Thread: When Player outperforms Banker by >100%

Wouldn't it make sense to flat bet Banker (esp. on No Commission Baccarat) when the tote board indicates a large disparity between Player and Banker -- eg. Player 24; Banker 10 ??

1.I think Ellis did some work on this.

2. Years ago I tried applying a traders tool called MACD on baccarat.
That stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence.
Applied to baccarat, you would do something like this.
Look back over the last 10 hands. Divide the number of banks by 10,
and the number of players by 10. You do this every hand and you have a simulated moving average of banks and players.
Next subtract one from the other. Say the moving average of banks minus the moving average of player. You are watching that number.
That is your moving average divergence. When that number reverses, ie more players than bank, or when that number starts to turn by a certain amount, you bet on the side that is improving.

As to your example, there may or may not be a catch up of bank to player, the Macd would tell you when it has begun.

I fooled around with this on the computer. It was interesting,
but a simple trend following system will get you to the same place without the brain damage.

BTW, I hope you are not refering to EZ Bac or commissionless bac the the dragon 7 as no bank commission. It is an imbedded commission, actually more costly than the traditional commission.

Yes 7 shooter it makes perfect sense. On the other hand, what John is saying is a complete contradiction of what he just finished saying on the color me thread. If history has no bearing, why play a "mixture"? Now THAT makes no sense at all. If history has no bearing, one prog type is just as good as any other. Anyone with any experience whatsoever KNOWS that just isn't so.

Keep thinking that way and playing that way John. I was playing this game successfully before you were born. You are the one who just doesn't get it and never will. You proved that with your color fiasco. The rest of your theories are equally ridiculous. Grow up.

All patterns of the same length occur at the same frequency. That rules out your column theory. It's just as ridiculous as your stupid color theory. Sure, some magic ferry taught you everything before I came along. How childish can you get? You are a complete waste of time. Don't mock age - You are mocking your future self. You'll learn that when you grow up.

Originally Posted by John

You're just playing semantics games Ellis (too much time on your hands, why not take that BMW for a spin instead of being logged in here 24/7).

From the above, one can deduce streaks of varying lengths, at a minimum repeaters. Any decent bet selection should be able to handle both chops, two's or greater. Git it.. Maybe you don't...

It's no point looking back, no logic in thinking about what has just happened thinking, oh I should have done this or I should have done that, any old tool can do that. Your bet selection needs to handle certain criteria from the onset. This should include streaks, it has to include streaks, it has to include chops.

Win against the chops, two's or repeating two series and all streaks within a given series of bets, it's not that hard to do... Git it.. I guess not.

Funny that Fast Ellis doesn't agree. This is essentially what Net Betting intends to do. The trick for this method is to guess when the shoe starts hitting 4's or more and either stop or switch to some streak method.

Problem is with any method that is not flat bet you got to get a lot more smaller unit wins to make up for that hit you take. If we are lucky we can use a bet method that may overcome one bad section but generally not two bad sections.

So if you are saying that there are bet placement series that do better than others I would agree. But the past doesn't help much. If it did we would all be playing strict mechanical and programmable bet methods.

A

Originally Posted by Ellis

Keep thinking that way and playing that way John. I was playing this game successfully before you were born. You are the one who just doesn't get it and never will. You proved that with your color fiasco. The rest of your theories are equally ridiculous. Grow up.

All patterns of the same length occur at the same frequency. That rules out your column theory. It's just as ridiculous as your stupid color theory. Sure, some magic ferry taught you everything before I came along. How childish can you get? You are a complete waste of time. Don't mock age - You are mocking your future self. You'll learn that when you grow up.

More Ellis classic responses!

No mocking age, huh? Okay - new rule - don't mock age! But he is only mocking his future self if he turns out to be a snake oil salesman!

But let's talk theory, Eddie! The frequency of patterns were well known far before you were even born old timer. That is what makes the game such a puzzle. If it weren't true the game wouldn't exist! We would just play the stuff that had greater frequency! Academic!

So what is your opinion of winning theory? Looking at past events and guessing they will repeat more then they don't - enough to gain an advantage? Also, using a bet method that enhances?

