Open Challenge to Ellis (Part 2)

[Ellis]

Ha, you really know how to hurt a guy.

[garnabby]

All you guys are a joke. Fight fight fight is all there is on this forum. Garnabby bashes everyone like hes Gods gift to the world. Has he even posted anything worth reading? That man wants to bash everyone he can but he himself has not posted one thing that can help us out. I think Ellis and Garnabby are the same people arguing with each other. What do you think?

My god, finally a guy who calls it like HE sees it... i can live with that.

[garnabby]

"Moving forward", ADulay,

BTC reminds me a lot of the "Sham Wow" people. Let's take a look at what THEY'RE SELLING, one "sham" at a time.




SHAM 1. "Net betting".

POINT 1. Were Ellis able to achieve a 90% win-rate (, and were "lady luck" giving him a "blow job" every other game), to achieve the 19 wins out of every 20 games/shoes/whatever (, doesn't make that much difference)... why the heck not use a standard POSITIVE betting progression???

Or are they too concerned about their "spelling", my not disclosing when/where i'll next be playing, etc? ( Pendulum Baccarat by Harry Carmony , about ADulay advising us to not "buy into" any system whose creator can't reasonably spell, etc.)




POINT 2.

"Net betting" can be only a round-about way to "flat bet" too much... because one side of the betting progression, by its def'n, goes up while the other comes down, to mostly average out somewhere in the middle of it. Furthermore, even such a short betting progression (,were it still that by "net betting"), would only amount to betting it's averaged-out amount anyway, in the longer-run. So, and no matter the win-rate (as above), it's a non-starter. Except for someone who didn't even come up with that "optical illusion", "musical chair" explanation of it. (He plagiarised it, just like his "leave no child (player) behind" theme a while back... when See Jerek was given the same "brush-offs" Ellis gives to EVERYONE else who eventually gives up ON HIM.) It's just a good betting ploy for the lucky "suckers" to get to that membership fee faster, yet afford them enough play-time to still "think" it was skill.




POINT 3.

Here's why the rest of that "net betting" illusion (posted at BTC) will not work. Ellis "banks on" the fact that most will just not take the time read this sort of information, etc.

Wrt "net betting", if all the players at the baccarat table took off all the overlapping bets (of player and banker,) played the game, divvied up the overlap according to the outcome... then the commission on half the overlap would be spared, to be split among the players. (The casino would still win, but the commission would be somewhat cut for the players. And even doing that isn't really gaining ground because, according to game thoery, any field of opponents plays optimally individually if and only if also as a group... so it's more about not giving up ground in the first place. And playing 2 OR MORE spots, as Ellis' "net betting", can't bet, risk, more than playing one because the HEDGED overlap is just taken off the table. Ellis, himself, would have to "orchestrate" the very-unlikely cards for his two spots to "both" win, one on P while the other on B, their bigger bets.)

The idea of players saving some commission(s) by removing the overlapping bets, and passing those to the winner(s) after would be a good one were it allowed. (But would involve only the commission(s)... by paying one's self the overlapping bets, one doesn't lose that, but doesn't win it either.)

And logically, there's no point pretending one can be two or more separate players, to then play as one together. One player is already only one player... can never be two or more actual players, or then with twice or more the BR.

One player means one system... one can possess only one overall system, and ultimately be only one player. So just play your one best system yourself... cut out the "middlement", don't negate it by "playing it against its self", and use longer progressions (if that is your way) which aren't otherwise compromised.

In practice, "net betting" performs very well only when both sides of the betting progressions are "hitting", when each is the higher (of the two possible bets then). So, like any other scammish system, it does really well only when it's "hitting"... not most of the time when it's not.

************************************************** *****

NOTE: The original intent of this challenge was to present Ellis with something he alone could set out to expound, explain in his own words, HIMSELF. Not about "dares" involving the likes of "put your money where your mouth is", which done that way could never [prove/amount to] anything. (Proofs always involve the self, at least in the beginning.)

