Plasia's Play Log

[Plasia]

My only point remains the same. It doesn't matter if we select tables or shoes or switch methods or stay with the same one or use MM or progressions - whatever. We are either playing a mechanical method or not. We just can't have it both ways.

I'm not playing strictly mechanically, it's mostly mechanical but there are decisions to make.

[Ellis]

Archer, these guys are winning. Why does that irk you so? Why must you complain and argue so. Cool it. You sound like sour grapes. I don't have to hawk. You two drive people to my site.

[Burnings]

Plasia,

I replay your #8 and I got the following

Hi : 4 units
Lo : -4 units
Win : 2 units

[Archer]

Archer, these guys are winning. Why does that irk you so? Why must you complain and argue so. Cool it. You sound like sour grapes. I don't have to hawk. You two drive people to my site.

Maybe a few more posts before I leave Memphis. LOL, I am NOT irked because a player wins some money, lol. ???

What irks me (as if you don't know by now after 10 years or more) is the bullshit you use to sell your guess methods which are all some version of OTBL, TBL with guessing rules thrown in to make them look different. Ever method proposed in this forum for play is as good as anything you are selling! That is what irks me for those who don't get it.

Does anyone here thinkg that what he is selling now is better than "The System," or "Twister," or "SAP," or "NuSAP," or "SKOR," or "SKORz," or "RD1 F2/F3?"

You are a non-player and scam artist because you sell what amounts to junk in that it is no better than playing the ancient OTBL or TBL with some guesses, Stop W/L, and MM.

Following a quote from the "Twister Manual" What a crock of crap! Go ahead, Ellis, sue me. You can't afford to sue me, lol!!!!!! Bring it on rip off artist!

I suppose most in here don't know enough to realize that nearly every comment below is either distorted, untrue, or simply a figment of your pathetic imagination! What a donk! I don't know how people like you can sleep at night!

"2.0 THE CONCEPT OF CASINO ORCHESTRATION IN BACCARAT:

I knew, immediately, that this game was rigged! Recognize that I had already learned that BJ was highly rigged. I was already using that same rigging against the casinos to beat them at BJ every single day I
played. I had studied Thorp and understood his BJ mathematics perhaps even better than he did. Thorp had concluded that his mathematics should have produced a 6% player advantage. He was always at a loss as to why that advantage never materialized when Houston proved conclusively through his play that the real advantage was only 0.5%. I knew why almost from day one. Thorp had mathematically correctly
based all of his 500 plays against a random card dealer break rate of 28%. But the true dealer break rate in actual casino BJ is far less than 28%. This is because highs follow highs and lows follow lows far more
often than they randomly should. This is because the casino knows enough to always pick up the break cards first. This sorts the mostly low break cards from the mostly high non break cards as effectively as
the double discard shoe the Playboy Club used to employ before it was shut down. The dealer can't break in all highs (she never hits) and she can't break in all lows. You can't break on a low card except a 6 to a
16. So, the more highs and lows are clumped, the less the dealer breaks. Simple math. So why did I see
this when Thorp didn't? With all due respect to Thorp, he was playing a single deck. I was playing an 8
deck. All mathematical apparitions are multiplied by 8 in an 8 deck. It was much more obvious to me,
therefore, than to Thorp. I published the breakthrough article on breakcard clumping in 1987 in Eddie
Olson's BLACKJACK CONFIDENTIAL. Blackjack has not been the same since either for the players or for
the casinos."

Once again, Eddie Olson wouldn't touch you with a ten foot pole! He regrets that one article.

Archer >>>------------------------>

[Bryan]

I lost my first shoe, but then more than made it back in the next shoe.

I think my average will end up at around 7.

Shoe #8:

B1121115323
B11213221111121
B331221223

Low: -10
High: 1
Quit: -10

Shoe #9:

P1152125111
B11323221113
P23223211

Low: -3
High: 13
Quit: 13

Stats:

Shoes Won: 8
Shoes Played: 9
Shoe Win Percent: 88.88%

Net Win: 73.5

Highest Win: +17
Average Win: 8.16

Can someone explain what is the differences in

B1121115323
B11213221111121
B331221223

and

P1152125111
B11323221113
P23223211


Put it in simple PPPBBBPBPBPB form, I don't understand what are those.

