Thread: A few questions to professional baccarat players in this forum.

Hi

Before I review my system through PM I have a few questions

1) Is baccarat beatable?
2) What is your bankroll (unit size)to start playing for living?
3) How many in here actually play baccarat for living?
4) How do you balance your lifestyle with baccarat?
5) What are your best advices to play as a pro?
6) After 150 lives shoe play (WIN 103 shoes, most 6-7 units, LOST 25 shoes with stop lost at -5 units, BREAK EVEN 23 shoes), I average 2 units per shoe, Is that good enough to go play as pro?

After trial and errors, cost me around $60,000. I'm hoping this is the one system I've been looking for. It comebines with Bryan triggers and a little big of my own.

feel free to comment..

Thanks
Skylyne

Before I open my trap, I have a question. Do you have a steady job right now?

Originally Posted by DiMenosCor

Before I open my trap, I have a question. Do you have a steady job right now?

Thanks for your comment.

I don't understand what you mean by open your trap?

Yes, I do have a job, but business has been kinda slow, and I'm able to bring my laptop where I can play at www.betphoenix.com

skylyne

You ask the right questions. For now, here is what you need to know:

1. 150 shoes is not at all sufficient to conclude that you have a system that overcomes the house edge. You need to do some study of statistics and probability.

2. If you do this professionally, and take a serious loss, how will you replace that loss. The best answer is that you have another income source.

3. How much money do you need to live on.
I have been meeting people who tell me they are professional poker players. They earn $500 to $700 per week, sitting in the casino 60 hours a week and they are happy. Many people would be better off with a real job.

4. I can tell you that once you start doing this full time, it is no longer fun. Your biggest problem will be having taken yourself out of the mainstream job market, with no good explanation that an employer would ever want to hear.


My advice: Keep your day job and keep working on your system.

The game is beatable. But those who are doing it are not sharing or selling their method. Bryan is the one exception .

Originally Posted by skylynesr

Hi

Before I review my system through PM I have a few questions

1) Is baccarat beatable?
2) What is your bankroll (unit size)to start playing for living?
3) How many in here actually play baccarat for living?
4) How do you balance your lifestyle with baccarat?
5) What are your best advices to play as a pro?
6) After 150 lives shoe play (WIN 103 shoes, most 6-7 units, LOST 25 shoes with stop lost at -5 units, BREAK EVEN 23 shoes), I average 2 units per shoe, Is that good enough to go play as pro?

After trial and errors, cost me around $60,000. I'm hoping this is the one system I've been looking for. It comebines with Bryan triggers and a little big of my own.

feel free to comment..

Thanks
Skylyne

1. Uhhh... I will more likely say that baccarat is playable as opposed to beatable. With the combination of fixed number of cards, fixed rules and plus that you only make moves when you are ready make baccarat a very playable and profitable game. The thing most important is not about beating baccarat because really there is nothing to beat since you are not playing against the casino (Blackjack) or Poker (other players). Mastering speculation fundamentals (this is a whole new discussion and thread in itself) and yourself are key to being a Consistently Profitable Player (CPP).

2. For a "living?" Hmmm.... for me personally is $2,500 at a $50 Midi-Baccarat table. I heard from somewhere that the formula is 35X the table minimum as the bankroll. I say fiddle around and discover your own number you can work with.

3. I see myself as a "semi-pro" since I only do this from Friday to Sunday each weekend at an actual physical casino as opposed to doing this online. I avoid online baccarat because personally I want to stay sane. I don't need it in my face 24/7 where ever and when ever. I would go nuts. If you read Josh Axelrad's Repeat Until Rich it put things into perspective. He wasn't a baccarat player but he was a blackjack card counter who did very well for himself working with a professional card counting team. The guy was truly kicking ass when playing at the casinos. Yet when he moved himself over to online poker, it became a total obsession and blew it all because it was always in his face so it became a problem for him.

