Flat-Betting Banker

[joshky]

[joshky]

1

[sevenshooter]

Virtually breaking even over one million shoes is very good news to me.

As players, we have the power to decide when to quit and when to continue. If we consistently ended our sessions on up-swings each time, say, somewhere in the neighborhood between +4 to +6 units, the game is beaten.

[grassshopper]

7,

is this the system that you are planning to play on your 10 day marathon? or are you still testing the different options?

in any case, the best of luck to you...

[sevenshooter]

7,

is this the system that you are planning to play on your 10 day marathon? or are you still testing the different options?

in any case, the best of luck to you...

No, actually the system I was planning on testing was the original one that won me +90 units over fifty shoes. Betting against the appearance of a rare, specific pattern.

I've won with both flat-betting systems but I'm particularly interested in the Banker bet system since it seems so reliable and quite profitable.

I'd like to see how others have fared with it.

[grassshopper]

in my not so expert opinion, I think that the key to this way of playing that Seven is sharing is :the stop loss at -6,

by keeping the stop loss at -6 the chances of coming ahead on every shoe increase very much, at least, that is my perception, am I wrong?

[steve6969]

seven, do you have to start from the beggining of the shoe or anywhere

[sevenshooter]

seven, do you have to start from the beggining of the shoe or anywhere

I've always started from the beginning of each shoe, though I don't think it really would make a difference.

One thing I've noticed that I should mention is that if losses plummet to -6 units early in the shoe, this is usually an indication that losses will continue to drop throughout the remainder of the shoe. Not a rule, just an observation.

Most of the shoes I played and recorded that hit -6 early ended up well below -12 and -15 by the last decision.

[Profbac]

Lyle Stuart wrote about this in the 1980's. He called it the three and over method. He personally saved all his player cards, the counted up a sample of 25,000 hands. Conclusion, big waste of time. Hey, he had fun.

I also looked at a variety of bank only systems. Found nothing useful.

[steve6969]

i wonder if stuart had a stop loss of -6

[ADulay]

No, actually the system I was planning on testing was the original one that won me +90 units over fifty shoes. Betting against the appearance of a rare, specific pattern.

sevenshooter,

Well, that makes it around +2 per shoe which is acceptable (although butt numbing if running this all day) but the question that begs to be asked is: "How much does the rare, specific pattern cost when it shows up?"

Hopefully it's not something like P BB PPP BBBB PPPPP or something similar that showed up two days ago on Bet Phoenix again.

AD

[Profbac]

i wonder if stuart had a stop loss of -6

No he did not.
Maybe that will make the difference!

[COLINY]

Hello Sevenshooter and every1 else could the BANKER System be played live at an online casino as where i live we do not have bricks and mortar casinos if any 1 thinks it can would thet care 2 say which casino might be best .Thanks for looking and Keep'er Lit .Colin

[sevenshooter]

Hello Sevenshooter and every1 else could the BANKER System be played live at an online casino as where i live we do not have bricks and mortar casinos if any 1 thinks it can would thet care 2 say which casino might be best .Thanks for looking and Keep'er Lit .Colin

In my spare time when I'm online, I sometimes fool around with Bodog's free Baccarat game. Nine out of ten times, I come out ahead.

Personally, though, I'd never bet real money online. But that's just me.

[scot]

In my spare time when I'm online, I sometimes fool around with Bodog's free Baccarat game. Nine out of ten times, I come out ahead.

Personally, though, I'd never bet real money online. But that's just me.

That's how they are designed. It's only pseudo-random and has tendencies to let you win only entice you to play the with real money. When you start winning in the thousands (playing craps), then the RNG rigging begins. Online casino's software are the biggest sham on the web and I suggest EVERYONE avoid it.

[ADulay]

Hello Sevenshooter and every1 else could the BANKER System be played live at an online casino as where i live we do not have bricks and mortar casinos if any 1 thinks it can would thet care 2 say which casino might be best .Thanks for looking and Keep'er Lit .Colin

Hmm, you live in Ireland?

Try the live tables from DublinBet. Not the RNG stuff, just the live dealt games.

