Thread: 4 Column Occurance Stats for Ellis

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Exactly right John. And also you are right that the slight variance is mostly caused by the slight Bank edge and slightly by standard deviation.

I think the biggest advantage to knowing all this stuff is so you can identify when shoes are defying normal occurrence as well as when they are not.

Our SAP chart tells you exactly how each event stands relative to normal frequency at any point in the shoe.

Usually you are best off to bet that abnormal will get more abnormal. However once in a while the chart shows you that most everything is running close to normal. In those cases you are better off to bet on normal.

Its not hard to tell the difference with a little practice.

Hey, its better than nothing.

For instance you'll get very choppy shoes where you are best off to primarily single side bet on opposites because that is what the card prep produced.

But, on the other hand you can get shoes with relatively equal amounts of chop and streak. Back and forth. Here you are much better off to net bet opposites vs repeats.

But BOTH shoe types can easily be beat if you are alert to the difference.

Statictical analysis is a useful tool, but will always have the limitation of it being based on assumptions about what we expect to find in the data... (what if those assumptions are in error?)

If we just look at the data itself and test a few wagering strategies this would avoid limiting assumptions to some extent.

Based on the results posted a near zero expectation wager is (there maybe others I have not looked at all combinations):

PPP so bet B to win 2476 units - vig. 123.8 units = 2352.20 units
(PPP P losing 2353 units)

Net win = -0.8 units or -0.016%

The more data the more confident we can be that this is not just variance etc.


I think a good way to test data from shoes is to look at repeat patterns in the same shoe... for example: BPPPPB ... BPPPP so bet B

This may pick up any bias in shoe for certain patterns since it occured previously in that same shoe.