[ADulay]

Can someone explain what is the differences in

B1121115323
B11213221111121
B331221223

and

P1152125111
B11323221113
P23223211


Put it in simple PPPBBBPBPBPB form, I don't understand what are those.

Bryan,

The notation he's using is a a pretty slick set of "shorthand" to easily post, view and/or edit a shoe.

It runs in hands of 20 at a time (4 banks of 20 will cover any shoe).

P1152125111 equates to:
P B PPPPP BB P BB PPPPP B P B

Each column of 20 hands starts with whatever came up and then alternates whenever the side changes.

It really is much easier to read and digest than the way a lot of people post up shoes which causes many transpositional errors. This way, it's always a column of 20 hands and you can spot a lot of things like this.

The one you posted (PPPBBBPBPBPB) would read: P33111111

AD

[Archer]

Archer, these guys are winning. Why does that irk you so? Why must you complain and argue so. Cool it. You sound like sour grapes. I don't have to hawk. You two drive people to my site.

First of all, Ellis, you are a predator, if people flock to your site that is their problem - they've been warned and I assume they are adults. I could care less.

Plasia, mretuv (sp), and maybe John1234 have shown that Ellis is full of baloney and I am not irked but happy they post and/or have been used by you, Ellis, as testimonial. Here is why.

You state emphatically that the game is hard to beat and that playing a deep progression is crazy and doomed to lose. Yet you use meretuv(sp) as a sample of your success. Winning 1500 units in a handful of shoes and another 300 units in 7 shoes requires a pretty deep up as you lose progression unless you are playng double up on a win which I am sure is not the case. So again you have it both ways. More Ellis BS.

You also emphatically state that you must pick the method for the shoe you are playing and then offer half a dozen systems to choose from in order to do so. Yet Plasia seemingly chose one system that he liked and won handily by using it most of the tme and guessing the rest of the time. Again Ellis having it both ways. More Ellis BS.

Plasia again proved that Ellis is full of baloney becasue you don't have to scout tables and choose shoes at all. He didn't do either and won easily. So the game isn't hard to beat at all is it Ellis and your continued mantra about casinos rigging the games, scouting tote boards, matching a method to a shoe, not playing progressions is all eye wash.

I doubt if John 1234 scouts tote boards either but he hasn't said. No matter. He can speak for himself.

You are a predator Ellis, plain and simple. You are a con man. Beginning years ago with "The System" which beat Craps, Roulette and Baccarat to present with NuSap and lies about having 4000 private members.

That crap about newsletter subscriptions you told to Mike the Administrator was just more distortion and BS.

Sour grapes? Why would I emulate a con man? I have a little more self respect!

Archer

[Bryan]

Bryan,

The notation he's using is a a pretty slick set of "shorthand" to easily post, view and/or edit a shoe.

It runs in hands of 20 at a time (4 banks of 20 will cover any shoe).

P1152125111 equates to:
P B PPPPP BB P BB PPPPP B P B

Each column of 20 hands starts with whatever came up and then alternates whenever the side changes.

It really is much easier to read and digest than the way a lot of people post up shoes which causes many transpositional errors. This way, it's always a column of 20 hands and you can spot a lot of things like this.

The one you posted (PPPBBBPBPBPB) would read: P33111111

AD

Thanks AD for the explanation, now I understand what are all those.

[Bryan]

You state emphatically that the game is hard to beat and that playing a deep progression is crazy and doomed to lose. Yet you use meretuv(sp) as a sample of your success. Winning 1500 units in a handful of shoes and another 300 units in 7 shoes requires a pretty deep up as you lose progression unless you are playng double up on a win which I am sure is not the case. So again you have it both ways. More Ellis BS.

That's impressive. 300 units in 7 shoes is like 40+ units per shoes and not to mention 1500 units in a handful of shoes.

If I am new to casino stuff, these kinds of stats will likely make me pay for the system, but, the fact that I been around for many years tells me that there are much more than what you can see.

If you are telling me that you plays 1-2 progression and achieve that result, I think you are likely to be ban from all casino because you can see what card is coming out from the shoes.

