Thread: Longest streak, just to clear something up

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Good honest post John. I think the official record is 27 but I'm not sure of that because it happened at Turning Stone which was known at that time for cheating dealers. But I've seen and played many 25's and 26's.

It is extremly odd to see a shoe that defies the envelop of random math as much as yours but I had a casino shoe with only 6 Banks twice.

Those are very odd but nearly all shoes are a little odd. It's when you start getting them in a row that you know something is amiss.

In BJ Card counters like to brush off highs following highs too often as within the envelope of random chance. Very true but when it happens every shoe every table you KNOW something is amiss.

I personally have never seen streaks like these, however,
I did study actual hands grouped in samples of 5,000 decisions.
I did encounter one sample where the player showed a plus 5% win
rate. Quite a few with player showing a positive win.

I bring this up as further reason to play a trend following system of
some sort. I really believe the "bank only" players need to rethink what they are doing. Anyone who has looked at any card counting systems,
will tell you that the relative advantage of bank to player is constantly shifting. It may not be at a positive expectation, but the streak patterns will not look like random numbers would suggest.

In about 650 000 baccarat results excluding ties the highest player streak was "only" 20.

In that same data, there was an instance of more players than bankers in 10 000 continuous decisions.

Coupling together that 650 000 baccarat results, and over 1 million RNG baccarat results here are some stats for worse cases for player:

641 285 REAL DECISIONS

3 WINS 25 SPINS
6 WINS 40 SPINS
9 WINS 50 SPINS
17 WINS 75 SPINS
29 WINS 100 SPINS
47 WINS 150 SPINS
57 WINS 175 SPINS
67 WINS 200 SPINS


1 048 576 RNG DECISIONS

2 WINS 25 SPINS
7 WINS 40 SPINS
9 WINS 50 SPINS
18 WINS 75 SPINS
26 WINS 100 SPINS
47 WINS 150 SPINS
56 WINS 175 SPINS
65 WINS 200 SPINS

1 689 861 TOTAL DECISIONS

2 WINS 25 SPINS
6 WINS 40 SPINS
9 WINS 50 SPINS
17 WINS 75 SPINS
26 WINS 100 SPINS
47 WINS 150 SPINS
56 WINS 175 SPINS
65 WINS 200 SPINS

Can anyone devise a progression to beat ANY of those worst cases?

Originally Posted by Teo2

In about 650 000 baccarat results excluding ties the highest player streak was "only" 20.

In that same data, there was an instance of more players than bankers in 10 000 continuous decisions.

Coupling together that 650 000 baccarat results, and over 1 million RNG baccarat results here are some stats for worse cases for player:

641 285 REAL DECISIONS

3 WINS 25 SPINS
6 WINS 40 SPINS
9 WINS 50 SPINS
17 WINS 75 SPINS
29 WINS 100 SPINS
47 WINS 150 SPINS
57 WINS 175 SPINS
67 WINS 200 SPINS


1 048 576 RNG DECISIONS

2 WINS 25 SPINS
7 WINS 40 SPINS
9 WINS 50 SPINS
18 WINS 75 SPINS
26 WINS 100 SPINS
47 WINS 150 SPINS
56 WINS 175 SPINS
65 WINS 200 SPINS

1 689 861 TOTAL DECISIONS

2 WINS 25 SPINS
6 WINS 40 SPINS
9 WINS 50 SPINS
17 WINS 75 SPINS
26 WINS 100 SPINS
47 WINS 150 SPINS
56 WINS 175 SPINS
65 WINS 200 SPINS

Can anyone devise a progression to beat ANY of those worst cases?

No, not in the practical (brute-force) sense.

But your findings nicely mirror my own experiences "at the table", and from conversing with numerous dealers about their own experiences.



P.S. Special thanks to Teo, the Swami, and others for your endless help in testing-out the numerous systems for sale.

Originally Posted by garnabby

But your findings nicely mirror my own experiences "at the table", and from conversing with numerous dealers about their own experiences.

Yeah right. Methinks that would be the kitchen table.

AD

PS Quit groveling over at GG. It's embarassing. No matter how smarmy you try to be over there, none of those guys are going to give you a way to play. Go back to doing what you do best.

He should call them names???!

