Thread: System 40: Ellis Clifton Davis

[moved]

Originally Posted by John

... you couldn't exactly discuss the game with gannetBABY, he has nothing to contribute, he has no experience, well least not of winning. This board will be as barren as his own spiffy site.

Which "game" are youze playing, lol?

At least he got his latest whining in the right forum... "shooting the breeze".

Originally Posted by John

Ellis, I was looking forward to reading about the system which won 40 straight shoe, which you where about to post before you where interrupted by the resident troll.

John,

When I read the message about Ellis posting up his Sys40 play, I was kind of surprised. It is a very good play and with a few options to suit the indiviual player, it does very well. It was one of my "go to" plays for quite some time when I saw a shoe pointing towards it.

And now he was going to just post it up here? Wow. That would have been a pretty good deal for those that wanted to run with it.

AD

I am by no means a Garnabby-like detractor but Ellis is way, way too full of himself and a bit sad. I feel sorry for him.

Yeah... way to fast here pulling the system40.. knowing ol garnold is going to spring the trap for more membership.(yeah i know u can get it at ur BTC site).Why don't u post system 40? ohh so garngy speaks for all of us huh?
Don't leave ellis..Reading ur stuff reminds me of your times..when u guys skipped from town to town by train..promising a quick buck to the unbeknowest.then going back to the campsite with a fresh bottle of ripple and catch the next train out near the RR crossings...What did they call them? o yeah flim flam man...Could u at least post a system 20 or a system 10?.. for all? Remember reverse psychology sells too..

Originally Posted by pitty1

Don't leave ellis..Reading ur stuff reminds me of your times..when u guys skipped from town to town by train..promising a quick buck to the unbeknowest.then going back to the campsite with a fresh bottle of ripple and catch the next train out near the RR crossings...What did they call them? o yeah flim flam man...Could u at least post a system 20 or a system 10?.. for all? Remember reverse psychology sells too..

Ooooh, great post. That'll make sure he comes in and hands out Sys40 for sure.

All GBaby has to do was wait a single day. One lousy day, and you all could have jumped all over Ellis, his system and his theories.

Nope, Garnabby just couldn't wait to stick one more jab at anybody not part of GWorld so he killed it for everybody. Not a bad day's work for a clown who doesn't even play the game.

Nicely done.

AD (another winning day at BPH again, thank you)

Sys40. 40 straight wins? hmm. Sure will be looking out for this one.

I find it interesting that every time E would mention that "40 wins" thing that everyone generally just laughs at it or says it's fake or whatever.

It might be for you, but there are SEVERAL of us currently playing who are in that range of wins at this very moment.

Don't let your own predjudices blind you to what's available out there.

Or, continue blindly along with whatever you're doing now.

Personally, I thought Sys40 was much better than anything I saw from Izak and it was much cheaper to play!

AD

Originally Posted by ADulay

I find it interesting that every time E would mention that "40 wins" thing that everyone generally just laughs at it or says it's fake or whatever.

AD

I don't doubt that at all. But how he stated that it might have been a world record back then just makes him a desperate person looking for approval. Hey, maybe I win 20 or maybe 30 or so in a row big whoopie. If he wants to impress he should hire Guiness Book of W. R. to trail him every waking moment at the casino and try to pull off maybe 1,000 shoe win in a row in one try over a marathon period then that would be impressive. I guess it's all the BTC championing allowed that happens in here kind of hits the nerve a little bit.

Ellis, suck it in and throw these eager members a bone already. You and Garns' massive egos just kills the forum in here and either one of you or both needs to go. Or genuinely help the members in here with a concrete system. You are as you stated a millionaire many times over and at the twilight of your life. It's sad to see you still pushing $50 sales when to the members in here it's not about the cost, it's about trying to trust you in a sea of charlatans. And referencing your site with anecdotes of your success I doubt you have converted many sales in here, I could be wrong, and again that is not the point. It just comes off as desperate and you come off less trusting.

And Garnabby is some kind of a literary idiot or something. If a newbie like me can eventually make a living, which I am quite confident of, off this stuff then he wasted all his valuable time detracting people for naught.

