Thread: 123 Parlay Martingale

This is my first post here, so please give me feedback. I just want to know if I'm crazy.

This system is something I put together for Baccarat. Before I explain the entire system here are three general rules:

1. Your goal is to win 3 parlays per shoe.
2. If you lose your "123 Parlay Martingale" then you are done with that shoe. If you are not able to guess 3 in a row on a shoe, then your betting system does not match it. Find another shoe.
3. Have fun!

Okay, now we get to the juicy part:

Bet one unit, win parlay to 2 units, win do a partial parlay to 3 units and put your original bet back in your chip stack.
If you win the 3 unit bet you just completed the "123 parlay" part.

You are probably asking what happened to the "Martingale" part? Well, when you lose you will want to keep track of how many times you lost. A loss is defined as not completing the "123 parlay". If you win your 2 units bet you just lose less if your "Martingale" gets crushed, which it will sometimes.

The "Martingale" goes like this:

Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 2 unit - lose
Bet 2 unit - lose
Bet 2 unit - lose
Bet 3 unit - lose
Bet 3 unit - lose

That's 10 losses in a row, now leave the shoe. Your prediction system is terrible.


***Total possible loss per shoe is 17 units.*** Chances are you won't even lose that much. Let me show you why:

Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 1 unit - win, Bet 2 units - win, Bet 3 units lose
Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 1 unit - lose
Bet 2 units - win, Bet 4 units - win, Bet 6 units lose
Bet 2 units - lose
Bet 2 units - lose
Bet 3 units - win, Bet 6 units - win, Bet 9 units lose
Bet 3 units - lose

Notice you actually won two bets in a row three times when your "Martingale" was getting crushed. This means instead of losing 17 units, you only lost ***11 units*** for this scenario.


Let's do some math to understand why I call it "Martingale":

When you actually win the "123 Parlay" you win 6 times your original unit. If your original unit is $10, then you just won $60 profit. Let's use $10 instead of units to understand this sytem more clearly:

Lose $10
Lose $10
Lose $10
Lose $10
Lose $10
Now is a good time to increase your original unit to 2 units. You've lost $50 so far.
Lose $20
Lose $20
Win $120 after hitting a "123 parlay". Now you are $30 ahead or 3 units. As with any "Martingale" you now start over and
start betting 1 unit again.

Lose $10
Lose $10
Win $60 after hitting another "123 parlay". Now you've won $40 more or 4 units and you start over again.

Lose $10
Win $60 after hitting your third "123 parlay". You've won another $50 or 5 units and you are done with this shoe.


Here are some basic ideas about the system and why I set it up like I did:

1. Odds to hit 3 in a row are approximately 1 in 8.
2. You get 10 tries to hit the 1 in 8 chance.
3. If you can't hit a 1 in 8 chance with 10 tries, then this is not your shoe. Cut your losses and wait for the next one. It's better to play tight when losing, because you want to lose the least possible amount.

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That's basically the entire system. I don't know if I like the name of the system too much, but I couldn't think of what else to call it. Maybe someone on this forum could come up with a better name.

All right, this is a betting strategy. It has to work with a bet selection system, right?

Yes, it's a betting strategy and you would still need to guess when to bet. I wonder what bet selection system it would work best with?

To be honest, Its still a guessing game of 50/50. We all know that. I have messed with these games of chance (50/50) for too many years. This is more of a possitive than a negative prog. I lean more to a pro vs neg prog. I favor flat betting with a slow increase in units to off set the house. I am not a Ellis member, But I do think Ellis is right about following a shoe to determine your next bet. I see shoes following certain patterns that anyone can take advantage of. It could be singles vs streaks. B vs P. Repeats vs opposites. The key is to watch and take advantage of the shoe. I think doing a possitive prog can get you into a position of making a killing vs a negative prog that can wipe you out. Study a shoe for the first 10 to 20 hands and follow it.

While im on the subject of 50/50. If you watch the shoes outcome. You will notice that they run neck to neck in B vs P. The same is true on B outdoing P or B outdoing P. Its still 50/50. A possitive prog can survive a neck to neck shoe. A negative prog can win on a neck to neck shoe. A possitive prog can make a killing on a dominate shoe.

Kilowatt's 123 Parlay Martingale.

I have a question for Kilowatt. Have you come up with a rule about when you progress to the next level? Is it after so many losses (like two or three) or do you have another indicator?

I have read that the bet selection called, DBL, an acronym for "decision before last" (or what the French call, "Avant Dernier") works best to catch a streak of wins on either side, Banker or the Player. Maybe that might be the best bet selection for this 123 Parlay method.

I forgot to mention at any point during the "Martingale" you should win at least 2 units. I set up the first bets to be 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3 because of that. There may be a better way to do the first bets and I'm open to anyone that would recommend something better.

Greylove wrote:

While im on the subject of 50/50. If you watch the shoes outcome. You will notice that they run neck to neck in B vs P. The same is true on B outdoing P or B outdoing P. Its still 50/50. A possitive prog can survive a neck to neck shoe. A negative prog can win on a neck to neck shoe. A possitive prog can make a killing on a dominate shoe.

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So dominate shoes would be something to look for when using this system?

A dominate shoe is something to look for in almost any system

Hi Kilowatt
I like your approach. I tend to be a conservative player and don't like to change the size of my wagers too much. As you know it is impossible to guess the next hand with greater than 50% accuracy so changing the size of our bets and having profit and loss limits is all we can do.
I like to use the Avant Dernier method for choosing my bets. Like all bet selection methods it has it's moments.
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home

Thanks for your comments. I've looked into the Avant Dernier and I like it. I'm sure someone has probably thought about modifying it to be banker biased, but I'll mention it anyway. How about only betting Banker on the Avant Dernier when it points towards Banker winning, since Banker wins more often than player?

Ur first post.. quote.."I don't know if I like the name of the system too much, but I couldn't think of what else to call it. Maybe someone on this forum could come up with a better name."
How about...."Bac it up"...hey uhhuh yea?

"Bac it up" sounds like a rap song. I like the name and will keep it under consideration as a name I may want to use. Thanks for the recommendation.

kilowatt...u still around?