System 40: Ellis Clifton Davis

[nt1]

Thanks I am understanding these terminologies better now yay

When Ellis says 3s are the culprit does he mean that 3 will turn to 4 very soon because it has not turned to 4 in a long time and many 3's are showing. So bet real high on the culprit?

And to determine the culprit is it the number that shows up the most? So when it shows again it has to streak sometime so bet high?

He also mentioned 2 3 4 being culprits but when can we determine a 1 being a culprit?

I am known to be a unit player and would like to bet high on certain triggers. This culprit idea sound unique but need more understanding.

[davel]

Thanks I am understanding these terminologies better now yay

When Ellis says 3s are the culprit does he mean that 3 will turn to 4 very soon because it has not turned to 4 in a long time and many 3's are showing. So bet real high on the culprit?

And to determine the culprit is it the number that shows up the most? So when it shows again it has to streak sometime so bet high?

He also mentioned 2 3 4 being culprits but when can we determine a 1 being a culprit?

3s are the culprit means that after a 3, start betting repeat instead of opposite. That is, you're betting that the 3 will become a 4 (at least).

Make the culprit whichever is lowest of 2, 3, or 4+. The reason is because Ellis' philosophy is that the relative frequency between the 2, 3, or 4+ usually remains the same throughout the shoe. For example, if a shoe is especially low in 3s, then Ellis predicts that when you see a 3, it will most likely become a 4 or more, so start betting repeat after the 3. Of course, it is just an educated guess, but at least it is better than a blind guess.

If you make 1s the culprit, you're essentially always betting repeat, since whenever you see the winner switch sides (a potential 1), you start to bet on that side immediately (a repeat). You'll get killed, though, if it starts to zig-zag (111 ... ), so you typically bet repeat only when you have a hunch that the shoe tends to the streaky side. Otherwise, use TBL to cover the zig-zags and the streaks.

[Egalite]

Otherwise, use TBL to cover the zig-zags and the streaks.

Bad advice.

[davel]

Bad advice.

Egalite,

You're more than welcome to offer your own advice.

We all know that each hand in this game is 50/50 at best, and the best we can do is make an educated guess for the next hand. We accept the illusion that our educated guesses are better than blind guesses, but we all know they are all just guesses. There is no system better or worse than another - it's just a matter of personal preference, what best fits a particular player's style, philosophy, and expectations. If anything, the betting progression can make all the difference.

If there is any skill in baccarat, it is simply this: pocket your chips when you're ahead, and cut your losses short.

Good advice for anything in life.

[kadiddle]

That's sound advice Davel

Egalite,

You're more than welcome to offer your own advice.

We all know that each hand in this game is 50/50 at best, and the best we can do is make an educated guess for the next hand. We accept the illusion that our educated guesses are better than blind guesses, but we all know they are all just guesses. There is no system better or worse than another - it's just a matter of personal preference, what best fits a particular player's style, philosophy, and expectations. If anything, the betting progression can make all the difference.

If there is any skill in baccarat, it is simply this: pocket your chips when you're ahead, and cut your losses short.

Good advice for anything in life.

[LuckoftheIrish]

Do you think in a few years Ellis will have System 400, as in the 400th system variation to beat baccarat? He will need his own wiki page just to keep up LOL

[davel]

Do you think in a few years Ellis will have System 400, as in the 400th system variation to beat baccarat? He will need his own wiki page just to keep up LOL

Well, System 40 was so named because he claims to have used it to win 40 straight shoes. He did it with a playing partner - I forget her name, though.

But it is a good point why he stopped at 40. Why not System 400 or System 4000?

By the way, some of the guys at his forum are planning to get together to play with Ellis at a land casino soon using his new meta-system (which includes System 40 for choppy shoes), and Ellis joked that the goal was to make it "System 50," that is, 10 more straight wins.

[MaverickUltimate]

So is this System 40 any good? Someone mentioned it to me, and I'm wanting to learn a good system to try. Thanks.

[garnabby]

So is this System 40 any good? Someone mentioned it to me, and I'm wanting to learn a good system to try. Thanks.

For a guy with one post yesterday, and who doesn't want to come off as just another sillE shill...

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/nbj.htm .

