[moved]
[moved]
Last edited by John; 07-22-2010 at 05:54 AM.
John many, many systems have been developed that basically bet that all trends will return to normal within the context of each shoe. These systems didn't just fail, they failed spectacularly. So spectacularly that you did very well to bet dead against them. Its a very common strategy to bet against trends; to bet ON normal occurence. Such systems are so common they single handedly increased casino profits in Baccarat from 3% of the drop in the late 90's to 26% today. Most players start off with the same beliefs you have - that all is random. That is precisely why they lose so miserably. I'm not ripping off players but you ARE by continuouly preaching stuff that just isn't true and in fact backwards from proven succesful play methods. You need to wake up and smell the coffee and start giving players GOOD advice rather than tell people what you THINK is right. The game isn't about what you think. It's about what IS.
If you go through all the threads on this forum you'll see that the most successful systems posted are follow the shoe type systems rather than normal occurrence systems. The same is true on all Baccarat Forums including mine.
I once posted a Normal Occurrence system called the Asian system many years ago. I had to retract that system and tell players they were MUCH better off to bet dead against it. Very embarrassing. I'll never make that mistake again. Neither should you. Friendly advice.
Last edited by Ellis; 04-22-2010 at 07:14 AM.
ripping off follow players,
Is it that you are stupid? Is it, though? Are you a fucking JAP?
Is it that you are a JAP? Is it, though!?
not making the money you planned? How about you save up and go to a real casino.
Oh... you got me on "upset" I admit that!
I HATE, with full-force, JAPS!
Wikipedia article traffic statistics
Above is me!
Who THE FUCK are you?!
I am ALSO this.
Who THE FUCK are you?!
who might get thier hands on it, they might even start distributing it for nothing
LMAO!
Do the WORLD A favour! Stand still while The Doolittle Raid comes down on you, you JAP piece of shite!
Ellis, unfortunately, you can't expect everyone to understand.
I try to explain to players when I sit down at the table, that just accept the "randomness" of the game, or worse, players that use systems with a set combination of rules, or "triggers". Especially when they are winning. You can't tell them anything during that time. They just will not listen.
There just has to be a separation I suppose ellis. There just HAS to be gamblers and professional baccarat players. That has to be accepted.
BUT, we can keep trying to lead fellow potential professional players on the right path. Don't expect them all to follow though. No matter what.
John, I wouldn't base any selection of bets on any "triggers" or anything that is something you would do one shoe and the next. That is what ellis is trying to say. Seriously, let the shoe itself decide how you bet. Not your rules or triggers.
Your statements about baccarat not being a game that offers any advantage in following any 'trend'? That's pretty false. Doing something in shoe 3, that you did in shoe 1, is not an advantage play. But, doing what shoe 3 shows should be done, and doing what shoe 1 shows should be done, is advantage play. The game offers an advantage, I don't see how that's not obvious. The game is not a random draw of 3 cards, until the winner occurs. No. There's rules. Counts. Stands. Shuffle flaws. ANYTHING, that makes this game force trends and advantages to occur in every shoe. I'm not saying you will win every shoe, but you absolutely CAN. And it is done. All the time. Who cares what the "math" saids. THIS game is not flip of a coin, roll the dice random. Not at all.
We don't have an imagination for nothing. Use it!!
Last edited by Thegoal; 04-22-2010 at 09:30 AM.
The Goal, Unforunately I suspect you are exactly right. Well said. Many people believed the Earth to be flat long after it was proven round. Some still do.
Why don't you lend your Dad some money so he can move out of Arkansas and won't have to keep selling "subscriptions" for 50 bucks? Or are "YOUR" subscriptions doing poorly and you can't afford it. A chip off the OLD SCAMMER BLOCK!!!! LMAO (Love your marketing!)
Archer >>>-----------------------> Boing!
I am a little dumb I guess! It took me awhile but I get IT!
The Goal, who first came on like this newbie looking to find deep pockets to help him win more money but now is winning 1k a day and doesn't need anyone all of a sudden! Perfect! This guy is an Ellis BTC guy! He is an Ellis set up! It is now pretty obvious after reading his posts. Example:
The Goal just wrote: "BUT, we can keep trying to lead fellow potential professional players on the right path. Don't expect them all to follow though. No matter what."
Haahahah! BUSTED!!!!!!!!All of a sudden he is a professional player? And "we" (he and Ellis) are trying to lead players down the right path! Ellis supposedly doesn't know his system! pffffff!
