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Thread: My Betting Strategy

  1. #1
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default My Betting Strategy

    I play baccarat full time since my late 20 and for the past 15 years, I have came across many different types of system and strategy. No one single system can win the shoes and baccarat. You probably knew it as well, but, just keep searching hoping that you are wrong.

    Earlier, I read about the system testing thread by a fellow player and though I admire and appreciate the effort made, I have to say that that is still a pipe dream.

    Okay, you test a system over a millions play and let's say you get a majority win of over 50%. So what? That will never translate into 50% of winning chances you have in the casino. Why? Because there is still many other factors that can affect you. A simple scenario, let's say you bet 1,2,4,8,16 units kinds of progression. In computer simulation, it is dumb and it will keep to 1,2,4,8,16 and on going. But, in real life, if you lose your first 4 bet, you will hesitate to put on 16 units bet. Even if you do place, you won't do so for the next 2 or 3 times. So, computer simulation won't have the same effects as real life.


    So, what is the betting strategy that I used? (Look here, I don't called it SYSTEM, but, strategy, because system don't will the game, strategy will)


    I placed only BANKER bet, meaning whenever I put my bet, it will always be banker. I know... many people will say it don't work. That's up to you. Statistics don't lie, in the long run, banker will have a slim advantage.

    Many people play baccarat, but, don't even understand the drawing rules. Last week I was playing a shoe where I bet banker and got two picture cards which is 0 points, whereas playing got 1 point from two cards. Then, one old man betting player start to shout "draw 8 no card for banker". Now, it is common in over here where people shout for card, no sure about US though.

    Ok, if player draw a 8 in third card, that will make it 9 pointer, but, banker still can draw a 3rd card, isn't it so? So, make sure you know the rules well, don't make a fool out of yourself when you play baccarat.

    Anyway, back to my strategy. To me, a very big advantage in buying banker is that most of the times, banker don't even need to draw a 3rd card and they win. Go and analysis your scorecard and see.


    Having said that, I don't bet every hand BANKER. That would be a sure way to lose money. So, we have to bet selectively and there are many factors (or you guys called triggers) that will determine whether I place a bet or skip the bet totally.

    Will continue on that again.

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    Ellis is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Anyone who plays W/O knowing all the rules will be cheated. It's just a question of time. At Foxwood I even caught them hitting 8's against a table full of old ladies. Anyone who naively thinks casinos don't cheat has likely already been cheated. I've caught them red handed hundreds of times. They are a corporation. Corporations MUST make their monthly bottom line or heads roll.

    I agree that computer simulation, as well as shoe pile testing, is pretty much a waste of time. You keep proving the same thing - purely mechanical systems can't win. But you already knew that. On the other hand table/system selection cannot be tested except in a casino.
    Last edited by Ellis; 03-15-2010 at 07:34 AM.

  3. #3
    ayuinca is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryan View Post
    Okay, you test a system over a millions play and let's say you get a majority win of over 50%. So what? That will never translate into 50% of winning chances you have in the casino. Why? Because there is still many other factors that can affect you.
    You have your understanding of statistics I can't criticise of this. If just a slightly over 50%, you can't say it's a majority win. Even a small percentage such as 0.5% player advantage after overcome the house be better than a system with -0.5% player advantage. If you do play mechanically and choose an affordable progression, I think the only factor is time because a shoe can play over an hour. If your system has a progression whose lose is too big comparing to capability of max win per shoe, then more factors such emotion, discipline should be considered.

    Again, I believe there is a mechanical system can win -but just how much net win per shoe you can achieve, because I have such systems. The first one I had developed is a system basing on pure probability calculation. After millions of shoes, or many sets of tens or hundreds thousand shoes test, the per shoe net win is only 0.07 due to minority of qualifying bet yet the turnover is high, more than 7%. Later I have a system basing on pattern derived from B/P. It can win minimum 0.58 unit/shoe if flat bet but the winning shoe rate is no more than 45%. This is what I think is not good enough. Combined with progression, whatever 1248 or 1136 or 8421 etc, it can increase the net win per shoe to 2 to 4 units but the shoe rate unchanged and SD becomes higher. There is anohter system I have now is good to play. Net win 0.6 unit per shoe, and over 65% winning shoes. Shoe ranges shows risk is small and acceptable. The last thing I want to say is this is completely mechanical. When I minimize my risk and know about my winning shoe rate, I think I don't concern much of other 'factors'. Therefore, who says statistics is wasting time.
    Last edited by ayuinca; 03-16-2010 at 02:00 AM.

