My first nominee is Thegoal
My first nominee is Thegoal
Great idea for this list ... Yeah, people really need to expose these scammers, because otherwise they'll just keep profiting from the unsuspecting public.
Most scammers know they are scammers. They don't even try to delude themselves.
Others are merely too incompetent to realize their systems don't work, such as some of the Martingale guys and some of the Fibonacci guys. But most of those guys are scammers.
The problem is that the Martingale systems win a lot of shoes. They have a very high win % - some as high as 90%. But your eventual loss usually wipes out all your wins. By that time, the scammer is long gone.
I put all the BJ card counting guys in those two categories as well as the Bac Martingale and Fibonacci guys.
I think the one true test is: Will they let you watch them play in a casino. That rules out almost everyone for both Bac and BJ. A legitimate teacher plays right along with his students. Why wouldn't he???
Yeah, they have all kinds of excuses. The question is: Just how naive are you?
Think about it. The card counting scammers say that casino exhibitions are meaningless. Think of how well that serves the scammer. He never has to demonstrate his wares.
They say "it doesn't matter whether you win or lose as long as you make the correct play". Think of how well THAT serves the scammer.
Let me ask you just one question: "Do YOU care whether you win or lose?"
In Baccarat, anyone who says their system is purely mechanical is either a scammer or incompetent. Why? Because purely mechanical winning Baccarat systems are a mathematical impossibility. They do not exist.
In BJ I think anyone who says "it doesn't matter whether you win or lose" is a pure scammer.
In both games, I think anyone who won't let you watch them play is a scammer.
I think that criteria rules out almost everyone.
Of course, now I'll have even more enemies. So be it. I stand by my remarks.
Last edited by Ellis; 06-05-2010 at 10:18 AM.
Thanks, Ellis - for the insightful guidelines.
Well, it sounds like what you're suggesting is that no one out there can present any consistent way to beat the house.
I'd rather know sooner rather than later that baccarat is not winnable in the long run and should not become the basis to make a living, and that the only way to profit from it is to sell the pipe-dream to others.
Last edited by davel; 06-05-2010 at 10:24 AM.
Well, I wouldn't go that far but close to it. My site, beatthecasino.com is, I think right along with many others, the best by far to learn how to beat Baccarat. I get no complaints from the members. But don't expect some easy 5 minute system. By comparison its pretty hard work. Some learn in a few weeks, some a few months but it is the only site that is producing winning Bac players. And everyone helps everyone else.
System 40, which I posted on this forum, is about the easiest system we teach but ALL are learnable.
There are certain winning principles you need to digest like:
How do you identify table and shoe biases?
What is the difference?
How do you know what system to play?
How to you know when to net bet vs when to Single Side bet?
What is good cash mgt? What is Bad cash mgt?
How do you keep your bets low and still win?
How do you conduct a table search?
What can you learn from tote boards?
When should you play?
How do you know which tables to avoid?
What are good betting systems?
What are bad betting systems?
What about ties?
When should you EXPLOIT, and how?
And the list goes on.
Some of my players have been with me over 20 years because they've never found anything better. Not that they haven't tried.
Oh and BTW, we adopted one of the ideas a member on this forum came up with. As you may know, our tuition is either $50 a month or $500 lifetime. His idea was to give lifetime membership to monthly members after one year. Both Keith and I liked that idea!
Last edited by Ellis; 06-05-2010 at 11:41 AM.
Good.
And my first nominee is steve6969.
Why?
I have just as much proof that you are a scammer, as you have that I am a scammer.
So, while I wait for you to post proof that I "scammed" some one and profited in that "scam", I will look for my "proof" of your "scam".
Game?![]()
Problem is though ellis, as you, I, and any professional baccarat player knows, some martingale and fibonacci system guys aren't intentionally scamming. Based on the house and the "bullet dodging" progression systems give you, they might not even be aware their system doesn't work yet simply because they haven't busted out yet. So, they could be toting something thay are FULLY convinced works. Only to have one of their "clients" finally bust out and they are then called "scammers". Which is actually very ignorant and unfair to the system creator, who was unaware it was going to happen. Problem with these system creators though, is that they tote them saying typical sales lies like "System has been tested for 2-3 years"...etc. THAT is what gets them in trouble. If they would just be honest up front and say "This is a new system, that has been working very well so far"....then PERHAPS, they wouldn't get in so much trouble when it DOES eventually bust out. Even then, most system buyers and gamblers are immature, ignorant, loser degeneratres (no offense). That doesn't mean their aren't seasoned gambling educated veterans out there, but, for the most part, it's the later unfortunately. So, they are a very negative crowd and have been burned by endless useless systems, and are VERY quick to call a someone who isn't really a scammer, a scammer.
