Thread: Give me good advice

Hello Guys, I lost $2000 last night at Bac. I joined this forum for some good advice on how to get my money back. Does anybody have any good advice for me?

Oh Nelline, I cant believe you lost that much. Shame on you. I told you to walk away when your down. See what happens when I leave you by yourself? You are naughty. My advise is walk away when the loosing streak hits. Dont fight it. You can fight me but you never fight a loosing streak. Next time im gonna have to spank you. Come on forum members. Can you help her out with some good advice.

Graylove, Is that the best advice you can give me. Dont threaten to spank me. You know I like it. Where is that Ellis guy you told me about? I need a real man to show me how to play. Are you there Mr. Ellis? Can you help me?

Dear horny one-

Yes, Baccarat has this effect on many ( losing $2000....)

Ellis can be reached at Beat the Casino

Good luck!!

I'm always happy to help ANYONE who wants help. The whole trick is to FOLLOW the shoe at hand rather than fight it.

These blind mechanical systems which require great courage to play always lose in the long run, unfortunately but I'm sure I don't need to tell you that.

What you need is a LOW risk approach that is not blind - that follows whatever the shoe is doing but yet simple enough to play error free.

There are several such approaches on my forum. But the one causing all the buzz at the moment is explained on the 15 page thread "Mreteuya's Maverick Play." Don't let the title scare you. It is extremely conservative employing a 121123 progression. I realize it sounds like its too conservative to win much. But on the contrary, Mark is averaging 12 units a shoe and winning every day as a full time pro player and is up well over a thousand units now playing this simple way. Several others have duplicated his results.

The approach involves a simple "SAP" count to tell you when to switch between three very simple systems RD1, F2 and F3. As is, it has a very high win rate and your losses are always very small because you are NEVER found betting AGAINST the trend.

I'm currently trying to get the guys to look at the possibility of adding Sys 40 to the options to make it stronger in chop. But this may fall on deaf ears since it already usually beats chop. Sometimes its better to follow the KISS principle than to try to get the last bit of advantage out of every approach. That last bit of advantage might make it too complex.

But here's the thing! It only cost you $50 to find out if you like our forum or not. But I warn you that almost everybody who trys it stays there. You'll find it a far friendlier place where everyone is part of the team and everone helps the new guys. Its a far better learning environment. You'll never hear a negative word spoken and ALL your questions get answered. Also, everyone abides by our motto: There is no such thing as a dumb question. You'll be rubbing elbows with lots of winning players and you'll soon see exactly why they win no matter which approach they pick. We have certain rules that always keep us in the winners circle. Also you'll get plenty of opportunity to play with these guys and see for yourself.

Pretty darn soon, losing $2000 will become just a distant bad memory and you'll wonder how you could ever have played that bad.

Hello, My name is Mark Ripple, son of E. Clifton Davis.

I am the author of Handicapping the Wall Street Way.

The only thing not fake about this thread is my Dad's response. (and mine) Look at the number of posts each person has. I am new so don't really count me out as I would register like "Garnabby" or "Bac" or "Beyonce Knowles".

I just wanted to say "Hi" and let you know I am watching.

Think Inside the Circle!

M

Sorry Mr. Ellis. Im lost. I dont understand the sap, r1 and all that stuff. I quess I'm a blond. But thank you so much for responding to me. I'm new to Bac and I quess it will take time to learn the talk. I did very well when I was with Graylove. I just would bet what ever he bet and I won. Hey Graylove, Can you email me today and tell me what all this lingo means. Thank you Ellis

First of all:

1. It is "Cousin Ellis"

2. What would you like to know? I will wake him up, because he is not interested in horny Baccarat Guys posing as "Princesses"---but, hey, if that is you thing...

Mark

Let me know the next time your visiting Vegas. I will show you a pose you will never forget. My pose for your teachings.

Might have worked about 30 years back!

