Thread: New strategy with promising results

I've been working on a specific trigger and have had very promising results in testing. I have tested against one hundred plus live casino shoes from the Beau Rivage,the Grand Biloxi, and the IP in Biloxi, MS as well as another unnamed Mississippi casino. I have tested against live on-line shoes at the Black Orchid as well as kitchen table tests and have not had a losing shoe yet. I almost want the trigger to fail so I can put it to rest. I believe there are some advantages to this trigger that make it unique, but I would like to see more shoes. If anyone would like to post any results I would like to see them. They must include ties as well as B and P results to be useful to my testing.

I dont think this particular idea is new by any stretch of the imagination. I believe John has proposed similar ideas in some of his posts and I believe this idea is related to some of those ideas. I dont want to reveal the specific trigger until I have some shoes posted for testing because I dont want bogus shoes posted that would defeat the trigger. Another thing--Im not looking for a lot of units per shoe--right now Im looking at two units. I want to match a conservative, moderate, and aggressive money management strategy to the trigger so that risk can be evaluated.

After some more testing I would like to submit the trigger to one of the programmers that frequent this board so they can run it through a simulation.

i have many shoes for you to test. hope we can discuss it a bit.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

If anyone would like to post any results I would like to see them. They must include ties as well as B and P results to be useful to my testing.

GH,

I'd love to give you all of my scorecards for testing but none of them show the ties. Sorry, I don't track them.

However, I do have an Excel spreadsheet with 40,000 live hands on it from the live tables at Venezia and you are more than welcome to use that.

It does show the outcome for Player and Banker, plus the total hand score and does show the ties and what the tie actually was!

If you think that will help, you're more than welcome to have a copy of it.

ADulay

Thanks AD and Weddings for your offers. On second thought I think I will begin a discussion at this point in my testing. People can run it through their results if they have any and test the triggers validity.

Before I get into the actual trigger I'm going to briefly point out some of the things I like about it. Firstly, It(and most triggers) limit the number of hands you play. One problem I find with playing too many hands in a shoe is that you sometimes miss the forest for the trees. You are betting in rapid fire mode and if things start going badly I think you may have more of a tendancy to "tilt". It is a way of forcing yourself to slow down, breath, and asess the situation.

Secondly, with a trigger you can select your nemesis. This line of thought can be attributed to John. Although the trigger is not a directly related to him, his postings were more of an afterthought when I was trying to figure out why it was working. Anyway, if you must have a specific set of events to happen before it fails, it reduces the chances of failure and the failure conditions are highly recognizable.

Thirdly, this trigger is highly recognizable--as a matter of fact, it is a different color on the tote board. It is the tie.

I do not advocate betting the tie and this is not a tie system. It is a simple trigger which will have you betting a limited number of hands per shoe which I believe has a benificial effect. You will bet fewer times with bigger units and thereby limit your exposure. I think I will leave it at this right now mainly because I am tired of typing. If anyone is interested in discussing it further I will.

I am interested in what. I agree with you 100% on selective betting, it is so easy to get carried away and lose site of your goals and system rules.

Is this the trigger that you were telling me about through PM?

Thanks John 1234,

Yes--it is related to that PM. The trigger or triggers are as follows: There are two bets to be made. First bet-- bet tie to jump. For example-- If the tie was proceeded by a player, bet banker. If banker wins--this is your 1 unit win.If player wins-- double up on player. Same applies for tie proceeded by banker. If tie is proceeded by banker bet it to jump to player. If it stays on banker, double up on banker the next shoe. I have'nt made less than 2 units per shoe in the hundred plus shoes tested with a 1248 progression. It performs well on a flat bet or a 1-2 progression.

The nemesis is BTBP and PTPB. I do not bet if BTBT or PTPT appear. This system limits your exposure because of the limited number of ties in a shoe etc.

thanks for sharing. I looked into something like this ages ago. I forget what I was doing but it has positive results, not as good as yours though. when I get some time I will do some testing

anyone trying this or is it in the toilet?