AD

[Bryan]

There are many ways to win at baccarat. Whether this strategy could win or not is depending on individual. I have played this way before and there is risk involved.

Talk is cheap, let me give you an real example. I pulled out my Jan 2010 scorecard, about 130 of them, playing live in Genting Highlands.

Shoe 1: -6
Shoe 2: -6
Shoe 3: +1
Shoe 4: -6
Shoe 5: -4
Shoe 6: -6
Shoe 7: -6
Shoe 8: -6
Shoe 9: -6
Shoe 10: -5

Not only the first 10 shoes, in fact, playing this way, out of the first 20 shoes, only 3 shoes win +1, + 5, +3. And when I completes all 130 shoes, it is slightly break even, taking into consideration the banker's commission.


Let assume you are playing in casino and playing 5 shoes a day and encounter the same first 20 shoes as my Jan scorecards. Now, in the first 4 days, you are looking at a staggering 102 units (6 x 17 shoes) lost and 9 units win. Do you think you are able to take that?

This strategy depends heavily on banker hands winning more than player hands. If almost even or bankers win by merely 1 or 2 hands, you will still lost on commission.

Earlier, John mention about someone lost playing this way and that cannot be dismissed. Even a stop loss of -6 won't put you ahead if most shoes encountered is neutral, not to say player dominated.

And to win through this method, I would assume that you need to win banker bet about 40 times and that set you back by 2 units commission. In long run, it could prove costly.

But, don't get me wrong. This could be a good way to win as well, it depends on individual to know when to stop and get out when ahead.

[sevenshooter]

There are many ways to win at baccarat. Whether this strategy could win or not is depending on individual. I have played this way before and there is risk involved.

Talk is cheap, let me give you an real example. I pulled out my Jan 2010 scorecard, about 130 of them, playing live in Genting Highlands.

Shoe 1: -6
Shoe 2: -6
Shoe 3: +1
Shoe 4: -6
Shoe 5: -4
Shoe 6: -6
Shoe 7: -6
Shoe 8: -6
Shoe 9: -6
Shoe 10: -5

Not only the first 10 shoes, in fact, playing this way, out of the first 20 shoes, only 3 shoes win +1, + 5, +3. And when I completes all 130 shoes, it is slightly break even, taking into consideration the banker's commission.

What you're implying is that 9 out of 10 shoes begin with PPPBPPPBP.
Or of course, something like, PPBPPBPPBPPBPP.

I've never come across anything like this in my casino, though anything's possible.

You've said over 130 shoes playing this way more or less breaks even in the end.

I say that's a good thing for two reasons:

1) As long as we pull out of each shoe while up units, a profit can safely be made;
2) with a zero percent risk of ruin

Anyway, each time I play this way at my local casino, I walk away a winner.

[sevenshooter]

i still play with this strategy up to now.
table / shoe selection plays an important role here.

for example:
1. B streaks > 2
2. occurence of Single P's
3. 212's = BBPBB

and also, when starting from the very first hand, wait for the first B, before starting your flat bet.

this will save you 3 bet loss, if the shoe started with P streak, that is if you are stopping after the appearance of PPP.

you can also start anywhere within the shoe, if the shoe proved to be B dominant.

i leave the shoe when im up 1 to 2 units, because im betting large units.

1 unit win you have about 91% success
2 unit win you have about 82% success

stop loss = -10

EXIT THE SHOE WHEN YOUR AHEAD.

I like what you're suggesting about starting the shoe after a B to avoid losing to a PPP right away. Plus if the shoe turns out to be Banker-dominant you have a chance of riding the first good B pattern or B streak.

Don't you think your stop-loss could be reduced some? You are flat-betting, after all.

By your own calculations, you're winning two units 80% of the time and losing -10 units 20% of the time. Over 100 shoes, that's +160 and -200 = Total: -40 units

[Bryan]

What you're implying is that 9 out of 10 shoes begin with PPPBPPPBP.
Or of course, something like, PPBPPBPPBPPBPP.

I've never come across anything like this in my casino, though anything's possible.