Originally Posted by hornybacprincess

Hello Guys, I lost $2000 last night at Bac. I joined this forum for some good advice on how to get my money back. Does anybody have any good advice for me?

Call up Ellis, lose the rest of your money, and get on with your life!

Originally Posted by MarkRipple

The only thing not fake about this thread is my Dad's response.

You forgot to say, "Simon says... ."

Originally Posted by Ellis

I'm always happy to help ANYONE who wants help. The whole trick is to FOLLOW the shoe at hand rather than fight it.

These blind mechanical systems which require great courage to play always lose in the long run, unfortunately but I'm sure I don't need to tell you that.

What you need is a LOW risk approach that is not blind - that follows whatever the shoe is doing but yet simple enough to play error free.

There are several such approaches on my forum. But the one causing all the buzz at the moment is explained on the 15 page thread "Mreteuya's Maverick Play." Don't let the title scare you. It is extremely conservative employing a 121123 progression. I realize it sounds like its too conservative to win much. But on the contrary, Mark is averaging 12 units a shoe and winning every day as a full time pro player and is up well over a thousand units now playing this simple way. Several others have duplicated his results.

The approach involves a simple "SAP" count to tell you when to switch between three very simple systems RD1, F2 and F3. As is, it has a very high win rate and your losses are always very small because you are NEVER found betting AGAINST the trend.

I'm currently trying to get the guys to look at the possibility of adding Sys 40 to the options to make it stronger in chop. But this may fall on deaf ears since it already usually beats chop. Sometimes its better to follow the KISS principle than to try to get the last bit of advantage out of every approach. That last bit of advantage might make it too complex.

But here's the thing! It only cost you $50 to find out if you like our forum or not. But I warn you that almost everybody who trys it stays there. You'll find it a far friendlier place where everyone is part of the team and everone helps the new guys. Its a far better learning environment. You'll never hear a negative word spoken and ALL your questions get answered. Also, everyone abides by our motto: There is no such thing as a dumb question. You'll be rubbing elbows with lots of winning players and you'll soon see exactly why they win no matter which approach they pick. We have certain rules that always keep us in the winners circle. Also you'll get plenty of opportunity to play with these guys and see for yourself.

Pretty darn soon, losing $2000 will become just a distant bad memory and you'll wonder how you could ever have played that bad.

Let's cut to the chase here Ellis! You state, "I'm always happy to help ANYONE who wants help." Normally the word "help" doesn't come with a price tag. Perhaps you misspoke? Let's be clear. Are you going to post this "new" method? If not will you sell this concept for the $50.00? You write, "But here's the thing! It only cost you $50 to find out if you like our forum or not." This whole thing now sounds like the classic "Bait and Switch."

Please don't view the above as an attack. You have every right to do as you please. I am just asking you to be clear. Can any of us get the rules of this method and if there is a cost, how much?

Archer>>>---------------------->

try this:

system 16
-------------

cut 16 pieces of paper equally. on every piece write down one of these:

bbbb pppp bbbp pppb bbpp ppbb bppp pbbb bpbp pbpb bbpb ppbp bpbb pbpp bppb pbbp


bring 15 units with you, go to the any bacarat table. do not look at the score board

pickup 1 piece of the paper: say you picked "ppbb" on the first opportunity at the table, buy "player" 1 unit, if lose buy player 2 units, if lose, buy banker 4 units, if lose buy banker 8 units, if lose go home. if you win at any stage, put back the paper and repick again and follow the new sequence diligently. you will win.


summary: you have 15:1 ratio to win 1 unit, go home after you win 6-9 units.

Originally Posted by Archer

Let's cut to the chase here Ellis! You state, "I'm always happy to help ANYONE who wants help." Normally the word "help" doesn't come with a price tag. Perhaps you misspoke? Let's be clear. Are you going to post this "new" method? If not will you sell this concept for the $50.00? You write, "But here's the thing! It only cost you $50 to find out if you like our forum or not." This whole thing now sounds like the classic "Bait and Switch."