  4. #4
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Take a break from my usual weekly casino trip as this week is a school holiday in my country and need to spend some precious times with my kids, so, have more time to make some posting.

    Now, back to my betting strategy and why I choose to bet this way.


    A little bit history.....

    It was about 20 years ago when I first step into a casino with 3 friends. That was my first time and having just started work, you guys know how broke I am. Armed with about $300 to lose (yes, you read it right, to lose), and with no knowledge of any table game, my friends give me a brief explanation to the baccarat game.

    So, there I was standing and observing them playing and I started to catch it. The table limit was min $25 then and I decide that I would bet 10 hands of $25 each and after the 10 hands, then decide what to do next.

    So, a little bit of nervous and hesitate, I started to put down 1 unit of bet every time I feel confident and out of the 10 hands, I managed to win 8 hands and lost only 2 hands which translate to 6 winning hands. Not too bad. And so, slowly, I used the same methods and slowly readjust the unit size and at the end of 4 hours, I walked out the casino $2k richer.

    That trip totally change my view, I means, in 4 hours times, I make my monthly day job pay.

    Thinking that maybe I was lucky, I make another trip a week later, armed with the profit from the 1st trip and again, I make another 2k, though it take a longer times this times round.

    From there on, as they say, the rest is history. I played during the weekend for several years and after ensuring that I have enough bankroll and savings, I make a switch to playing full time 15 years ago.


    Next... my betting trigger..

  5. #5
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by ayuinca View Post
    You have your understanding of statistics I can't criticise of this. If just a slightly over 50%, you can't say it's a majority win. Even a small percentage such as 0.5% player advantage after overcome the house be better than a system with -0.5% player advantage. If you do play mechanically and choose an affordable progression, I think the only factor is time because a shoe can play over an hour. If your system has a progression whose lose is too big comparing to capability of max win per shoe, then more factors such emotion, discipline should be considered.

    Again, I believe there is a mechanical system can win -but just how much net win per shoe you can achieve, because I have such systems. The first one I had developed is a system basing on pure probability calculation. After millions of shoes, or many sets of tens or hundreds thousand shoes test, the per shoe net win is only 0.07 due to minority of qualifying bet yet the turnover is high, more than 7%. Later I have a system basing on pattern derived from B/P. It can win minimum 0.58 unit/shoe if flat bet but the winning shoe rate is no more than 45%. This is what I think is not good enough. Combined with progression, whatever 1248 or 1136 or 8421 etc, it can increase the net win per shoe to 2 to 4 units but the shoe rate unchanged and SD becomes higher. There is anohter system I have now is good to play. Net win 0.6 unit per shoe, and over 65% winning shoes. Shoe ranges shows risk is small and acceptable. The last thing I want to say is this is completely mechanical. When I minimize my risk and know about my winning shoe rate, I think I don't concern much of other 'factors'. Therefore, who says statistics is wasting time.
    ayuinca,

    You mentioned your system tested a millions shoes and it give 0-1 unit per shoes. Now, let's face the reality. In real life casino, it is going to take 45 min to an hour to finish a shoe. You will never ever get to play a million shoes in your entire lifetime.

    Then again, when you started playing and hit a losing streak, you could lost 10 or more shoes in a row or worst, lost your bankroll and couldn't recovered. Got it?

    Again, when you are losing, your confidence is low and emotion will swing. You won't be calm enough to bet accordingly to your mechanical way as computer simulation.

    I have seen so many players lost till they don't even dare to place a unit bet and keep pondering for hours. Some place their bet and turn their faces away, don't even dare to see the cards being played. When you are down, even when you think the next play is BANKER, you will hesitate to bet. Trust me. Computer simulation won't hesitate.