Not necessary from start of shoe.

Loss stop: -6
Win Stop: 10

10 sample shoes.

1. PBBPPPPPBBPPPPPBPBBPPP
2. BBPBBPPBPBPPBBPPBBPPPPPBPBBBPBBBPPBBPBPPPPPBBBBPBB PBPPBPBBBPPPPBBBBPBP
3. PBPPPBPPBBPPP
4. PBBBPPBBPBPPBPBBPPPPPPPBPBPPPBPP
5. PPPBBBPBBPBPBBPPPBPBBBPPBPPPBPP
6. PPPBPPP
7. PBPPPBPBBBPPBPPPBP
8. BBBBPBPBBBPBPPPBBBBPPBBBBPPBPPBPPPBPBBBPBBPPBPPBPP PPPBPPBBBPPBBBPBBBBPBP
9. BPPPPPBPPPPPPBBBPBPPBBPPBPBPBBBPPBPPP
10. BPBBBPPPPBBBBPBBPPBBPPPBBPPBBBBBBPPPPPBBBBBBPPPBPP PPPPPBBBPPBBBPP


As I say, if individual know when to get out, it could still win. Also, you might not have take into consideration banker commission.

1 shoe with 40 bankers will take 2 units away (40 * 0.95), 100 shoe will becomes 200 units, so, in reality, you might not be winning that many units.

[sevenshooter]

Not necessary from start of shoe.

Loss stop: -6
Win Stop: 10

10 sample shoes.

1. PBBPPPPPBBPPPPPBPBBPPP
2. BBPBBPPBPBPPBBPPBBPPPPPBPBBBPBBBPPBBPBPPPPPBBBBPBB PBPPBPBBBPPPPBBBBPBP
3. PBPPPBPPBBPPP
4. PBBBPPBBPBPPBPBBPPPPPPPBPBPPPBPP
5. PPPBBBPBBPBPBBPPPBPBBBPPBPPPBPP
6. PPPBPPP
7. PBPPPBPBBBPPBPPPBP
8. BBBBPBPBBBPBPPPBBBBPPBBBBPPBPPBPPPBPBBBPBBPPBPPBPP PPPBPPBBBPPBBBPBBBBPBP
9. BPPPPPBPPPPPPBBBPBPPBBPPBPBPBBBPPBPPP
10. BPBBBPPPPBBBBPBBPPBBPPPBBPPBBBBBBPPPPPBBBBBBPPPBPP PPPPPBBBPPBBBPP


As I say, if individual know when to get out, it could still win. Also, you might not have take into consideration banker commission.

1 shoe with 40 bankers will take 2 units away (40 * 0.95), 100 shoe will becomes 200 units, so, in reality, you might not be winning that many units.

That's a very good point you make.

I've been doing most of my playing on EZ Bac tables with zero Banker commission. A three-card total of 7 on a Banker win results in a push in that case....

[sevenshooter]

as bryan mentioned, this strategy depends on B wining more than P...

somewhere in the forum, a member observe that if a side (B or P) reached 6 winning hands first, counting from the very first hand, the shoe will be dominant on that side. i think he said 66% of the time from his test results.

i also observed this, i think my results were about 60%.

Intuitively, I feel you may be correct on this.

[COLINY]

Thanks every1 for looking and answering . Colin

[Ellis]

as bryan mentioned, this strategy depends on B wining more than P...

somewhere in the forum, a member observe that if a side (B or P) reached 6 winning hands first, counting from the very first hand, the shoe will be dominant on that side. i think he said 66% of the time from his test results.

i also observed this, i think my results were about 60%.

Try as I may, I have not been able to come up with a mathematical explanation for this. But more often than not the strong side stays the strong side throughout the shoe. This has been demonstrated time after time by systems that bet the weak side will catch up. Such systems fail spectacularly over the long run. Too spectacularly!

While it goes against the grain of math heads like me, sometimes we simply have to respect what IS W/O worrying about why.

[Profbac]

Other than FULKG, no one here is talking about a sufficient sample size to draw a good conclusion.

