Thread: A Baccarat Strategy That Actually Works

My "gambling" background was never originally Baccarat.
I started counting down single deck Blackjack games in Nevada in the 1990s when the games were ripe. I did very well at that.

After BJ conditions worsened just after the turn of the millenium, I switched to playing poker. I sat in Hold'em ring games for years and barely managed to stay ahead of the game. I finally concluded that against nine opponents and a rake, the game is not profitable. Perhaps I am right about this, or maybe poker's just not my thing....

Craps became my area of concentration and it took me about two years to perfect my throw and develop a winning strategy. Yes, I can beat Craps, but the fact of the matter is that it's physically exhausting. Standing for long hours repeatedly throwing the dice, focussing 100% on each throw begins to take a toll on the body. My hips ache.

When I came across this forum about six months ago, I became fascinated with and skeptical of claims that a 50-50 game of chance could be beaten over the long run. I followed these threads closely even before becoming a member. In time, I began to discern the good advice from the bad, the real contributors from the, "trolls".

In short, I took what I needed from this site, improved upon it and made it my own. After months of experimentation, I developed my own strategy. My strategy is based on an amalgam of Bryan's Trigger Method of betting with banker trends and John1234's notion of betting against infrequent patterns. The statistics Ellis offered concerning the frequency of events (ones, twos, threes, etc..) were also remarkably useful for me.

Over the last four days I played exactly 50 shoes at the Edgewater Casino here in Vancouver. I did not, "pre-screen", shoes nor did I filter or omit results. Just fifty straight shoes played from beginning to end. By the way, I use absolutely no progression whatsoever. Strictly flat-betting.

Results:

50 shoes: +90 Units
Bryan's Trigger Method: +38 units
My Own Method: +52 units

Flat betting $100 each time, I made just under $9000 in four days.

After using Bryan's strategy for some time, I really began to appreciate how it plays out. Shoe after shoe, the result will hover around zero: Up one unit, down one unit; zero; plus two, down one; minus one; zero. You begin to wonder whether or not you're just breaking even. Yet once every ten shoes or so, you'll come across a shoe that favors and captures the pattern you're betting on. Plus seven, eight, or nine units is not uncommon with these shoes. It takes a lot of patience to play Bryan's strategy, but it works.

My own flat-betting system of betting against the appearance of an uncommon pattern and betting for more frequent ones owes much to Sniper Assassin. If you've been following my posts, you'll know I had earlier expressed interest in that system. I played it with good results. The only thing that made me wary of Sniper was its high bet progression.
I do believe John1234 said somewhere that he was modifying the betting to a 1-2 progression...Well, anyway, I modified mine to flat-bets alone.

Over the last month of, "paper-betting", this system, I can honestly say I've never had a losing session. Oh, I've lost two, three or four bets in a row, and, yes, I've lost some shoes (the maximum loss being -6 units). Yet I've always come out ahead per session.

I believe the key to winning is simple:

1. Your strategy must be logical and must respect the math of the game.

2. If you can't beat the game flat-betting, then you won't beat it with a progression.

3. You must play each shoe from beginning to end. You can't climb up several units and then, "get out early". That just doesn't make sense.

4. You don't need a large bankroll to win. If you actually have a strong advantage, 40 units will suffice. Start small, and build big. Even if you started with $25 units, it wouldn't take long before you were betting $500 - $1000 a hand.

I'll be taking a gambling holiday starting June 18th, 2010. I plan on playing for ten straight days. Hoping to demonstrate how one can turn a small bank into a larger one, my goal is to turn $1500 into $15,000 over that trip. I think it would be fun if I posted my daily results in a thread in this forum.

I look forward to your comments.

Sevenshooter

Hey 7. For the few of us who live in Vancouver. When will you be going to the Edgewater?

Originally Posted by anotherusernametaken

Hey 7. For the few of us who live in Vancouver. When will you be going to the Edgewater?

Hi,

Well, from June 18th, I'll be starting my demonstration at the Edgewater.
You're welcome to observe.

7,

that sounds great! that is the main reason why most of us are here to learn from others and improve our game,

to be honest, even if everybody shared his way of playing we all know that once you get to the casino unless you are 100% disciplined everybody changes and there are many factor that affect the way we play,

so good for you! hopefully you can post your results and give us some tips in order to improve our play.

by the way, quick question, you mentioned that your style of play is a combination of Bryans triggers and something else? what kind of play is the other system?

best regards,

Originally Posted by grassshopper

7,

that sounds great! that is the main reason why most of us are here to learn from others and improve our game,

to be honest, even if everybody shared his way of playing we all know that once you get to the casino unless you are 100% disciplined everybody changes and there are many factor that affect the way we play,

so good for you! hopefully you can post your results and give us some tips in order to improve our play.

by the way, quick question, you mentioned that your style of play is a combination of Bryans triggers and something else? what kind of play is the other system?

best regards,

The other strategy, bets one unit, twice, against the occurrence of a pattern that only appears about once every 1.75 shoes. When that pattern does finally emerge, since I'm flat-betting, I only lose a total of two units. So, even when that nemesis pattern shows, I'll usually end up even (sometimes down), or up one or two units per shoe. In my strategy, the most you can ever lose is -6 units per shoe: this happened to me just once out of the fifty shoes played. Another added advantage is that when I capture a long Player streak, I'm also up multiple units.