This is part of my dilemma, too ... whenever I talk to someone trying to sell me his method, part of his sales-pitch is that everyone else out there has got it wrong, and that if I use the other guy's approach, I'll lose the shirt on my back, but if I stick with him, he'll make me wealthy beyond my dreams.
Ultimately, it's one person's word against another, with no possible way of objectively verifying the claims unless I buy the method from the seller to test it myself.
There doesn't seem to be a way of objectively verifying all of these claims without taking the financial risk ... and in some cases, they cost several thousand dollars, so it's not trivial.
(The other pitch I love: "You get what you pay for ... so, can't you tell by the fact that I'm charging $2500, while that other guy is charging $150, which one is the real deal?")
Right Goal. There are guys who think their Martingales and Fibs work on purely mechanical systems. Those are the guys I'm calling incompetent. They haven't done their homework and aren't qualified to sell anything.
Last edited by Ellis; 06-05-2010 at 05:13 PM.
... so ... what would be really helpful is if we could compile a list of these guys ... their names, emails, system names, sites' names, etc. ... because these guys selling their flawed systems don't tell us what their methods involve until after they receive payment.
This way, we can help the community avoid making them richer.
This is the real purpose of this thread.
Ok - at another forum, I found a post warning about this guy who sells a Martingale system:
Don Tigert, The Seminar Method
Baccarat Personal Training Seminar
1809 W. Loop 281, Suite 100-133
Longview, TX 75604
(817) 437-9488
dontigert@aol.com
(Cost: $2500)
So: Avoid Tigert, because he relies on Martingale.
Last edited by davel; 06-05-2010 at 06:08 PM.
One other way to expose a scammer is to ask for a list of players playing his system. A scammer will not let you talk to his clients. He can't, can he.
Well, I'd feel more comfortable had you said he relies on a Martingale in a purely mechanical system. I don't know that Tigert's is purely mechanical. Regardless, no competent teacher would recommend a martingale and no good system needs one.
Look at it this way. Suppose you unwittingly bought such a system and learned it thoroughly and sat down to a $100 table to play.
Your prog would be 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 100. Recognize that your 8th bet would be over the limit at any casino in the land. Even if you win your eight bet, you lose 11 units. But I don't care how good your system is, its just a question of time before you lose your 8th bet in a row. A purely mechanical system will do this once every 8 shoes. You will lose 7 in a row once every 4 shoes. At 8, you just lost 211 units or $21,100 trying to win one unit. No competent instructor would ever put you in that position. Hell, you could lose twice in the same shoe. How much money did you bring???
You'll need to win 90% of your shoes just to break even after commission. Just how good is this system?
But I guarantee you this: You'll get great comps! And for good reason. The casino will love you.
Last edited by Ellis; 06-05-2010 at 07:51 PM.
justtryingtomakeit is another scammer he posts all over craigs list promising a life time bank roll he puts together ellis seystems with little mods
justtryingtomakeit was never interested in any of my systems. He was selling his Martingale system on my public forum. I couldn't allow that as it associates a Martingale with me. So I had to remove him. I don't think he was trying to scam anyone. I think he seriously thought his system worked. Just wasn't experienced enough. We actually tested his system. It did have about a 90% win rate. But in the end it was about as I describe above with a few delaying tactics built in. Just a question of time as I'm sure he has figured out by now. But, unlike real scammers he played his system in actual casinos and was willing to show you.
If he has since gone to systems more like mine, all the more power to him. But he didn't learn them from me. All I can say is beware because he had no grasp of good risk to reward ratio.
But speaking of Martingales, I've learned some surprising facts.
First, Martingales don't make as much as you think. Remember each progression only makes 1 unit so you end up with a score that is the same as the number of progressions you could fit in a shoe provided you don't have any 8 losses. You have to quit early to avoid getting caught in a prog at the end of the shoe. So if your avg. prog was 2.5 plays long you only make about 25 units a shoe after commission. Recognize your commission is very high - about 3 units a shoe.
The surprise is that you can average that and more playing U1D1 M3 basing at 2. That is, starting at 2 bet up 1 when you lose and down 1 when you win and always bet 3 after 2 win or lose the 2. Don't go below 2. That averages close to 30 units a shoe with FAR less risk and far less commission. Your eighth bet is 9 units instead of 128. Which would you rather do, bet 128 units to avg +25 or bet 9 units to make +30???
