Thread: What Doesn't Work: Progressions

In my never ending and often frustrating quest to develop a workable winning strategy I am always trying to find what works. I was thinking that it might be useful to start by listing what doesnt work. There are many seasoned players here and it might be good to know what they have tried that doesnt work. The goal being to eliminate certain ideas and to at least be heading in the right direction. Ok-- Ill start. The Martingale progression is a disaster waiting to happen. For those not familiar with a Martingale it is typically a negative progression where you double your bet after each loss. 1-2-4-8-16-32 etc etc. Although you will likely have a higher percentage of winning shoes, when you lose you lose big. The risk-reward for this progression is not good. Maybe I will break this down into several posts. For example--what doesnt work--progressions. We can discuss the pros and cons of various progressions. What doesnt work--bet selection--pros and cons of various bet selections etc etc.

i feel the ladder one does not work too. In the end it will just end up like the Martingale.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

In my never ending and often frustrating quest to develop a workable winning strategy I am always trying to find what works. I was thinking that it might be useful to start by listing what doesnt work. There are many seasoned players here and it might be good to know what they have tried that doesnt work. The goal being to eliminate certain ideas and to at least be heading in the right direction. Ok-- Ill start. The Martingale progression is a disaster waiting to happen. For those not familiar with a Martingale it is typically a negative progression where you double your bet after each loss. 1-2-4-8-16-32 etc etc. Although you will likely have a higher percentage of winning shoes, when you lose you lose big. The risk-reward for this progression is not good. Maybe I will break this down into several posts. For example--what doesnt work--progressions. We can discuss the pros and cons of various progressions. What doesnt work--bet selection--pros and cons of various bet selections etc etc.

yup, agreed its not for me.

tried as newbie in my country's newly built casino using martingale w 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 & final 128 (which's the limit for rapid baccarat @ min $20 per hand). won consecutive 7 visits w min 25 units profits on each occassion...really thought m on my way to forbes' list when the no. 8th visit awakened me rudely - lost all that i'd previously won plus the original capital!

chancing upon & readin this forum for past few days enlightened me tremendously...really made me looks dumb thinkin martingale's the Holy Grail, & one can overcome table limit with accurate calculation & just NOT be that 5% unlucky to hv streak of 7 against me! i got mine with 8 TWICE killing me once & for all!

wat poor ignorance! haha...

I agree. The only progression I use is a small one, a 1-2-3- and lately a simple 1-2 progression. Thats it. I too have tried to use a martingale and have left talking to myself more than once.....

Originally Posted by daytrader

I agree. The only progression I use is a small one, a 1-2-3- and lately a simple 1-2 progression. Thats it. I too have tried to use a martingale and have left talking to myself more than once.....

guess its jus an experience or rather an awakening to tell its Never easy to make it without sacarifices & hardwork! now i play differently (aft that bad encounter)...going for pure flat-betting, little by little, bit by bit...m seeing first thing first how much i can 'marathon-run' without getting my account busted during my casino stay. think it'll build up my discipline & tame my impulsiveness...quite crucial for me!

great luck to all!

OK--the early voting is in and the Martingale isnt faring so well. Joshky--can you give a brief definition of the Ladder system so we all know we are on the same page? Also--shorter progressions and flat betting are gaining early support. I think I will have to join the short progression/flat-betting crowd.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

OK--the early voting is in and the Martingale isnt faring so well. Joshky--can you give a brief definition of the Ladder system so we all know we are on the same page? Also--shorter progressions and flat betting are gaining early support. I think I will have to join the short progression/flat-betting crowd.

With flat-betting, you never have to worry about a total wipe-out of your bankroll.

Plus, you're able to use a larger unit size since no longer are you required to chase losses and bet incredibly high amounts.

Losses are relatively easy to recover from and wins of several units per shoe are the norm.

I'd much rather make a couple of units per session flat-betting $100 a hand than use a 7-step Martingale with a $15 base unit. Good for longevity, great for comps, win rate is about the same with zero risk of ruin.

from my experience these things are asking for disaster.

following patterns/trends

any kind of progression

betting every single, almost every hand

playing against your own instincts

treat every shoe the same- you have to treat every shoe idividually

however, what doesnt work for me might work for some, and vice versa, you just got to know your style.

I do agree not a system in this world is 100% in baccarat but you may keep the losses to the very min. rate so it is very easy to recover the losses you made from the shoe and wait for a new shoe to come.But know when to stop and get ahead plays very important part cause you don't know what the shoe is going to change it's pattern.I still go for flat bet cause it easy or way more easy to recover from losses.If your system can provide 50% of this game you are able of course to flat bet it not using other progression cause may kill bankroll in long term who knows when you going to hit great losses when the shoe you are playing doesn't turns out what you expect.