[ckeng]

Purpose of Thread
This is a thread where I will chronicle the shoes I play online at Black Orchid with real money.At this time of writing with only 3 shoes, it is statistically irrelevent (I have done well over 3 shoes, I won 10 in a row before I committed to using real money, however this is a test of live play with real money). However over the weeks and months I plan to make it relevent. I'm not going to hide my losses.

System
NuSAP/p(my modification of a BTC system).

I'm afraid I can't give many details of the system or give it out. It isn't mine to do that with. I am not selling this system, I am giving it a decent test in live play.

I can however, tell you some of the money management that I use. I never let a big (over 8) score go negative. I use capturing (say I have 11, I will capture 10, I bet 1, if I lose I quit with 10, if I win I capture 11) or half-decade cash management (don't let it go below a multiple of 5). Sometimes I quit when my score is nice in the third column (Black Orchid is a 6 deck shoe).

Stop loss is -8

Shoe #1

B1212142331
P54313211
P11223114121

Low: -2
High: 9.5
Quit: 8.5

Shoe #2

P22111113211211
P312241421
P14121222111

Low: -0.5
High: 8
Quit: 5.5

Shoe #3

P17313311
B2463221
B52211

Low: -2.5
High: 14.5
Quit: 14.5

Stats:

(for the latest stats see the latest log post)

Shoes Won: 3
Shoes Played: 3
Shoe Win Percent: 100%

Net Win: 28.5

Highest Win: +14.5
Average Win: 9.5

hi plasia, i quite not understand about low,high,quit can explain? i hv tried out so many trigger but it also depends on luck. how about yours?

[Plasia]

hi plasia, i quite not understand about low,high,quit can explain? i hv tried out so many trigger but it also depends on luck. how about yours?

low is my lowest score

high is my highest score

quit is what I walked away with

[Ellis]

Good job Plasia! Pay no attention to the naysayers. They have no idea what they are talking about and lack the attitude of good players.

I take it you are using a 1, 1.5, 2 prog???

BTW, if so, this is the same slope as a 2,3,4 prog. The advantage of a 234 is it allows you to legally play $5 units on a $10 table! Just another trick of the trade.

Keep up the good work!

Guys, this is not a simple system compared to those I see here. It utilizes SAP triggers to indicate the best system at each moment of a shoe. You won't learn it overnight. It takes much study and practice. But the advantage is that it can be played at any table and requires no table selection. This makes it highly viable for on line play as well as casino play.

It is only one of MANY good systems fully covered at beatthecasino.com private forum. Look for The Maverick System.

Like all of our systems, Maverick can be played using a good selection of recommended betting techniques from very conservative to highly aggressive depending on your "comfort level" your grasp of the system and your cash position. Plasia is obviously using a very safe and conservative betting system with Maverick but he's just starting out. Some of the results of others he posted were using more aggressive betting techniques that match their greater experience level and cash position.

But please, don't join BTC unless you are willing to put in the time and effort and are willing to be retaught from the ground up. We don't play like the others. They lose!

Each approach at BTC has its own expert. Maverick is taught by Mark. SAP is taught by Andrea, NuSap by PJ. I teach the OTB4L Sys and a bunch of others. ALL are included in your $50 a month membership. You don't "buy a system". We don't sell individual systems. You learn through teamwork and you select what you are comfortable with. We learn together and we often play together.

The tuition is $50 a month or you can buy a lifetime subscription for $500. You can quit anytime you want but most never do. We have MANY consistent winners all highly willing to give you all the help you need. And you'll never see a harsh or negative word spoken. We work as a team against the casino - not against one another. It's a great place to make lifelong friends. You'll know who your friends are and who the enemy is.

BF is a great forum! But what I see here is approaches we rejected 25 years ago. The game has come a long way since then. There ARE ways to win consistently.

[Archer]

Sorry guys, I just can't help myself. Ellis' comments are just too much fun to pass up!

Good job Plasia! Pay no attention to the naysayers. They have no idea what they are talking about and lack the attitude of good players.

Plasia is the only naysayer! Ellis you have repeatedly stated that we must know a bunch of different systems, observe the toteboard and/or table bias then pick the system for the table. Plasia has done a fine job winning. Pretty difficult to scout online shoes wouldn't you say! I guess that shoots that theory down, huh Ellis. EXCEPT ELLIS NOW HAS A METHOD THAT DOES NOT NEED TABLE SELECTION!!!!! Very convenient and very fancy footwork Ellis.

