Purpose of Thread
This is a thread where I will chronicle the shoes I play online at Black Orchid with real money.At this time of writing with only 3 shoes, it is statistically irrelevent (I have done well over 3 shoes, I won 10 in a row before I committed to using real money, however this is a test of live play with real money). However over the weeks and months I plan to make it relevent. I'm not going to hide my losses.

System
NuSAP/p(my modification of a BTC system).

I'm afraid I can't give many details of the system or give it out. It isn't mine to do that with. I am not selling this system, I am giving it a decent test in live play.

I can however, tell you some of the money management that I use. I never let a big (over 8) score go negative. I use capturing (say I have 11, I will capture 10, I bet 1, if I lose I quit with 10, if I win I capture 11) or half-decade cash management (don't let it go below a multiple of 5). Sometimes I quit when my score is nice in the third column (Black Orchid is a 6 deck shoe).

Stop loss is -8

Shoe #1

B1212142331
P54313211
P11223114121

Low: -2
High: 9.5
Quit: 8.5

Shoe #2

P22111113211211
P312241421
P14121222111

Low: -0.5
High: 8
Quit: 5.5

Shoe #3

P17313311
B2463221
B52211

Low: -2.5
High: 14.5
Quit: 14.5

Stats:

(for the latest stats see the latest log post)

Shoes Won: 3
Shoes Played: 3
Shoe Win Percent: 100%

Net Win: 28.5

Highest Win: +14.5
Average Win: 9.5

Why not spend most of your time researching and developing methods which at least are known and proved to begin to help? Let alone the ones which have been conclusively shown, in every way, to only hurt.

From an engineering view, computing should account for 5% of any such project... with 95% of those resources to documentation.

What you're doing is a waste of time for yourself, and everyone else.




Start with my questions (about BTC) below.




And i haven't posted it (, as you have done for all to see for $50 in a "private forum", lol.) That would, in almost all cases, be ridiculous for someone who has actually done the only work which could possibly lead somewher, or rule out the thing altogether. So who's the "hypocrite"?

The issue here though, is that i don't go around everywhere constantly posting about any of my successes, big or small... nor am putting out any and all means of decorative lies to sell, or "support", patently-useless systems (, which have been proved useless even by every one who ever tried those).




Get real, sillE (, if that's possible, lol). I don't know about "all winners are loser", but i know you are the biggest loser coming/going... and a cowardly liar at that, who has to hide behind the internet to con the most-vulnerable amongst us.

Frankly, i welcome smarter persons to this board. That would be a pleasant change, though i try to post mostly for my own enjoyment/benefit... in the event we end up with only the dumber ones.




Some time ago, NaturalNine reported to the Gambler's Glen about one of your (only?) field trips to Vegas... as he resides there, and thought he'd check it out for fun. Apparently you are again the only liar about any of that.

Why not post even one of your fantasy "degrees"? (No need to bother any universities about that info.)

And why is it, that for someone who has headed so many major corporations across the U.S., none of those appears once by googling your name?

Why not answer the question about why use "net betting"s negative betting progession, when a positive one will win so much more if you can win all the time.

How could the OLD/FTL, "net betting", etc, -stuff ever amount to anything, in factual terms?

Why not post $100,000 cash, from your latest win?

Why does BTC have so few paid-members? You may claim to be betting only "quarters" because money is no longer important to you, lol, but what about all your "students"... no one is winning anything, so money doesn't matter to any of youze?

ETC, ETC.



And which factual errors, in any of my work available to yourself, have i made about this game, or anything else on any of these boards?

__________________________________________________ ____________

Ellis, i once wrote that you're the best cure out there for gambling because after your nonsense, people just give up... and i now guess with a whole new (cultish?) outlook to boot.

One more thing, Plasia,

If BTC were so great on its own, why are you guys still here? (You don't see me hanging around there, even to belabor the same point (of who's lying, etc.))

And why do any of youze still attend the casinos, which "orchestrate" everything anyway? (Or not simply bet against the real players, instead of trying to outguess those "orchestrations"?)

Back and forth. Back and forth. WE NEED THE BACCARAT REF.

What a stupid question. Of course it came from you so it makes sense (at least to you).

We're here because we're students of the game. If there's information to learn from, we may find it anywhere.

Oh yeah, I forgot my usual question to you that you never answer.

