System 40: Ellis Clifton Davis

[thegeorgiahurricane]

Had to work for 1 unit with a high 5 unit bet. Lot of threes early so I tweaked it two make fours the enemy. That turned out to be a good descision. Got in the hole a tad so I modified my unit size from 10 to 15 which helped in recovery mode. Got up to plus six units before hitting a four run. Ended up about break even. Not dissapointed though. Wouldnt want to play strictly mechanical. You need some skill in this game to know when to shift gears.

[Ellis]

That's right John. You chose the culprit. Whichever is running the lowest vs normal among 2s,3s, and 4s. Try reading the rules again. I mentioned this several times. In other words, its not purely mechanical. There are no casino rules against using the brains God gave you at a table. Although you would think there are such rules if you spend much time around card counters.

Don't make up your own rules and then complain about them. You can tell which is running lowest vs normal between 2s, 3s, and 4s. Can you not? THAT is how we won 40 shoes in a row played at 5 different casinos. Before you complain, read.

Its easy to lose if you try hard enough. And its easy to win if you try hard enough.

To make the culprit 3s, you bet 1 and 2 on opposites and 3 on repeats.
To make the culprit 4s you bet 1,2 and 3s on opposites and 4s on repeats.
To make the culprit 2s, you bet 1 on opposites and 2 on repeats.

I was hoping you could figure that out by yourself.

I gave you the norms for 2s, 3s and 4s. What more could you possibly need?

John, you do what the shoe tells you to do. You therefore follow the shoe at hand. Eventually you'll find that is the only way to beat Baccarat. I'm just trying to save you about 30 years.

Every pattern the same length eventually occurs at the same frequency. That mathematical frequency of occurrence is just enough to break any progression even no matter what that prog is. In other words, the way you are telling people to play,W/O regard for the shoe at hand, makes it mathematically impossible to win long term. There is no way around that fact. The ONLY way to get an advantage is to do what the shoe at hand is telling you to do. The sooner you grasp that fact the better off you'll be and so will everyone else.

[sevenshooter]

That's right John. You chose the culprit. Whichever is running the lowest vs normal among 2s,3s, and 4s. Try reading the rules again. I mentioned this several times. In other words, its not purely mechanical. There are no casino rules against using the brains God gave you in a casino. Although you would think there are such rules if you spend much time around card counters.

Don't make up your own rules and then complain about them. You can tell which is running lowest vs normal between 2s, 3s, and 4s. Can you not? THAT is how we won 40 shoes in a row played at 5 different casinos. Before you complain, read.

Its easy to lose if you try hard enough. And its easy to win if you try hard enough.

To make the culprit 3s, you bet 1 and 2 on opposites and 3 on repeats.
To make the culprit 4s you bet 1,2 and 3s on opposites and 4s on repeats.
To make the culprit 2s, you bet 1 on opposites and 2 on repeats.

I was hoping you could figure that out by yourself.

I gave you the norms for 2s, 3s and 4s. What more could you possibly need?

John, you do what the shoe tells you to do. You therefore follow the shoe at hand. Eventually you'll find that is the only way to beat Baccarat. I'm just trying to save you about 30 years.

Every pattern the same length eventually occurs at the same frequency. That mathematical frequency of occurrence is just enough to break any progression even no matter what that prog is. In other words, the way you are telling people to play,W/O regard for the shoe at hand, makes it mathematically impossible to win long term. There is no way around that fact. The ONLY way to get an advantage is to do what the shoe at hand is telling you to do. The sooner you grasp that fact the better off you'll be and so will everyone else.

Hi Ellis,

I enjoyed reading your posts about this method.

I've tried playing it against a number of recorded live shoes and I'm getting an awful lot of -15 unit stop-losses...

Any tips?

[Ellis]

Had to work for 1 unit with a high 5 unit bet. Lot of threes early so I tweaked it two make fours the enemy. That turned out to be a good descision. Got in the hole a tad so I modified my unit size from 10 to 15 which helped in recovery mode. Got up to plus six units before hitting a four run. Ended up about break even. Not dissapointed though. Wouldnt want to play strictly mechanical. You need some skill in this game to know when to shift gears.

Well done again GH and well said. Strictly mechanical loses. Here is another point your first shoe demonstrates:

You scored high against a very choppy shoe.
I scored high against a very streaky shoe.

