Thread: Target Betting System -it's totally free

What follows is a system provided free by a blog author named Seth Theobeau. He is a longtime Blackjack player who tells on a blog, which he has written for over a year, about using this system to win consistently. Although he plays it for Blackjack, he has employed it some for Baccarat (he just prefers Blackjack) and it works in any casino game because it is not based on a bet selection method, but rather a way of betting which continuously recovers losses. Seth has written steadily about the Target Betting System in his blog since March 2009. This isn't something he has just now come up with and thrown out there, but a method he really believes in and uses. His discussions about gambling mathematicians are quite entertaining. He calls them "mythematicians."

You can check out his blog for some very intereresting reading:

Winning with Target Betting


Here is how Seth explains the Target Betting System:

Target betting simply means knowing at all times how much you are "in the hole" in a given series, a series being a string of bets that starts with a minimum wager and continues until a profit has been achieved.

Your objective is to make a steady profit, and because you know ahead of time that in the end you will lose more bets than you win, you also know that the only way you can make money is by winning more when you win than you lose when you lose.

Psychic ability is not required.

What's needed is a set of responses tailored to circumstances and requiring a different reaction to a win than to a loss. In this way, the damage done by a string of consecutive losses will be less than the benefit derived from a similar string of consecutive wins, and over time, the value of your average winning bet will be greater than that of your average losing bet.

For example, 49 wins at $11 will offset 51 losses at $10 and overcome a house advantage of 2% (negative expectation being a loss of $21, replaced by a win of $29 or 2.8% of overall action).

It is not my purpose here to explain in detail why the method works, but to challenge skeptics to try it themselves and discover its merits from their own experience rather than mine.

Step one is to learn the rules below. Step two is to put them into action without risk until confidence (and competence) has been gained. Step three is to take what you have learned into a casino and kick ass.

Rules

As long as you are behind in a series, carefully track your loss to date (LTD) until a win comes along, then respond to that win by pushing out a next bet (NB) that covers the sum total of the LTD plus a target profit ($5 or 1 unit is good, $25 or 5u is better).

If the mid-series win is followed by a loss (as it will be slightly more often than not) the loss becomes the new NB value, and the series continues until the next win, when the process is repeated. Eventually, a second consecutive mid-series win will bring an end to the series (EOS), and the bet falls back to the minimum 1u.

Target betting will prevail in the long run with just the LTD+TGT rule in place, but I recommend rules variations that will not only boost profitability but will serve to camouflage what you are doing and confuse the enemy (you know who they are).

After an opening loss, bet 5x the previous bet (PB).
After a second loss, bet PB/2 and do the same after a third loss.
If losses continue, repeat the bet (NB=PB) until a win, then apply the LTD+ rule.

After an opening win, bet 2x (NB=PBx2), and keep doing that after each successive win until the bet hits $200.
When the win progression (WP) x2 limit is reached, NB=PB+$100 until a loss ends the winning streak.
When an opening winning streak ends with a loss, NB= the lesser of PBx2 or PB+$100 and LTD=PB.
If losses continue, freeze the bet (NB=PB) and continue doing so until a win calls for the LTD+TGT rule.

Doubled wins (meaning any wins greater than the value of the original bet) do not affect the NB value, but doubled losses change the NB value to match the prior loss (-1, -1, -1, -1x2, -2, -2, -2x3, -6 and so on).

With this method, bets can increase very rapidly, sometimes to amounts that are prohibited by the table limit at the layout where the series began. Whenever that happens, move to a higher-rent layout, and continue the series as before.

Higher bets mean greater risk, at least in your first few hours of target betting play, but they also mean recovery of past losses in fewer bets than it took you to get into trouble and in the end, bigger profits.

Always add at least half of every session's profit to your bankroll, enabling you to grow stronger and tougher to beat.

Whenever you feel uncomfortable or threatened in a given location, move and take your NB/LTD numbers to a new layout ("the math" will be unaffected). Never break the strategy rules, never touch alcohol during play, and never take losses personally, because they are always temporary.