Based on that, I don't know why anyone in their right mind would ever play a Martingale or even recommend one. It is that kind of experience that justtryingtomakeit is lacking. But I think he means well. But I'm not the least bit worried about a would be competitor who flies off the handle at the drop of a hat. I suspect he could count his sales on his fingers. You can't sell if you blow up at every question and call your potential buyers names.
But speaking of selling systems, I quit doing that in 96. The problem is that there simply is no all encompassing system that covers the whole water front. I'm in the business of teaching the concepts behind the systems. You can't do that with manuals. It is an ongoing education both for the student as well as the teacher. I doubt if I have two students who play every shoe exactly the same way. But that is OK as long as both win. That is my concern.
Last edited by Ellis; 06-06-2010 at 05:38 AM.
Just a thought how about a list of honest system sellers I am shure it be a very short list Keep'er Lit .Colin
I think it would be short of the minimum characters for a post.
I found an ad on CL and a lot of other free-classifieds sites, where the author's stated location is in every major city of the U.S.
According to Steve, the person behind these ads is justtryingtomakeit.
.^^^^^^^MAKE A SMALL FORTUNE PLAYING BACCARAT!^^^^^^^
Hello Reader,
First, I would like to say that I am in no way, a scam or a fraud, nor have I ever been accused of being one! And the strategy that I teach is 100% profitable and accuarate. I give full support to all of my clients and I offer a 100% money back guarantee as well. Now, what I teach is a Baccarat strategy that is guaranteed to win every single day that you play it. There's only one catch, it's a flat betting method, so the unit wins, per session, aren't going to be astronomical. Notice that there is a catch with everything and I just told you want the catch was (if you want to call it that), so please do not email me, asking me "Well, what's the catch?" because I didn't hide it from you.
Anyway, my strategy requires only a 5 unit buy-in and a 30 unit lifetime bankroll. Therefore, it is a very low stress method of play. You are guaranteed to win at least 5-10 units every 5 shoes, which is considered to be one session. I have tested and played my strategy through over 2000 live shoes and I have never finished a five shoe session with a loss. PLEASE, DO NOT LOOK AT THIS AS JUST ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT DOESN'T WORK, BECAUSE NOT ONLY DOES MY METHOD WORK, BUT IT WINS WITHOUT THE USE OF ANY PROGRESSIONS AT ALL. My strategy takes a completely different approach towards the game of Baccarat. As some of you experienced players may know, most systems for Baccarat have at least one nemesis that will destroy the entire system. Whether it's a 1221, 3113, terrible two's streak, chop streak, sporatic ones, 2121, etc. With all progressive systems, one of the previously mentioned combinations, seems to always be the spike in the road that will either slow your successful run down (bleed your bankroll), or bring your system to a complete halt (bust your bankroll). This is not and will never be the case with my strategy. Pattern recognition has absolutely nothing to do with the way the game is played. Now I know that I have your complete, undivided attention with my last statement. You are not going to look for any runs or streaks of any kind, because they simply do not have any effect on your bet selection. Also, you will play by strict money management rules that will protect your bankroll, and ensure that you will either hit your profit goal after 5 shoes or that you are boardering your profit goal after 5 shoes.
To put things in a better perspective, one only needs a $300 dollar lifetime bankroll for $10 dollar units ($50 dollar buy-in) or a $3000 dollar lifetime bankroll for $100 dollar units ($500 dollar buy-in). As I have said before, I stand by my strategy 100% and I offer a money back guarantee to solidify the integrity of my strategy. You have absolutely nothing to lose by trying it out. Contact me at takingthebank@gmail.com for any further questions that you may have in mind.
So, caveat emptor!
.
Last edited by davel; 06-06-2010 at 07:23 AM.
It seems he went from one extreme to the other. All of a sudden he's a flat bet expert? This guy will never take the time to pay his dues. I still say buyer beware.
gran, i dont know why your jumping all over me i never defended ellis or anybody that profits of people looking for the holy grial , that siad i did join btc for a while it did improve my game but that was due to other members and the way we shared ideas and all the seystems he has is up to the player how he plays it was alot better then whats available out there as for justtryingtomakeit he scammed me twice and cost me alot of money he wont even answer his phone so who is defending a scammer, and i guess what daytrader went through was pleasent so please dont accuse me iwould help anyone for free the other day i sat down for two hours at the casino helping another player becuase he liked the way i play
It's confirmed ... that guy is indeed justtryingtomakeit (takingthebank@gmail.com), because Steve and I have independently contacted him & cross-checked his PayPal email address (melarvae@yahoo.com) . He wants $1,000 for his method, which according to Steve is just modifications of methods that can be found on Ellis' forum.