System 40 handily beats both shoe types. It likes the extremes of the spectrum best - Very choppy or very streaky.

That's pretty neat because THOSE are the tables easiest to find.

But, what if all you see is neutral shoes that favor neither streak nor chop?

Great, you can EXPLOIT that situation by net betting opposites vs repeats. Maybe this helps you to understand why it is good to have more than one system in your quiver. For EVERY shoe type there is a system that beats it best. It pays to know those systems and when to use them.

I admire my students who win by focusing on a single system. They win in spite of their short comings. But the players who REALLY deserve admiration are those who can glance at a tote board and automatically know exactly what system to play and how to play it. THOSE are the REAL players. Those are the guys you see winning 60 and 70 shoes in a row.

Sure, winning 40 in a row is neat but that ain't nothing no more. But at 70, you ain't a student no more. You're a PLAYER!

But at least now we have one good system posted on this forum. NO, it doesn't automatically win but like you said, you can MAKE it win by also using your head. Anyone can do this with enough practice. It's a START. From there, PLAYERS are born.

[Ellis]

Hi Ellis,

I enjoyed reading your posts about this method.

I've tried playing it against a number of recorded live shoes and I'm getting an awful lot of -15 unit stop-losses...

Any tips?

Sure sevenshooter.

First, if you could email me some of your played shoes at Ellis@beatthecasino.com I would be happy to go over them to see what you are doing wrong, if anything. That MIGHT be part of the problem.

But I strongly suspect most of the problem is that you are playing a pile of shoes out of context of the casino. You are playing under a huge handicap as I have mentioned before.

There are several options in system 40 you need to be deciding BEFORE the fact rather than after the fact as you are doing.

For instance, when we won the 40 shoes in a row it was at 5 different casinos. We didn't play the 5 different casinos the same way. We didn't even start the same way. What we did first upon arriving at the casino is we found the streakiest or the choppiest table we could find. Next we decided all our options from the tote board. THEN we sat down to play. I can't swear to this but I don't remember changing any options once we started play. If we did, it was very seldom.

As I have said before, playing a pile of shoes at home is almost a complete waste of time except from a practice standpoint. You've taken casino biases, table biases and card prep biases completely out of the picture. In other words, you have circumvented nearly all of you sources of achieving advantage. Watching what a shoe does after it starts is the least of your advantage source. Knowing what the table is doing BEFORE you start is your greatest source of advantage. What is the blue shoe doing? What is the red shoe doing?

As far as tips go:

Streaky tables you are usually better off making twos the culprit so check if 2s are below normal first. They usually are. You are also best off flat betting at 2 on all straight runs. Check ZZs: ZZs are often ABOVE normal on streaky shoes. If so, flat bet at 2 on those after winning a 1,1.

Choppy tables you are usually best off making 3 or 4s the culprit. Go on straight runs with a 1 bet instead of 3 or not at all. Also if you win your OTR bet, go right back to opposites. (depending on how choppy the shoe is.) But ZZs you can go on them at a flat 2 bet one play earlier. In other words, play to the shoe's strengths.

The MOST important thing is your initial table selection. You always want the streakiest or choppiest table. On new cards it will usually be the choppiest. On night play it will usually be the streakiest. Good luck!

[Ellis]

John, if you can't read and miss the most important part of the manual, I can't help you. If you think shoe biases are daft, you are beyond anyone's help. If you think shoe biases are a whim, you can't even help yourself. They are the ONLY way you can win. What YOU are doing - now THAT is daft. You are defying plain mathematical fact. You'll never win that way.

[sevenshooter]

Sure sevenshooter.

First, if you could email me some of your played shoes I would be happy to go over them to see what you are doing wrong, if anything. That MIGHT be part of the problem.

But I strongly suspect most of the problem is that you are playing a pile of shoes out of context of the casino. You are playing under a huge handicap as I have mentioned before.

There are several options in system 40 you need to be deciding BEFORE the fact rather than after the fact as you are doing.

For instance, when we won the 40 shoes in a row it was at 5 different casinos. We didn't play the 5 different casinos the same way. We didn't even start the same way. What we did first upon arriving at the casino is we found the streakiest or the choppiest table we could find. Next we decided all our options from the tote board. THEN we sat down to play. I can't swear to this but I don't remember changing any options once we started play. If we did, it was very seldom.