[garnabby]

P.S. Did any of old sillE's imaginary friends show up at his latest "beer fest" (, at the "Gas Station" in PA, no less, lol)? Pretty-expensive round of beers, at something like $395.

[davel]

I can only speak from my own personal experience playing System 40 in practice and live with real money: it definitely works!

The best tip I can offer, though, is to shoot for either +10u or +20u (if +10u came very quickly go for +20u, but protect the +10u carefully afterwards).

I think where most people lose is if they try to play the entire shoe with it. You can do that during practice, for example online. You'll often get great shoes which net +20u to +40u, and you might get used to those great scores. But my advice is don't shoot for so high when you're playing with real money. Just be content with +10u or +20u and call it a day.

So is this System 40 any good? Someone mentioned it to me, and I'm wanting to learn a good system to try. Thanks.

[garnabby]

I can only speak from my own personal experience playing System 40 in practice and live with real money: it definitely works!

That the "1,000th" system worked FOR YOU, and after a very-limited number of games... by no means means it "definitely works", lol.

So misleading!

[MaverickUltimate]

Thanks, davel - I'll try it out.

I can only speak from my own personal experience playing System 40 in practice and live with real money: it definitely works!

The best tip I can offer, though, is to shoot for either +10u or +20u (if +10u came very quickly go for +20u, but protect the +10u carefully afterwards).

I think where most people lose is if they try to play the entire shoe with it. You can do that during practice, for example online. You'll often get great shoes which net +20u to +40u, and you might get used to those great scores. But my advice is don't shoot for so high when you're playing with real money. Just be content with +10u or +20u and call it a day.

[nt1]

Thanks too Davel

Just to add to our last posts regarding the culprit number...

(BTW a chart would be nice to remember with)

a shoe with ***NOT*** alot of...

1s - culprit is 1s meaning when 1s comes up bet repeat to 2
2s - culprit is 2s meaning when 2s comes up bet to repeat to 3
3s - culprit is 3s meaning when 3s comes up bet to repeat to 4

etc ...

Then why was Ellis bringing up the notion that 1 in every 4 plays is a 1 chop and 1 in 8 plays for 2 chops etc...? This means that the shoes will balance itself out. Lets say 2s are all you see then 1s chop and 3s chop will show up eventually so bet high here. I was going with this and was successful but it is not system40 if we just pattern bet..

Side question...

Do we have a database or a computer software program that can run simulation shoes meaning like thousands to skim over trends?

[davel]

Thanks too Davel

Just to add to our last posts regarding the culprit number...

(BTW a chart would be nice to remember with)

a shoe with ***NOT*** alot of...

1s - culprit is 1s meaning when 1s comes up bet repeat to 2
2s - culprit is 2s meaning when 2s comes up bet to repeat to 3
3s - culprit is 3s meaning when 3s comes up bet to repeat to 4

etc ...

Then why was Ellis bringing up the notion that 1 in every 4 plays is a 1 chop and 1 in 8 plays for 2 chops etc...? This means that the shoes will balance itself out. Lets say 2s are all you see then 1s chop and 3s chop will show up eventually so bet high here. I was going with this and was successful but it is not system40 if we just pattern bet..

Side question...

Do we have a database or a computer software program that can run simulation shoes meaning like thousands to skim over trends?

Only in the long run, meaning over many, many shoes, "shoes will balance itself out."

From Ellis' experience, shoe tendencies will persist in any given shoe.

So, he makes the educated guess that whichever event is least frequent will stay least frequent in a shoe. So, make that event the culprit when playing System 40.

[davel]

Thanks. I didn't see that post back in May. Maybe I will post it in a more presentable format when I have time. Keep in mind that ALL of Ellis' methods (20 methods to date?) win - in the right shoes. Run it through 100 shoes - tell us waht you get.
A

Well, I haven't used it in quite 100 shoes, but I have in about a dozen using live money, and a few dozen during practice. So, a little over 50 in all, I suppose. For my progression, I usually use U1D2M2.

I do use a -20u stop-loss and I've never hit it during a single shoe, but I've had shoes which lost. The worst was -14u, but most were less than -10u. Mind you, though, each of the losing shoes were played systematically to the end, and during the play, most of them hit over +10u at some point, so had I just quit at +10u, they would've all been winners so far.