Please don't view the above as an attack. You have every right to do as you please. I am just asking you to be clear. Can any of us get the rules of this method and if there is a cost, how much?

Archer>>>---------------------->

As usual it is difficult to get specific answers from Ellis. What else can one assume except it's all about the "hook."

A

Is it a good idea to join Ellis's club to learn to beat baccarat?. Or is there a better way to learn? Is it better to bet ties since they pay 8 to 1? I just want to get my money back from those casino crooks.

I did try that SAP last year when I was at Ellis' forum. I tested it manually and the result was not impressive at all. Those so called trend are not like Ellis's saying everyday. I don't believe "trend theory". It's no more than 50-50.

Hornybacprincess sounds like a "widowmaker' who just crossed over from classifieds to forums looking for her next prey..old men..If u really lost 2K... and lost every hand played ...u should just quit and stick with ur real profession..Life Insurance plans pays off much better than this game.

Originally Posted by John

Ellis not wanting to play the garnababy here.

BUT, you state follow what the shoe is doin', while I totally understand what you state and I'm not knocking this approach. If each outcome is random and previous results / patterns have no bearing whatsoever on future outcomes, where is the advantage in following what any shoe is doin' over any Mechancial approach.

Hi John: Yes you are correct in the overall scheme of things. But biases are biases. A bias is when things AREN'T working out 50/50.

Don't think so much in terms of shoes. Think more in terms of tables.

For example: And lets take a very common example that ANY experienced player is familiar with.

You are looking for the strongest bias in the casino. Suppose you find a table highly favoring chop. Suppose Opposites are running about 40 to 32 repeats on avg. every shoe. This is a highly common situation for ALL players of any experience. I've seen this situation thousands of times.

Is every play 50/50 now? I certainly don't think so. Do you? So, do you just sit there and bet opposites either flat bet or with some mild prog?

No, at least I wouldn't. Sure, you'll win but you are missing a good Exploit opportunity and there is ALWAYS the eventual surprise run. I would play SYS 40 as a base. Sys 40 favors Opposites but at the same time protects you from straight runs. It is a situational system.

It is called sys 40 because my playing partner Ann and I won 40 straight shoes in a row with it. As far as I know that is a record. At the very least it is MY record. But will a surprise 5 or 7 in a row hurt you with Sys 40? No, either one will actually HELP you. Yes, you are betting on opposites mostly. But you are also betting that every shoe will contain a 4 or more at some point. 499 out of 500 shoes DO so its a pretty darn good bet. Often its that run or two that wins the shoe for you.

Sys 40 is just one of many situational systems I teach.

What is the strongest bias of the table you are playing? If you don't know, you have no business at that table. There is a BEST system for every bias. If there is no bias you don't play. Otherwise you are merely gambling. And that is sick!

Originally Posted by Ellis

Hi John: Yes you are correct in the overall scheme of things. But biases are biases. A bias is when things AREN'T working out 50/50.

Don't think so much in terms of shoes. Think more in terms of tables.

For example: And lets take a very common example that ANY experienced player is familiar with.

You are looking for the strongest bias in the casino. Suppose you find a table highly favoring chop. Suppose Opposites are running about 40 to 32 repeats on avg. every shoe. This is a highly common situation for ALL players of any experience. I've seen this situation thousands of times.

Ellis must be forgiven here because he doesn't really mean 50/50. He is confused. By his own statements every decision is 50/50 since the chance of P or B occuring next hand is about 50/50. What he means is average compared to the normal "runs" in a shoe. Ellis considers that any shoe that doesn't have nearly the average runs overall has a bias.

Now he wants you to search for a table that shows "bias" EVERY shoe! Just stand around behind a table for 3 or 4 hours! If it doesn't occur just go to the next table and stand around for 3 or 4 hours. This is easy enough! This is exactly why Ellis has made millions of dollars and doesn't have to squeeze 50 bucks out of Baccarat players to make a living!