Hi,

Ive been testing with good results. Seems to work well with a 1-2-3 progression with larger units. Of course nothing works all the time. I like to have a recovery mode for any bad string. For example, If my starting unit was 20-40-60 and I lost those three bets I would run a string of bets starting at 30. Bet 30 until recovery or a string of 30-60-120 etc, etc.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

Thanks John 1234,

Yes--it is related to that PM. The trigger or triggers are as follows: There are two bets to be made. First bet-- bet tie to jump. For example-- If the tie was proceeded by a player, bet banker. If banker wins--this is your 1 unit win.If player wins-- double up on player. Same applies for tie proceeded by banker. If tie is proceeded by banker bet it to jump to player. If it stays on banker, double up on banker the next shoe. I have'nt made less than 2 units per shoe in the hundred plus shoes tested with a 1248 progression. It performs well on a flat bet or a 1-2 progression.

The nemesis is BTBP and PTPB. I do not bet if BTBT or PTPT appear. This system limits your exposure because of the limited number of ties in a shoe etc.

My flat-betting Banker only system works because:

1) Banker normally outperforms Player;
2) Played on EZ Bac, there's no Banker commission;
3) After PPP halt play until Banker reappears (avoiding long P-streaks);
4) -6 unit stop-loss prevents heavy losses in P-dominated shoes;
4) No negative progression used and therefore recovery made easy

Please tell us why your system works.

I tested a couple of shoes and made 5 in some of my shoes. I got confused on what to do when I had a situation such as

P
T
B
T

Next bet would be P

Can you clarify this for me.....

You say you would bet 20-40-60 or 30-60-120, in a string of 3...

I thought there is only a max of 2 bets per tie?

Lets say P,T,P,B came in, you would have lost 3 units using a 1-2 progression. Do you keep going on? If so, when do you stop and what do you play next?

If you stop and wait until the next tie, lets say....B,T,B,B, would your fist bet have been 3 units? Then the 4th bet 4 units?

Please clarify this!

GH, I'm wondering if the tie really makes any difference??? I'm wondering if you would get equal results if you simply triggered off every tenth play, tie or not. After all, what difference does a tie make in the overall scheme of things? What do you think?

Ellis--the tie is mainly used as a visual aid indicating it is time to wager. The purpose is to limit the number of hands you are betting in a shoe. You could trigger off every tenth hand--but then again that would be a different method. Also--with no proof, I offer that the tie is an agent of change. Do the math on it if you like-- Im playing like it is.

Daytrader-- A little confusing for sure. look at it--test it--and if you decide to play it match a progression with it that is to your liking. You can flat bet, run a 1-2 progression, run a 1-2-3 continuing your progression from one event to another. You can run a 1-2-3 with a recovery mode etc etc.

Sevenshooter--First of all, take a look at the name of the post--new strategy with promising results. I looked at this as the result of conversations with a few experienced players and decided to check out a few hundred shoes. I did so and found the results promising. I decided to post my findings on this forum so that anyone with interest could investigate further. You kinda put me in the position of having to defend something that I really dont feel I have to defend. If you want--test it out. If you dont like it--the trash it. I really could care less.

Yep, I get it GH.

Just joined forum. Hello everyone.

Ro

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

Ellis--the tie is mainly used as a visual aid indicating it is time to wager. The purpose is to limit the number of hands you are betting in a shoe. You could trigger off every tenth hand--but then again that would be a different method. Also--with no proof, I offer that the tie is an agent of change. Do the math on it if you like-- Im playing like it is.

Daytrader-- A little confusing for sure. look at it--test it--and if you decide to play it match a progression with it that is to your liking. You can flat bet, run a 1-2 progression, run a 1-2-3 continuing your progression from one event to another. You can run a 1-2-3 with a recovery mode etc etc.

Sevenshooter--First of all, take a look at the name of the post--new strategy with promising results. I looked at this as the result of conversations with a few experienced players and decided to check out a few hundred shoes. I did so and found the results promising. I decided to post my findings on this forum so that anyone with interest could investigate further. You kinda put me in the position of having to defend something that I really dont feel I have to defend. If you want--test it out. If you dont like it--the trash it. I really could care less.