You often propose 2hi betting. (I am not knocking it, just thinking about it). Of course the advantage of 2 hi is that it takes much less 1 units to overcome the 2 unit losses, right? If we play 3 hi, for instance then we need to win more on the 1 units and 2 units to overcome. Agreed?

The only other way is to win more of the 2 hi bets then one would expect from a game which "All patterns of the same length occur at the same frequency." This is why we are back to being good guessers lacking a PREDICTABLE BIAS! Maybe there is one. Your belief as been stated by you many times on this forum is that like patterns follow like patterns more than one would randomly expect, yes?

OK - I will wait for your response to the above civil discussion.

Archer

P.S. John, no more mocking old people - I resemble that you young whippersnapper you!

Originally Posted by sevenshooter

Wouldn't it make sense to flat bet Banker (esp. on No Commission Baccarat) when the tote board indicates a large disparity between Player and Banker -- eg. Player 24; Banker 10 ??

I feel funny jumping into whatever fight is currently going on but here's my 2 cents worth....

I'm thinking it would depend on how the distribution of the hands came out. If they were something like 2,1,2,1,2,1,2,1 etc then jumping on the strong side with a small progression would make sense.

If you had something like 18,3,6,7 then you would need something that may run for two or three hands before making the switch to the other side.

So, my vote would probably be to jump on the Player and chase it until it says otherwise.

Hi Guys,

Some dominant shoes are completely dominant, whereas others may change sides, still others change sides and back again.

What winning strategies would you guys recommend on the above Dominant Shoes?

What would be a good system to monitor the dominating changes?

Best & Kind Regards,

JohnMalaysia

Originally Posted by John

Previous results have no bearing on future results, so in essence you missed the boat and are hoping their will be plently more boats to follow. Same applies to any other idea that involves looking back, i.e. track current or historic table bias, belongs in the realms of clap-trap. You should be able to take advantage of such situations from the on-set.

A simple bet selection such FTL (FLD) would have handled such an event, because the Player would have to at least been doubling. You have to play in advance and know what you will lose against irregardless of any change you have built around your bet selection.

John no disrespect but past results do indeed have bearing on future results. I do not know where you get this idea from. I could argue this point in terms of trends and in shoes trends happen always, one can see them coming and also future outcomes given just by looking at the numbers as the shoe progresses. For someone to say this shows me people such of a belief has no grasp of what baccarat is about. Seriously. And I consistently make myself happy at my results.

Originally Posted by bacplayer2010

John no disrespect but past results do indeed have bearing on future results. I do not know where you get this idea from. I could argue this point in terms of trends and in shoes trends happen always, one can see them coming and also future outcomes given just by looking at the numbers as the shoe progresses. For someone to say this shows me people such of a belief has no grasp of what baccarat is about. Seriously. And I consistently make myself happy at my results.

bacplayer2010, Can you be more specific what you mean and about "looking at the numbers."

A

Originally Posted by John

You know I have take such comments with a grain of salt. No disrespect what you take me for an idiot? What is coming next, win over the confidences of the readers, then comes some kind of sale pitch.

If trends continued I would literally clean up nite after nite. If any trend continued to even a minimum 4 or 5 hand sequence the game would be so easy. Alas it doesn't, trends fail more times that continue, both my testing and live table play prove this. I do wonder what your motive is, to post such a load of dribble. Yeah those natural eights and nine have so much influence on the next hand, even the insane can sometimes be delirious.

John I could clean up if i choose too everytime i play, but Im not greedy when I play, I set myself a limit on what I make so overconfidence doesnt do me in, I set so much i wanna make, that means even in the course of a player or bank run that runs for example 10 times ill walk away after winning say 4 hands. My motive for such statement is simple, I have read what you said and find you confusing players who wish to make a few extra dollars and so on, and not make it out as futile to win as u seem to think. It isnt. Far from it. Also naturals do tell you possible outcomes for later in the shoe, it all mathematics. For example my last session I hit 38 out of 47 hands. I like to point out in a shoe trends happen yes but the same trend doesnt happen throughout the entire shoe, it comes generally in two and three columns and then goes, then a new one begins. your job is to figure out what the trend is and then be able to profit from knowing the trend until it ceases. SO in essence, given one shoe you get approximately 8 to 10 trends per bank and player given what I have seen.