Plus for me I like the feeling of the chips in my hand. Flirting with the waitresses and enjoying and sucking up the overall casino experience. When and if I hit my target(s) I like to experience the restaurants. If you regularly head to Vegas you will know what I mean!

4. How do I find balance? For me is to NEVER play online baccarat. Plus also have hobbies. For me is traveling, outdoor bootcamp classes and discovering restaurants.

5. Best advice? Hmmm.... Never play what I call 9/11 or Skyscraper bets. In other words don't throw down big bets. It is both terrible if you win or lose. Because if you win, you get overconfident and you will most likely place another likely huge bet. It is great if you win but if you lose, it can really damage your psyche even when you have a sound and consistently profitable method. Also separate your emotions from the game and never get to the point where you get overly excited. I have seen this many times at the baccarat tables with all that screaming and yelling. You want to be a player and not a gambler.

Since I like playing at a $50 table making only 1 to 2 unit per bet is more than enough. That is $50 to $100 per bet. My profit target per shoe is 5 to 8 units. Play three to five shoes, please do the math. You will like it.

To go pro it takes time. First you really have to truly love this game. In other words, making money and focusing on the end result are not important to me. What is important to me is about the process (another whole new discussion and thread!) If you are a beginner, expect to be not profitable for a few months. Yet please keep at it. Remember it is all about the process.

And yes please keep your regular job.

The only employer who will actually like that you do this if you are looking to work at a proprietary trading firm as a prop trader. Other than that, the regular corporate world will balk because the folks are risk averse and hate any form of independence and self-sufficiency.

diminiscor & profbac

Thanks for all your value ideas. Wish the best of luck to you.

Skylyne

I think a better way to ask instead of is baccarat beatable is: Can you make money consistently in baccarat. The answer is YES.

And 150 shoes definitely not enough. For me, that is probably around 1.5 months of play. Win consistently for 6 months, then, you are nearer.... After 1 year, I think you are more or less ready..

And Profbac mentioned it well. how will you replace loss when you suffer a losing streak and what sort of income you are looking at when playing pro.

When I play pro, I have a year of saving sitting in the bank. That is based on what I used to draw in my last job. In additional, I have 200 units for me to play. If I lost that 200 units, nothing changed. I still can get by with my saving and find a job again. I think this is important, in my view, at least you have something to fall back on.

Next, what is your expectation? Many people set unrealistic target. There are millions to be won in the casino, can you win them all? I think a good starting point would be 1.5-2 times what you used to draw in your day job. If you are winning just what you make in your day job, then, you are better off staying at that job. Why take the risk?

I started with 1.5 times of what I make in day job, divided them with the number of trips to casino, then, the figure becomes small and achievable. Does that consistently and when you think you are ready to move up a level, then 2 times, 3 times and so on....

All these seem like small and simple things, but, to me, setting them right lead to what I have achieved so far.

Ur yes did not realise this was a gambling site, I guess I don't belong here since I don't gamble stupid me, another one of those shooting of into something else ideas, sorry folks however if anyone knows a good site for just forum talks on world debate please let me know.

Originally Posted by Bryan

I think a better way to ask instead of is baccarat beatable is: Can you make money consistently in baccarat. The answer is YES.

And 150 shoes definitely not enough. For me, that is probably around 1.5 months of play. Win consistently for 6 months, then, you are nearer.... After 1 year, I think you are more or less ready..

And Profbac mentioned it well. how will you replace loss when you suffer a losing streak and what sort of income you are looking at when playing pro.

When I play pro, I have a year of saving sitting in the bank. That is based on what I used to draw in my last job. In additional, I have 200 units for me to play. If I lost that 200 units, nothing changed. I still can get by with my saving and find a job again. I think this is important, in my view, at least you have something to fall back on.

Next, what is your expectation? Many people set unrealistic target. There are millions to be won in the casino, can you win them all? I think a good starting point would be 1.5-2 times what you used to draw in your day job. If you are winning just what you make in your day job, then, you are better off staying at that job. Why take the risk?