Overall in live play with real money, I've only lost 1 shoe with it (-14u ... this shoe actually reached +19u at one point, and I was shooting for over +20u! Greedy me! Poor MM resulted in that loss, and a big lesson learned). Otherwise, I've always won at least +10u to +20u with it, average about +15u. Practice actually spoils me, because I get so used to shoes netting +30u to +40u that I'm dying to score that well playing live ... but I cannot say that has happened yet. I suppose +10u is a reasonable live goal, maybe +20u if everything is smooth.

The thing about System 40 is that you have to choose your culprit wisely. Depending on what you choose to be the culprit, you can win in principle win every shoe. Ellis uses the 3s as the default culprit. If the shoe is streaky (rich in 3s and 4s), he makes the culprit 2s, and if choppy (rich in 1s and 2s), he makes 4s the culprit. Whichever is lowest in frequency among 2s, 3s, and 4s, he makes the culprit.

Indeed, that shoe I lost (the -14u one where I got greedy) ... I noticed afterward that the statistics were clearly pointing to making the culprits 4s, but during play, I had used 3s as the culprit, and that's THE reason why that shoe lost. Had I used 4s as the culprit during play, I would've killed that shoe with a huge score. Another lesson learned the hard way!

It's scary using 4s as the culprit, though, because you can lose 4-in-a-row, and on that 5th decision, you're really starting to question your sanity, especially if you're using U1D2M2. In practice, it's easy to just blindly follow the rules and possibly be saved in the end, but playing live, it takes a lot of trust and discipline to stick to the rules.

Of course, as we all know, the goal isn't being able to correctly predict the outcome of the next hand - no system can do that. Rather, it's just being able to make the best guess possible given all of your knowledge and experience, and hope that the betting progression stretches the statistical variance of your score high enough to allow you to walk away when you're up.

[davel]

Just for reference, here's a shoe I played with System 40 at Bodog the other day. Final score of +35u. I typically get anywhere between +10u to +40u during practice, so this would be an example of a more friendly System 40 shoe. The bet progression is U1D2M2 throughout, though in hindsight, this would've been a good shoe to press more aggressively on.

After the first quarter when I noticed the shoe was exhibiting high 3s and 4s, I just made the 2s the culprit and it was smooth sailing the rest of the way. Notice I started playing after the first hand, which may be too aggressive. If I had waited out the first 5 to 10, I would've been able to boost my score by at least 10 more units.

Scorecard here.

[Ellis]

I have no idea who Dave is. I'm guessing he is an open minded guy who saw system 40 posted here and tried it. Good job Dave! And good that you are working on your cash mgt.

Of course you can expect a bit of noise here from a couple guys jealous because they haven't a clue how to design a winning system.

One nice thing about 40 is that the more experience you have with it the better you do over all.

It's good to see someone here has the gumption to try it.

The rest can just keep on losing, those that play at all, that is. Who cares? If you can't play, might as well bad mouth those who can. Don't consider learning to win. Bad mouthing is more fun. Yeah, right!

[davel]

Thanks, Ellis -

I have a question about improving my System 40 play ...

Here is a shoe I just completed at Bodog: 8/23/10 System 40 Scorecard

(Bodog is continuous RNG, so I usually play until hand 80, since there's literally no "end" to the shoe.)

Using strict U1D2M2 throughout (no MM), the shoe ended at +12u, which is on the lower end of what I usually get for System 40, so it was a tougher shoe for System 40 in mid-play. I use a stop of -20u, and the worst drawdown was -15u, so I never got stopped out ... but had I gone one more level in the progression, I would have been stopped out.

What drew me down was the pattern -4321- between hands 25-33. I had been using the 3 as the culprit, and from the SAP chart, the 3s and 4s were even, so I just chose 3. Well, had the pattern been -433-, I would've been sunk and stopped out, but the -21- saved me from losing the shoe. (Near loss.)

Is this just inevitable, or would you have any suggestions what to do in a situation like this to help improve performance?

Thanks.

[stntgr52]

Ellis, may i ask you what system40 is in baccarat or how i may obtain it. thanks for your help. richard

[davel]

Ellis, may i ask you what system40 is in baccarat or how i may obtain it. thanks for your help. richard

Richard -

The full System 40 rules are posted in this thread ... just go to the top and start reading every post in the thread.

