinos love to reinforce the notion that YOU CAN"T WIN, it's a palliative for all the losers who just want to play for fun.

OH, please do expand on this idea.
I walk into a casino and see pictures of people holding million dollar checks for hitting slot machine jackpots.
I thought that was to reinforce the idea that you could win.

According to you, that is not so. Please explain how all that advertising is to reinforce the idea that you, the player, will lose.

Originally Posted by soxfan

Lastly, I worked in finance for years and made lots of money for myself, my firm and clients so I know what that's about. Remember though, those "genius" types who figured they had an advantage player with their Black_Scholes model, and encountered a couple of ten sigma events. Those Long Term capital geniuses nearly brought down the financial system with their "advantage" play.

The one thing that these losing firms had in common was doubling down on losing positions hoping to get even.

Is that were you learned your method of "recovery betting"

Originally Posted by Profbac

OH, please do expand on this idea.
I walk into a casino and see pictures of people holding million dollar checks for hitting slot machine jackpots.
I thought that was to reinforce the idea that you could win.

According to you, that is not so. Please explain how all that advertising is to reinforce the idea that you, the player, will lose.

Yes, they do advertise those who win big at slots, keno or maybe carribean stud jackpots. It wouldn't be such a draw to put up a picture of an oldtimer who grinds out a 100-150$ at the dice table every day to supplement his fixed income.

Originally Posted by Profbac

So how do you define luck?

I do not play and only rely on "luck".

Money Management discipline etc won't make you a winner.

You'll need all these together to be the winner: bankroll, good MM, discipline and good bet selection.

Tell 'em, Punvit. You've got it, my friend.

Advantage play? Doesn't exist, at least not "bet selection-wise".

But, can't you guys see, KNOWING THAT is half the battle to getting to YOUR TRUE ADVANTAGE:

YOU.

Are you about to let a non-thinking, decision-spewing "Bac table" beat you out of your money? The table can't think, can't react, can't make not one single decision; yet, it gets the best of us. Why do you think that is?

The house edge? What, that 1%?! A mere bag of shells, simply the cost of doing business. Heck, what business DOESN'T have built-in expenses? Nah, it's not the house edge that's beating you. Let it go.

Money? Sure, just look at all those chips in the dealer's rack. How are you supposed to win against all of that? Answer: Simple, you're not playing against all of that, nor the dealer. Let it go.

Continuity? Cards after cards, decisions after decisions.....is it just all too much to think about? Er, nope. Learn to "no-bet" and then learn to "detach yourself" from the proceedings when you're not involved. Let it go.

No, my friends, the house's biggest edge is the one they have in YOU.

Do you want to win, long-term, at this game? Read on:

Learn some Patience.

Take your time at the table. It's not a race. Await the better table conditions, where the trends are holding best.

Learn some Discipline.

Pick a few trending plays and stick with them. Master them. Learn to spot them "a mile away", so you're on them at their start.

Learn some Money-Management.

Easy does it. If you're not doing alot of flat-betting, then you're probably doing too much "progressing" in your bet amounts. Just because you lost your last bet or two, that's never a good excuse to increase your bet size. Learn to use your money to take best advantage of your trending bet selections; for example, I like to parlay certain winning bets (like 2-hole onto 3-hole, or "new top" streak bet onto next repeater).

Learn some Bet Selection.

What works best for your style of play? Anti? Streak bets? Look, when all is said and done, it's all just a Banker or Player bet, and it's all just same or opposite. Not much mystery there, nor any advantage to be had. At least, not in that one next play. But, in your congregate of plays, therein should be some sort of advantage for you, or why bother?
For example, here's one of my most favorite trending plays (I call it the "domination"):

P P P B P P B.....I'm betting for the Player here, and will continue to do so until 2 consecutive losses. Is there any sort of advantage to this play? Nope, certainly not mathematically. But, for me, this play provides me multiple hits when it does succeed, more than making up for the one-unit losses when it doesn't.

And that pretty much sums up my Bac play. I attempt to make more when my trends are hitting and lose less when they're not.

That's the Grail. Losing as little as possible on the losers, be them individual bets or even sessions; and winning more when the trends are hitting, be them individual bets or even sessions.

That's it. And that is ALL UP TO YOU. It is your responsibility to win. Why else would you sit down to play? Who is it, exactly, that is in charge of your money while your playing? Is it the "non-thinking" table? Or is it YOU? And, most inportantly, just who do you think is going to get the best of who? You or the table? It's your move......

If you didn't know what a "platitude" was, just reread the post before this one.

BTW that mere 1% is what pays for those billion dollar palaces to be built.

Originally Posted by Profbac

If you didn't know what a "platitude" was, just reread the post before this one.

BTW that mere 1% is what pays for those billion dollar palaces to be built.

???!!!!......

Originally Posted by gr8player

Tell 'em, Punvit. You've got it, my friend.

Advantage play? Doesn't exist, at least not "bet selection-wise".

But, can't you guys see, KNOWING THAT is half the battle to getting to YOUR TRUE ADVANTAGE:

YOU.

Are you about to let a non-thinking, decision-spewing "Bac table" beat you out of your money? The table can't think, can't react, can't make not one single decision; yet, it gets the best of us. Why do you think that is?