As I have said before, playing a pile of shoes at home is almost a complete waste of time except from a practice standpoint. You've taken casino biases, table biases and card prep biases completely out of the picture. In other words, you have circumvented nearly all of you sources of achieving advantage. Watching what a shoe does after it starts is the least of your advantage source. Knowing what the table is doing BEFORE you start is your greatest source of advantage. What is the blue shoe doing? What is the red shoe doing?

As far as tips go:

Streaky tables you are usually better off making twos the culprit so check if 2s are below normal first. They usually are. You are also best off flat betting at 2 on all straight runs. Check ZZs: ZZs are often ABOVE normal on streaky shoes. If so, flat bet at 2 on those after winning a 1,1.

Choppy tables you are usually best off making 3 or 4s the culprit. Go on straight runs with a 1 bet instead of 3 or not at all. Also if you win your OTR bet, go right back to opposites. (depending on how choppy the shoe is.) But ZZs you can go on them at a flat 2 bet one play earlier. In other words, play to the shoe's strengths.

The MOST important thing is your initial table selection. You always want the streakiest or choppiest table. On new cards it will usually be the choppiest. On night play it will usually be the streakiest. Good luck!

Thank you

[pitty1]

So u post the system 40..and free..I don't knock anybodys free system.I retract the "flim flam" jesture for another day..Thanks for posting ur system.

[joshky]

Ellis, while i appreciate you posting your sys40 here, it still remains a strategy difficult for maybe a few like me to play. Its not 100% mechanical. Its based on "if the the shoe goes this way you bet that way".

A shoe can be very unpredictable and it amazes me how you can win 40 straight shoes with a strategy like this.

Do all your system at btc work this way now?

My thoughts

[Ellis]

Ellis, while i appreciate you posting your sys40 here, it still remains a strategy difficult for maybe a few like me to play. Its not 100% mechanical. Its based on "if the the shoe goes this way you bet that way".

A shoe can be very unpredictable and it amazes me how you can win 40 straight shoes with a strategy like this.

Do all your system at btc work this way now?

My thoughts

No joshky they don't all work that way but ALL of my systems have follow the shoe at hand characteristics because that is the ONLY way to get an advantage in Baccarat. With Sys 40, as soon as you say pick the least common culprit among 2s, 3s, and 4s, you are playing, at least somewhat, to the shoe at hand. If you always used 3s as the culprit the system would immediately become 50/50 like ALL purely mechanical progressive systems. Sys. 40 gets all its advantage from picking the least common culprit.

Correct, some shoes/tables are highly UNpredictable. That is exactly why we say FIRST, find the streakiest or choppiest table you can find. That is where Sys 40 will function best. Biased shoes are EASY to beat. Sys. 40 is only ONE way and usually NOT the best way. But we have to start someplace and Sys 40 is relatively simple.

But unbiased or as you say "highly unpredictable" shoes are ALSO easy to beat by Net Betting. Simply pick the net bet pairing that has the lowest disparity in the shoe at hand whether it be P vs B, Opposites vs Repeats, or TB4L vs OTB4L or double TB4L vs double OTB4L (The time before the time before last). When you do this you MUST have a safeguard against a surprise long run. For instance, suppose you pick P vs B because P and B are running neck and neck AT THAT TABLE. Then suppose you get 9 Banks in a row. Fine, your P prog quits after 2 or 3 losses leaving your B prog betting on the run unopposed. Your P prog picks up again where it left off AFTER the run is over. That makes long runs a GOOD thing when Net Betting.

No shoe has ever been dealt that cannot be beat by the right system. Therefore the most important strategy for a player is to determine what that system is and know how to play it. He gets his PRIMARY clue from the TABLE. He gets his fine tune clue from the shoe at hand. The faster he can tune into the best system for the shoe at hand, the higher his avg. score will be. I'm sorry but I KNOW from 30 years of experience that THAT is the ONLY way to beat Baccarat. All else is eventually futile. And I hate seeing players go down roads I already KNOW are futile.

You speak devoutly of "purely mechanical" as a GOOD thing. Yes its simple but NO, its NOT good. It is a sure proven way to lose. Simple math proves that.