    Anyway, it is just my thoughts and if you think that I am wrong, good luck to you.

  6. #6
    ayuinca is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Thank you for your advice. I understand what you mean but my system will not risk to lose the whole bankroll. That kind of system is not my type. Do you think if I play flat bet can I lose the bankroll? I can't reveal everything about my system here. If you could not stick to the system you play with, that there must be something you have not evaluate enough regarding the system. Or you already know your progression lost is big, which is a drawback, why do you still play it?

    Still those words, I can't expect everyone understand statistics the way I do. Statistics do not ask you to play millions of shoes. What statistics do is that it tells you the property or inner truth of something that you can not see from a small fraction. It's an applying science branched from math. It contributes a lot to and is still playing a important role in our modern civilization. Imaging all medicine subjects, without statistics we would have still lived in the days before statistics born.
    Last edited by ayuinca; 03-16-2010 at 02:45 AM.

  7. #7
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    My betting strategy is simple. I try to minimize my lose as much as I can. So,

    1. Bet Banker.
    2. Hit 10-15 units win, stop
    3. Stop lost at 3 units per shoe.


    I don't believe in playing long hour, if possible, cut it short. And I don't believe in winning large amount of units as that will mean longer hours and you expose to a higher risk of losing.

    For BANKER bet only, your exposure is smaller, why? Let's say you bet BANKER every hand, the only time you can lost is it turn out to be PLAYER. But, if you bet BANKER and PLAYER alternatively, you are exposed to two risk. If you buy BANKER, it may open PLAYER and if you buy PLAYER, it may open BANKER. You are chasing after the play, got it?

    Sure, you can say that the winning is minimize as well as you lose out on the PLAYER bet and that I agreed with you. But, see my objective right beginning of this post: I try to minimize the lose. As long as I minimize my risk, I got a higher chance of winning.

    Next, I seldom do progression, at most, is a 1-2. My betting is very dependent on getting a high hit rate. So, every time I make a bet, I need to be very sure that I am going to win that bet before I placed it.

    And if you think that 10-15 unit daily is low, raise your unit bet. If you can do 10-15 daily consistently, you should be seeing a nice income monthly.

  8. #8
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by ayuinca View Post
    Thank you for your advice. I understand what you mean but my system will not risk to lose the whole bankroll. That kind of system is not my type. Do you think if I play flat bet can I lose the bankroll? I can't reveal everything about my system here. If you could not stick to the system you play with, that there must be something you have not evaluate enough regarding the system. Or you already know your progression lost is big, which is a drawback, why do you still play it?

    Still those words, I can't expect everyone understand statistics the way I do. Statistics do not ask you to play millions of shoes. What statistics do is that it tells you the property or inner truth of something that you can't not see from a small fraction. It's an applying science branched from math. It contributes a lot and is still playing a important role in our modern civilization. Imaging all medicine subjects, without statistics we would have still lived in the days before statistics born.
    I do understand where you comes from and I certainly think that you are doing everyone here a favor with your testing thread.

    Maybe you can help to test my system also once I posted the trigger that lead to my bet and let me know if that give a higher winning percentage. And if don't, then, I might need to wonder what I am doing for the last 15 years

    Now, I need to go as I need to bring my kids for movies and some shopping. Will post the trigger tomorrow.

  9. #9
    ayuinca is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Well, if you have been doing great with your system then it can tell the system work. But only you know it work or not because you have many years of experince on it, you have your style. Style sometimes may be not mechanical; if completely it is mechanical and statistically say it does not show good at winning but you are still winning with it then it can tell your style is not merely mechanical.

    Welcome to post your method here and would surely give you a statistics report for free. Good to be a winning one, if it is really the case, do you want it to be revealed? lol
    Last edited by ayuinca; 03-16-2010 at 03:06 AM.

  10. #10
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    ayuinca,

    Not everyone likes my betting strategy. It takes a lot of patience. I could be sitting there for half an hour not placing a bet and seriously, I don't think many people can do that.

    Many people rush their bet like there is no tomorrow. They forget that the casino is always there and if they don't place any bet at all, they don't lose. They are on even ground and they are far better than those who lost.