This guy really is a clever con ... he assured me that he's the only one who's able to give his students a new lease on life, and that every other person selling a baccarat method is a fraud. He even claimed that he had challenged anyone who's selling a baccarat method to a tournament to demonstrate that his method is the best, but that no one dared to take him on at his challenge, and thus, he has "proof" that no one else's method is legit.
He also claims to offer a rock solid 100% money-back guarantee, and was even complaining how some of his students had taken advantage of him after learning his system, making $50K using it, and then still demanding their money back (which he claimed he gave back to them, because he's just that kind of guy). But according to Steve, he doesn't reply to calls or emails after awhile and just ignores you after a point.
Gee - these scammers are truly psychopathic and should really be locked up!
Last edited by davel; 06-06-2010 at 04:11 PM.
dave i just dont want you to make mistake i did save your money you will figure out how you want to play the game and just read and practice,today i played two shoes using adot 46 units
Just my thoughts.
Why there are scammers? Simply because there are people who believe in it. If you don't believe, then they can't do anything to you.
And just to tell you what I think about these system sellers. If they are so good, they should be making very very good money playing in the casino, easily 1 million a year. They don't need to spend the time talking, listening to you and trying to convince and teach you how to play and win baccarat.
And those who play successful, they will not teach or reveal their methods or strategy to you. Maybe except me, and I too closed up the door as not everyone here respect you and honour their words.
I never know Ellis and I always try my best not to interfere or talk down any other system. Personally, I do think certain things he said (such as occurance of 1s 2s, etc) did made some senses.
But, to have a dozen systems (sorry, I don't know how many, but, Ellis did say they have many systems) for your members to learn and chose to play, that is really something new to me. I means, people pay you $50 a month, you throw them 8 or 9 systems, then, they are suppose to see the shoe and decide what system to play? Is that the right logic or something that I misinterpret wrongly?
John1234 have only 1 system. Whether it is working or not is another issue, but, people pay for that and play that system. They just need to understand 1 system and play. Now, BTC have so many, so, which to play when I sit at the table?
And just a sidenote, not to say BTC is bad or anything (seriously, I don't know), I just want to throw something out there for people to read.
I got requests for my trigger list from many BTC members (I know who they are from reading this forum), now the question. If it is that good and people are winning money happily, then, why is there a need to explore more winning options? Isn't playing that particular system will be okay?
(Don't give me the craps that different shoes required different system. I have only 1 system and that system have me winning for 18 years. 3 years playing part time and 15 years playing full time).
well said bryan
Excellent points, Bryan ...
Well, the old saying is, "Those who can't, teach."
Of course, those who can, also teach, but as a student, it's so difficult to discern who is the real deal when there is no objective means of doing so.
I think the reason why people seek out those who claim they can teach or sell them a profitable system is because it is ingrained in our human nature to want to learn from those more experienced than ourselves. This natural desire to learn gives our race an evolutionary advantage, since it helps us avoid mistakes which others before us have made, and it helps us achieve faster what others before us have accomplished.
Of course, in the case of scammers, their greedy and deceptive natures take advantage of this natural desire to want to learn, and the ultimate result is that it harms our society as a whole. Indeed, if there were only honest and genuine teachers, the world would be a much nicer place by now, and we would all be spending our time and energies on more important matters than figuring out how to put food on our tables every day.
What always humors me is the answers the supposedly genuine teachers offer when asked why they are selling their systems at any price, why they aren't using it to make all the money they could ever need or want, assuming they really had something as great as they were pedaling.
Here's a list of the answers I've heard:
- Gratification: "I love to teach. I love to help people. I love when I can help someone avoid making the same mistakes I did, so they can achieve what I have faster."
- Prosperity-mindset: "Those who hoard their secrets are operating out of a poverty-mindset, as if there's not enough to go around. But I'm operating out of a prosperity-mindset, as I believe there's plenty to go around."
- Immunity: "I used to be worried about what would happen if this holy grail were known, but I'm not afraid anymore, because most people are too set in their own ways to realize the true potential of my method. Only those ready to learn will benefit, and they are so few in number that I have really nothing to fear."
- Selflessness: "It's not about the money. I've already made my millions. Now I want to turn around and help others do the same. Especially in this terrible economy we're in!"