Simplicity is good but not when it MAKES you lose. Watch my lips and I'll say it one more time. ALL purely mechanical systems lose. That is not an opinion, It is a fact of math.

Perhaps now you are beginning to see the advantage of knowing MULTIPLE ways to play. There is ALWAYS a BEST way to play the shoe at hand. And it certainly will not always be Sys 40. But Sys 40 beats its fair share.

[Ellis]

So u post the system 40..and free..I don't knock anybodys free system.I retract the "flim flam" jesture for another day..Thanks for posting ur system.

Thanks Pitty! I hope it helps everyone at least a little. I'm hoping everyone can begin to see why Follow the Shoe is way better than purely mechanical.

[Ellis]

John, Us old timers have been seeing and beating shoe biases far longer than you kids have been mistaking cards for random. But don't believe us. Keep playing your progs against normal occurrence. Sooner or later you will realize that it is mathematically impossible to win that way. We learned that 30 years ago. The normal frequency of events dictates you will lose your prog just often enough to break even in the long run whether the cards are random or not and regardless of what prog you play or how short or long it is or what your bet routing is. That is pure mathematical fact, not opinion. But some can only learn the hard way. You are just taking longer than most. Just trying to save you money, time, and embarrassment. Put pay no attention to experience. Keep right on trucking. Make the same mistake we already made.

Those who pay no attention to history are destined to make the same mistakes again. Be my guest. I can't stop you. You are too hard headed.

[joshky]

Ellis, think about it. Any system seller or scam may can create a system as such and say to you when you lose," bad decisions made during play. See the shoe was showing this and you should have played this" and give all the excuse that you have just given us here.

No disrespect intended.

[AZJeff]

Hello Ellis,

Just a question. Do not take it personal or critical in any way but do you have any proof either by video recording or from actual betting documents that you have been profitable trading your systems. I do not want any testimonials. I am looking for some actual proof. From your posts you indicate that you have been playing over a long time period and did webinars where you bet live. Correct me if I am wrong on the webinar part where you bet live.

Regards,
Jeff

[Ellis]

Not at all Jeff. Back in those days, long before webinars. I sold a series of 12 Baccarat manuals. Each hard bound manual usually contained several related systems or various stages of the same system and usually with ten or 20 played shoes along with complete instructions, about 80 to 100 loose leaf pages. Each manual included a 2 day training seminar either in Vegas or A.C.

Before the release of each manual I did several 2 night sales seminars in major casino cities including a public casino exhibition of the system each night, usually two shoes each night and usually with about 200 spectators. Also included were 1000 shoe computer test results conducted by a separate computer testing agency.

In addition I sent out a release notice to all previous buyers which started at 3400 from my BJ book sales.

Pricing, at that time, ranged from $1000 to $3000 per Bac. manual. BTW, each of my three BJ books sold for $445 since there are 100 BJ players for every Bac player in the US. All BJ sales also began with casino exhibitions.

I offered a full money back guarantee with each manual. The avg. industry return rate is 20% of sales. I had a total of 3 returns lifetime against thousands of manuals sold. Each were fully refunded.

I owe much of my success to the live casino exhibitions. No one else ever did that. My BJ sales only far outstripped all card counting books put together. To give you an idea, my first Bac Manual did $667,000 in sales in the first two weeks after release. I had learned to do my own publishing by then and owned all of my own publishing equipment.

MANY of my clients bought every single book I wrote, 15 in all. Repeat sales was about 80% of the business. I wrote my last book in 1996.

I'd have to check with my partner Keith Smith but I think my first forum began in 1991 or 2.

As far as system proof goes, I can tell you this much. Buyers don't trust computer results. I'd often do a 100 shoe test. They don't trust those either. What they want is they want to see you play live in a real casino. I'd guess that 95% of my sales was due to live casino exhibitions.

Ha, the card counting forums say I cheated. But think about it. What else can they say? You'll never see one of those guys do a live exhibition. Three of them tried it ONCE only. They lost!