Hey Dude, like I PM'd you. I know a lot of players with VERY deep pockets. You want to meet me at Foxwoods, prove your system out (you tested it with over 3000 shoes remember, Dude?). 1k a day? Screw that! How about 10k a day - 20k a day? you think the casino will get angry! LMAO - We will go to Vegas, Dude, Atlantic City where they can't stop you! Monte Carlo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ellllllllllis - you sneaky snakey guy you! LMAO
A
I just can't stand it anymore. Guys like Archer who are internet tough guys, in real life, would piss their shorts if they had to answer to anyone out in the real world.
I have a question. Why is Archer such an asshole? Did your Mommy not breast feed you when you were young? Maybe you secretly look at naked young boys on the internet late at night once your wife has gone to bed....whatever the reason its really getting old. You are a one note one hit wonder who doesn't contribute anything here. So do the board a favor and STFU![]()
Really? LOL Excellent Baccarat post from one of Ellis' clones. Were you at that Foxwood "exhibit?" (ahem) Why don't you tell your "Uncle" to back up his bullshit with some facts and shut me up? Foxwood "gallery" watching Ellis play - LMAO! I have played over 800 shoes in the real world at Foxwoods.
Hey Dude, why is Ellis here? He has his own board with 4000 members (crock of shit). He is here to sell stuff like SAP - count the 2's verse 3's verse 4's and if you see a lot of 2's then do this, if you see more 4's then 3's then do this and play this progression or if that doesn't work stop and wait for the zig zag to end and . . . .pure crap!!!!!
It's getting tough for Ellis in here, huh? Everybody is finally realizing that Ellis is a well known con man that has been around for years selling seminars, bogus systems (sorry - methods), and now subscriptions for 50 bucks. Don't forget, used to be $500 soon to go to $1,000 (remember) and now $50 Hahahahahahahh! Pathetic.
But thanks for the input - XXOO - Archer
First of all Ellis, I don't think John is betting that "all trends will return to normal within the context of each shoe." So, huh?
Second, you recently said that no one on this forum was using a trend based system - now you say just the opposite. Make up your mind.
Ellis says, "Such systems are so common they single handedly increased casino profits in Baccarat from 3% of the drop in the late 90's to 26% today." How in the world can you or anyone else back up this OUTRAGEOUS statement? Yet you are not embarrassed now! Amazing!
I guess making statemenets that can't be proven one way or the other is a pretty slick tactic!
Another one for the Ellis "Bullshit FAQ." INcredible.
Archer
I'm the "Set Up," you fucking idiot!
Anyroadup...we have 37 Storm Cells coming in...I "hope" it will be BIBLICAL!
Now, I have to quick build a wooden cover for my Dad's BMW!
Mark Ellis Ripple
I'll shut ya up, Huckleberry.
Yeah. He's a con-man who cooks dinner EVERY night and buys BMW's for "fun!"
YOU should get into marketing because you understand the difference between 'systems' and 'methods.'
He shrugs his shoulders when it gets "tough" in here, wherever "here" is. This gets 10% of the traffic that Beat The Casino gets!
There ARE over 2000 members.
I am largely responsible for that membership. SAP works!
I'll personally back SAP up and shut YOU up with MY phone number. PM me. C'mon!
I'm glad you have the ability to "understand." Now, Understand this: You are a piece of shit poster on a piece of shite site! I put MY name out here, and you HIDE behind a nick. YOU are a desperate LOSER. You come in "here" and whine because you would not know the game of baccarat if it bit you on the hand.
IF you have the balls (and money) to actually GO to Foxwood, I will meet you there.
It's a challenge and a threat.
Mark Ellis Ripple
Hi john,thanks for testing exercise..Did rather well tnite..kinda unexpected but hey i'll take it...8 deck auto shuffle
BPBP
BPBP
PPPP
BPBP
PPBP
BPPP
BBBP
BBBP
PBBP
BBPB
PPPP
BPBB
BPBP
BBBB
PPPB
PPPB
BBPP
BPBB
on another note ..I hope this ripple guy means an internet jargon rather than a worn out derogatory bigot punk slang he probably learned from his dad.If so.. not only offends great people.. but me as well.. and if only i can have 15 sec,.. i know i can shove a bottle of hennesy up his arse..o yea "3 HI" sucks...and so does horseracing..