The house edge? What, that 1%?! A mere bag of shells, simply the cost of doing business. Heck, what business DOESN'T have built-in expenses? Nah, it's not the house edge that's beating you. Let it go.

Money? Sure, just look at all those chips in the dealer's rack. How are you supposed to win against all of that? Answer: Simple, you're not playing against all of that, nor the dealer. Let it go.

Continuity? Cards after cards, decisions after decisions.....is it just all too much to think about? Er, nope. Learn to "no-bet" and then learn to "detach yourself" from the proceedings when you're not involved. Let it go.

No, my friends, the house's biggest edge is the one they have in YOU.

Do you want to win, long-term, at this game? Read on:

Learn some Patience.

Take your time at the table. It's not a race. Await the better table conditions, where the trends are holding best.

Learn some Discipline.

Pick a few trending plays and stick with them. Master them. Learn to spot them "a mile away", so you're on them at their start.

Learn some Money-Management.

Easy does it. If you're not doing alot of flat-betting, then you're probably doing too much "progressing" in your bet amounts. Just because you lost your last bet or two, that's never a good excuse to increase your bet size. Learn to use your money to take best advantage of your trending bet selections; for example, I like to parlay certain winning bets (like 2-hole onto 3-hole, or "new top" streak bet onto next repeater).

Learn some Bet Selection.

What works best for your style of play? Anti? Streak bets? Look, when all is said and done, it's all just a Banker or Player bet, and it's all just same or opposite. Not much mystery there, nor any advantage to be had. At least, not in that one next play. But, in your congregate of plays, therein should be some sort of advantage for you, or why bother?
For example, here's one of my most favorite trending plays (I call it the "domination"):

P P P B P P B.....I'm betting for the Player here, and will continue to do so until 2 consecutive losses. Is there any sort of advantage to this play? Nope, certainly not mathematically. But, for me, this play provides me multiple hits when it does succeed, more than making up for the one-unit losses when it doesn't.

And that pretty much sums up my Bac play. I attempt to make more when my trends are hitting and lose less when they're not.

That's the Grail. Losing as little as possible on the losers, be them individual bets or even sessions; and winning more when the trends are hitting, be them individual bets or even sessions.

That's it. And that is ALL UP TO YOU. It is your responsibility to win. Why else would you sit down to play? Who is it, exactly, that is in charge of your money while your playing? Is it the "non-thinking" table? Or is it YOU? And, most inportantly, just who do you think is going to get the best of who? You or the table? It's your move......

Thank you for your "in-depth" information. Hope, they will get it this time.

Profbac, I hope all is well with you.

Platitude? I'm sorry you view my post as such, my friend. While it is true, I do seem to strike the same chords in my play, continuously; but I see nothing wrong with some repetition. It only serves as solid reinforcement, no? What's wrong with that?

But I'm here, Profbac, not as your entertainment nor for your amusement; if it is that you seek, try going to the movies. I espouse my theories on this game, and, rest assured, these same theories have served me very well. Might they do the same for someone else reading my posts? Of that I cannot be sure, but I do know, THAT is why I post here.

Oh, and no, Profbac, those "billion dollar palaces" were NOT built from the 1% house edge.

They were built from gamblers. Gamblers who wouldn't know a house edge from a house maid.

those "billion dollar palaces" were NOT built from the 1% house edge.

They were built from gamblers. Gamblers who wouldn't know a house edge from a house maid.

I totally agreed with you.

Originally Posted by gr8player

Profbac, I hope all is well with you.

Oh, and no, Profbac, those "billion dollar palaces" were NOT built from the 1% house edge.

They were built from gamblers. Gamblers who wouldn't know a house edge from a house maid.

Are you a gambler?

Do you think that following the advice in your post makes you anything less than a gambler?

so, after all this talk about "advantage play" has anybody seen what this guy at : lonewolfbaccarat.com is selling?

Profbac: >Are you a gambler? Do you think that following the advice in your post makes you anything less than a gambler?<

Do you know anything of me or my play, Profbac? Do I appear to you as a typical gambler?

If that is, in fact, the case, then I've failed in relaying my message here in this Forum. I happen to respect your opinion, Profbac, and if I'm seen as nothing more than a gambler after you've perused my posts, then my posts are not serving their intended purposes.

And, with my busy schedule, I simply haven't the time to "fritter away" here in this Forum. I would've hoped for more. Much more.

Anyhow, to answer your qestion; no, I do not see myself as a gambler, as my game is a much more calculated and pre-planned approach than a typical gambler would ever care to think about.

While we all do, in the end, "puts our money down and takes our chances"; I am of the opinion that not all bets/approaches/theories are "created equally".

I believe there are, in fact, BETTER WAYS to play this Baccarat game. I also happen to firmly believe that I utilize a few of those BETTER WAYS each and every time I sit down to play a session of Baccarat.

But, my friend, that is only MY opinion.

Acccording to what I'm reading from you in this thread, Profbac, your opinion appears vastly different. I'm fine with that; you're entitled to your own opinion. I might, if I were you, however, re-read some of my posts, both here and GG, and then, possibly and only if deemed necessary, re-think my position.