Where do you play baccarat at? When's the last time you played? Still waiting for your answer after 6 months now.

Heck, make something up so I can stop asking you about it!

AD

Very simple answer. Bet very low on loosing streaks and bet high on winning streaks. Think possitive

As are the others here... but unlike Ellis we do it "pro bono", up-front, and w/o all the "come-ons" of a true idiot.




First, that's none of your business... i promised you nothing, owed you nothing, and asked for nothing (of any real consequence) in return.

Second, what little information i did give of myself was used only as idle "fodder" for the "Ellis's" continued fixations of dicrediting myself who has basically claimed nothing, sold nothing, and has completely "minded his own business" (until you, or someone else, had no other recourse but to "attack").

As you could imagine, it was quite amusing to see the ways those few bits were distorted, added on to, mis-read, etc. I mean, what do you guys do, spend all your time just sitting there "playing the game"? That's a bit "2-dimensional", don't you think?

Third, do you really think anyone should care where/when anyone else plays? Is that what Ellis claims to be teaching? Sounds like more of his sort of "gossip" to mask his/your own short-comings than anything else... and you certainly have yet to make one serious post about the game, itself. (But don't worry, i have more time now to be back here each and every day, if YOU or any of the other Ellis-clones choose to continue that path. More, the merrier.)

G,

OK, so you don't play. It really doesn't matter to me.

Thanks.

AD

Ergh come back from a long weekend with all this

I'll answer the questions I can understand. There are also questions that are specifically addressed to Ellis that I cannot answer.

Here's an example of a question I do not understand:

I don't understand this, you misquote Ellis and then go on to not ask a question at all based on the word you got wrong?

--- --- --- --- --- ---

I'm not sure what methods you are referring to here. What methods are proven to help?

Nothing is stopping you from not reading the thread if you deem it to be a waste of your time. I'm keeping a log of my baccarat shoes and stats playing NuSAP/p for all who are interested. If you're not interested, don't read.

Ellis is not a brilliant marketer. The members over at BTC often post their trips. For instance PJ posted about his Tunica trip 3 days ago. They are consistently winning as far as I can tell.

I'm here in the hope that something useful comes up. For instance, I rather like thegeorgiahurricane's pocketing money management and I'm thinking of implementing a version of that in my own play. This forum is not all debate and drama, there's some baccarat stuff.

Casino orchestration is good because the casino gives the game exploitable bias rather than a random mess.

Shoe #4:

P32213112113
P32111144111
B1614231

Low: -0.5
High: 18
Quit: 17

Stats:

Shoes Won: 4
Shoes Played: 4
Shoe Win Percent: 100%

Net Win: 45.5

Highest Win: +17
Average Win: 11.37

Shoe #5:

P3523151
B62135111
P73121

Low: -2
High: 17
Quit: 16

Stats:

Shoes Won: 5
Shoes Played: 5
Shoe Win Percent: 100%

Net Win: 61.5

Highest Win: +17
Average Win: 12.3

Good going Plasia! I certainly don't mean to put you down in any way, but, somehow, I'm not the least bit surprised? Hey, how does it feel to be making a little money for a change? It's a whole lot better than losing, isn't it? Keep your powder dry and keep up the good work.

Oh and thanks for answering Garnabby. I just didn't see any point in it. Everyone here knows where he is coming from - even Archer. Better you than me anyway. After all, I'm a liar. Ha!

Hey but he did at least try to write an actual post recently. I'm not sure anyone could make heads or tails out of it with his Garnabby dialect but hey, he tried. That's gotta count for something. It's pretty sad! Apparently college degreed but still can't write a lick. What a waste of money.

To repeat a few questions to Ellis/BTC, for starters,

Plasia,

Where did i misquote/misunderstand your "uncle Ellis"? Sorry, it didn't happen.

But i can certainly understand also why the shills/clones from BTC continue to just overlook the real questions put to youze. Sorry again, but your awkward attempts at some sort of humor, etc, to circumvent all of those has NO ONE fooled.

And this is why your own "play log" is pointless, beyond being pointless anyway... was going to "turn out" no other way, right?



"Orchestration" against the players... the wrong sort of bias, wouldn't you agree?