    My style is to wait for the right moment and exact timings where I think the bet is at least 80% safe, then I go for it. It takes many years of playing experience to learn that and I am still learning.

    Anyway, I have PM you my trigger and you are free to test and post the statistic here. I got a few players interested and I will probably PM them the trigger after your test.

    I just want to help people if they think that my style works and suit them. However, I still believe not many people can play my way and you may be right, posting the trigger here might not be the best way.

  11. #11
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Just a quick post.

    For all those who have PM me, sorry, I don't have time to reply all one by one, but, you are on my list. I will send you guys my trigger point after ayuinca test. I just sort of interested to see how much difference computer simulation is against my manual play. Ayuinca has said that he will probably posted the result this weekend and so just hold on tight and wait for a while.

    And thanks for offering to test on your live shoes, there is really not required as throughout my live play in casino for so many years, I have attained around 80% of success hit rate and that why I am interested to see what is the result shown in computer simulation and not live shoes. I believe not many people have that many years of playing experience, except maybe Ellis who claimed to have 30 odd years.

    Someone mentioned about if my BANKER trigger bet is good, then why don't just used it on PLAYER bet only. Well, you can do that as well, but, as I say, BANKER bet do have it's advantage. If you guys want to use it as PLAYER bet, then, you are free to do so, but, just don't mix both bet as you are exposed to a higher risk of losing.

    As for my trigger, it is actually quite simple. I have a habit of marking down on my scorecard where I put my bet and after a while, I discover that when I put certain bet, I have a high hit rate and slowly, 1 trigger followed than another and I got my list of triggers in. You guys can do the same as well.

    Another note is that the triggers list to ayunica and your guys later are just the basis of what I have conclude, I do other as well such as card counting (yeap, I know, people say it's not working), seeing point obtained by player and banker during each play and others. All the rest are more complex and I think is will be harder to explain, but, the basis trigger should be good enough to play.

  12. #12
    John1234 is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    My style is to wait for the right moment and exact timings where I think the bet is at least 80% safe, then I go for it. It takes many years of playing experience to learn that and I am still learning.
    Timing!! It is great to finally hear someone talk about timing. I was playing one of my trigger based systems over the weekend. I sat at the table for about 45 minutes without making a bet and a guy who had been losing, winning, losing, winning, going back and fourth turned to me and said why don't you bet? You are right that some people just cannot wait that long. he walked away a loser and I left +15 units ahead and less stressed from not playing every single hand.

  13. #13
    ayuinca is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Surely I will spend time on this one this week once I finish my current stuff. I think Bryan will not mind I throw some light here about his strategy. This is a system looking for specific target(s). If consider any target of any length in term of probability, a specific target, say PPBBPPP(7-hand, 2B+5P) will have no difference to any other 7-hand target which has 2B+5P, say BBPPPPP or PBPBPPP, etc. So, it seems not able to overcome the house in a long term. The only thing difference is longer the target, less the occurrence. Any way, I will give it a try on test. Come back later.

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    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by John1234 View Post
    Timing!! It is great to finally hear someone talk about timing. I was playing one of my trigger based systems over the weekend. I sat at the table for about 45 minutes without making a bet and a guy who had been losing, winning, losing, winning, going back and fourth turned to me and said why don't you bet? You are right that some people just cannot wait that long. he walked away a loser and I left +15 units ahead and less stressed from not playing every single hand.
    John1234,

    You won't beat my record. I sat through slightly more than an hour and finish the entire shoe without making any bet. LOL.

    Thinking back, I should have move on to other table much earlier as the shoe is slightly more PLAYER streak and as you should know now, I will skip those bet. I believe you are playing something similar to my strategy, the differences is only your trigger is different from mine.

    Anyway, I always tell people that having no bet is much better than betting and lost and from what I see, all the systems around mostly teach people to bet every hand, didn't it?