I started with 1.5 times of what I make in day job, divided them with the number of trips to casino, then, the figure becomes small and achievable. Does that consistently and when you think you are ready to move up a level, then 2 times, 3 times and so on....

All these seem like small and simple things, but, to me, setting them right lead to what I have achieved so far.

I like your style, Bryan.

Originally Posted by Bryan

I think a better way to ask instead of is baccarat beatable is: Can you make money consistently in baccarat. The answer is YES.

And 150 shoes definitely not enough. For me, that is probably around 1.5 months of play. Win consistently for 6 months, then, you are nearer.... After 1 year, I think you are more or less ready..

And Profbac mentioned it well. how will you replace loss when you suffer a losing streak and what sort of income you are looking at when playing pro.

When I play pro, I have a year of saving sitting in the bank. That is based on what I used to draw in my last job. In additional, I have 200 units for me to play. If I lost that 200 units, nothing changed. I still can get by with my saving and find a job again. I think this is important, in my view, at least you have something to fall back on.

Next, what is your expectation? Many people set unrealistic target. There are millions to be won in the casino, can you win them all? I think a good starting point would be 1.5-2 times what you used to draw in your day job. If you are winning just what you make in your day job, then, you are better off staying at that job. Why take the risk?

I started with 1.5 times of what I make in day job, divided them with the number of trips to casino, then, the figure becomes small and achievable. Does that consistently and when you think you are ready to move up a level, then 2 times, 3 times and so on....

All these seem like small and simple things, but, to me, setting them right lead to what I have achieved so far.

Thanks for your value advice.


Best of luck to you
Skylyne

Originally Posted by skylynesr

1) Is baccarat beatable?

The answer to this question really depends on your definition of "beatable." If you were to ask, Is blackjack beatable? that would be a clear question to which one could give a clear answer. But if you ask the same question for baccarat I have to know what you mean by beatable.

If you are asking, can baccarat be beat through various money management systems, gambling system, streak analysis, or simply by using your best hunches instincts and intuitions, the answer is no. If the answer to that were yes then casinos would long be out of biz, don't yo think so?

But if you ask if there is any way to make money from baccarat, by any means necessary, then the answer is... well, yes. When I say, by any means necessary, I am expanding the means to beat the game but I am not taking about hitting the dealer with a baseball bat and running off with the money. But I am still expanding the means quite a bit and those means include "strategies" that range from unorthodox, to say the least, and all the way to plain criminal. But if you ask me, the legitimacy of casino business as a whole is questionable, anyway. Different topic...

To give you a hint of what I mean...

Some casinos have very bad procedures. Some of these procedures occasionally lead to situations that good players recognize and know how to act on. So, let me give you an example.

Imagine that you were able to track all the cards that were dealt out of the shoe and the dealer has just dealt the round preceding the final round. How would you know that this is the one before last round? Well, you counted all the cards and you know how many are left in the shoe. You know the position of the cut card (how many cards from the back) and because you tracked all the cards you know exactly which cards are left in the shoe. Let's say there are 9 cards left inside. Now, as you know, each deck of cards contains 52 cards of which 16 are 0-value cards in baccarat. So, it is theoretically possible that all 9 remaining cards would be 0's.

I don't know what advice anyone else would give you, but at this point, if this were to happen, I would advise you to put all the money that you own to your name on a tie bet. I mean, everything... your house, your car, your life savings, your retirement money, do a cash advance on your credit cards, take a marker, borrow from friends and family and put it all on a tie bet. Then wait for the damn cards to come out, take your winning and get the hell out of the casino.

Now, would you really wait around the casino for this exact opportunity to present itself. The answer is, no. Obviously, there is a theoretical possibility that the last 9 cards will be all 0's is so small that you could wait a lifetime for that to occur. And in practice, waiting around a casino, with a suitcase full of cash, waiting for the opportune moment to bet it all is just not an option.

So, why do I bother mentioning this, at all?