And even were it against only the other non-BTC players... just bet (less) against those other players. Don't try to second-guess that "orchestration", let alone by methods which are meaningless fantasies designed only to lure in the unthinking who have never much played the game. If the casinos could/would/should cheat the others, they could/would/should cheat also you... and can as easily as you, or i, view anything BTC has. (Better to just be less-obvious about what you're doing.)

And even were statistics and probabilities a "random mess"... that's still better than making stuff up, and "playing house" to con others out of their own money.




Say, Ellis,

Any new "suckers" lately... or are we finally beginning to "wise up" even yourself?

Find something more meaningful for yourself, enjoy your "golden years"... if you haven't lied about also that. (Maybe the real Ellis died a long time ago, or in more ways than one, lol.)

I'm degreed in Architecture, Engineering and Business but who cares what I did 50 years ago. A degree is just a ticket to get in the first door. After that you are on your own. People only hang their hat on degrees when they have nothing else to hang their hat on, like accomplishments.

BTW "degreed" and "youze" don't go together.

A couple of guys finally post play records on This defunct forum only to get criticized by you. You obviously have no idea of what's important to players. But then you aren't a player.

Membership at BTC is going just fine, esp. members from this defunct forum. Thanks to you. Pretty soon you and Archer will be the only ones left here and I'm not so sure about Archer.

Take a hint Garnabby, nobody wants you on their forum, even this forum. You are not a player. You have nothing to offer but insults that no one is the least bit interested in. You find a way to ruin every thread and you chase away anyone who does have something to offer lest they take away some of your imagined spotlight. A complete and utter phony with no redeeming value whatsoever.

I did make one mistake back there discussing card counting. I said that prolific card counting instructor had a huge forum. Forum was not a good choice of words because the students could not talk to each other. They could only talk to the scammer who could not let them talk to each other lest they ALL find out that NONE of the other students were winning either. All scammers do that. At BTC everyone can and does talk to everyone. We have nothing to hide.

If everyone posts their play records naming what approach they played it gives everyone an indication of what works vs what doesn't work once you have enough play records. THAT is the value of trip reports. But this forum has a LONG way to go. The value is obvious. These guys only make fun of posting play records because they would be embarrased to post their own. Why else? How can you have an honest forum when nobody knows how the other guy is doing? That is why scammers operate that way.

Garnabby, don't fret about Gambler's Glen. They were defunct from the start.

Could you possibly be a bit less hostile in your posts to me? I have strived to not retaliate but it's not something that's easy.

Originally Posted by Ellis
To you, all winners are liars. Just because you can't figure out how to win yourself does't mean smarter people can't. 48 going on 8. Garnabby you know nothing about me whatsoever except my age and the state where I reside. Just because you quote your own lies about me does not make them true. It just makes them double lies.


Get real, sillE (, if that's possible, lol). I don't know about "all winners are loser", but i know you are the biggest loser coming/going... and a cowardly liar at that, who has to hide behind the internet to con the most-vulnerable amongst us.

That's what I was referring to when I said you misquoted him. Maybe you didn't misquote him, you just quoted him and made a semi-related rant? This was just below where you said: Start with my questions (about BTC) below. If you don't understand my confusion, then don't worry about it, let's move on.

Why not post even one of your fantasy "degrees"? (No need to bother any universities about that info.)

I don't know Ellis's degrees and I'm not really that fussed to be honest.

And why is it, that for someone who has headed so many major corporations across the U.S., none of those appears once by googling your name?

When has he said this?

Why not answer the question about why use "net betting"s negative betting progession, when a positive one will win so much more if you can win all the time.

A simple exercise for most people. Look up plurium interrogationum and post where Garnabby has made the logical fallacy in his question. Please ask questions properly.

How could the OLD/FTL, "net betting", etc, -stuff ever amount to anything, in factual terms?

I'd like to answer this. However I need some clarification over what exactly you want to know.

Why not post $100,000 cash, from your latest win?

I don't have $100,000 cash. I'm just starting to play with a small amount of real money. I only recently finished uni and my job doesn't give me that much spare money. I only play baccarat with spare money. My previous wins at crown casino I have spent on videogames for my collection.

Why does BTC have so few paid-members? You may claim to be betting only "quarters" because money is no longer important to you, lol, but what about all your "students"... no one is winning anything, so money doesn't matter to any of youze?

A guy on our forum called Mreteuya plays for a living. He's doing quite well. PJ always wins his trips and MVS has a very impressive record. That's just a few of them.