Ellis gave the rules starting from around the #15 post in this thread.

[Ellis]

Hi Dave. I played your shoe. I was going to PM you but then I see stntgr52 and others would be interested in the reply too so what the hell, I went this far. Why not go a little further. So I'll give you a normal beatthecasino.com reply so folks here can see how that goes.

You did very well in that shoe for what you knew. It was a very tough shoe in that you had to change culprits 3 times. But you played your SAP chart perfectly and managed to do very well.

I did a little better but I played the more sophisticated version of Syst 40 that I teach at BTC.

You ended at +12 with a -15 draw down.

I ended at +25 with no draw downs. I only did two things different.

1. when I win my OTR bet I only stay OTR (on the run for 1 winning bet) I only stay OTR if 2s are culprit. You'll see why after a couple shoes.

2. When I come off a run and lose that first bet I stop betting until the run ends then continue with opposites wherever I left off. This protects you from long runs like your 8 in a row.

That's it. Yes, you did better on the 8 in a row than I did but I did better on everything else. And how many 8 in a rows do you see? Get it?

If you have any questions on this please feel free to PM me or even ask right here.

BTW I don't like the idea of playing random generators. Essentially you are playing biases and RGs should have no biases. On the other hand if you are doing well.....

[Ellis]

Only in the long run, meaning over many, many shoes, "shoes will balance itself out."

From Ellis' experience, shoe tendencies will persist in any given shoe.

So, he makes the educated guess that whichever event is least frequent will stay least frequent in a shoe. So, make that event the culprit when playing System 40.

I just read this other post Dave. All you say is true but I'd like to make an addition to it.

when your LC never changes you ALWAYS win and you win very high.

If it only changes once you still do very well.

But note in your shoe the LC changed 3 times which is very rare and you STILL won far better than the average player at +12.

But here is what I want to add. ONE way to win overall in Baccarat is to avoid the large losses that all other players experience. Think about that. If they could just avoid those occasional large losses.....

Now recognize that the ONLY way to suffer a large loss is to be unlucky enough to be betting against the MC (most common event).

THAT can't happen to you because you are ALWAYS betting against the LC event and NEVER against the MC event. I don't care how many times LC changes, LC can NEVER be MC.

So, by always betting against the LC event (always making LC culprit) you are already a long term winning player. THAT is just simple math.

Now I'm sure that will give Garnabby and Archer and a few others a serious fit but they are mere wannabees. I'm the real deal and they know it. Why didn't THEY think of this if they know so damn much????????????? There's only ONE reason.............

[davel]

Thanks, Ellis.
I understand your points.

If possible, can you post your scorecard?

Regarding Bodog, they use a simulated 6-deck shoe with a reshuffle after each hand. So, it is a continuous reshuffle.

System 40 has been working fabulously there, as well as other approaches I'm practicing.

To give you an idea, here are some of the shoes I've played at Bodog in recent days:

1: P131111141221113244131121412124151151221121
2: P431127212211133215341246212211221121
3: P15332222121112511113313451121111121534
4: P32121251121852514111132312251221321
5: B2212421121411123411111138131111161151113211212
6: B2111412111213124321221811423312211312222

I notice they're fairly neutral overall. Nevertheless, all of the approaches I've been practicing have been netting very healthy scores overall.

Since it's continuous, I play until hand 80, but in shoe #5, I played until hand 88 just to complete a losing run in profit.

[pitty1]

Yeah ellis... Only maverik mark knows ur the real deal huh?

[bulldog]

Ellis
Am I reading this correct that if 2's are culprit you only make 1 bet OTR, if 3's are the culprit you only make 1 bet, and if 4's are the culprit you only make 1 bet.
If this is the way then after you win or lose that bet you go opposite?

[Ellis]

Thanks, Ellis.
I understand your points.

If possible, can you post your scorecard?

Regarding Bodog, they use a simulated 6-deck shoe with a reshuffle after each hand. So, it is a continuous reshuffle.

System 40 has been working fabulously there, as well as other approaches I'm practicing.