AHH chill with the guilt...Ellis been bangin his cane.. hiding no fact he is a salesman and for 30 odd yrs..System 40 is just a curiosity sales tactic to drum up more subscriptions.He knows the game all to well, including the punchline...who could not see that coming?If he has to hide or "dodge" from any challenges..then whats the point of selling.. if he don't believe in what he is selling.He did say he was going to post the "sys40" for free(Try this for a hardline sale.. "were not good enough for it")..I never heard of system 40 until it was brought up in a recent post...i guess only paying customers know of this grail.Well heres a live shoe tnite.. 8 deck auto shuffle.maybe i can save him some time setting up his scanner and he can walk the" system 40" step by step to prove it's worth..(BTW i did not have to use any bought systems to walk away with wins on this shoe.)
BB
P
BB
PPPPP
BBB
PP
B
PPTP
BB
PTT
B
P
B
P
BBTBTBT
P
BBBBTB
P
BBBBBBBBBTBTB
P
BB
PP
BBBB
PTP
B
PP
B
P
BB

Who the hell is Mark?

Johno..u have great networking capabilities..I'm sure u will find it...and also let us know if theres any meat to it?...maybe that shoe i post last nite was too tough? heres one tnite that I can only compare as a perfect shoe.Shoes come out like this all the time... I could afford a different mistress every nite.
8 deck auto shuffle
PPPPPP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
P
BBBBBB
PPP
BB
PPP
BBB
PP
BB
PTP
B
PPP
BBBB
PT
BBB
PP
BB
P
BBB
P
BB
P
BBB...got to drunk to finish the shoe..everytime the player or banker switched... look at the repeat to follow...rad...Ellis dissapoints free offer of system 40..would make one wonder of money back satsifaction (if there is one) for forum membership.Sorry but if u hired a good advertising agent.. most probably would have suggest u price ur monthly subscription to 49.99 instead of 50.00 per month..it's that penny thing thats holding me back.

Thanks for the review johno..before hopping on one system to another...I'm still waiting for the tons of great reviews with IBS8..(so far i haven't heard a peep).I have noticed a few players tracking shoes 6 columns vertical on the scorecards.(don't know what or if they are looking for patterns).and they have done well this week..I did read of better success tracking 6 patterns by u or other posters here..may have to bump mine up
soon..Welp best of luck to all here over the weekend..Take any wins u can...

Originally Posted by John

Ellis, I was looking forward to reading about the system which won 40 straight shoe, which you where about to post before you where interrupted by the resident troll. Unfortunately gannetBABY as usual fucks it up for everybody else. While I don’t personally subscribe to paying for systems that aren’t bullet proof, I did enjoy your ZZ approach many moons ago.

What people who "actually play the game" have to realise. We all know Ellis promotes his site, it's your choice to go there or not, it is a pain in the ass to constantly read the self promotions. However if ELLIS LEFT, gannetBABY could never fill his shoes, you couldn't exactly discuss the game with gannetBABY, he has nothing to contribute, he has no experience, well least not of winning. This board will be as barren as his own spiffy site.

Agree or disagree with Ellis's methods, at least you can talk game with him, skip the promotions, but he's been around a lot and probably seen most of what people think about. You can discuss the game and strategies with Ellis, even if you end up disagreeing. How the hell could you discuss the game with an imbecile (mark) who struggles to put together a coherent sentence and wouldn’t recognise his arse from his elbow when it comes to the game of Baccarat.

Well, particularly coming from John who is certainly not usually a supporter of mine, OK, I'll give you a taste of System 40. Just a couple of remarks first:

Someone mentioned an out of control ego: Look, there is a huge difference between ego and knowing your stuff. Ego has no place in Baccarat. Ego is your worst enemy in a Baccarat game. Ego is what makes you follow that negative prog to oblivion. Ego causes huge losses.

Knowing your stuff is not ego. Knowing your stuff helps you in a Baccarat game. It keeps you on the straight and narrow W/O losing your cool. It gets you OUT of trouble.

Also, I lost my temper back there. That is NOT cool. That can kill you in a Baccarat game. NEVER be that weak. Walk away. In a Baccarat game you MUST possess full control of ALL your faculties. NEVER play mad. Leave instead! OK I'll start System 40 in the next post. No, its not our best and we seldom play it by itself. But with enough practice, ANYONE can learn to win with this system. Isn't that the whole point of this forum?

System 40 beats MOST shoe types while virtually never suffering a big loss.