Originally Posted by John

You know I have take such comments with a grain of salt. No disrespect what you take me for an idiot? What is coming next, win over the confidences of the readers, then comes some kind of sale pitch.

The only thing I sell is to myself, whether the next bet is worth $100 for a test bet to see where it is going or to confirm my suspicions or $1000 dollars for a positive outcome to enrich myself for the next car payment lol.

I realise not everyone has a huge bankroll but thats the beauty of this game. Given time one can and will build their bankroll. It is amazing to think, cause someone can make a go of the game you think they are trying to sell a system. Let me tell you something, after playing the game for over 15 years, there ISNT one system that will work consistently, one has to have different strategies as the shoe continues to reveal itself. And as it unfolds one will work out better then the others. It is warfare at its finest! You do not go into battle with just one plan, you always have backup plans or strategies.

Originally Posted by Archer

bacplayer2010, Can you be more specific what you mean and about "looking at the numbers."

A

Ok when one looks at the numbers, on times they can be very tricky but one has to look at the numbers of the specific shoe to see what is happening, for instance, naturals when they occur, does the bank/player stick to continue to run or do they chop when it occurs, or does the numbers for a bank run, do they steadiy decline or increase, and what has happened before when say same numbers come up etc...i know sounds confusing but when one gets the idea it becomes clearer. Or if a certain outcomes happens say 6-3 for bank, if a 6-3 occurs again for bank dores the bank stay or chop or does it chop one time n stay the next time etc. Also non naturals will tell give you an indication of possible outcomes later on in the shoe given the cards gone etc. And i am not talking of card ounting either. Pretty hard to card count in this gamne anyway.

One must rememeber one dosnt get all the outcomes correct.

Originally Posted by JohnMalaysia

Hi Guys,

Some dominant shoes are completely dominant, whereas others may change sides, still others change sides and back again.

What winning strategies would you guys recommend on the above Dominant Shoes?

What would be a good system to monitor the dominating changes?

Best & Kind Regards,

JohnMalaysia

John, things have been hectic here and I forgot to register you at BTC. I'll do that tomorrow. When you get in, take a look at SAP charting. It is a very simple scorecard procedure. We even have scorecards pre set up for this simple process. The value is that it very clearly defines trends. Just as you say, some shoes have strong trends, some weak and some none at all. It's a purely mechanical tracking process easy to perform at casino speed and points out trends your eye might not catch. Even a total lack of trends can be useful information. We use SAP to define what system to play in virtually any shoe. SAP charting can benefit any system.

I consider a total lack of trend as a trend in itself. Such shoes are often ripe for net betting which doesn't like trends.

Consider this. You ALWAYS know how you could have beat a shoe after its over. SAP alerts you to the best mode of play DURING the shoe when it can do you some good. We use it in conjuction with all systems. It takes the guess work out of the equation. It's a great tool and certainly part of the reason our players do so well.

See you at BTC and welcome aboard!

Bacplayer, I think you would get value from SAP charting also since you have already caught on to the value of trending. It gives you a precise picture of any shoe from a trend standpoint. It tells you instantly, at any point in the shoe, what is happening more than normal and what is happening less that normal and exactly to what degree.

To answer a previous question somebody had, John I think: Why do the strongest trends continue more often than they dissipate? Why is completely unimportant and beside the point. It is the fact of it that makes you money not the why. Play what IS.

I don't know for sure but I think it is due to the fact that shuffling is not perfect either by hand or by machine. Computer scientists clearly demonstrated that it takes AT LEAST 7 shuffles to randomize a single deck of cards. 8 decks is not 56 shuffles. It's 7 to the 8th power. We would be sitting there all day watching them shuffle and never get to play. Machines duplicate hand shuffling. Casinos consider that 3 shuffles randomize 8 decks. Not even close.