First of all, I want to give you an idea of what I'm talking about. I have no intention to spill the beans on a public forum and tell the world some of the best methods that can actually be used to beat casinos. I'd have absolutely nothing to gain by doing so. But methods do exist and the folks that are using them are a minority.

Also, one doesn't always necessarily have to wait for things to happen, in casinos. Some joints have such bad procedures I can train any competent dealer to make things happen for me, so I don't need to wait.

There are definitely other scenarios that are by far more practical, less suspicious and that have stood the test of time. The scenario described here is like a hurricane. Casino folks would definitely notice that some lucky bastard put down a humongous tie bet on the last hand and won the biggest score in history. A tie bet is a sucker bet (I hope we all agree) and this just doesn't happen. But there are other scenarios that don't raise eyebrows. Speaking figuratively, it would be like finding a leaky pipe and placing a bucket under it. Who would ever notice? As long as all the other gamblers keep losing, the casino would never know there's a glitch in their system.

Originally Posted by skylynesr

After trial and errors, cost me around $60,000. I'm hoping this is the one system I've been looking for.

It sounds to me that the $60k still didn't convince you. What system? You're dreaming.

In my opinion there is no mechanical system which can beat baccarat in the long run. That is not to say that knowledge of various systems is not helpful. It's good to look at the shoe from various angles. In the end baccarat is a game of money management and patience. Here's some rules of thumb I try to keep in mind.

1. There is no such thing as a sure thing in baccarat. Keep that in mind when choosing your bet size.

2. Press with profit. If you really like a hand and you want to take a shot at a bigger bet, do it with profit--not buy-in.

3. Dont chase losses--this is where patience and discipline come in.

4. Never ever bet against a run. Runs are unpredictable in length. Betting against a run in a good way to kill your bank roll. You donthaveto bet with the run, but dont bet against it.

5.When keeping a scorecard vertically, concentrate on the first three rows in the column. This is where your better bets will be. example second banker and second players.

6. Dont be superstitous.

7. Be greedy, but be smart. If you are hot, take advantage of it. But know when you are no longer hot and bow out then.

8. Always lock in some profit. For example, you are up $300. $200 is an acceptable win. Pocket your buy-in and play with the $100. If you get cold you still have locked in a profit. If you continue to be hot you could have a really great shoe.

9. Play your game and dont follow the money. Just because someone pushes out a huge bet doesnt mean you should follow suit. As a matter of fact it may be time to sit back and watch a few hands because a train wreck may be getting ready to occur.

10.Dont bet every hand. As a matter of fact 20-25% is probably a good bet rate.

Im sure not everyone agrees--but it is a good rule of thumb to develop your own rules of thumb just as simple reminders during the heat of action.

Skylyne,
Baccarat is Beatable!! and there is a Sure Bet If you know what you are
doing.

The best advice there is, is to practice, practice, practice and never get tired of of doing it!..then you will see the fruits of your labor

To me, all the system out there is BullSh!T if you want to be successful to this game you have to make your own system.

R.

I always believe that nothing is impossible. NOTHING. "Impossible" is a word thrown about by weak men.

Originally Posted by joshky

I always believe that nothing is impossible. NOTHING. "Impossible" is a word thrown about by weak men.

Great philosophy!

Now tell me, how would it be possible to walk away form the North Pole headed further towards the north?

Originally Posted by skylynesr

Thanks for your comment.

I don't understand what you mean by open your trap?

Yes, I do have a job, but business has been kinda slow, and I'm able to bring my laptop where I can play at www.betphoenix.com

skylyne

this funny !!!
full time at "betphonenix"

[QUOTE=luckynine;22863]Skylyne,
Baccarat is Beatable!! and there is a Sure Bet If you know what you are
doing.

I wish you would share your "sure bet". Then we could all go to the casino and come home millionaires.

Mr. Pink. What kind of name is that?.
Sounds like a reference to one of Quintin Tarantinos movies.