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    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by ayuinca View Post
    Surely I will spend time on this one this week once I finish my current stuff. I think Bryan will not mind I throw some light here about his strategy. This is a system looking for specific target(s). If consider any target of any length in term of probability, a specific target, say PPBBPPP(7-hand, 2B+5P) will have no difference to any other 7-hand target which has 2B+5P, say BBPPPPP or PBPBPPP, etc. So, it seems not able to overcome the house in a long term. The only thing difference is longer the target, less the occurrence. Any way, I will give it a try on test. Come back later.
    ayuinca,

    I never said that my strategy can overcome the house in long term, did I? Remember, once I hit the 10-15 unit target, I quit the casino and out of 10 hands that I bet, I average 8 hits.

  16. #16
    John1234 is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryan View Post
    John1234,

    You won't beat my record. I sat through slightly more than an hour and finish the entire shoe without making any bet. LOL.

    Thinking back, I should have move on to other table much earlier as the shoe is slightly more PLAYER streak and as you should know now, I will skip those bet. I believe you are playing something similar to my strategy, the differences is only your trigger is different from mine.

    Anyway, I always tell people that having no bet is much better than betting and lost and from what I see, all the systems around mostly teach people to bet every hand, didn't it?
    That is impressive for you to sit there for an hour without a bet. You must have a lot of discipline to do that. I never see anybody setting out for that long. People want to get their money on the table fast and when they lose they want to put more money on the table even faster to recover. I do not think this is the way to play the game. If it is the correct way to play then I would not have been walking out of the casino a winner while the other people at my table left either a few units up, broke or even.

    Anyway, I always tell people that having no bet is much better than betting and lost and from what I see
    This is one of the smartest things that I have read on this forum in a long time.

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    Ellis is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Bryan, what casino let you sit there for an hour W/O betting?

  18. #18
    ayuinca is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryan View Post
    ayuinca,

    I never said that my strategy can overcome the house in long term, did I? Remember, once I hit the 10-15 unit target, I quit the casino and out of 10 hands that I bet, I average 8 hits.
    I hope you are correct! Whatever your system is mechanical or not, if you are winning in a long term that is to say it beats the house. If you are not playing completely according to your system, it seems there is no much significent to test it because most of mechanical thing end up being beaten by the house or just barely beat the house; if you play with your style like system+feeling, then I guess your feeling is the key. Unfortunately not eveyone has your feeling and I am not that type relies on feeling.

    I will work on your stuff soon, but don't expect too much...lol

  19. #19
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by John1234 View Post
    That is impressive for you to sit there for an hour without a bet. You must have a lot of discipline to do that.
    My strategy is all about patience and discipline. Why rush to bet when there is no clear indication that you have a high possibility of winning that bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by John1234 View Post
    People want to get their money on the table fast and when they lose they want to put more money on the table even faster to recover. I do not think this is the way to play the game. If it is the correct way to play then I would not have been walking out of the casino a winner while the other people at my table left either a few units up, broke or even.

    This is one of the smartest things that I have read on this forum in a long time.
    You are right and from your statement, I can see that you are doing very well. Few people understand the main KEY point to win at casino. It is not about making more bet so that you can make more money, but, rather, it is about having less bet and high hit rate. More bet meaning more risk and more chance to lose. I rather stay on even ground than randomly throw my money to the casino.

    I learn all about these when I first step into a casino and that trip is still deeply in my mind. If you have only got 10 chances to place your bet, would you bet every hand from the beginning or wait till you saw the right opportunity to strike. The answer is pretty obvious, isn't it?

  20. #20
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Ellis View Post
    Bryan, what casino let you sit there for an hour W/O betting?
    Ellis, if your health can take it, make a trip down to Malaysia Genting casino which is my neighboring country.

    Sat at the table for an hour, put a large amount of chips in front of you, I guarantee you that no one will chase you away. LOL


    Seriously, maybe it is different in your casino. In Asia, at any tables, you have no lack of people placing the bet. At any one times, there are at least 8 to 10 people betting and you won't even need to do anything. People will start to crowd around the table when it open.

    And not forgetting that the one I sat at is PLAYER streak, people are betting and smiling at their winning. I feel happy for them also though I never bet because I never lost as well. I still on even ground.