Umm...Archer...no where did I state in any post of mine that I don't need anyone anymore. I am already hooking up with people on this forum who pmed me.
YOU just weren't chosen. No offense. It's nothing personal. Really.
And trust me, you won't be able to make 10-20k a day, just out in the open, for too long. That simple knowledge there, separates the professional players from the "newbies". Plus...I never came to this forum with a "newbie" aura. I even stated I've been playing this game for a long time, before developing the method I use now. So, that means, lots of time AND money was used to come to my end conclusion.
And if you think Ellis and I have some sort of outside connection with each other, simply because I agreed with him? .....I wouldn't even know how to argue that with you, honestly. Must mean anyone who agrees with anyone here, is connected with them outside of the forum. When I said we (which you of course would assume I meant ellis and myself), I meant any players who try to turn people away from using standard systems and "do this every time this happens" playing methods. They just do NOT work.
Last edited by Thegoal; 04-23-2010 at 10:44 AM.
John, I agree about betting the trend. To just straight up, blindly, follow the shoe/trend, is just as suicidal as a system with a standard set of rules. My method is geared towards watching the cards tell what the shoe is doing. The rules of the game create advantage bets. There's no argument about it. It reverses the randomness of the game. Forces certain repeat history, within that specific shoe and that specific shoes environment.
If I'm wrong? My method will start losing. But I'm not. This isn't a pitch, but, an eye opener. I wouldn't sell my system unless someone offered me a five figure sum! lol (I know that would never happen, so that's the point, lol...I don't need that much money anyway)
Last edited by Thegoal; 04-23-2010 at 10:45 AM.
John, if you bet a 3 bet prog, in random cards. no matter the pattern of your bets, in the long run you will lose that prog exactly often enough to break even. But you still owe commission. That is exactly what random means. You keep proving that.
Your only hope is to bet on what is happening the most and against what is happening the least in the shoe you are playing right now.
If the cards were, in fact, random, casino profits would be reduced to commission. Casinos couldn't afford to deal the game. But at 26% of the drop, casino profits are many times commission making Baccarat the MOST profitable table game in the casino for the casino. BJ is at 15%.
But if BJ were random Basic Strategy would win every table, but it doesn't. It loses. It loses because the cards aren't random. This is very easy to prove. You need to get off that random kick you are on. How the hell can a casino make 416 cards random in 3 shuffles. They can't, nor do they want to. In the US there is one Bac player for every 100 BJ players. Casinos can't afford random cards. They never were random and never will be. Casinos just aren't that stupid.
WARNING TO ALL WHO FOLLOW THIS GUY. READ MY THREAD. THIS GUY IS AS SHADY AS THEY COME AND HAS MORE STORIES THAN DR. SEUSS EVER DREAMNT OF!
Why does he need partners if he has so much money? THINK ABOUT IT. IF HE HAS A SYSTEM HE NEEDS NO ONE!! THERE ARE THOUSANDS, LET ME REPEAT THOUSANDS OF CASINOS ACROSS THE USA, HE COULD TRAVEL TO EVERY SINGLE ONE IN A FEW YEARS TIMES AND BE A MILLIONAIRE MANY, MANY TIMES OVER.
HES A SHISTER AND ASKED ME FOR 10K WITHOUT KNOWING ME!
RUN AND RUN FAST AND NEVER LOOK BACK!
How could anything that does work be considered meaningless? If a system gets exposed and fails against certain patterns, it's only a matter of time before that specific pattern happens so often, the system goes bust. Especially if it's a high step progression system. Best to have a system versatile enough to suite the nature of each and every pattern and shoe.
You guys make me laugh, there isnt one system that will beat the game, one has to have several strategies to implement during the progression of the shoe, as it unfolds, that is obvious, as you have patterns and streaks occurring and chops, you just have to pick your moments when you feel your on is all, yes ... he calls them triggers then you go for it. It isnt rocket science, it is alot easier then you may think. Once you let go the fear of losing a few hands, but react without anger and maintain your cool and you cant be beaten. Case in point, this past weekend i went down three times a fair bit of money and each time was able to get it back plus profit, in the same shoe , just picking your moments is all.
Last edited by bacplayer2010; 04-29-2010 at 04:46 AM.
Absolutely! Ellis' repeated statements that Basic Strategy in BJ was supposed to ahve positive EV against the game (random or not) either shows his total ignorance or desire for deception.