If there's no theory to support your system other than hearsay I'd say it's not worth betting on. Don't be so touchy -- be reasonable.

Like I said--nothing to be touchy about bro. By the way, what is the theory behind your system ?

Also--lets get a couple of things straight. There is no holy grail which means all triggers, systems, methods have their flaws. Ellis would agree to that I believe. Bryans highly sought trigger list has its flaws Im sure. Ellis' systems are not 100 percent and neither is your bet Banker everytime and stop betting when you see three players. Im not knocking it mind you--if you are able to manipulate a profit then that is great. It is good to see many ideas. Keep what works for you.Toss what dont. Hakuna Matata

Yes I agree with GH. Mind you he's just posting an idea that shows initial promise.

I think the very best systems judging from all perspectives are our own SAP and NuSap at BTC. But even those don't always win. There is always the shoe from hell. This game is not about always. It's about usually.

To judge a system logically you need to look at several factors: Sure there is win rate but by itself win rate means little if your losing shoes lose 200 units while your winning shoes win 25.

Look at:
Win rate
Buy in reqd.
Avg. bet size
Highest bet
Avg losing shoe vs avg winning shoe
Risk to reward ratio.
Player advantage
High bet to score ratio
Ease of play
Player comfort level

In other words, judge from all aspects.

I think the list posted by Ellis should be a checklist of all would be system designers. I know it will be the criteria I use to judge system ideas in the future. Good stuff Ellis.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

Hi,

Ive been testing with good results. Seems to work well with a 1-2-3 progression with larger units. Of course nothing works all the time. I like to have a recovery mode for any bad string. For example, If my starting unit was 20-40-60 and I lost those three bets I would run a string of bets starting at 30. Bet 30 until recovery or a string of 30-60-120 etc, etc.

How many bets are you most likely to make per shoe with this approach?

Depends on the number of ties. Each tie is an event, either one or two bets per tie.

GH,

I will start to make a notation of the ties during future play and will try to keep an eye on how this runs out. Probably not during actual play, but when reviewing the shoe.

I'll let you know if anything starts to show itself.

AD

Thanks AD-- you BTC guys are starting to suck less

Thanks John

My testing has gone well. I'm hitting 23.2% turnover to winnings averaging a little better than 5 units per shoe with a high bet of eight units. Im using a Star progression with rider option. I carry the progression from shoe to shoe. In other words, I dont worry about individual shoe results--Im looking at session results. My session goal is my daily winning goal and is taking a little less than four shoes to reach 20 units. My progression has a two round recovery mode. Also--Im only betting the switch after the tie.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

Thanks John

My testing has gone well. I'm hitting 23.2% turnover to winnings averaging a little better than 5 units per shoe with a high bet of eight units. Im using a Star progression with rider option. I carry the progression from shoe to shoe. In other words, I dont worry about individual shoe results--Im looking at session results. My session goal is my daily winning goal and is taking a little less than four shoes to reach 20 units. My progression has a two round recovery mode. Also--Im only betting the switch after the tie.

What is the star progression? I have read about it in various posts but I have never seen what it actually is.

Its basically a short Fibanacci, 1-2-3-5-8, With a rider option(2 hi-- you know --let your 1 unit win ride at your option. And a two set recovery mode which is a 2-4-6-10-16 set and a 3-6-9-15-24 set. I havent hit recovery mode yet. Im starting live testing at dublinet. my goal is totriple my bankroll three times. from 1k to 2k--2k to 4 and 4 to 8k. If it passes that i will consider it ready for casino play.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

Thanks John

My testing has gone well. I'm hitting 23.2% turnover to winnings averaging a little better than 5 units per shoe with a high bet of eight units. Im using a Star progression with rider option. I carry the progression from shoe to shoe. In other words, I dont worry about individual shoe results--Im looking at session results. My session goal is my daily winning goal and is taking a little less than four shoes to reach 20 units. My progression has a two round recovery mode. Also--Im only betting the switch after the tie.

Sounds really good. I don't have any T's on shoes otherwise i would have put this test to pen and paper.