  21. #21
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by ayuinca View Post
    I hope you are correct! Whatever your system is mechanical or not, if you are winning in a long term that is to say it beats the house. If you are not playing completely according to your system, it seems there is no much significent to test it because most of mechanical thing end up being beaten by the house or just barely beat the house; if you play with your style like system+feeling, then I guess your feeling is the key. Unfortunately not eveyone has your feeling and I am not that type relies on feeling.

    I will work on your stuff soon, but don't expect too much...lol
    The basis of my bet is the trigger lists that I send to you. I expect that to hit 80%, plus minus a bit in your simulation as well.

    I talk about stuff such as card counting is because I am betting on BANKER and knowing what are the remaining cards that are advantage to BANKER will be good to me as I can raise my unit size accordingly.

    Having said that, if I stick to the trigger list, I would expect a much better return as well rather than betting randomly or every hand.

    I am waiting for your result and let see till then.

  22. #22
    John1234 is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    You are right and from your statement, I can see that you are doing very well. Few people understand the main KEY point to win at casino. It is not about making more bet so that you can make more money, but, rather, it is about having less bet and high hit rate. More bet meaning more risk and more chance to lose. I rather stay on even ground than randomly throw my money to the casino.

    I learn all about these when I first step into a casino and that trip is still deeply in my mind. If you have only got 10 chances to place your bet, would you bet every hand from the beginning or wait till you saw the right opportunity to strike. The answer is pretty obvious, isn't it?
    You are right, less beting and a high hit rate is very important. I think that it makes more sense to bet with larger units and get out of the shoe fast rather than playing with small units, trying to win a lot of small units. the longer you stay in the shoe the more likley it is to lose. It is actually common sense.

    right now I play 2 systems. One of the systems is my trigger based system and this is the system that has me waiting for a long time sometimes. I make sure to keep my drawdowns low at only -2 or -3 units per shoe so this way I can bet with big units and look to get out of the shoe when I make a few units profit. If I am making 100 dollar bets and I make 3 units then that is 300 dollars per hour. People need to look at it like that, an hourly pay sort of thing. that is a lot of money per hour to me. and sometimes I can get one of those rare flat bet shoes that gives me 10 units. so that is 10 unit black chips.

    the other system that I play is actually one of the the Systems from the Beat the Casino forum (Ellis site). This system is one of those bet almost (but not every) decision type systems so it is different. Right now I have a 91% win rate with it. But i do not get away from the basic stuff that we are talking about. I still follow dicipline, I do not expose myself for too long to the shoe, and if I start to lose I stop and think about my timing. and I think all of this is what really makes my win rate higher in the long run.

    When i go to the casino I always find myself walking away wondering where the people at my tables learned to play the game. I have never seen people have such disregard for MM and dicipline. They lose big and win big but give it all back. One guy won 10,000 and lost it all in one day. The weird thing is that they all seem to play the same system except for a few people. There must be some underground baccarat school that teaches these people how to lose money. Because if they would use common sense then they would walk away ahead often.

  23. #23
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by John1234 View Post
    You are right, less beting and a high hit rate is very important. I think that it makes more sense to bet with larger units and get out of the shoe fast rather than playing with small units, trying to win a lot of small units. the longer you stay in the shoe the more likley it is to lose. It is actually common sense.
    John, very rare to see people agreed with me on betting less with large unit size. I can tell you that the 10 units that I make is definitely worth more than 100 units those people that are making when converting to dollars value.

    Quote Originally Posted by John1234 View Post
    When i go to the casino I always find myself walking away wondering where the people at my tables learned to play the game. I have never seen people have such disregard for MM and dicipline. They lose big and win big but give it all back. One guy won 10,000 and lost it all in one day. The weird thing is that they all seem to play the same system except for a few people. There must be some underground baccarat school that teaches these people how to lose money. Because if they would use common sense then they would walk away ahead often.
    The difference here is that many people know that they shouldn't bet every hand, but, they are just afraid that if they don't bet, they will lose out if the play turned out to be what they guess. They are after the thrill to bet, they are looking for fun and entertainment.

    I don't. My purpose is to try my best not to lose money and bet only when I am certain. I have a point system when let say banker get certain point and player get certain point, 70% of the time, the next game will switch to the opposite play.