You'll have to bear with me because this will not be easy because I can't post a shoe sample on this forum as I can on mine BUT I can give you the sample verbally. So let's get started.

OK, I'll use the first shoe above that Pity 1 was good enough to furnish.

First, to make this shoe very easy to transpose onto your own card, we would express it this way:

B 212532131
B 11111141513
B 8122421
P 2112

The columns are 20 plays long. The P or B denotes which side the col starts on. The numbers are how many Ps or Bs in a row. You should be able to transpose this shoe to your own card W/O error by glancing at my shoe about 7 times or less. Eventually you can do it in 4 glances.

First, what should we notice about this shoe?

In no particular order:

First, its a short shoe being only 66 plays long (W/O ties) against a norm of 72.

Note, we don't record ties because they are the dumbest sucker bet in the casino. 8 to 1 payout vs 10 to 1 odds - horrible. I don't care what ANYONE says - YOU CANNOT PREDICT TIES PERIOD!

More important, this shoe has an O/R count of -9 in spite of a ZZ run of 7. This is a VERY streak favorable shoe. In a casino, I would Exploit this shoe with TB4L U1D1 M3 with a base of 2. I would have scored +37 units. It is HIGHLY likely this shoe came from an overall streaky table. Surprise -9 count shoes are nearly non existent in real casinos. But we aren't here to discuss Exploiting.


Your O/R count is +1 for every opposite, -1 for every Repeat = -9.

An Opposite is when the opposite side wins and a repeat is when the same side wins. I ALWAYS keep an O/R count.

Card set up:

Set your card up in 4 vertical columns of 20 plays.

Your column headings are ALWAYS P B S in that order because that is the order in which the game is played.

To get you started the first column is: BB P BB PPPPP BBB PP B PPP B = 20.

Standard System 40 Rules:

Starting at play 2 bet 1's will stay 1, 2's will stay 2 and 3s will go to 4.

I used a simple 123 Negative prog. When I won I went Back to 1.
When I lost the 3, I went back to 1.

However, when I lost the 3, the next time a 3 came up I bet 4.

If I lost the 4, I still went back to 1 but the next time a 3 came up I bet 5 and so forth.

Remember, when you lose a 3 or more you always go back to 1.

But if you win a 3 or more you stay at 2 on the run until you lose. (optional) Then always back to 1.

Also when you win a 1,1 go to 2 on the ZZ run until you lose. When you lose go back to 1.

OK, here I'm playing it virtually 3 high except for the prog within a prog.

I did this because this shore keeps favoring streak. I stayed at 2 on the runs because I was seeing lots of runs. This is all optional depending on the shoe at hand. You can opt to play it 2 Hi except for the prog within a prog.

Now, why does this win?

It's all about the prog within a prog. You are ALWAYS betting your highest bet that a 3 will go to 4. Your odds of eventually winning this bet are very close to 100% because shoes with NO 4 or more are almost non existent. About 1 out of 500. Get it?

Now, I could have quit when I won my 5 bet at play 30 with a +4 but sticking it out until the last play, I won +21, down from +22. Not bad with a single highest bet of 5 units.

That gives me a high bet to score ratio better than 1 to 4. That is extremely good. Most systems only carry a ratio about 1/1 or often worse.

See, its all about math. That is only one reason why simple progressive systems are so bad. Their highest bet to score ratio is horrible.

Stats:

Single highest bet = 5
Total units wagered = 114
Avg. bet size = 1.73 units
Player Advantage = 18.4%! This directly compares to the 0.5% that card counters strive to achieve but never do.

Understand?

OK, I'll attempt to transpose the entire played shoe so you have a record of this game played System 40 correctly.

Study it until you can also play it correctly. Then practice on other shoes until you can win about 85% of the shoes YOU play. Then you are ready for a casino but not before that.

Oh, one other point. Recognize I did not pick this shoe. I simply played the first shoe presented.

Oh, and one last point. This is one of our poorest systems at BTC.

Now, let me figure a way to transcribe this whole played shoe for those interested.

Or, you could get Garnabby to teach you how to play.

More Sys 40 notes:

As soon as you say "bet 3s will go to 4", you are making 3's the culprit. While 3s are standard, you want your culprit to be whatever event that is occurring BELOW normal. I's are normally one every 4 plays, 2s = 1 every 8 plays, 3s every 16 plays and so 4th.