He has seen this situation thousands of times! Folks, you got to understand that Ellis hardly actually plays Baccarat! He plays maybe a handful of shoes a year. He looks for a choppy table or streaky table, sits and plays a chop method or streak method, if he wins he stays and tries to leave a winner. If he begins to lose he stops playing. Then he goes home, brags about a few units won and comes here to sell a new method!

Archer>>>>--------------------> Ouch! The truth hurts!

I wonder what made Archer so biased? Let see, there's jealousy and there's, there's.....

I've been playing this game successfully for 30 years. Before Archer could spell Baccarat. Archer just started after he gave up trying to win at BJ playing a way that I told him would lose in the first place.

Archer, if you are not playing a bias then what is your "advantage" bet you keep harping about. Exactly where did the advantage come from???

The FACT is you play biases too. That leaves you bad mouthing me solely for the sake of bad mouthing. Where did all this deranged hatred come from? I told you card counting in the shoe game would lose.

What are you going to tell us now? That you quit BJ because you were winning too much? Or that card counting was too hard? Christ, you could teach a baboon to card count. But the baboon would lose too.

Originally Posted by Ellis

I wonder what made Archer so biased? Let see, there's jealousy and there's, there's.....

I've been playing this game successfully for 30 years. Before Archer could spell Baccarat. Archer just started after he gave up trying to win at BJ playing a way that I told him would lose in the first place.

Archer, if you are not playing a bias then what is your "advantage" bet you keep harping about. Exactly where did the advantage come from???

The FACT is you play biases too. That leaves you bad mouthing me solely for the sake of bad mouthing. Where did all this deranged hatred come from? I told you card counting in the shoe game would lose.

What are you going to tell us now? That you quit BJ because you were winning too much? Or that card counting was too hard? Christ, you could teach a baboon to card count. But the baboon would lose too.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ - another boring post, Ellis. Still trying to bait me into a personal argument by making up stuff about me. Can't answer questions can you Ellis? But I will answer yours as always!

Advantage bets come from biases but in order to win long term WITHOUT guessing one must PREDICT the bias. This is academic.

Archer

Archer, forget Ellis and leave him alone. Can't you see that he just keeps ignoring or avoiding our question for him? Because he could not answer such question: how good the trend will remain, 1 out of 2 or, ah, yes, he said usually. I just can't stand a math teacher never speaks in a math way... well, I start to no more stand myself asking him the same question. Leave him alone Archer, and Ellis, please leave me alone too.

Originally Posted by Archer

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ - another boring post, Ellis. Still trying to bait me into a personal argument by making up stuff about me. Can't answer questions can you Ellis? But I will answer yours as always!

Advantage bets come from biases but in order to win long term WITHOUT guessing one must PREDICT the bias. This is academic.

Archer

If you change your word from "PREDICT" to "follow" then your sentence would make sense. There is no such thing as predicting without guessing unless your "prediction" is following something.

But then, at least in a small way, you're doing the same thing we are doing. But heaven forbid so you choose different semantics. Geez Archer, you are playing a bias plain and simple. Why can't you just say that in plain English. I KNOW that you've played long enough to know that biases exist. But then you'd have nothing to argue about.

ME get YOU into an argument? Geez Archer, every post you write is argumentative, defamatory, inflamatory, negative and totally lacking in contribution. That is why we didn't want you even on our public forum. You ALWAYS find something to argue about even if you have to play with semantics just to create an argument. You are just one great big argument everywhere you go. That's not what people want. What they want is substantive contributions which is what I was trying to do on this thread when you butted in with all your arguments. Geez, read what you wrote. You are a perfect Garnabby protege. A clone.

Originally Posted by Ellis

If you change your word from "PREDICT" to "follow" then your sentence would make sense. There is no such thing as predicting without guessing unless your "prediction" is following something.