You can clearly demonstrate this to yourself by watching a mature 8 deck BJ game. You can quickly see that highs follow highs and lows follow lows far more often than they randomly should. Not even close. BJ uses the same hand shuffles and shuffle machines as Bac. A simple fast way to do this is count A-6 as low, 7 neutral and 8-K high.

Yeah, 8s and 9s are high. If you doubled down on 11 and drew an 8 would you give it back?

Originally Posted by JohnMalaysia

Hi Guys,

What winning strategies would you guys recommend on the above Dominant Shoes?

John, if you are talking Player or Bank domination perhaps the best system to play is F2. (Follow the 2) You simply bet on the side that had the most recent 2 in a row. But once on a side stay there for a min of 3 bets so you beat the TTs (BB PP BB PP) your losing pattern is a two on the other side followed by a 3. You can expect the 2,3 pattern once per shoe but it has to start on the wrong side to do you any harm. This is quite rare in a truely dominant shoe. But you kill the sporadic 1's which are very common in dominant shoes. You can play a simple 123 prog or even 1,1.5,2. If you are seeing long straight runs as is often the case with dominant shoes, follow ALL 1 bets with 2, win or lose the 1. We call that M2 or Mandatory 2.

Now, who was it that said I never post systems? I post more systems on this forum than anyone. BTW, the guy who said that has never posted a single system. I don't think he knows any.

I have no idea of why anything I said would remind you of that, do you?

I recommended F2 only for dominant shoes. F2 exploits that particular trend. But you don't believe in trends. Therefore you can't win no matter what you do.

Martingales? Geez, I recommended a 123 prog. That's almost as far as you can get from a Martingale. What are you jibbering about? Do you have any idea? Just making stuff up as you go?

OK JohnMalaysia. You are in BTC Private Forum. Have fun. You will find every single member a positive thinker and all with complete respect for all others. Many, many winning players - some for 20 years. Your highly mature and respectful personality and obvious upbringing will immediately put you in very good stead with the other members and I'm sure you'll feel right at home. We'll make a fellow winner out of you in short order. Welcome to the group.

Originally Posted by bacplayer2010

Ok when one looks at the numbers, on times they can be very tricky but one has to look at the numbers of the specific shoe to see what is happening, for instance, naturals when they occur, does the bank/player stick to continue to run or do they chop when it occurs, or does the numbers for a bank run, do they steadiy decline or increase, and what has happened before when say same numbers come up etc...i know sounds confusing but when one gets the idea it becomes clearer. Or if a certain outcomes happens say 6-3 for bank, if a 6-3 occurs again for bank dores the bank stay or chop or does it chop one time n stay the next time etc. Also non naturals will tell give you an indication of possible outcomes later on in the shoe given the cards gone etc. And i am not talking of card ounting either. Pretty hard to card count in this gamne anyway.

One must rememeber one dosnt get all the outcomes correct.

What you say is very similar to what I am playing, especially on the banker decline or increase, number outcome which lead to stay or chop.

The only thing I don't agree is the card counting. It do works.

Originally Posted by Bryan

The only thing I don't agree is the card counting. It do works.

just cause I dont know how to card count doesnt mean it cant be done, lol , I suppose it would help towards end of shoe to make more precise bets once u have an idea of what cards are left an possible outcomes, usually towards end is when I lose money, im good til about 48 hands or so, thats when i make my money.

Originally Posted by bacplayer2010

just cause I dont know how to card count doesnt mean it cant be done, lol , I suppose it would help towards end of shoe to make more precise bets once u have an idea of what cards are left an possible outcomes, usually towards end is when I lose money, im good til about 48 hands or so, thats when i make my money.

Yes, towards end of shoe, if you know what cards left in the shoes, it can help toward making some decision. I know how it works and I don't see the need to prove anything. If anyone think that it don't work, then it is okay with me as well.

Originally Posted by Bryan

Yes, towards end of shoe, if you know what cards left in the shoes, it can help toward making some decision. I know how it works and I don't see the need to prove anything. If anyone think that it don't work, then it is okay with me as well.