John--I agree whole heartedly with your observations. Flat betting, in my opinion, is not a good option. I did some testing on a trigger I had been working on. I matched different progressions to the same trigger over 55 live play shoes. Flat betting was ahead by only a few units. A 1-2 progression was plus 31 units with a -4 stop loss and an exit of +4. The ladder system(Dalembert) was +39 with a -10 stop loss and an exit of +10. The dalmbert has much more exposure to loss with little extra reward. The Martingale has even greater exposure. I think some type of progression is needed. Or maybe even a regression/progression combo. An example would of the latter would be a first bet of 2. If you win, regress to 1 on your next bet. If you lost the 2 bet, negatively progress to 3. Return to 2 after each two-bet sequence. Also--I think I'm going to work on a bet selection method which will compliment a 1 1 1 2 2 3 positive progression with no progression on losses.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

John--I agree whole heartedly with your observations. Flat betting, in my opinion, is not a good option. I did some testing on a trigger I had been working on. I matched different progressions to the same trigger over 55 live play shoes. Flat betting was ahead by only a few units. A 1-2 progression was plus 31 units with a -4 stop loss and an exit of +4. The ladder system(Dalembert) was +39 with a -10 stop loss and an exit of +10. The dalmbert has much more exposure to loss with little extra reward. The Martingale has even greater exposure. I think some type of progression is needed. Or maybe even a regression/progression combo. An example would of the latter would be a first bet of 2. If you win, regress to 1 on your next bet. If you lost the 2 bet, negatively progress to 3. Return to 2 after each two-bet sequence. Also--I think I'm going to work on a bet selection method which will compliment a 1 1 1 2 2 3 positive progression with no progression on losses.

I think it depends how you play the system if the system you are playing have a 50% chance of hit rate then progression is not needed in the first place cause the higher the progression goes the harder it will lower down cause if the win rate is bad you keep it going up and up.So becareful with progression way sometimes it really hurts the player.

So thats what the LADDER is..Fooled me..I thought it was ol school STAR..Dang it..Sounds like it wont help me overcome my fears after 4 straight losses..They got a new name for parlay too?.. Good ideal u post there about MM manipulations Johno.

Last nite was my first return to the table after a 2 week vacation..Felt very rusty..Started late and estimated i could only last for one shoe.just wanted to luck out with flat bets and get some drinks down.Came in on this table after the 5th hand. I would just stick with flat bets and some chump change on dragon bets.
P
B
PPP
B
P
B
P
B
PPP
B
P
B
PPP
B
P
B
P
BB
P
B
P
B
PP
BBBB
P
B
P
BB
PPP
B
PPP
BT
P
BBTT
PP
B
PPP
B
P
BBBB
P
BBBBB
PPP
The greater than first half was choppy and caused a immediate 3 loss...
afterwards it was win/lose with a few 3 to 1 dragons hits but I did not put down enough to regain any footing.All in all i lost 7 units.Could have bailed early with a -2... but my dream shoe did not materialize..

Originally Posted by pitty1

Last nite was my first return to the table after a 2 week vacation.

What casino, please.

AD

plus 7 two capping

Hi AD..The same place MinnesotaJoe plays at...if ur not familiar with him...read the thread on GG...Some online asshole tried to get him in trouble where he played at..A matter i take to heart...lesson learned..Dosen't matter where u play at.. Foxwoods,Argosy,Harrahs,Ameristar,MGM,Luxor and even BP...Bac results are universal...win some lose some...Hell u get same results between 6 or 8 deck shoes...streaks and chops..Nothing personal unless u want me to ask sensitive questions...lol

Originally Posted by pitty1

Hi AD..The same place MinnesotaJoe plays at...if ur not familiar with him...read the thread on GG

Thanks for the casino info. It's not that I'm all that particular about which casino, it's just on my play sheets, I mark down WHERE the shoe came from. In this case it was one of yours from here, but the CASINO name also gets marked in.

Once again, thanks for posting up a shoe. I wish more people would as we could get an excellent cross section of tables to work with.

AD

Hi johno, Thats why i choose not to reveal the casinos i play at because i know they are virgins of these so called manipulating machines.So diabolical to use technology to stuff a bunch of 6's here and 3's there in a shuffle to throw off the most competent players money can offer...lol..I guess my confidence of fair play comes from watching a table get opened up... with rules and regulations governed by the gaming commish swarming around the fresh table.Just look at the heavy fines and threats of pulling license for the slightest infractions such as catching a under age player. The gaming Comms are not on casino payroll.As always there may be a few crooks but its to big for all of em to pad the pockets..Why chance losing an entire casino operation over the way a shuffle adds extra advantage and done in a deceptive and illegal manner? All that slot money really worth it?
Comparing 6 to 8 deck shoes..I only test with 6 decks online or shoes posted as 6 decks.An 8 deck should give a slight advantage only due to more hands played,but overall everything remains the same..It would be a nice friendly challenge and fresh knowledge if to say someone here can run a small simulation between 6&8 decks... to verify if a 6 or 8 deck shoe pars better regarding longer streaks.If i lose...i will forever ban myself..I will open a congressional hearing(CASINOGATE)... and start selling systems.

+/-/flat bet??