But then, at least in a small way, you're doing the same thing we are doing. But heaven forbid so you choose different semantics. Geez Archer, you are playing a bias plain and simple. Why can't you just say that in plain English. I KNOW that you've played long enough to know that biases exist. But then you'd have nothing to argue about.

ME get YOU into an argument? Geez Archer, every post you write is argumentative, defamatory, inflamatory, negative and totally lacking in contribution. That is why we didn't want you even on our public forum. You ALWAYS find something to argue about even if you have to play with semantics just to create an argument. You are just one great big argument everywhere you go. That's not what people want. What they want is substantive contributions which is what I was trying to do on this thread when you butted in with all your arguments. Geez, read what you wrote. You are a perfect Garnabby protege. A clone.

Sorry Ellis, by PREDICT we all mean mathematical advantage. By FOLLOW we all mean we have no idea of mathematical advantage so we guess. Is that plain enough for you?

Arguments are important in order to discern fact from fiction. You can have your own opinion and I respect that but you cannot have your own facts. You make many contradicitons which I won't rehash here since most who care are already aware of them. But the main thing I think is to design a study which either proves or disproves your unsubstantiated theories.

What I find most disconcerting is that you, who claim to have a 160 IQ, and claim to have been a professor of mathematics have not put forth a simple study providing ANY credence. 80% of what you post are anecdotes and sales pitches.

So go ahead and explain here in a REAL public forum why you object to a study to show once and for all if trends follow trends more then not.

Oh, forgive me for being so argumentative and questioning the great master! We should all just send you $500.00 and keep our mouths shut lest you will be angry and not give us your latest system of the week.

Archer

Your first sentence is ridiculous. Buy a dictionary.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Your first sentence is ridiculous. Buy a dictionary.

So go ahead and explain here in a REAL public forum why you object to a study to show once and for all if trends follow trends more then not.

A

John, please correct me if I'm wrong about YOUR use of the word "template". Unfortunately there is no good semantics controls in Baccarat and different terms mean different things to different people. The template systems I've seen assure that you are playing randomly. Is this what you mean or are you using the word to mean something entirely different.

If so, yes, there are many such systems but they are a break even class of systems or "quit while you are ahead" systems. We call that playing in the blind because you are playing a specific way regardless what the shoe does. In my opinion any good system reacts to the shoe at hand.

Have you not played a table that stayed choppy all day or streaky all day or TB4L or OTB4L?

Have you never noted a specific casino trend like choppy in the morning turning to streak at night. Or casinos that are always streaky on Saturday night? Anything to give you an edge.

What you say is certainly true. Trends can reverse. There is no guarantee. But one trend cannot fade witout causing another trend to emerge. To me trends are very apparent. I'm still playing a mechanical system but I'm choosing the system that best matches the shoe at hand.

I also teach follow the shoe type systems that can be played at any table because the system itself is designed to automatically follow the trend of the shoe and doesn't much care what that trend is, like SAP, for instance or my newest system RD1n. Those are fine for small but consistent profits but probably their best feature is NO big losses because you are never found betting AGAINST a trend.

My view is that if there is an advantage to exploit, exploit it. If not, don't play or play one of our follow the shoe type systems.

I think the proof is in the pudding. I'm not seeing anyone else with consistent winning players. I just got a call last night from PJ playing in Tunica. Playing RD1n he was 5 for 5 averaging 12.5 units a shoe with a highest bet of only 4 units. He's up over $1500 his first day after commission at Gold Strike. Mind you, you can play ANY shoe at ANY table with that system. I'll bet right now that PJ continues to win this trip simply because he ALWAYS does.

You may recall PJ. He posted here about his 20 out of 20 trip at Gold Strike a few months back. He was so severely criticized for that post that he never posted on this forum again. Its the same with AD. Mark is up 1500 units playing RD1F23. I just don't see those kind of results anywhere on the internet or anywhere else. I mention these guys because they are all relatively new members. Hey, money talks. This game CAN be beat! But to each his own.