Originally Posted by luckynine

if you want to be successful to this game you have to make your own system.

So, this means that with 6.5 billion people in the world there should also be 6.5 billion individual baccarat winning systems.

Originally Posted by Profbac

Mr. Pink. What kind of name is that?.
Sounds like a reference to one of Quintin Tarantinos movies.

Correct! I don't tip.

There are times when you are learning a system or various systems, you also end up "discovering" another system within the system you are trying to learn and understand. If you are lucky (or if you look and work hard enough) you end up finding two or three methods/systems from that one system alone. From there you can tweak and create your own setups where you can understand and work with.

Like what Ed Seykota stated in the first The Market Wizards, "There is no best system, any more than there is a best car. There might, however, be a best car for you." That is the part that brings the most joy - discovering what works best for you before wagering real money. Being at the casino laying it on, battling out and seeing things take shape are icing on the cake.

Originally Posted by MrPink

If you are asking, can baccarat be beat through various money management systems, gambling system, streak analysis, or simply by using your best hunches instincts and intuitions, the answer is no. If the answer to that were yes then casinos would long be out of biz, don't yo think so?

To give you a hint of what I mean...

Do us all a favour, skip the hints.

Originally Posted by MrPink

Some casinos have very bad procedures. Some of these procedures occasionally lead to situations that good players recognize and know how to act on. So, let me give you an example.

Imagine that you were able to track all the cards that were dealt out of the shoe and the dealer has just dealt the round preceding the final round. How would you know that this is the one before last round? Well, you counted all the cards and you know how many are left in the shoe. You know the position of the cut card (how many cards from the back) and because you tracked all the cards you know exactly which cards are left in the shoe. Let's say there are 9 cards left inside. Now, as you know, each deck of cards contains 52 cards of which 16 are 0-value cards in baccarat. So, it is theoretically possible that all 9 remaining cards would be 0's.

Fine it is rich in tens, if not you have to pick one side and you have no idea which side will get which cards. If you suggest mentally tracking the shoe, you would be better off playing BJ.

Originally Posted by MrPink

I don't know what advice anyone else would give you, but at this point, if this were to happen, I would advise you to put all the money that you own to your name on a tie bet. I mean, everything... your house, your car, your life savings, your retirement money, do a cash advance on your credit cards, take a marker, borrow from friends and family and put it all on a tie bet. Then wait for the damn cards to come out, take your winning and get the hell out of the casino.

Would anybody be so stupid to partake in such as risk, knowing they might have missed a card, got the cut wrong?

Now, would you really wait around the casino for this exact opportunity to present itself. The answer is, no. Obviously, there is a theoretical possibility that the last 9 cards will be all 0's is so small that you could wait a lifetime for that to occur. And in practice, waiting around a casino, with a suitcase full of cash, waiting for the opportune moment to bet it all is just not an option.

So, why do I bother mentioning this, at all?

I wonder also, entertainment purposes perhaps, titlation, reel them in, confuse people with flimflam?

First of all, I want to give you an idea of what I'm talking about. I have no intention to spill the beans on a public forum and tell the world some of the best methods that can actually be used to beat casinos. I'd have absolutely nothing to gain by doing so. But methods do exist and the folks that are using them are a minority.

Then why mention it at all? This sort of posts and others you have made are reminiscent of somebody else who used to frequent a few gambling sites, lots of waffle, little substance, "I know something you don't", "pass me the pedestal".

There are definitely other scenarios that are by far more practical, less suspicious and that have stood the test of time. The scenario described here is like a hurricane. Casino folks would definitely notice that some lucky bastard put down a humongous tie bet on the last hand and won the biggest score in history. A tie bet is a sucker bet (I hope we all agree) and this just doesn't happen. But there are other scenarios that don't raise eyebrows. Speaking figuratively, it would be like finding a leaky pipe and placing a bucket under it. Who would ever notice? As long as all the other gamblers keep losing, the casino would never know there's a glitch in their system.