[Ellis]

BTW, I never had a losing exhibition but I did get into trouble once in a BJ exhibition. I couldn't find a winning BJ game in the Excaliber to save my life. I had to move the whole exhibition to MGM. There I killed the first $100 BJ table I found. Did $5000 in 20 minutes W/O betting over $300. Whew! The best were the two I did at the Taj in A.C. Did $10,000 in a half hour both times W/O betting over $200. The second Taj was the best because Jerry and Nancy Patterson were watching right over my shoulder. Took me to dinner afterward. Tasted GOOD! It's all just fond memories now. And Garnabby ruins even those. BTW, he actually watched my group play Bac once at the Gold Coast. We killed the shoe so, of course now Garnabby denies ever being there. He forgets that he introduced himself to 5 of my guys BEFORE we started that shoe. I guess we were supposed to lose. We didn't!

[garnabby]

Hello Ellis,

Just a question. Do not take it personal or critical in any way but do you have any proof either by video recording or from actual betting documents that you have been profitable trading your systems. I do not want any testimonials. I am looking for some actual proof. From your posts you indicate that you have been playing over a long time period and did webinars where you bet live. Correct me if I am wrong on the webinar part where you bet live.

Regards,
Jeff

AZ,

Please allow me to intercede on common sense's behalf.

BTC is strictly for the "suckers"... it's ALL MADE UP, and nonsense to boot. Ellis has never answered a single straight-up question from any of the regulars here, such as myself, or on any of the other baccarat/bj sites.

Eg, there is a thread about Ellis which he still is afraid to answer up to, at E. Clifton Davis Card Clumping - Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com , on that more-reputable site with real PhD's, players, et al... leading to the only valid historical record of his "work" anywhere, at New Blackjack, Same Old Baloney: Review of E. Clifton Davis' NBJ and WCB Blackjack Systems (, except for the further material about him throughout this site.)

sillE Elli's only "game" is about recruiting the latest "suckers"/losers to his cultishly-controlled junk-site of one "nutty" system after another, and where no one has ever won anything for long... i mean, he has a lot of "time on his hands" here, right, for someone so accomplished in so many completely-different fields? Lol.

At least this is all getting easier. About a week since i last visited, and it only took me an hour to read the latest stuff... and do the "anti-scamming" thing, for the sake of this site. (There are a lot of defunct baccarat-sites out there... first the scamming, then the spamming, then the porn, etc.)

[AZJeff]

Hello Ellis,

I really would like to believe your systems really make money but I am not a person that believes it unless I have documented proof. I do not consider book sales as documented proof. I would like to have been at one of the live exhibitions as then I could see myself. Will you do another live exhibition? If you would do that I would definitely attend and if you are profitable at it then I will give you and everyone else a honest review. Were any of the previous exhibitions recorded? If so can you post it on your website for people to view?

Regards,
Jeff

Not at all Jeff. Back in those days, long before webinars. I sold a series of 12 Baccarat manuals. Each hard bound manual usually contained several related systems or various stages of the same system and usually with ten or 20 played shoes along with complete instructions, about 80 to 100 loose leaf pages. Each manual included a 2 day training seminar either in Vegas or A.C.

Before the release of each manual I did several 2 night sales seminars in major casino cities including a public casino exhibition of the system each night, usually two shoes each night and usually with about 200 spectators. Also included were 1000 shoe computer test results conducted by a separate computer testing agency.

In addition I sent out a release notice to all previous buyers which started at 3400 from my BJ book sales.

Pricing, at that time, ranged from $1000 to $3000 per Bac. manual. BTW, each of my three BJ books sold for $445 since there are 100 BJ players for every Bac player in the US. All BJ sales also began with casino exhibitions.

I offered a full money back guarantee with each manual. The avg. industry return rate is 20% of sales. I had a total of 3 returns lifetime against thousands of manuals sold. Each were fully refunded.

I owe much of my success to the live casino exhibitions. No one else ever did that. My BJ sales only far outstripped all card counting books put together. To give you an idea, my first Bac Manual did $667,000 in sales in the first two weeks after release. I had learned to do my own publishing by then and owned all of my own publishing equipment.

MANY of my clients bought every single book I wrote, 15 in all. Repeat sales was about 80% of the business. I wrote my last book in 1996.

I'd have to check with my partner Keith Smith but I think my first forum began in 1991 or 2.