While 3s were high at the beginning, so were twos and 4 or mores. No good choice there. But as the shoe progressed 3's got less and less until all 3s went to 4 - perfect.

Events are 1's, 2s, 3s, 4s and so forth.

The idea is to beat the most events possible.

1's are half of ALL events. As soon as you say "bet 1s will stay 1's, you beat half of all events except 1's following 3s. Then as soon as you say bet 2s will stay 2 you beat nearly 3/4 of all events.

Note you beat all ZZ runs. You beat all TT runs BB PP BB PP.

But also note the 4 and 5 streaks in col 2. You beat those as well right along with the 7 ZZ. Then you kill the 11 straight in col 3.

3s are your only culprit so when 3s are high change your culprit to 4s or 2s whichever is running the most BELOW normal. Baccarat is that simple. Now are you beginning to understand the importance of knowing exactly what normal is?

Ego, my ass. It's all about knowing what you are doing and WHY! It's about avoiding high bets. It's about huge Player Advantage. It's about your high bet to score ratio. Your Avg bet size. In other words its ALL about Math. Ego has nothing to do with it except cause you to lose. Get it?

Ok, transpose the unplayed shoe to your card. A 1/4" graph pad is perfect for this. WalMart

Set up your card as described and put your winning circles in. (Circle the square of the side that won.) Make your circles the full size of the squares so you can put your bets in them.

Now put your bets and score in as follows:

Column 1

# PB S
1. __ _
2. 1_ -1
3. 2_ +1
4. _1 +2
5. 1_ +1
6. 2_ +3
7. _1 +2
8. _2 0
9. 3_ +3
10 2_ +5
11 2_ +3
12 1_ +2
13 2_ 0
14 _3 -3
15 -1 -4
16 -2 -2
17 1_ -1
18 -1 -2
19 _2 -4
20 4_ -8

Column 2

# PB S
1. 1_ -9
2. 2_ -7
3. -1 -6
4. 1_ -5
5. -2 -3
6. 2_ -1
7. _2 +1
8. 2_ -1
9. 1_ -2
10 _5 +4
11 _2 +2
12 _1 +3
13 1_ +2
14 2_ 0
15 -3 +3
16 _2 +5
17 -2 +3
18 _1 +4
19 1_ +3
20 2_ +1

Column 3
# PB S

1. _3 +4
2. _2 +6
3. _2 +8
4. _2 +10
5. _2 +12
6. _2 +14
7. _2 +16
8. -2 +18
9. _2 +16
10 -1 +17
11 1_ +16
12 2_ +18
13 _1 +17
14 -2 +19
15 1_ +18
16 2_ +16
17 _3 +19
18 _2 +17
19 _1 +16
20 _2 +18

Column 4
# PB S
1. 1_ +19
2. -1 +18
3. _2 +20
4. 1_ +21
5. _1 +22
6. 1_ +21 Finish

All plays are correct. What are your questions?

Is it like this?

Yes, the shoe started in the red but this is normal for Sys 40 because you are building up to your largest bet which sooner or later has about a 100% win rate.

A stop loss of -15 or so is appropriate for the betting aggression I used but you seldom hit that. Also a +20 stop win is good.

Your highest bet is usually 5 or 6 but I've won many shoes with a high bet of 8.

It is important to play within your comfort range.

It would be good if you put your bets in red at plays 14, 20 and 30. This is your prog within a prog.

Note that I went to a flat bet of 2 in the ZZ at the top of col 2 after winning a 1,1 and also in the long straight run at the top of col 3 after a winning 3 bet. This is optional and AGAIN should only be done in a streaky game.

Another trick of the trade in VERY choppy shoes is to bet a 3 stays 3 and a 4 stays 4 and never go on a straight run.

The more you play it the better you do. Recognize that I did not win 40 straight on my first day of playing this. But I worked my way up to it pretty quick. Just ALWAYS be aware of what shoe type/ table type you are playing. That is the secret of Baccarat.

Holy Grail? No, but you can see it from here!

Just remember, you are out to win, not to kill. Don't get greedy.

Originally Posted by Dak

Is it like this?

Hey DAK, thanks but I can't check it with these old eyes. Good try though. If we could only enlarge that somehow. We need you young computer buffs to show off a little.