I suppose you are right. IF there is an extreme dearth of certain cards. The tie bet can certaiinly become more likely if certain cards are gone. But either P or B becoming more likely? Since it is the card ORDER that decides the outcome rather than the cards REMAINING it seems there would not be much advantage.

Perhaps you could explain or give an example as to certain outcomes dependent upon remaining cards?

Archer

Originally Posted by Ellis

John, if you are talking Player or Bank domination perhaps the best system to play is F2. (Follow the 2) You simply bet on the side that had the most recent 2 in a row. But once on a side stay there for a min of 3 bets so you beat the TTs (BB PP BB PP) your losing pattern is a two on the other side followed by a 3. You can expect the 2,3 pattern once per shoe but it has to start on the wrong side to do you any harm. This is quite rare in a truely dominant shoe. But you kill the sporadic 1's which are very common in dominant shoes. You can play a simple 123 prog or even 1,1.5,2. If you are seeing long straight runs as is often the case with dominant shoes, follow ALL 1 bets with 2, win or lose the 1. We call that M2 or Mandatory 2.

Now, who was it that said I never post systems? I post more systems on this forum than anyone. BTW, the guy who said that has never posted a single system. I don't think he knows any.

LOL - you call that a "system?" I thought you didn't sell systems - just methods. The above is like "dialing for dollars." The barker cries, "Pick a card, any card!" So how many systems do you have? Use SAP to count the runs so you can decide which of the 6 systems to play? I thought you had to select the table - what happened to all that stuff? You abandoned that now? Not conveneient, huh?

A

My Dearest Uncle Ellis,

You are so polite, thoughtful, understanding, caring and loving towards baccarat players world-wide. Indeed, you are the ‘Jesus’ and father of world-wide baccarat players.

I have a quick glance at your BTC as one of your newest private member, all I can say is 'It is looking real good with forums of baccarat basics and winning strategies for baccarat players world-wide'. I hope I can learn the winning strategies and start winning my lost savings in the casino and you would be my personal savior in Baccarat for sure!

You are the greatest blessings to this forum as I have learned a lot just by reading your countless contributions. Now, I finally join your BTC and thanks to Mike for being so democratic as well as your presence here, without which I might never have known BTC.

You are very welcome to this forum and for those who do not like you, I would urge them to stop bashing and slandering you as you have every right to be here with Mike’s permission. Hopefully, one day your love for them would touch them and convert them to be your followers just like Jesus did! Sorry, guys, we must operate from love and not laws!!!

I am glad you care to help and take on my quest to find out the best winning systems to apply in the beginning of a shoe that we predict may be dominant with 2/3 chance yet it may turn otherwise with 1/3 chance. I think only high caliber person like yourself can help…..

For Example:

If a shoe begins with dominant setting as follows and we predict that it has a 2/3 chance of banker dominant towards the end as follows:

BBBPBBBPB

What would be the best winning systems to apply throughout the shoe in the above pre assume 2/3 chance of would be banker dominant shoe, taking care of the possibility that it may be 1/3 chance of being player dominant or close disparity towards the end.

Now, my own winning system would be just bet on Banker till 2 loses and change side to bet on player till 1 loss and carry on this way except when the player becomes dominant, we simply do likewise by switching sides. When disparity becomes close, we simply bet each side 1 time till loss.

Uncle Ellis, what do you think, how can I integrate your F2 into my system if mine is of any good?

Help me to understand your F2 as follows:
BBBPBBBPBBPBBBBPBBPP
Now with F2, simply bet the most current 2’s with 3 bets, thus
Bet bbb on above? Right? What about F3?

Uncle Ellis, what would be the ultimate winning systems to apply from the beginning shoe and throughout the pre assume would be 2/3 banker dominant shoe yet it may be 1/3 chance of otherwise? Is it combining my winning system with your F2 or any other better systems?

With much appreciations and looking forwards to the your brilliant and effective winning systems.

God bless you with the best of health, longevity, prosperity, happiness, etc. May all your prayers be answered! Hope to meet Keith and you in Malaysia as soon as possible.