So now you probably have made a few readers thirsty or holding buckets, what you going to do now mr pink, let them drink, wait for the PM's, or let them watch the water trickle away?

Originally Posted by Egalite

Do us all a favour, skip the hints.

Sorry, I didn't realize I had to spoon feed all the information. Are hints too mentally challenging?

Originally Posted by Egalite

Fine it is rich in tens, if not you have to pick one side and you have no idea which side will get which cards. If you suggest mentally tracking the shoe, you would be better off playing BJ.

You definitely would be better off playing BJ. As far as mentally tracking, I never suggested that. In baccarat players are allowed to use any log charts they want. You can bring a printout of all the cards and cross off which ones are dealt. The casino doesn't care. And that should give people a pretty good idea how helpful it is to count cards, or to track past results in baccarat.

Originally Posted by Egalite

Would anybody be so stupid to partake in such as risk, knowing they might have missed a card, got the cut wrong?

Interestingly, there's not a shortage of people that are stupid enough to come back to the casino over and over again and blow their life savings over a series of uncertain future events. But you are saying that it would be stupid to put down money on a sure thing.

People don't understand how the house advantage really works, in casino games. But the short explanation is that you take by far less risk by putting a big wager on one single round than splitting that wager into a series of smaller bets. The reason is because on a single round (let's say in baccarat) the probability of winning a single wager is almost 50% (45.86% for a banker bet). So, with a single bet you CAN win and walk away. But over the long run the house advantage kicks in. The more times you bet the more the house has an edge over you.

As far as missing a card on the count, that is a moot point. If one is going to put down a big wager in this hypothetical scenario one better make sure the count (log) is correct.

Originally Posted by Egalite

I'm begining to wonder, entertainment perhaps, titlation, reel them in?

Then why mention it at all? This sort of posts and others you have made are reminiscent of somebody else who used to frequent a few gambling sites, lots of waffel very little substance, I know something you don't, do look up to me, give me attention.

So now you probably have made a few readers thirsty or holding buckets, what you going to do now mr pink, let them drink, wait for the PM's, or let them watch the water trickle away?

What's up with the antagonism? This is a public forum and everyone can pitch in with an opinion.

I can see that your profile currently says that your number of posts is 1. So, you came to this forum, read a few posts and decided to attack me? I don't think so. I think is far more likely you are a registered member that noticed my recent appearance and you just registered another screen name to launch this attack. Just use your standard screen name, if you've got something to say. It's really OK to disagree. No need to hide behind a new alias.

You are attacking me with an accusation that I have some kind of hidden agenda. And what may that be? I ain't selling anything. But I guess I don't quite fit the profile of a "professional baccarat player" that's trying to beat the house with pseudo theories and winning gambling systems. When people dream of beating the casinos they really don't want to hear the facts. They'd rather be comfortably bundled up in their own fantasies. I guess it really rubs you the wrong way when someone tells you there's no way gamblers can break the casinos.

In the future I suggest we take a less antagonistic approach at discussing differences in opinions.

Originally Posted by DiMenosCor

There are times when you are learning a system or various systems, you also end up "discovering" another system within the system you are trying to learn and understand. If you are lucky (or if you look and work hard enough) you end up finding two or three methods/systems from that one system alone. From there you can tweak and create your own setups where you can understand and work with.

Like what Ed Seykota stated in the first The Market Wizards, "There is no best system, any more than there is a best car. There might, however, be a best car for you." That is the part that brings the most joy - discovering what works best for you before wagering real money. Being at the casino laying it on, battling out and seeing things take shape are icing on the cake.

I think I should state very clearly that I don't believe in any betting/gambling systems. I agree with mathematicians that have proved through sound mathematical principles why systems don't work in any games with a negative expectation.

