Thread: Number of naturals

I was thinking the other day if the number of naturals on one side or the other (or non-naturals) could be used as a predictor. I don't know... I'm just thinking out loud.

Here's a trivia question for you... is a natural more likely to be a Banker or Player? The answer - dead even - 50/50. This is true no matter the shoe's composition. True from the very first hand to the last.

Off the top of an 8-deck shoe BN and PN each has 16.26% chance of occurance and TN 1.79%. That's just over 1/3 of the hands are naturals, and there is an absolute 50-50 chance for B or P. So that means the remaining 2/3 of the hands accounts for the Banker/Player differences.

Would knowing the natural (or non-natural) B/P counts give any incite to the chances of the next hand?

Thanks fulkgl, I know what I will be doing today. I think this is something worth looking into. Im not too sure about naturals coming up 1/3 of the time. Now you got me brainstorming today

I just pulled out 3 recent scorecards to see what my ratios were...

shoe176:
BPT= 42-32-8
naturals= 13-12-0 (30.5%)
non-naturals=29-20-8

shoe177:
BPT= 44-35-3
naturals= 15-15-0 (36.6%)
non-naturals= 29-20-3

shoe178:
BPT= 32-44-7
naturals= 12-19-5 (43.3%)
non-naturals= 20-23-2

A new 8-deck shoe should have 34.30% naturals. A new 4-deck shoe should have 34.33% naturals. A new 1-deck shoe should have 34.44% naturals. So the number seem consistent, and the 3 recent scorecards seem to agree.

The math for an 8-deck shoe should be this:
PN=16.26% Pnon-N=28.36%
BN=16.26% Bnon-N=29.60%
PN=1.79% Tnon-N=7.73%