    Do I bet it to be so for the next game? I don't. I will pass that play because there is a still 30% that it won't and I won't risk my bet on that uncertainty.

    Good play, John.

  24. #24
    John1234 is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    John, very rare to see people agreed with me on betting less with large unit size. I can tell you that the 10 units that I make is definitely worth more than 100 units those people that are making when converting to dollars value.
    I agree..it is very rare to find people who look at it like this. I was trying to explain it to someone once while playing and they just didn't get it.

    The difference here is that many people know that they shouldn't bet every hand, but, they are just afraid that if they don't bet, they will lose out if the play turned out to be what they guess. They are after the thrill to bet, they are looking for fun and entertainment.

    I don't. My purpose is to try my best not to lose money and bet only when I am certain. I have a point system when let say banker get certain point and player get certain point, 70% of the time, the next game will switch to the opposite play.

    Do I bet it to be so for the next game? I don't. I will pass that play because there is a still 30% that it won't and I won't risk my bet on that uncertainty.
    Yes, people sometimes seem to forget that a shoe is long. There is no need to rush things. Rushing a shoe is the worst thing that someone can do.

    My purpose is also not to lose money. I hate losing. Even if it is 1 unit, I hate it. I am not at the casino to lose, I am there to make money but at the same time I still try to have a little fun.

    your method sounds interesting. I sort of do the same thing when I'm uncertain.

  25. #25
    ckeng is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by John1234 View Post
    You are right, less beting and a high hit rate is very important. I think that it makes more sense to bet with larger units and get out of the shoe fast rather than playing with small units, trying to win a lot of small units. the longer you stay in the shoe the more likley it is to lose. It is actually common sense.

    right now I play 2 systems. One of the systems is my trigger based system and this is the system that has me waiting for a long time sometimes. I make sure to keep my drawdowns low at only -2 or -3 units per shoe so this way I can bet with big units and look to get out of the shoe when I make a few units profit. If I am making 100 dollar bets and I make 3 units then that is 300 dollars per hour. People need to look at it like that, an hourly pay sort of thing. that is a lot of money per hour to me. and sometimes I can get one of those rare flat bet shoes that gives me 10 units. so that is 10 unit black chips.

    the other system that I play is actually one of the the Systems from the Beat the Casino forum (Ellis site). This system is one of those bet almost (but not every) decision type systems so it is different. Right now I have a 91% win rate with it. But i do not get away from the basic stuff that we are talking about. I still follow dicipline, I do not expose myself for too long to the shoe, and if I start to lose I stop and think about my timing. and I think all of this is what really makes my win rate higher in the long run.

    When i go to the casino I always find myself walking away wondering where the people at my tables learned to play the game. I have never seen people have such disregard for MM and dicipline. They lose big and win big but give it all back. One guy won 10,000 and lost it all in one day. The weird thing is that they all seem to play the same system except for a few people. There must be some underground baccarat school that teaches these people how to lose money. Because if they would use common sense then they would walk away ahead often.
    i hv so many system it works sometime 50% . can share with me how your system that has 91% win rate

  26. #26
    John1234 is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    I am sorry, I cannot share it. it is one of the systems from Beat the Casinos forumso it is not mine to share. Although the system is on the forum.

  27. #27
    ckeng is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    ellis , any good strategy that i can try

  28. #28
    giabao is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Bryan,
    Please let us know your triggers. We all test it for you instead only one person doing it. We all play and have records. Do not torture us anymore.
    Good day! GB

  29. #29
    ayuinca is offline BaccaratForums Member
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Please go to the system testing thread for the test report. Thanks.
    System Test Thread: Summary with Statistics on Various Systems
    Last edited by ayuinca; 03-19-2010 at 08:26 PM.

  30. #30
    Bryan is offline Banned
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    Default Re: My Betting Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by giabao View Post
    Bryan,
    Please let us know your triggers. We all test it for you instead only one person doing it. We all play and have records. Do not torture us anymore.
    Good day! GB
    Sorry guys. I have my reason for letting ayunica doing the test. I am going through his test result now and will update later.

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