At this point, I don't want to give too much away, but I don't mind giving out the gist of the method. We're all here to win.

7, how come you are not playing until June 18? How did you play 50 shoes in 4 days. They usually take more than an hour to play one shoe. Were you there 13 hours plus per day? user

Originally Posted by anotherusernametaken

7, how come you are not playing until June 18? How did you play 50 shoes in 4 days. They usually take more than an hour to play one shoe. Were you there 13 hours plus per day? user

As you probably know, over the weekend, the Edgewater usually has 8 to 10 Bac tables in operation at the same time. Back-betting is permitted, and there are always open seats available.

My stategy uses selective betting -- I do not play every hand. So this give me the opportunity to stand and watch multiple shoes unfold simultaneously. This obviously cuts down on playing time.

Yes, I did play long hours over that four day period.

As I've mentioned, I'll be using holiday time to play a lot of Bac.

Great job. I hope your success continues.

Originally Posted by John1234

Great job. I hope your success continues.

Thanks!

Played again yesterday and immediately lost 8 units over the first four shoes. Recouped that loss and left +3 units by the end of the session.

I just can't see how one can be +103 units (that's the current total now) flat betting sixty shoes without there being a tremendous advantage.
Has it just been dumb luck?

I guess the definitive answer about my strategy's efficacy will come starting June 18th when I play 10 days straight.

Very exciting stuff, indeed.

i wish you great success.

peace

Hi 7,
No flat betting will take you that far i.e. winning 100++ units.
IMO, you need some sort of progression - maybe 1,2 kinda progression.
And for you to turn 1,500 into 15K, you need very very streaky shoes
in order to achieve that.
You will need lots of luck to be at the right table, right time to catch all those streaks. Good luck!

Originally Posted by sevenshooter

Thanks!

Played again yesterday and immediately lost 8 units over the first four shoes. Recouped that loss and left +3 units by the end of the session.

I just can't see how one can be +103 units (that's the current total now) flat betting sixty shoes without there being a tremendous advantage.
Has it just been dumb luck?

I guess the definitive answer about my strategy's efficacy will come starting June 18th when I play 10 days straight.

Very exciting stuff, indeed.

I have tested a variety of simple trend following systems over countless shoes on the computer, and about 3,000 from live play just going from first to last, flat betting with no porgressions or "triggers".
There were many instances of 50 or 60 shoes that were plus 100 units.
None of these was positive over a larger sample.

A couple that looked good were,1) bet bank until ppp, then switch to player until a bank appears, then go back to bank. Second method was the old 3 out of 5, ignoring ties, bet whichever side has come up at least three times in the last five hands.

Basically I was just trying to get an idea how trendy the game really was. Only conclusion was that bacarrat was deceptively trendy and need a very large sample. The live shoes were more trendy than the computer generated. Bacarrat was more promising than craps (random shooters).

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by hlkhoo

Hi 7,
No flat betting will take you that far i.e. winning 100++ units.
IMO, you need some sort of progression - maybe 1,2 kinda progression.
And for you to turn 1,500 into 15K, you need very very streaky shoes
in order to achieve that.
You will need lots of luck to be at the right table, right time to catch all those streaks. Good luck!

I am up +103 units flat betting. Was at +105 but had a losing session last night and dropped -2 units. I don't see anything wrong with a 1-2 progression, I just don't believe in pushing the prog any further than that.


Regards,

Sevenshooter

Seven,

There was a past user on this board named systemhunter, from Vancouver... you may want to check out his posts, from last year, about some of his observations in the casinos there.

Some thoughts here.

Everyone play progression. None believe in flat betting, except a handful. Why?

1. No one have great success with it so far.
2. Majority don't bet selectively. They bet once in 3-4 hands with no clear advantage.
3. Every 1 unit win is cancelled by 1 unit lost. Always seems not able to win.
4. It takes a lot of time to start moving up the winning ladder.

I can't stress how great flat betting is. Don't get me wrong, I do 1-2 progression at times as well. But, most of the times, flat bet is more than enough for me.

And it is possible to win over a long term using flat bet if you can bet selective, patience and discipline.


Seven, Good luck.

Hello Bryan thank you for your post..

you are absolutely right... people forget about any type of progressive?
why? easy.. i lost a lot of money with it.. and another reason?
it is very hard to catch up.. say you do 3 progressive, 1-2-4.. look how mnay units you lost here.. 7 units.. and you are using 7 units to 1... so this is what is gonna happen.. you try to recover 7 units loss meanwhile you can lose another 3 progressive then it will be over 10 units.. then you try to get 10 units back then you lose another 5 units.. and just can't win...... I wouldn't also say reverse progressive will win, but will lose less and I would rather play reverse if i havce choise....

well, yes I like flat bet more... it is so much easier to recover.....

my question is... do you think limit losing per month work?
say if you lose 5 units.. that month is over....
becuase i see this a lot in casino.. this person just lose this perticular month no matter what... but next month win crazy... i mean there is cycle... and i kind of belive this.. when you are unlucky it is better stay away.. better than making bigger hole......

thank you