- Retirement: "I'm tired of the daily grind of going to the casinos. It's actually a tough job going to casinos hours a day. Sure, the winnings are great, but after years/decades of doing it, it does take its toll. I still go to the casinos, but I can do just as well teaching others what I know."
- Christ-complex: "There's so many cons and frauds out there scamming people, and I'm the only one who has the real thing. It must be fate that you found me, because I can save you a heck of a lot of frustration and failure if you learn from me. I'm the only one who can offer you a new lease on life."
- Value: "Of course I charge so much more than those other frauds. You get what you pay for. No one appreciates how difficult it is to develop a truly winning system, and you're fortunate I'm offering to teach it to you at any price. If I gave it away for free, no one would appreciate its true worth."
So, the scammers are masters of taking advantage of our natural human instincts to learn, since every point they make has an element of truth in it. Indeed, every point might just be what a genuine teacher could rightfully say, too, which makes us wonder ... is he the real deal? We are particularly vulnerable when we've come to a point in our lives when we desperately seek help - at any cost.
The scammers prey upon our own greed and desperation.
That's why I feel it is important for the community to expose the scammers. At the very least, the information will come up in a search engine, and hopefully save someone the money and frustration from being scammed. Then they will be a step closer to finding the truth.
Last edited by davel; 06-07-2010 at 06:24 AM.
Hi Bryan! Absolutely no offense taken. Yes, we have your trigger list and thanks. We examine everything available on the internet and anywhere else. You never know where a good idea might come from. No one on my forum has ever spoken ill of your triggers and some have spoken highly of it.
I have not had a chance to study your trigger list personally but from what I can gather from all you have said is that it does have some follow the shoe characteristics. We may well end up incorporating some of your logic into our own approaches.
I think we both know that purely mechanical systems that have no follow the shoe characteristics mathematically can't work long run. Yet that is all that is available on the internet at any price.
I distinguish between systems and approaches. While a single mechanical system can't work, two such systems ideally paired together to form an approach CAN work.
That is the way most of my players play. Take a simple chop system and a simple streak system, pair them together, develop logical triggers that put you on the right system at the right time and all of a sudden you outperform what either system could do by itself. Couple that with a good but conservative betting strategy, apply good cash mgt rules and after some painstaking messaging you eventually have an approach that works better than 50/50.
Now take three systems, trigger them with an SAP chart and you have something that averages even better with near perfect triggers and requires no table selection.
We have even experimented with playing 5 systems together.
What my players do is settle in to the multi system approach that works best for them where they play and learn to play it smoothly without error at casino speed. All the sudden they become consistent winning players.
Does it work every time? No, but that is what good cash management is for. The idea is to win more when you win than you lose when you lose.
All in all, we are at an 83% win rate. But, everyone started at a 50% win rate.
These posts you see where my players have won 60, 70 shoes in a row - well now you know how they did that. They don't suddenly become liars when they join my forum as the jealous Garnabby would have you believe.
To me Baccarat is about knowing and applying solid proven principles. This requires classroom type education and it takes time to learn. It also requires abandoning old wives tales and superstition. Ha, this can be particularly enlightening for Chinese players but none give me any argument.
Of course we occasionally get the fly by nights who were expecting some simple magic bullet and run as soon as they see that there is work and study involved. They probably were school drop outs too. I can't be bothered by them. I freely admit, its hard work and easier for some than others.
I find nothing wrong with your trigger list but frankly such play is not allowed where most of my players play. You simply don't bet often enough to satisfy most pit bosses. Obviously you don't have that problem where you play but I must contend with it here in a practical sense.
We have no-bets in our approaches too, but not enough to draw attention.
But these internet guys who are in search of some simple holy grail will be on that search forever. It doesn't exist. I think we both know that. There are a lot more ways to lose than ways to win.
Last edited by Ellis; 06-07-2010 at 07:06 AM.
Well, the problem is that these internet guys are trying to sell simple holy grails. These are the scammers, and the theme of this thread.
Honestly, I never knew there was even a game called "baccarat" until I came across an ad hawking a way to make consistent money from the casinos by a guy named Tony Lango. My ensuing research into his claims led me to this forum. I'm not someone searching for holy grails or any such thing. Just trying to objectively access whether the claim that someone can make a good living consistently from the tables holds any merit.
So far, I haven't found any concrete evidence to support the notion, just a lot of anecdotal stories and unsubstantiated claims. Whether it's $50 or $5000 that someone is asking for, they all want my money for the privilege of learning from them. Some may call that a scam; others, just good marketing.
Last edited by davel; 06-07-2010 at 07:25 AM.
Bookmarks