Is it possible for a player win at baccarat? Sure it is! By pure luck it is absolutely possible to win. That is a theoretical possibility that gets decreased by the number of bets a player makes. The more times you bet the chances of winning are decreased. If you really want the best chances of winning you should decided how much money you are willing to commit to gambling in a lifetime, then go to the casino, make a single even money bet (the bet that offer the best odds at winning) and see what happens. If you win you've doubled your money. Then you walk away for good. But no one gambles like that, right?

One of the problems with baccarat is that the game has a very small house edge. This means that it takes may independent trials for the house edge to completely engulf the element of chance. In games with a huge house edge the players lose quickly, only after a few independent trials. But in games with a small house edge the ride takes much longer.

When a player adds a gambling system to this, the system further changes the ride. It usually extends the ride and thus increases the illusion that the player can win. But although the ride may be different it still takes the player to the same destination.

Mr. Pink wrote in paart, "People don't understand how the house advantage really works, in casino games. But the short explanation is that you take by far less risk by putting a big wager on one single round than splitting that wager into a series of smaller bets. The reason is because on a single round (let's say in baccarat) the probability of winning a single wager is almost 50% (45.86% for a banker bet). So, with a single bet you CAN win and walk away. But over the long run the house advantage kicks in. The more times you bet the more the house has an edge over you."

I respectfully disagree. One big bet one time or ten small bets equalling the big bet the odds are the same. You have no greater chance of losing any more of the small bets as the one big bet.

Archer

Originally Posted by MrPink

Great philosophy!

Now tell me, how would it be possible to walk away form the North Pole headed further towards the north?

Many ways, the simplest of which would be to spin around.




P.S. I'm tired now (from other activities), and it's a holiday here in Canada... but i'd love to engage MR.PINK's other replies, another time and place.

He reminds me a bit of that bj-board owner(?) Sonny. Get a load of his(?) link at Mr. Pink (cardsharkonline) on Twitter .

Originally Posted by MrPink

So, you came to this forum, read a few posts and decided to attack me? I don't think so. I think is far more likely you are a registered member that noticed my recent appearance and you just registered another screen name to launch this attack. Just use your standard screen name, if you've got something to say. It's really OK to disagree. No need to hide behind a new alias.

Yes hints are too mentally challenging, their only purpose is titalation of the poster and maybe fun for anybody bored with too much time on their hands, get to the point and tell us all about this "one shot pony" bet we should take.

Originally Posted by garnabby

Originally Posted by MrPink

Now tell me, how would it be possible to walk away form the North Pole headed further towards the north?

Many ways, the simplest of which would be to spin around.

As it turns out, I was actually paraphrasing an analogy used by Professor Stephen Hawking, one of the greatest theoretical physicists of all times. He once used that analogy in a televised interview to describe a meaningless question. I'm sure Stephen would get a kick if he got wind of the fact that his witty remark was overturned by some chap (as the Brits would say) on a baccarat forum.

Originally Posted by garnabby

P.S. I'm tired now (from other activities), and it's a holiday here in Canada... but i'd love to engage MR.PINK's other replies, another time and place.

He reminds me a bit of that bj-board owner(?) Sonny. Get a load of his(?) link at Mr. Pink (cardsharkonline) on Twitter .

I'm not Sonny and I never had a BJ board. But I do have a board on my site CARDSHARK Online and you are welcome to join. There is a small membership fee but if you shoot me am email I will waive that.

You did get the link to my Twitter account correctly. That is me. And I use the Twitter account mostly to announce my blog posts. And while on the subject, you might want to occasionally look at my blog. Last night I just posted a very interesting article about a special kind of casino shoe. But this thread is not about that, so I won't bother you any longer. Have a look, though.

Originally Posted by Archer

Mr. Pink wrote in part,

Originally Posted by MrPink

People don't understand how the house advantage really works, in casino games. But the short explanation is that you take by far less risk by putting a big wager on one single round than splitting that wager into a series of smaller bets. The reason is because on a single round (let's say in baccarat) the probability of winning a single wager is almost 50% (45.86% for a banker bet). So, with a single bet you CAN win and walk away. But over the long run the house advantage kicks in. The more times you bet the more the house has an edge over you.