I take it you are using a 1, 1.5, 2 prog???

BTW, if so, this is the same slope as a 2,3,4 prog. The advantage of a 234 is it allows you to legally play $5 units on a $10 table! Just another trick of the trade.

??? Is this the kind of brilliance we get at BTC? Duh! You can't use 1,1.5.,2 with $5 units cause you can't make a $7.5 bet! The only way you truly can play $5 units at ANY greater limit table is to offset the bets by playing both spots - e.g. $15 on P and $20 on B. Then you got to pay the extra commission.

Keep up the good work!

Guys, this is not a simple system compared to those I see here. It utilizes SAP triggers to indicate the best system at each moment of a shoe. You won't learn it overnight. It takes much study and practice. But the advantage is that it can be played at any table and requires no table selection. This makes it highly viable for on line play as well as casino play.

Ahhha! The holy grail has arrived! NuSAP! Not to be confused with OldSAP. It takes much study! At least 2 hours! Not like the methods we see here! Let's see, hmmm, if I recall OldSAP (Self Adjusting Progression).

SAP Basic Rules

A) if 1's are frequent then start the prog 12
…..if 1's are infrequent then start the prog 21
……if 1's are least frequent then we only go 2
……if 2's are least frequent then we go 21
……if 3's are least frequent then we go 212
……if 4's are least frequent then we go 2123
……if 5's are least frequent then we go 21234

Same old s--t, different stink!

It is only one of MANY good systems fully covered at beatthecasino.com private forum. Look for The Maverick System.

Like all of our systems, Maverick can be played using a good selection of recommended betting techniques from very conservative to highly aggressive depending on your "comfort level" your grasp of the system and your cash position. Plasia is obviously using a very safe and conservative betting system with Maverick but he's just starting out. Some of the results of others he posted were using more aggressive betting techniques that match their greater experience level and cash position.

Another new method! How many does that make Ellis? 15, 20 systems? Oh, I mean - "methods." Now Ellis is saying aggressive deep progressions are okay, too. Afterall, how can Ellis now justify players making 40 units a shoe betting 2hi?

But please, don't join BTC unless you are willing to put in the time and effort and are willing to be retaught from the ground up. We don't play like the others. They lose!

Beauty! Now we get down to the real good marketing stuff! PLEASE DON'T JOIN! (Nice psychological touch Ellis!)

Each approach at BTC has its own expert. Maverick is taught by Mark. SAP is taught by Andrea, NuSap by PJ. I teach the OTB4L Sys and a bunch of others. ALL are included in your $50 a month membership. You don't "buy a system". We don't sell individual systems. You learn through teamwork and you select what you are comfortable with. We learn together and we often play together.

The tuition is $50 a month or you can buy a lifetime subscription for $500. You can quit anytime you want but most never do. We have MANY consistent winners all highly willing to give you all the help you need. And you'll never see a harsh or negative word spoken. We work as a team against the casino - not against one another. It's a great place to make lifelong friends. You'll know who your friends are and who the enemy is.

BF is a great forum! But what I see here is approaches we rejected 25 years ago. The game has come a long way since then. There ARE ways to win consistently.

Yeah, BF is a great forum (for free BTC advertising!)but it is old and tired and don't forget; the game has come a long way since then! All of the stuff you guys posted? Well, Ellis has rejected all that 25 years ago!

If you join Ellis you get all new systems and are even pretty much guaranteed to get an even newer one every month or so! But who needs a new system now that Ellis has a universal sysgem that plays any table, any online casino. Hey - remember "The System?" That beat Baccarat, Craps and Roulette. I can just see Ellis scouting the craps table, LMAO.

THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING!!!!

Archer>>>-------------------------->

P.S. Ellis if you had any kind of class you would send a check to Mike in appreciation for allowing you to advertise on his site. You are basically one long "infomercial" disguised . . .hey - why not do a real infomerical on TV. . .nah, that costs money.

[ADulay]

Ellis you have repeatedly stated that we must know a bunch of different systems, observe the toteboard and/or table bias then pick the system for the table. Plasia has done a fine job winning. Pretty difficult to scout online shoes wouldn't you say! I guess that shoots that theory down, huh Ellis. EXCEPT ELLIS NOW HAS A METHOD THAT DOES NOT NEED TABLE SELECTION!!!!! Very convenient and very fancy footwork Ellis.