Originally Posted by ADulay

Yeah right. Methinks that would be the kitchen table.

AD

PS Quit groveling over at GG. It's embarassing. No matter how smarmy you try to be over there, none of those guys are going to give you a way to play. Go back to doing what you do best.

What, ADulay "methinks" now... what's that about?

And as usual, there "they" go again, lol.

Originally Posted by Ellis

He should call them names???!

Long as we know who "they" are.

Originally Posted by garnabby

What, ADulay "methinks" now... what's that about?

Garn,

For a college educated person, you seem kind of stupid.

"Methinks" is found in Ole English literature, generally before the 13th Century.

I'll just assume you've read "Hamlet" at one time in your past.

The common term today would be "it seems to me".

Now if one of these days you'll explain "youze" and "asfaras", I'm sure we'll all be one happy family.

Oh, how did you answer my little quiz. Did you win or lose your last five sessions? Oh that's right, you don't play baccarat.

Sorry, didn't mean to involve you in the discussion.

AD

Whatyatalkingabout? He just finished Peeing in Pop Bottles by I.P. Daily. Now he's advancing up to Jack and the Beanstalk.

Originally Posted by ADulay

Garn,

For a college educated person, you seem kind of stupid.

"Methinks" is found in Ole English literature, generally before the 13th Century.

I'll just assume you've read "Hamlet" at one time in your past.

The common term today would be "it seems to me".

Now if one of these days you'll explain "youze" and "asfaras", I'm sure we'll all be one happy family.

Oh, how did you answer my little quiz. Did you win or lose your last five sessions? Oh that's right, you don't play baccarat.

Sorry, didn't mean to involve you in the discussion.

AD

For an uneducated person... YOU ARE kind of stupid. (Can't believe you interpreted my reply that way, and went on to "clear that up" for everyone.

Next time you want make an 'accusation' like that, and over and over again, try "standing on your own two feet" for once... with some evidence/proof.

And no, you're still not "jerking" anyone around. (Those words are in the modern dictionaries... methinks.)

Originally Posted by Ellis

Whatyatalkingabout? He just finished Peeing in Pop Bottles by I.P. Daily. Now he's advancing up to Jack and the Beanstalk.

Things that bad, sillE... i'm overjoyed!

Originally Posted by garnabby

For an uneducated person... YOU ARE kind of stupid. (Can't believe you interpreted my reply that way, and went on to "clear that up" for everyone.

Next time you want make an 'accusation' like that, and over and over again, try "standing on your own two feet" for once... with some evidence/proof.

And no, you're still not "jerking" anyone around. (Those words are in the modern dictionaries... methinks.)

Garn,

Uneducated? Me? I think not. That would be only in your mind. I think I'll pass on uploading my degrees (plural) and driver's license like some people we know. You'll just have to take my word for it that somehow I made it through college and a 40 year career.

Uh, so are you going to answer the question or just babble on and on about whatever it is you're talking about now.

How did your last five baccarat shoes go?

Not the ones on the kitchen table, the ones with real money.

Oh, I forgot again, you don't play. You only come here to act like somebody.

Personally, I think you're doing a swell job of impressing the group. Your behavior is exemplary as is your skilled writing and mastery of the copy and paste technique to fill page after page with your name on it. (For the dullards among us, that was a facetious remark but you have to explain things like that to the G man.)

AD (I played bac today. Did you?)

Originally Posted by ADulay

Garn,

Uneducated? Me? I think not. That would be only in your mind. I think I'll pass on uploading my degrees (plural) and driver's license like some people we know. You'll just have to take my word for it that somehow I made it through college and a 40 year career.

Uh, so are you going to answer the question or just babble on and on about whatever it is you're talking about now.

How did your last five baccarat shoes go?

Not the ones on the kitchen table, the ones with real money.

Oh, I forgot again, you don't play. You only come here to act like somebody.

Personally, I think you're doing a swell job of impressing the group. Your behavior is exemplary as is your skilled writing and mastery of the copy and paste technique to fill page after page with your name on it. (For the dullards among us, that was a facetious remark but you have to explain things like that to the G man.)

AD (I played bac today. Did you?)

I don't think, i know... .

Originally Posted by garnabby

I don't think, i know... .

Once again, your reply makes no sense, answers no questions and adds zero to the conversation.