I respectfully disagree. One big bet one time or ten small bets equalling the big bet the odds are the same. You have no greater chance of losing any more of the small bets as the one big bet.

Archer,

I understand exactly why you think this is so and I understand the logic behind your thinking. I will also admit that I thought the same, as most other people do. But the truth is, what our common sense tells us instinctively, what we believe in our gut to be true, in this case, is incorrect.

Let me be clear, if you have a $100 bankroll and you bet it all on a single bet, your chances of losing that entire bankroll are smaller that your chances of losing that same money if you split it into smaller units and gamble with the same $100 bankroll throughout the evening. The reason is because there's a difference between the "bankroll money" and the "action money."

This is described in various gambling books, and I am simply paraphrasing what other published authors and authorities on gambling tell us.

I feel I would be diluting this thread if I went into too many details about this, but perhaps we can start another thread, just about that. It would be an interesting discussion.

What I can suggest is that you visit Michael Shackleford's excellent site, The Wizard of Odds. Mr. Shackleford is the world's #1 authority on math for gambling. There is a page on his site where you can ask him questions. If your question is short there is a good chance he will respond, with mathematical proof. But just don't ask him anything about gambling systems, because he will ignore your inquiry. Keep it short and you'll get your answer from the #1 guy that gets paid big bucks to do this kind of stuff for the biggest casinos around the world...

...and if Mike says I'm wrong I'll buy you a beer. See, that's a bet I can make because I know I will not lose. That's basically how I "gamble."

Originally Posted by Egalite

I find that IRONIC.

Yes hints are too mentally challenging, their only purpose is titalation of the poster and maybe fun for anybody bored with too much time on their hands, get to the point and tell us all about this "one shot pony" bet we should take.

Egalite,

I think you and I got off on the wrong foot. I must have said something that rubbed you the wrong way or perhaps you just don't like what I am saying or perhaps even how I'm phrasing it. The truth is, I am not here to argue and/or create bad vibes. I do have strong opinions and they will definitely be conflicting with opinions of people that think they can break the casinos by employing various gambling systems.

I am not going to give you a "one shot pony bet you should take" because there are no simple solutions to complex issues.

I don't use hints to irritate people or to serve some hidden agendas that you think I might have. If I want to contribute to a conversation that someone else started but I don't want to plaster the internet with information that is generally difficult to obtain, I will reserve the right to use hints.

Lastly, I think that a forum where all members agree in harmony is a boring place. If you want to have an interesting discussion you have to have different points of view. You might not agree with that, and ironically, I think that's exactly what would make it interesting.

MrPink,

Originally Posted by MrPink

As it turns out, I was actually paraphrasing an analogy used by Professor Stephen Hawking, one of the greatest theoretical physicists of all times.

Yes; but even he admitted that the bulk of his own mental fame could somewhat lay on his physical condition. And by thusly-purposely omitting the bulk of his and others' equations from his popularist books, i believe also he has lost sight of how any ultimate ones must at some level "resonate" with everyone.

However, he deserves a lot of credit for "hanging in there" with Penrose and the others at Cambridge and Oxford... in an era between the truly-great discoveries. (They're, Hawking to a lesser extent, still seeking the combined Quantum-Relativity theory, of which part neither "fathered". Roger Penrose - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia )

Originally Posted by MrPink

I'm sure Stephen would get a kick if he got wind of the fact that his witty remark was overturned by some chap (as the Brits would say) on a baccarat forum.

The "chaps" here would be delighted at also his presence... perhaps we could "go to work on" some of that theoretical stuff as well?

Originally Posted by MrPink

I'm not Sonny and I never had a BJ board. But I do have a board on my site CARDSHARK Online and you are welcome to join. There is a small membership fee but if you shoot me am email I will waive that.

Thank you, i anticipate doing that soon.



P.S. Very-nice to hear from you.