With lots of love and respect,
JohnMalaysia

If any man shall say unto you,Lo,here is Christ,or there:believe him not.
For in those days there shall also arise false Christs, and false prophets,and show great signs and wonders: insomuch, that if possible, they deceive the very elect. MARK 13 vs24,25.
Johnny M.. do not feel guilty that u got a free lifetime membership above all paying and contributing members within his forum...This is ur calling to share to all other poor brothers and sisters in christ.
P.S. Remember.. But love your enemies,and do good, and LEND,hoping for nothing again: and your reward shall be great:and ye shall be the children of the Highest: for he is kind unto the unthankful,and to the evil...Luke 6 vs35.
Welp off to the casino..Best of luck guys ...learned alot here this week....thanks

Hi sevenshooter..usually a large gap between banker and player.. pretty much means a long streak occured..and if the streak was 10 plus or more favoring one side.. its often difficult for the ultimate catch up in that shoe. i.e...a recent shoe..P=43 and B=29..

Originally Posted by pitty1

If any man shall say unto you,Lo,here is Christ,or there:believe him not.
For in those days there shall also arise false Christs, and false prophets,and show great signs and wonders: insomuch, that if possible, they deceive the very elect. MARK 13 vs24,25.
Johnny M.. do not feel guilty that u got a free lifetime membership above all paying and contributing members within his forum...This is ur calling to share to all other poor brothers and sisters in christ.
P.S. Remember.. But love your enemies,and do good, and LEND,hoping for nothing again: and your reward shall be great:and ye shall be the children of the Highest: for he is kind unto the unthankful,and to the evil...Luke 6 vs35.
Welp off to the casino..Best of luck guys ...learned alot here this week....thanks

Amen

Originally Posted by pitty1

usually a large gap between banker and player.. pretty much means a long streak occured..and if the streak was 10 plus or more favoring one side.. its often difficult for the ultimate catch up in that shoe. i.e...a recent shoe..P=43 and B=29..

Had one like that this afternoon at BPH.

Player 42, Bank 25.

A very nice shoe for me at least!

Originally Posted by John

BBB
BPB (sequence B continuance)
BBP
PBB
PBP (sequence A continuance)
PPB
BPP
PPP

When I was working on SAME [S] and DIFFERENT [D] - with reference to the newest 3-streak to the last 3-streak - I was able to see "streaks" much easier - so to speak.

BPB
BBP - SDD
PBB - DSD
PBP - SSD
PPB - SDD
BPP - DSD
PPP - DSS

Here we see things - perhaps - differently - pardon the pun.

Originally Posted by sevenshooter

Wouldn't it make sense to flat bet Banker (esp. on No Commission Baccarat) when the tote board indicates a large disparity between Player and Banker -- eg. Player 24; Banker 10 ??

Standard Deviation is interesting. It is rare for something to be outside the 2nd standard - thus into the 3rd standard deviation - for long.

As occurences increase, the standard deviation takes more events to change.

You could keep a standard deviation count indefinitely - shoe after shoe after shoe.

You MAY find something doing this.
You wouldn't necessarily have to calculate the SD throughout your observations.
You could write down standard deviation calculations from - say 20 occurences to 500 occurences - you don't need every single total's SD - and use this sheet any time you wish.

An example after 20 events of P & B - assuming both have a 50/50 chance - close enough - the SD is 2.24.

68.2% of the time we expect P and B to have 8 to 12 successes each
95.4% of the time we expect P and B to have 6 to 14 successes each
99.7% of the time we expect P and B to have 4 to 16 successes each

If we were to see 1,2,3,4 or 5 successes - only - of either, we MAY expect that there will be a shift - over a relatively short time - to more occurences of that decision.

After 30 events of P & B we have a SD of 2.74 - meaning:
68.2% of the time we expect P and B to have 12 - 18 successes each
95.4% of the time we expect P and B to have 9 - 21 successes each
99.7% of the time we expect P and B to have 6 - 24 success each

We may wish to investigate if the event which had 5 or fewer success after 20 events would move into the 2nd SD and appear at least 4 or more times in the next 10 trials.

I honestly don't know if this is worth investigating, but it looks interesting.