As far as system proof goes, I can tell you this much. Buyers don't trust computer results. I'd often do a 100 shoe test. They don't trust those either. What they want is they want to see you play live in a real casino. I'd guess that 95% of my sales was due to live casino exhibitions.

Ha, the card counting forums say I cheated. But think about it. What else can they say? You'll never see one of those guys do a live exhibition. Three of them tried it ONCE only. They lost!

[AZJeff]

Hello garnabby,

I always go by common sense but I do give people that chance to prove what they say is accurate or not. I would be interested in attending an exhibition if he does one. Then I can give a honest review on it. As a customer, I will always want documented proof not just someone saying this or that.

Regards,
Jeff

AZ,

Please allow me to intercede on common sense's behalf.

BTC is strictly for the "suckers"... it's ALL MADE UP, and nonsense to boot. Ellis has never answered a single straight-up question from any of the regulars here, such as myself, or on any of the other baccarat/bj sites.

Eg, there is a thread about Ellis which he still is afraid to answer up to, at E. Clifton Davis Card Clumping - Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com , on that more-reputable site with real PhD's, players, et al... leading to the only valid historical record of his "work" anywhere, at New Blackjack, Same Old Baloney: Review of E. Clifton Davis' NBJ and WCB Blackjack Systems (, except for the further material about him throughout this site.)

sillE Elli's only "game" is about recruiting the latest "suckers"/losers to his cultishly-controlled junk-site of one "nutty" system after another, and where no one has ever won anything for long... i mean, he has a lot of "time on his hands" here, right, for someone so accomplished in so many completely-different fields? Lol.

At least this is all getting easier. About a week since i last visited, and it only took me an hour to read the latest stuff... and do the "anti-scamming" thing, for the sake of this site. (There are a lot of defunct baccarat-sites out there... first the scamming, then the spamming, then the porn, etc.)

[garnabby]

Hello garnabby,

I always go by common sense but I do give people that chance to prove what they say is accurate or not. I would be interested in attending an exhibition if he does one. Then I can give a honest review on it. As a customer, I will always want documented proof not just someone saying this or that.

Regards,
Jeff

Hi Jeff,

You remind me of SeeJerek here, from a year ago, who used to post a lot on www.vlsroulette.com .

Also he came here, looking for some iron-clad reason for not joining in with old sillE, for $500 back then.

There just is no way to convince someone whose mind is already made up, as at My Open Challenge to Ellis at Beat the Casino Forums . And just when it looked like we were starting to "get through" to him, on one lonely/desperate night for him he emails a complete stranger $500+ for nothing up front (but known lies, failed refunds and promises), pleading, "Uncle Ellis, you said you could make me a winner, please... ." And such iron-clad reasons just don't exist, sorry.

Well, one of the last posts from SeeJerek, at vls, exclaimed how his grandparents (over in Malaysia) were w/o food so he could buy milk for his baby. And old sillE saying, "He didn't play it right!" SeeJerek was a decent guy, but no one deserves BTC.

[AZJeff]

Helo Garnabby,

I am not Jerek nor do I know him. I am in Las Vegas now. I used to be in Phoenix. Hence the az in my username. Anyone can be a nice person and I am sure there are many nice commercial business people. Whether they are selling gambling systems or selling stock buying systems. In either example, I require documentation from the seller that their product does what it says it does. If the seller is not able to provide that then I just move on. If Ellis comes to Las Vegas and wants to put on another exhibition then I will go see it. Also, I will give a honest review on it. It is up to him if he would like to do that. No worries if he does not as I will not go any further unless he does.

Also, Garnabby,

If you get time I would like to see a reply to a question that I asked you in this thread?
Seeking Baccarat Colleague
Post #9

Regards,
Jeff

Hi Jeff,

You remind me of SeeJerek here, from a year ago, who used to post a lot on www.vlsroulette.com .

Also he came here, looking for some iron-clad reason for not joining in with old sillE, for $500 back then.

There just is no way to convince someone whose mind is already made up, as at My Open Challenge to Ellis at Beat the Casino Forums . And just when it looked like we were starting to "get through" to him, on one lonely/desperate night for him he emails a complete stranger $500+ for nothing up front (but known lies, failed refunds and promises), pleading, "Uncle Ellis, you said you could make me a winner, please... ." And such iron-clad reasons just don't exist, sorry.