Plasia, don't bother with this jerk. He just isn't worth it. He knows nothing himself and therefore must always quote others.

For instance any experienced gambler knows the nemesis of betting up as you win. You always lose your highest bets. That's first grade stuff. But Garnabby just now "discovered" it.

People who must hang their hat on their degrees have nothing else to hang their hat on. Degrees aren't the measure of the man. They just get you in the door when you have nothing else to get you in the door. Your accomplishments are your record. Once in the door many Corporate studies show that your degrees have no bearing on advancement.

I once fired an honors Electrical Engineering graduate of a major ivy league college for incompetence. The damn guy couldn't make a flashlight work and was the joke of the mere electricians who worked under him. When I checked his references I found that the local Electric Utility Co had also fired him. You guessed it - for incompetence.

I have a wall full of degrees but I'll take experience over degrees any day.

Benjamin Franklin said: "I learned more about Navigation in my first half hour on Long Island Sound than I learned in four years of Navigation School." I myself, got straight A's for my BA yet I am the worst business man I know. Hell, high school drop outs have done better than me.

On my first day on the job I learned that all my Engineering schooling was ten years behind the times. Shit, I was learning from mere technicians.

This guy lives in the past because he has no present to live in. Pay him no mind. Degrees themselves are meaningless. It's what you do with them that counts. His degree obviously didn't take. This guy can't even read and write and proves it with every post.

If he doesn't like your play records he does't have to read them. But I'm sure others get more out of them than all the posts Garnabby wrote put together. It's about real life.

He's just out to ruin yet another thread because he's so jealous of it. Can't win himself and hates those who can.

Good going Plasia, nice win! One question if you don't mind. How do you select tables at that casino? After all, Ellis does say in order to win one must - otherwise it is just "sick" gambling. Sorry, but that is what he said.

Thanks for posting those shoes I replayed them in a totally same simple mechanical way and did NOT to quite as well as you did while using your MM criteria. My results follow: Win all shoes, 59 units your MM; 67 units playing the shoe until end. Average bet size less than 2 units.

In the same order from 1-5.

LOW -1
HIGH 16
QUIT 15
NO STOP 15

LOW -1
HIGH 9
QUIT 8
NO STOP 18

LOW -1
HIGH 16
QUIT 15
NO STOP 12

LOW -4
HIGH 12
QUIT 11
NO STOP 15

LOW 11
HIGH 10
QUIT 10
NO STOP 7

All I did was play a FLD using a 123 NP; when I hit a 1 in a row I followed the alternating decisions (zig zag) and then went back to FLD on a loss. I used one mechanical side stop with a certain common pattern.

There are also other ways to win these shoes using a common method for all of them.
*********************
For me this thread begs the question about mechanical systems. Ellis says no strict mechanical method can win long term. There must be a change in methods within the shoe, right? Just like I have done above and just as Plasia did. So what is the "change" criteria? Must be some signal, right? Some pattern to skip, some pattern to key off of? Do we just change modes or methods in a random fashion? Of course not. The signal to change, stop, skip, etc. then becomes part of a mechanical method which shoud be easily programmed. What say you all?

Archer

No it isn't Acher as you know perfectly well. Again, please stop misquoting me. I said the BEST way to play is to first find the strongest strend (bias) in the casino and then play the system that beats that bias best. I did not say you could not win otherwise. I even mentioned "follow the shoe" systems I teach that do not need table selection. Remember that? Of course not. Geez, you completely misquote people and then argue with the misquote. You'd make a great polititian!

Archer, ANYBODY can win AFTER the fact. The object is to know how to win BEFORE the fact.

Not necessarily: As I said just yesterday, I end up changing systems mid shoe in only about 1 in 12 shoes. This reflects good table selection and good system selection in the first place.

Right but it varies with each system. If we are starting with a net bet system like SKOR we reaccess at a score of -4 or sometimes less when we have made an obvious mistake in system selection.

In "follow the shoe" approaches we sometimes like to pair certain systems that are complimentary to each other. For instance Mark T is some 1500 units up pairing RD1 with F2,3. The idea is that RD1 hates 1 in a rows while F2,3 loves 1's whether single or multiple. This creates a viable switch signal - a confirmed 1 in a row.