Originally Posted by Ellis

John, please correct me if I'm wrong about YOUR use of the word "template". Unfortunately there is no good semantics controls in Baccarat and different terms mean different things to different people. The template systems I've seen assure that you are playing randomly. Is this what you mean or are you using the word to mean something entirely different.

If so, yes, there are many such systems but they are a break even class of systems or "quit while you are ahead" systems. We call that playing in the blind because you are playing a specific way regardless what the shoe does. In my opinion any good system reacts to the shoe at hand.

Have you not played a table that stayed choppy all day or streaky all day or TB4L or OTB4L?

Have you never noted a specific casino trend like choppy in the morning turning to streak at night. Or casinos that are always streaky on Saturday night? Anything to give you an edge.

What you say is certainly true. Trends can reverse. There is no guarantee. But one trend cannot fade witout causing another trend to emerge. To me trends are very apparent. I'm still playing a mechanical system but I'm choosing the system that best matches the shoe at hand.

I also teach follow the shoe type systems that can be played at any table because the system itself is designed to automatically follow the trend of the shoe and doesn't much care what that trend is, like SAP, for instance or my newest system RD1n. Those are fine for small but consistent profits but probably their best feature is NO big losses because you are never found betting AGAINST a trend.

My view is that if there is an advantage to exploit, exploit it. If not, don't play or play one of our follow the shoe type systems.

I think the proof is in the pudding. I'm not seeing anyone else with consistent winning players. I just got a call last night from PJ playing in Tunica. Playing RD1n he was 5 for 5 averaging 12.5 units a shoe with a highest bet of only 4 units. He's up over $1500 his first day after commission at Gold Strike. Mind you, you can play ANY shoe at ANY table with that system. I'll bet right now that PJ continues to win this trip simply because he ALWAYS does.

You may recall PJ. He posted here about his 20 out of 20 trip at Gold Strike a few months back. He was so severely criticized for that post that he never posted on this forum again. Its the same with AD. Mark is up 1500 units playing RD1F23. I just don't see those kind of results anywhere on the internet or anywhere else. I mention these guys because they are all relatively new members. Hey, money talks. This game CAN be beat! But to each his own.

Yup, the proof is in the pudding. The operative word here is PROOF. Yet you expect people to adhere to your unkown ways without proof. Interesting.

I don't think people get severely criticized for winning Ellis. What is the point of posting winning trips if the poster does not elaborate on the method? (THAT'S A QUESTION ELLIS) Without explanation it is just another boast OR just another sales pitch.

Frankly, Ellis, I don't see "those kinds of results" here either! All I see is Ellis using other peoples wins to generate Ellis' income stream.

Archer >>>-----------------> Ouch!

hey Archer,

I just started playing on Black Orchid with a small amount of real money using BTC methods. I only started with real money because I don't remember the last time I've lost there.

I've started with 40 euros, after my first game I am at 53.45 euros. I am currently betting with a unit of 2 euros.

I could start a log in a thread here and we'll see over the weeks how I do. I'll provide the actual shoe, my high, low, quit, starting money, ending money. What do you think?

Originally Posted by Plasia

hey Archer,

I just started playing on Black Orchid with a small amount of real money using BTC methods. I only started with real money because I don't remember the last time I've lost there.

I've started with 40 euros, after my first game I am at 53.45 euros. I am currently betting with a unit of 2 euros.

I could start a log in a thread here and we'll see over the weeks how I do. I'll provide the actual shoe, my high, low, quit, starting money, ending money. What do you think?

Well I first wonder what the purpose of it all would be? But do as you please, Plasia, but not on my account. I do wish you all the luck. Without the games and the method it doesn't really help much or prove anything does it? Ellis demands the proof to be in the pudding, right?

This is the Internet and without verification everything must be held suspect. Don't you agree?

I certainly would not criticize you for it however.

Notice that most people here who have cared to post their results also posted their method. It's only the system sellers that don't. All others who do not care to post the method keep mum.

Archer