Let me ask again so you can avoid the question over and over.

How did you do on your last 5 shoes or sessions?

Oh yes, I'm stupid and I keep forgetting that you don't actually play baccarat. You just come in here and post up empty messages to impress yourself.

Once again, I find myself having to leave another conversation with the unanswered question.

AD (the thread is all yours.)

Originally Posted by ADulay

Once again, your reply makes no sense, answers no questions and adds zero to the conversation.

Let me ask again so you can avoid the question over and over.

How did you do on your last 5 shoes or sessions?

Oh yes, I'm stupid and I keep forgetting that you don't actually play baccarat. You just come in here and post up empty messages to impress yourself.

Once again, I find myself having to leave another conversation with the unanswered question.

AD (the thread is all yours.)

I don't think, i know... that ADulay "has too much time on his hands", driving the (old) Caddy to the next big $10 BTC-seminar, with the head clown in back watching the dvd-version of "Driving Miss Daisy".

ADulay, the (real) man, lol.

Forget it Garn, You lost. Everyone here with an once of sense knows that.

It was just the other night..a shoe (8 deck/autoshuffle) ended with 19 bankers in a row and if the 2nd shoe counts for whatever reason it(the banker) came out 5 more times in a row..playing live it seems pretty obvious to come along with shoes of around 10 to 12 in a row and the like with chops..at Avg. about once a week..only twice within the last six months i remember 15+ in a row (lucky to get 2-3 shoes in a nite).This can be as odd as seeing tnites roulette # 23 32 23 32 27 23 32 come up in a row. Chit happens..

For my data above, I should have mentioned that I took all the decisions as one continuous stream, without breaks in between shoes.

Originally Posted by Teo2

For my data above, I should have mentioned that I took all the decisions as one continuous stream, without breaks in between shoes.

This makes a big difference because in a casino you cannot have a 20 in a row in the first 19 or the last 19 hands of a shoe. In a 72 hand shoe your chance of a 20 ends at play 53. The Wizard did not calculate for this in his frequency of occurrence tables leaving a significant error.

Many players on my forum were playing in the late '80s and early '90's when 20 in a rows were a common occurrence. This should help prove to you that the cards are NOT random and never were.

Some Big Bac tables still today use a hand shuffle very similar to the shuffle used then. You cannot randomize 8 decks of cards in two or three shuffles. Not even close.

If the length of time the cards are washed makes no difference then why did Foxwood throw us out for timing the wash? And is this really cheating?

Seems that this thread is getting back on track. Good.

So far we have been talking about bank and player runs.
Has anyone looked at other definitions of streak?
Specifically, BPBP.... ie. best played as TBL or
BBPPBBPP ie. the terrible twos, best played opposite TBL.

Since reading about combining TBL and OTBL on this site (thank you Ellis) I have found this to be a generally superior trend following approach.
Curious what others see.

Johno,

That is the first thing I thought of when finding the 65 wins in 200 outcomes. Wasn't it Perkins labby?

Originally Posted by Profbac

Seems that this thread is getting back on track. Good.

So far we have been talking about bank and player runs.
Has anyone looked at other definitions of streak?
Specifically, BPBP.... ie. best played as TBL or
BBPPBBPP ie. the terrible twos, best played opposite TBL.

Since reading about combining TBL and OTBL on this site (thank you Ellis) I have found this to be a generally superior trend following approach.
Curious what others see.

Profbac, I find that ZZ runs PBPB occur at equal frequency with straight runs IF you count your ZZ runs correctly. For instance a BB P B P BB is a ZZ run of 5, not 4. Just as every straight run starts with an opposite, every ZZ run starts with a repeat.

That explains the old wives tale that ZZs are shorter than straight runs. How could they be when opposites and repeats occur with equal frequency.

I think you'll find the Wizard agrees with me. If you average his B and P run lengths they will equal his ZZ run lengths.

Another way to beat both straight and ZZ runs is to play AD (no relationship). AD = Across Down. Bet Across from your last bet after every repeat and Down from your last bet after every opposite with a 1,2 prog. If you get wrong footed on the TTs PPBBPPBB just switch one play. But, like TB4L it is not good to play by itself but usually better than TB4L because it gets on runs faster. Have fun!