I can't disagree that gambling is about opportunities. However, since we do seem to have different beliefs I would dare say that we may not have the same definition what "opportunity" means in the world of gambling.
Do I understand correctly that one should not worry about the casino edge? A mathematical advantage will not go away just because we ignore it, i.e. not worry about it. It's there whether we worry about it or not.
Also, you say that the only math to worry about is own bankroll. I will argue that the math that has to do with the player's bankroll is precisely the math of the casino edge, once any part of the bankroll is committed to a wager against that casino. Wouldn't you say so?
OK, so how would Kelly work in baccarat? Correct me if I'm wrong, but if a gambler wanted to follow Kelly the gambler would have to make a bet that (for example) Player will not win. That's not the same as placing a bet that Banker will win, right? And on a baccarat layout there is no place to put down a wager that player will not win.
I really think the national debt issue, and how it affects the economy, is a totally different animal.
I think you are saying that the casino edge should be regarded as a small tax on the winnings. I can only say that that's a total misinterpretation of how the casino edge works.
A tax on net profit is a fixed percentage once the profit has been realized (usually through some kind of productive service or production, which is not the same as gambling, which is a monetary transaction without product or service).
The casino edge works on a totally different principle. If a casino were to offer a coin toss they would take your dollar every time you lose and they would pay you .95c on your dollar every time you win. If you had a $100 bankroll you would lose that money in 2,000 winning coin tosses. Now, one would argue that if you won 2,000 times you'd have won 2,000 x .95c, which amounts to $1,900. So, who cares about losing that 100 bucks, right? Wrong! Because to win 2,000 times, on a 50/50 game of chance you don't just make 2,000 winning bets and walk away. To simplify things (and disregard standard deviation) you could say that you'd have to make 4,000 bets, of which you lose 2,000 of them (50%) and win the other 2,000 (the other 50% of bets). Well, in those 4,000 bets you have negative $2,000 and positive $1,900. There goes 100% of your $100 bankroll in 2,000 "wins."
The principle described here, which is the principle of the casino edge, is not the same principle as the principle of the IRS collecting a fixed tax percentage on net earnings. But most gamblers have no idea how the casino edge works, or chose to "ignore" it. But as I've stated above, Ignoring it doesn't make it go away.
With all due respect to King... First let me say that I wish him all well and that I'm happy for his $30K. But here's the thing...
He says he's betting $100 units. That means that he had to have won 300 times to end up with $30k to his name. I am assuming that he didn't just play 300 winning wagers, so he also lost some. And then he had to have won some more to compensate for his lost bets, and end up $30k on top.
King doesn't say how many rounds of baccarat he played. As I've explained in my
BJ post...
...so, I would guess (based on the fact that he is up $30k) that King has not yet played a sufficient number of wagers to make the math kick in. The thing is, he thinks that he has an edge over the casino, but I say that the casino still has an edge over him. So, the day he loses all the money he's ever won at baccarat, plus some more, will be the day the math did its thing.
One thing that definitely time proven is the fact that the hose always wins. That's something you can take to the bank. Any casino will break the players if the players give the casino enough action. All the players need to do to lose it all is to keep playing. It doesn't matter what "mathematical principles" they try to implement or what bets they play or what money management they adhere to. The players will always lose... eventually. And those that have won (without influencing the outcome) are just short term lucky winners. Casinos need those guys because those "winners" maintain the illusion that it is possible to win. Without them people would soon wise up and stay away from casinos.
There are ways to win at gambling, even against the casinos. But those ways involve principles that I haven't seen discussed here as of yet.
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