[ADulay]

Oh-oh. Watch out.

Garnabby's found the password to his mom's computer and he's cut and pasting all kinds of stuff while she's at work.

Man, when she finds out, you're gonna get a beating for sure!

Don't you have some homework to do or something constructive?

Oh yeah, I almost forgot my standard question. Where do you play baccarat?

AD

[sevenshooter]

.


The game of BJ has an inherent bias. The cards aren't random. Dealers are taught to pick up the mostly low break cards first putting a low card clump in the discard rack. Then the nonbreak cards putting a high clump in the discard rack. Then they are careful not to shuffle these clumps out of existence. High card clumps are shuffled with high clumps making even bigger clumps. The same with lows. All shuffle studies prove that. THAT IS WHY THE CASINOS HAVE MANY DIFFERENT STANDARD SHUFFLES. Why else?


Thats easy to prove too. Take a deck of cards and separate the highs from the lows. Put the 7s or less on the bottom and the 8 or mores on top. Now play a game of BJ. Guess what? The dealer NEVER breaks. Why? Because its impossible. Now do you see why the casino picks up the break cards first? The casinos have known this for 40 years and have been laughing all the way to the bank ever since. Basic strategy and card counting are completely destroyed and all gurus teaching them are playing right into the casinos hands. You lose!

LOOK! Basic Strategy beats random cards but the casinos are winning that game to the tune of 15% of the drop because THE CARDS AREN'T RANDOM! Players don't realize the casinos are cheating. - The dumb bastards.

Ellis is correct on this.

A decade ago,I was in Laughlin counting single decks using the AOII. Shuffle after shuffle, the count incredibly kept rising yet the high cards never came out. It took until I was twenty-thousand in the hole to figure this out.

[garnabby]

Ellis is correct on this.

A decade ago,I was in Laughlin counting single decks using the AOII. Shuffle after shuffle, the count incredibly kept rising yet the high cards never came out. It took until I was twenty-thousand in the hole to figure this out.

You're kidding, right?

Seriously, i for one have never seen that dealer procedure.

[sevenshooter]

You're kidding, right?

Seriously, i for one have never seen that dealer procedure.

I wish I were kidding, but it's true. Only happened to me in Laughlin. I went back there two years later and they were still doing it.

[Ellis]

Always cut differently with an experienced dealer. If you cut the same place every time, most dealers can put the tens on the bottom every time. That's pretty basic stuff for a good dealer.

[Ellis]

Hey AD, who do you want to be today? I'm getting tired of being me this long. I'll be you, you be me. Garnabby can be Archer. Same difference. Do we switch wives too?

[Ellis]

Oh-oh. Watch out.

Garnabby's found the password to his mom's computer and he's cut and pasting all kinds of stuff while she's at work.

Man, when she finds out, you're gonna get a beating for sure!

Don't you have some homework to do or something constructive?

Oh yeah, I almost forgot my standard question. Where do you play baccarat?

AD

Shame on you AD! Don't make fun of the handicapped.

[Ellis]

Sevenshooter, don't agree with me in Garnabby land. It boils his blood. Garbabby is entitled to his own opinion - and his own facts. All shuffles produce random cards in Garnabby land. Mountains of evidence to the contrary are wrong - in Garnabby land. Tip toe around here and pay no attention to the facts. You'll get along just fine.

[garnabby]

I wish I were kidding, but it's true. Only happened to me in Laughlin. I went back there two years later and they were still doing it.

If you follow Ellis' instructions in your quote of him, and deal out the deck (with the tens on top, and the low cards on the bottom; or versa), what happens?

The dealer hardly ever busts when the low cards are dealt, and never busts when the ten-value cards are dealt... BUT NOR DOES THE PLAYER, and that's what accounts for the house-edge in bj. (The asymmetry in bj is when both bust, the player always loses.)

So that sort of deck-compostion would result in no house-edge... both (player and house) would make a hand; or less-frequently, one or the other would make a hand. But almost never both busting, to give the house its edge.