Geez, on my forum I could have done the whole thing in minutes instead of hours. Maybe you guys could talk Mike into a slight upgrade. I'm sure if we had a good shoe posting method it would get a lot of use by all. It would put some fire into this forum. There are LOTs of good ways to play. Unfortunately there are a lot more BAD ways than good ways.

I hope I didn't make any mistakes but you never know with these eyes. If you see anything peculiar let me know. Sometimes I add wrong.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Hey DAK, thanks but I can't check it with these old eyes. Good try though. If we could only enlarge that somehow. We need you young computer buffs to show off a little.

Double click on the attachment and it will come up in normal size.

Also, for posting up here, using a link rather than an attachment would work better, but that's just me.

Well, I'm a little dismayed that I got NO questions.

This could be that I explained it so well that no one has a question. That would be a first.

I think it much more likely that I explained it so poorly that no one can formulate a question. I'm used to teaching students that are already used to my lingo. Maybe no one gets it???

Of course there is always the don't give a shits. But I find it hard to believe that everyone is in that category.

What don't you understand? What are your questions? What terminology do you not understand?

In my book, there is no such thing as a dumb question. I'm sure I've heard them all. What are YOUR questions?

Maybe you all get +21s on all your shoes. Ha!

For those of you who drew out your own shoe, if any, I'd like to point out a few things.

First note the Ones: Unfortunately this shoe was very short in 1 in a rows with only 13 vs a norm of 18. We'd prefer shoes normal or high in 1's because we always do well on the ones. We only lost the 3 ones that followed long runs but we won on the other 10. This is normal.

Twos: 2's were normal at 9. We beat all 9 which is also normal.

Threes: We clearly lost on 3's because we made 3s the culprit because this shoe was low in 3s. That is normal when we make 3s the culprit.

4 or mores: We clearly won all of them which is normal.

ZZs: we clearly won all of them which is normal.

TTs; we clearly won all of them which is normal.

Straight runs: We won all but the 3s.

So we ended up losing to 3s so we could win to all other events, which we clearly did. And if 3s had been high we would have made 4s the culprit.

There is an average of 36 events in a shoe. We beat ALL but the 3s. There are an average of 4.5 3's per shoe.

Get it?

ANYONE, through practice, can get good enough at System 40 to win nearly every shoe.

Now, to play it 2 Hi, you simply replace the 3 bet with a 1 bet. When you lose that initial on the run 1 bet, next time the on the run bet comes up, bet 2. I think had I played it 2 Hi it actually would have done 2 units better. Note the 3 red on the run bets: Instead of losing a 3 and a 4 and winning the 5, I would have lost a 1 and a 2 and won a 3 which is actually 2 units better. Get it? That might be the better way to play it and more conservative to boot. It makes it that much harder to actually lose a shoe. And it greatly improves your Player Advantage. But note that instead of winning 4 3 bets I would have won 4 1 bets so my score would have been +19 instead of +21. But + 19 is VERY GOOD for essentially 2 Hi betting with a single 3 bet, right?

In fact, that's my tip for the day!

Whoops, I made a mistake in that last up there. Had we played it 2 Hi we would have made 6 units less, not 2. So we woulld have scored +15 playing 2 Hi with the exception of the one 3 bet. Still very good.

+15 in a very choppy shoe at dublinnet with a 4 unit high bet on the progression suggested by Ellis. I like the progression and I like the way it defines the nemesis pattern. You could play a variation where only player runs of three or banker runs of three were the enemy.

Good job! Nearly a 1 to 4 high bet to score ratio. That is extremely good. And about a 15% Player Advantage. And also right, that method of splitting the prog or delaying the prog, whatever you choose to call it, is a new concept for this forum as far as I know. New concepts get you thinking about other ways to exploit the concept. Gets the juices going.

I know I keep harping about Player Advantage and you guys might wonder why it makes any difference???

Player Advantage defines risk. The higher your Player Advantage the lower your risk. Player Advantage is units won divided by units bet. It is ROI or Return On Investment. Our stock broker friends here can tell us the value of ROI. So can our business friends.

The more you think of gaming as a business, the better you will do. There are proven rules to follow. For instance, no Corporation on earth would make a capital expenditure that expected an ROI of 0.5 % like card counters do every day they play. BUT show them where their return is 15% and they will buy every time. And rightfully so.