Well, one of the last posts from SeeJerek, at vls, exclaimed how his grandparents (over in Malaysia) were w/o food so he could buy milk for his baby. And old sillE saying, "He didn't play it right!" SeeJerek was a decent guy, but no one deserves BTC.

[Ellis]

AZ, I haven't done any exhibitions since '95. But I do occasionally play with my students in Tunica and Vegas. You are certainly welcome to come and watch or play with us. Garnabby has. Ask him about it. But ask him here on the forum. If you PM him he will lie as he just did with Davel.

[AZJeff]

Hello Ellis,

The next time you play in Las Vegas please message me. Also, I will give a honest review of that as well.

Regards,
Jeff

AZ, I haven't done any exhibitions since '95. But I do occasionally play with my students in Tunica and Vegas. You are certainly welcome to come and watch or play with us. Garnabby has. Ask him about it. But ask him here on the forum. If you PM him he will lie as he just did with Davel.

[Ellis]

Be happy to Jeff.

[nt1]

Hi Ellis,

I am a fan of your work so far. I do read in detail about your strategies, I just wish your beat the casino site is free so we can all talk as a community.

Last night I did 2 shoes
1. I started in the middle and was +12 units betting opposites and doubling down on 2s and back to 1 on 3s. It was a good shoe I beat

But...

The next shoe I started from the beggining. I noticed there were barely any 1's usually 3s 4s and occasional 2's. I figured since you said 1's occur in every 4 hands that eventually down the shoe it will break off in to 1's. This shoe around the 40th hand still was repeating. Longest it went was 5 Players.

I know I missed out on some of your rules like if it is a streaky shoe go with it. But I was so in the groove with noticing that the shoe before had barely any 1s and 2s I capitalized on it. But the second shoe kept going.

How would you play that 2nd shoe?

Thanks BTW guys appreciate the details you guys do on these forums.

[davel]

Hi Ellis,

I am a fan of your work so far. I do read in detail about your strategies, I just wish your beat the casino site is free so we can all talk as a community.

Last night I did 2 shoes
1. I started in the middle and was +12 units betting opposites and doubling down on 2s and back to 1 on 3s. It was a good shoe I beat

But...

The next shoe I started from the beggining. I noticed there were barely any 1's usually 3s 4s and occasional 2's. I figured since you said 1's occur in every 4 hands that eventually down the shoe it will break off in to 1's. This shoe around the 40th hand still was repeating. Longest it went was 5 Players.

I know I missed out on some of your rules like if it is a streaky shoe go with it. But I was so in the groove with noticing that the shoe before had barely any 1s and 2s I capitalized on it. But the second shoe kept going.

How would you play that 2nd shoe?

Thanks BTW guys appreciate the details you guys do on these forums.

System40 is best for choppy parts of the shoe.

For streaky parts of the shoe, simply betting repeat works great. (Just keep betting the same side as the last winner.) Or, TBL (time-before-last: bet on the side prior to the last winner).

[nt1]

If I bet TBL then wouldn't that mean I would be betting the chops if it chops?
Ex

P B so here I bet P th chop.

If it's a streak I can see how it can run

p
p so bet p again.

[davel]

If I bet TBL then wouldn't that mean I would be betting the chops if it chops?
Ex

P B so here I bet P th chop.

If it's a streak I can see how it can run

p
p so bet p again.

Correct: TBL is good for both zig-zag chops as well as streaks.

[nt1]

Define zig zag?

and what is OTBL?

[davel]

Define zig zag?

and what is OTBL?

Zig-zag is just a lot of consecutive 1s: 11111 ... it looks like it is zig-zagging between P and B, the ultimate chop.

OTBL = "Opposite Time Before Last":
Bet on the side that is on the opposite side of the one before the last side that won. For example, if the last two winners had been Player-Banker (where Banker was the last winner), then choose Banker, because it is opposite Player.

TBL = "Time Before Last":
Bet on the side that is on the same side of the one before the last side that won. For example, if the last two winners had been Player-Banker (where Banker was the last winner), then choose Player, because it is the same side as Player.

Notice that OTBL will win most of the time in a shoe rich in 2s and 3s.

Notice that TBL will win most of the time in a choppy/streaky shoe, one that's rich in 1s and 4+s.