With other pairs sometimes we use 2 losses in a row and sometimes 3 usually depending on the least common event in the shoe at hand. And sometimes we use certain events or patterns. It depends on the system we are playing or the pair we have combined.

Yes, Some of our "follow the shoe" approaches COULD be programmed to a certain extent but you can't program either table selection or system selection. So I see little, if any, benefit.

The only sure benefit I see in programming is to demonstrate that no purely mechanical system works long term - just as you have done on this forum. But I'm always open to reasonable suggestion.

Look, I have been watching and playing purely mechanical vs follow the shoe systems for 30 years. To me The bottom Line is this: One works, the other doesn't. But you guys choose for yourselves. I can only point.

Some of you are going down the right road - most aren't. But on this forum I can only point. If you choose to ignore 30 years of experienve, that is your prerogative.

The Black Orchid table is currently really nice. If it was bad, I wouldn't play. That's the only sort of table selection I can do with Black Orchid.

Yeah that is rather similar to my current approach. You've found the current weakness of Black Orchid

You are correct. I change based on multiple conditional triggers in NuSAP/p. I haven't been changing very often lately. The Black Orchid shoes are all rather nice at the moment. (As you discovered with your play it is nice and consistent).

OMG, how would anyone be so foolish as to choose to ignore 30 years of experience? 30 years? When did you start selling "The System" that beat Baccarat, Craps and Roulette? I think people are choosing to ignore 30 years of _______(fill in the blank)!

Everyone of your methods are purely mechanical so what are you trying to pull? When you have specific bet placements that follow specific rules you have a mechanical method. Doesn't matter how many bet placement methods you combine. By definitioon they are mechanical.

If they are not mechanical then they are just guesses. Nothing wrong with that but tell it like it is for Pete's Sake. (who is Pete anyway? - must be St. Peter; that never ocurred to me before.)

"You can only point." ??? You can do whatever you want here. You can just listen, discuss, teach, or sell. You "choose" to sell! End of story!

A

Shoe #6:

P211113151211
B1111123311221
P5211

Low: -5.5 (ouch)
High: 8.5
Quit: 6

Stats:

Shoes Won: 6
Shoes Played: 6
Shoe Win Percent: 100%

Net Win: 67.5

Highest Win: +17
Average Win: 11.25

wow, this shoe almost kicked my arse.

Stop loss has been changed with testing to -10, not -8 like in the original post.

Shoe #7:

P31223111411
P52321313
P1421211

Low: -8.5 (VERY close to quitting and being my first losing shoe)
High: 3
Quit: 3

Stats:

Shoes Won: 7
Shoes Played: 7
Shoe Win Percent: 100%

Net Win: 70.5

Highest Win: +17
Average Win: 10.07

I lost my first shoe, but then more than made it back in the next shoe.

I think my average will end up at around 7.

Shoe #8:

B1121115323
B11213221111121
B331221223

Low: -10
High: 1
Quit: -10

Shoe #9:

P1152125111
B11323221113
P23223211

Low: -3
High: 13
Quit: 13

Stats:

Shoes Won: 8
Shoes Played: 9
Shoe Win Percent: 88.88%

Net Win: 73.5

Highest Win: +17
Average Win: 8.16

Only thing to say is SOUNDS GREAT! Good job. Are you still using the RD1 F2/F3 thing from Ellis on all these shoes? If yes would you recommend folks to get this strategy from Ellis? For 50 bucks this sounds like a great deal.

A

I am playing nearly the same system as him and I have won 12 of my last 13 shoes.

Those shoes are terrific shoes and easy wins. John, I didn't know you were part of Ellis' private forum. How do you know what he is playing - did he say?

A

yep, I am part of his forum. I was winning before I joined his forum but I wanted to learn new approaches to the game to complete myself as a baccarat player. Even though I was winning, I felt like I was still lacking in some areas and I get tired of playing the same system all of the time. So they are the reasons why I joined.

I know what he is playing because he talks about it. We all talk about the system overthere. There is actually a lot of communication, and it is all peaceful. There are a few very good systems/methods on the BTC forum and Plasia has taken one of those methods and he has done a great job playing it.


I wish that people around here would just step back and consider the fact that BTC is not a scam. It is a place to learn and grow as a player. And this is where the success stems from. I like to win but at the same time I like learning about the game. Whether someone has a succesful system or not, it is a great place to be.