I don't believe it shoots down the theory at all. If you have access to tote boards and multiple tables then by all means use the information presented. However, if you're like me and usually only have one table to play and you're the only player, then you have to be able to start the shoe and make a transition to what you plan will be a good selection and that's where the multiple plans (systems) come into play.

A strong "generic" starting plan gets you through the start of a blind shoe in time to see what should be on a tote board. It may not be the MM or method of play you want, but once started, you CAN switch to what you would play had you had access to the information in the first place.

Ellis's methodology is sound but sometimes you have to use another means to get the shoe moving, right?

AD

[Ellis]

Did the sale boat sink? Archer you definitely have a reading impairment. In one of my few recent replys I mentioned that "we teach both table selection systems and follow the shoe systems that require no table selection."

You seem to have a very selective memory and have fined tuned the art of taking statements out of context to achieve your own ends. Raving jealousy. I find your posts startlingly useless. Please excuse me if I don't read them through but they are a complete waste of time - For you, for me, and for everyone here.

Yet another thread ruined.

[Ellis]

AD, don't even bother. He'll be totally negative to anything we say no matter what it is. Archer told us that he plays biases too. But when he does it its scientifically sound or some such BS but when we do it we are guessing. You might as well argue with a chair. That's what he thinks its all about - arguing. Sometimes I wonder if Archer and Garnabby are the same person. I find it hard to believe that two people that defective both found the same small forum. It's like getting two 20 in a rows in the same shoe. Makes you wonder.

[Archer]

I don't believe it shoots down the theory at all. If you have access to tote boards and multiple tables then by all means use the information presented. However, if you're like me and usually only have one table to play and you're the only player, then you have to be able to start the shoe and make a transition to what you plan will be a good selection and that's where the multiple plans (systems) come into play.

A strong "generic" starting plan gets you through the start of a blind shoe in time to see what should be on a tote board. It may not be the MM or method of play you want, but once started, you CAN switch to what you would play had you had access to the information in the first place.

Ellis's methodology is sound but sometimes you have to use another means to get the shoe moving, right?

AD

Your point is well taken, Andy. And thanks for the response. However, in my opinion there is a flaw in that logic that does shoot down the theory. Simply, the fact that past decisions do NOT affect future outcomes is the flaw. Let me explain. The only reason to use one of Ellis’ numerous methods other than this new (ahem) universal winning method is that others would win more because of the past “information presented” as you put it. Since we all know that this information presented (past outcomes) doesn’t affect future outcomes we cannot know that they are more effective. Ellis or any of his “experts” don’t have a clue how each of these methods stack up against each other. Therefore, it would be more advisable to use this “proven” universal method.

Let’s face it. If past decisions “usually,” as Ellis says, stay the same through much of the shoe Ellis wouldn’t be in business because there wouldn’t be a game called Baccarat. The casinos would go broke.

NuSAP is NOT the first time Ellis has marketed a method that is an overall winner. “The System” was his first. He had “Holy Grail,” “Twister” with the manual was another? Also, I think the original “SAP” was supposed to be a universal method. It was only more recently after players were having difficulty corroborating his claims that he moved to the shoe selection business.

Ellis is a man for all seasons. Whatever one of his players happens to or claims to win with he will go along and incorporate that into his belief system. The latest one is the deep progressions that Mark is playing. It wasn’t a month ago when Ellis was calling deep progressions idiocy!

My guess is that most players have a heck of a time scouting tables. The casinos keep the tables full as best as they can and many games are generally crowded during normal hours. That or empty. One can’t scout an empty table.

But, yeah, you got to do something to win. Reminds me of the phrase, "your guess is as good as mine." Ellis' saying his methods are so much better than even the stuff that is presented here or many other methods is sheer arrogance and pure HORSE MANUUUUUURE!

Consider simple Baccarat Pattern Recognition for instance. A pretty good guess method. The many iterations of FLD, OLD, TBL, OTBL. Add some MM and some counts and you have everyone of Ellis' methods except the net Betting and the zig zag Net Betting.

Archer

[PoFoMoFo]

wow