And...keep reminding yourself that if you win more when you win than you lose when you lose, then losing more often than you win won't hurt you. It's sound logic, and irrefutable arithmetic. Now get out there and win.

It's interesting reading and requires a lot of bankroll. In many ways it is similar to one of the Garcia methods which I posted about previously on this forum where you bet (according to a set of rules) to recover losses.

I've tested this method in it's pure form and variations. Like a lot of methods it has its merits. But be prepared for large draw downs on bad streaks. Probably about as suicidal as a Martingale.

Originally Posted by polemic

It's interesting reading and requires a lot of bankroll.

With this method, bets can increase very rapidly, sometimes to amounts that are prohibited by the table limit at the layout where the series began. Whenever that happens, move to a higher-rent layout, and continue the series as before.

It would appear to me that any system or method of play that runs you up to the table limit while chasing a loss, would eliminate pretty much everybody that I know who plays the game.

Now, if you run up to the table limit on a winning progression, well that's a whole differrent animal!!

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Originally Posted by samredman

What follows is a system provided free by a blog author named Seth Theobeau. He is a longtime Blackjack player who tells on a blog, which he has written for over a year, about using this system to win consistently. Although he plays it for Blackjack, he has employed it some for Baccarat (he just prefers Blackjack) and it works in any casino game because it is not based on a bet selection method, but rather a way of betting which continuously recovers losses. Seth has written steadily about the Target Betting System in his blog since March 2009. This isn't something he has just now come up with and thrown out there, but a method he really believes in and uses. His discussions about gambling mathematicians are quite entertaining. He calls them "mythematicians."

You can check out his blog for some very intereresting reading:

Winning with Target Betting


Here is how Seth explains the Target Betting System:



It's interesting reading and requires a lot of bankroll. In many ways it is similar to one of the Garcia methods which I posted about previously on this forum where you bet (according to a set of rules) to recover losses.

Thank you samredman, for this link.

r/s

This sounds remarkably similar to Ian Harmers "Turnaround" system from a few years back. when I first found it I thought that it was the grail, it didnt take long to find it wasn't although I still like some of the ideas behind it.

magicman,

I am of the same thought, I would never use the MM plan, but the blog is good reading.

r/s

This seems to be only Money management. How about Bet Selection.
Can anyone give the illustration on this MM with 25 dollar unit? I really appreciate your help. It seems hard to follow the instruction. Tx

Originally Posted by giabao

This seems to be only Money management. How about Bet Selection.
Can anyone give the illustration on this MM with 25 dollar unit? I really appreciate your help. It seems hard to follow the instruction. Tx

Giabo,

In his blog he mentions he prefers betting same as time before last or TBL. He also mentions betting on just one side.

Unless you have $100,000.00 forget the MM, his recommended spread is 1-5000. On a nickel game the high bet to get out, is $25,000.00. So, once again it boils down to HIT AND RUN, and accepting your losses on losing days.


R/S

Originally Posted by now here

Giabo,

In his blog he mentions he prefers betting same as time before last or TBL. He also mentions betting on just one side.

Unless you have $100,000.00 forget the MM, his recommended spread is 1-5000. On a nickel game the high bet to get out, is $25,000.00. So, once again it boils down to HIT AND RUN, and accepting your losses on losing days.


R/S

hit & run with a $25k bet? wow - if i had $25k, i'd start a business

lol hotdog... yeah.. maybe hotdog business jk.....

yeah... putting $25K on table is crazy... i mean some people do something very crazy sometimes...

if you start betting 10k then you got find counselor for gambling....

yes i agree with you.. if i have to put $25k on table or start business then i definitely will go for business....

but what business can we start with 25K??

but what business can we start with 25K??

Probably, a hotdog business??

They are many rich people in this world.

I see players bet with $25,000 chip (pink) at the Bellagio "High Limit" room many times.

I wonder what "IamSamRedman" thinks of this

how dare you get my name