IMO this is exactly the core of the matter. It may be feasible to define the "nemesis," calculate it's ocurrence and design a bet ratio (recovery) to overcome such ocurrences.Designing approaches like this are not that hard to construct, however you have to factor for how bets are you willing to tolerate losing to the build up to the nemesis pattern to decided to play against happening and of course recovery .
What is laughable Bac2010 is your comment "you just have to pick your moments when you feel your on is all,". . . It is all well and good to promote this kind of "intuiton" as the avenue to successful gambliing but please call it what it is. Jumping from one method to another is simply guessing unless there is specific criteria to make the jump. In which case that can be throroughly tested.
Archer
Archer
Last edited by Archer; 04-29-2010 at 01:43 PM.
Thats what i love about this game..it's up yo u to win or lose..the freedom to place a Banker or Player bet at that moment of time..the flood of the best and worst decisions u ever made.. flash thoughts like staring into the grim reapers eyes.U win...good on u ...u lose..u only beat yourself because u could of easily placed ur bet on the winning hand based on whatever the impulse u chose..This is the only game that gives u a fair chance to beat yourself.Don't be too hard on yourself...u gave it ur best shot.. I still can't figure this out... if i made four 250.00 bets and lost em..what the hell did the 5% vig. have anything to do with it? about as a realistic to those 98% slot payouts they paste all over the casino walls.
Last edited by pitty1; 04-30-2010 at 05:20 PM. Reason: good luck to yall this weekend.
Pitty, that's about the best explanation for the popularity of Baccarat I've ever seen. Who'd have ever thought that essentially a coin flip game would ever gain such popularity. Yet, except in the US, Bac is the most popular casino game by a mile. And it's making huge inroads in the US.
I also like your attitude toward vig. Many try to incorporate vig into the solution of the game. I don't see where vig makes any more difference than the tips you pay the waitress. Why not include those too? It makes as much sense. You could eliminate vig altogether, as Horseshoe did, and it wouldn't change a thing. I've never seen a winning system that was based on vig.
John, I was particularly interested in your three comments where you mentioned your reliance on (and preference for) "pattern capturing."
John wrote: You can easily pre-determine what your weakness will be (pattern capturing) and you hope you can avoid it long enough to make some money and cash in. And to think there are some who try and make money by telling you the opposite of what is clearly demonstrated by maths, basic logic and common sense.John wrote: Nothing I post above has anything to do with betting normal occurrence, rather it's all about pattern capturing techniques,I recall some posts on this "capturing" methodology several years back (you mentioned "the old vip site" and there were others ). I remember quite a bit of discussion which included several "experts" making derisive comments at the time about "capturing." But, reading your endorsement of the method now would lead one to think that perhaps there was some truth in those old postings and that you might have learned some things from them. Did you happen to make any copies of any of those old "pattern capturing" postings? I think those might make for some very interesting reading. Unfortunately, VIP is gone and GG now gets a warning from Google that it is dangerous for loading malware automatically, so now there's no way to search for them.John wrote: Myself, I prefer "pattern capturing", I win against everything except xxx whatever xxx will be, then I look at reducing the instances of xxx. However in this game, there will always be a weakness in whatever bet selection you design, limiting the occurrence of that weakness should be your goal.
So, if you made any copies of any of those, now historical "capture" posts, some reposting would be appreciated. I too have done some successful experimentation with some capturing approaches. Reading those posts again from long ago might provide some clues, which I missed the first time, to perfecting this technique.
In the long run, all patterns the same length occur at the same frequency. That is a simple mathematical fact, not an opinion. No amount of intelligence can get around that simple fact. But stupidity THINKS it can.
Some chinese dude once said"events have an end and a beginning,know what is first and last,then be near the way".U see it all the time..battling a shoe.. running streaks of 2's,3's1's,chop this away and that way..before u know.. generally most of the time the shoe pretty evens out P's and B's by the last hand...wtf...
Thanks for your answer... some of it was confusing, but I did like this part of your post (especially the last sentence):
You might get something depending on how far you are able to take the concept I suggest giving up on the OLD approach, there are mechanical approaches that handle both choppy, streaky and those somewhere in the middle" portions of shoes. The key is not so much bet selection, everything and anything can and will lose, rather the concept of MM.
Last edited by samredman; 08-28-2010 at 08:47 AM.
Bookmarks