To give you an idea, here are some of the shoes I've played at Bodog in recent days:

1: P131111141221113244131121412124151151221121
2: P431127212211133215341246212211221121
3: P15332222121112511113313451121111121534
4: P32121251121852514111132312251221321
5: B2212421121411123411111138131111161151113211212
6: B2111412111213124321221811423312211312222

I notice they're fairly neutral overall. Nevertheless, all of the approaches I've been practicing have been netting very healthy scores overall.

Since it's continuous, I play until hand 80, but in shoe #5, I played until hand 88 just to complete a losing run in profit.

Keep up the good work Dave. Don't forget you can quit a shoe any time.
I'll post the bets from play 2

- p1 p2 b3 b4 b5 p3 b1 b2 p1 p2 b1 p2 p3 b4 p2 - - - - b3 p1 b2 b3 p4 b2 p1 p2 b1 p2 p1 p2 b3 b1 b2 p1 p2 b1 b2 p1 b2 p1 p2 p3 b1 p2 p3 b1 b2 p1

The dashes are no bets (play #1 and the last 3 plays of the 8 plus the next play. I think I played it exactly as you did except for the 2 changes I listed in the other post. Have fun with it.

[Ellis]

Ellis
Am I reading this correct that if 2's are culprit you only make 1 bet OTR, if 3's are the culprit you only make 1 bet, and if 4's are the culprit you only make 1 bet.
If this is the way then after you win or lose that bet you go opposite?

No bulldog! If 2s are culprit stay on the run until you lose as Dave did because 2s culprit is usually a streaky shoe.

If 3s are culprit you can often get away with 2 OTR bets but go to 1 if you are usually losing the second OTR bet.

If 4s are culprit just make ONE OTR bet and win or lose go back to opposites but if you lose that first oppo bet wait for the run to end.

Those are your base rules BUT if you are seeing long runs you can always opt to stay on them until you lose OR make every other bet OTR until the run ends. In other words let the shoe tell you what to do.

[Ellis]

Dave, bulldog, stntgr52: As if I haven't given you enough to think about already, that on off on off the run is neat because half the time you not only win the last bet of the run but also the following opposite bet.

Since Dave said he was getting very agreeable shoes, let me show you one more great trick you can deploy when ever you are winning close to half of your initial prog 1 bets. Dave actually lost 3 more first bets than he won yet this trick worked extremely well in his shoe anyway.

When you are doing OK on your 1 bets change your basic prog from 12345 to 23456, Mandatory 3. We call that U1D2 M3 B2 (Base 2). Now you would think you are increasing your risk but you aren't. You actually decrease your risk because you have decreased the SLOPE of your progression. Slope = risk.

See, in a 12345 your 5th bet is 5 times your base bet BUT:
In a 23456, your 5th bet is only 3 times your base bet. = less slope = less risk.

OK, I played Dave's shoe over again with those two changes: on and off the run and with the 23456 prog U1D2M3 B2.

Yep, my score went from + 25 to +41 even though I lost 3 more base bets than I won. Math is funny that way!

And one more point. Yes, System 40 does well in Neutral shoes like this.
The final OR count was -2 but 40 killed this tough shoe anyway. Here is my point. Our OTB4L system does even better in Neutral shoes. So does Net betting System 40!

But look guys, I teach all this stuff in great detail every day on my own forum where I am highly respected. I don't have the time to keep coming over here to teach you Baccarat basics. Plus, I don't appreciate the comments and name calling of the few jealous idiot wannabees you have on this forum. You are all welcome on my forum anytime. Yeah, yeah, it costs a little bit. But you'll make that up ten fold every time you play! My guys do, so can you!

Now have at me Archer and Garnabby. All you are proving is you have no idea of Baccarat basics or system design. Go ahead, prove me right again.

[Ellis]

BTW even with the increased ABS (avg bet size) I still had no draw downs!

The reason I brought up the OR count is because even though 40 is basically a chop system (it primarily bets opposites) (except when 2s are culprit) it beat this unfavorable shoe quite substantially. The -2 OR count means the shoe had 2 more Repeats than opposites but we won in spite of that and in spite of the 8 in a row which actually helped the way Dave played it and also the way I just played it. But it was also tough because the SAP chart stayed relatively even all the way through. We do much better when our SAP chart gives us a clear and lasting indication. This one kept changing but we won very well anyway. Any questions?