Bryan assumes 5 shoes per day. At large bac, or Macau style tables,
that is a full days play.
Given these stop levels, how many hands are you actually playing?
How many days and months do you need to play before you get a valid
sample.

I have seen many shoes using trend following from begining to end that would go between plus 10 to minus 10 units. Playing any bank only system with a simple (mechanical) stop loss is fine for a days, recreational play. It will not give you a long term advantage.

[sevenshooter]

Other than FULKG, no one here is talking about a sufficient sample size to draw a good conclusion.

Bryan assumes 5 shoes per day. At large bac, or Macau style tables,
that is a full days play.
Given these stop levels, how many hands are you actually playing?
How many days and months do you need to play before you get a valid
sample.

I have seen many shoes using trend following from begining to end that would go between plus 10 to minus 10 units. Playing any bank only system with a simple (mechanical) stop loss is fine for a days, recreational play. It will not give you a long term advantage.

While there's little debate over the accuracy of your comment above regarding the long-term advantage, allow me to suggest an alternative way of generating wins per session:

Hypothetically speaking, you're playing a 50/50 game using a system under which you know at some point during the session:

a) you will be up +10 units;
b) you will be down -10 units;
c) you will be hovering around even

Wouldn't it be logical to wait until you're in the positives to withdraw from each session in the black?

An analogy (and not necessarily a good one) could be a barrel with a slight leak in the bottom. Looking in the barrel, you see that it is dry -- completely empty. Yet you know from experience that each time it rains, it will be filled with fresh water for a short period of time. Over the long run, it is usually empty, and even after it fills, it will empty again. There's no changing that fact. The understanding that in the long term everything bottoms out to zero would not prevent a thirsty person from using that fixed and finite amount of time when conditons are good to transfer potable water out of that barrel and into his canteen.

[Profbac]

By stopping after plus 10 or minus 10, you are just postponing the inevitable.

Day one plus 10 units stop, go home , I have the Holy Grail.
Come back day 2, lose 10 units stop, go home, I am a disciplined player.

If you kept playing on day 1, you would be in the same place.
If you are not overcoming the house advantage, then you have a good recreational system.

If I am playing craps for fun, which I sometimes do, and I am a random shooter, I follow a stop loss or win approach.

For bacarrat, where I believe that I have a positive expectation,
my stop points are based on expected draw downs over a specific
number of shoes and a range of profit points for the trip, month etc.
But these stop points are not related to my bet selection.

[sevenshooter]

By stopping after plus 10 or minus 10, you are just postponing the inevitable.

Day one plus 10 units stop, go home , I have the Holy Grail.
Come back day 2, lose 10 units stop, go home, I am a disciplined player.

If you kept playing on day 1, you would be in the same place.
If you are not overcoming the house advantage, then you have a good recreational system.

If I am playing craps for fun, which I sometimes do, and I am a random shooter, I follow a stop loss or win approach.

For bacarrat, where I believe that I have a positive expectation,
my stop points are based on expected draw downs over a specific
number of shoes and a range of profit points for the trip, month etc.
But these stop points are not related to my bet selection.

On day 2, if I were -10 units into my session, I would continue to play until I was +1 or +2 units, then end the session.

[scot]

I think, ultimately, this is a break even method and only using MM can maybe give steady profits. Staying rigid playing one way and ignoring all trends throughout shoe/table, it only seems logical that everything averages out and breaks even.

Get Ayuinca to do a test and let's see if it is in the positive once and for all. But I would think Ellis would have some input on this by now.

[Ellis]

I think, ultimately, this is a break even method and only using MM can maybe give steady profits. Staying rigid playing one way and ignoring all trends throughout shoe/table, it only seems logical that everything averages out and breaks even.

Get Ayuinca to do a test and let's see if it is in the positive once and for all. But I would think Ellis would have some input on this by now.

I already said my piece back a few posts.

Math experts will tell you that MM alone cannot beat shoes long term.

I think you guys will have an up hill grind making this work out ahead. Hey, but nothing ventured..... At the worst, if it doesn't work out, you'll know one more way NOT to play. On the other hand hey, I don't know everything.