More ELLIS-TALK... it "looks good" to the very-few vulnerable among us who just never look into stuff further, who are so-desperate that they almost need to just believe it.

Anyway, were "they still doing it", all the players would noticed (and perhaps put them out of business, with any possible (non-Ellis, of course,) counter-strategy a long time ago.

However, 99.998% of dealers are just simple folks who took a 2-year college dealer-certification course (to get their dealer's licences)... even for the handful of card-mechanics able to perform such "maneuvers", do you expect anyone to believe it would be worth any casino's while to bother hiring one of them to produce just such a non-randomized deck?

Not surprising too, another Ellis-story w/o any facts at all. Eg, which casino when, how many times did you perform your card-count, etc.

[garnabby]

Incidentally, whenever Ellis' "back is against the wall" in his own baccarat-forum... the first thing he writes, "I'm the boss here, if i want to talk bj instead, that's my right."

Doesn't matter to me, because his bj-stuff is even more-ridiculous... held back only by the sorry fact that it's ever so much more disasterous to they who fall for, and practice it. (Four paid members: him; Keith, who wouldn't mind being ADulay for a day; Suzzane, the $10-player, also who always wins; and Aegis, who doesn't even bother to make up stories of having played it.)

[ADulay]

Garn,

Sorry, I don't play blackjack.

Try again.

Oh yeah, don't knock the $10 tables. I made a good profit off of them all the while confirming that somebody else's ideas MIGHT be better than my own.

Anyway, no blackjack for me.

AD

[Ellis]

Its just an example of why clumped cards defeat B.S. by making the dealer break less than 28%. Of course the cards are never actually clumped that much. Basic Strategy is designed to a 28% dealer break rate. When Basic Strategy says stand with less than 17 it is depending on a 28% dealer break rate that does not exist in clumped cards. This is why perfect basic strategy actually loses when random math says it should win. On avg BS loses 15% of your buy in.

In clumped cards you, in fact, SHOULD hit more than BS calls for because You won't break as often as you would in random cards. In other words you are proving my point: Perfect Basic Strategy loses perfectly.

[thegeorgiahurricane]

Not to make a big deal out of Garn's $10 table comment, but I like $10 tables, especially if they have a good spread. My main table has a $10 min-$5,000 max. Also, when I was playing full-time I had a bankroll of 15k only. When I was making $150-200 day average that was plenty(beats the hell out of what I make now.) Anyway--I digress. Ill start another thread.

[Ellis]

Net betting in Baccarat is an excellent tool if you know how and when to use it. There are several uses not just Bank/Player. You were never on my private forum so you have no idea of when and how to use it. And when NOT to use it.

[sevenshooter]

[QUOTE=garnabby;18508]If you follow Ellis' instructions in your quote of him, and deal out the deck (with the tens on top, and the low cards on the bottom; or versa), what happens?

The dealer hardly ever busts when the low cards are dealt, and never busts when the ten-value cards are dealt... BUT NOR DOES THE PLAYER, and that's what accounts for the house-edge in bj. (The asymmetry in bj is when both bust, the player always loses.)

So that sort of deck-compostion would result in no house-edge... both (player and house) would make a hand; or less-frequently, one or the other would make a hand. But almost never both busting, to give the house its edge.

QUOTE]

Hi Garnabby,

Another way to look at it: Take a standard 52-card deck, put the Face-cards at the back and the small cards at the front. Normal penetration. Now deal the player and yourself (the house). What happens is the count increases rapidly so the counter is making max bets and yet getting stiffed. The dealer, on the other hand, is very rarely breaking on her bust cards. Doubling is a disaster and splitting a crime.

Dealers in Vegas and elsewhere in Nevada often take "counter"-measures. Some count along with the player and whenever the count is rising immediately reshuffle. Others are instructed by the pit to shuffle up whenever the player increases his bet above one unit (this can be used to the player's advantage!). Other dealers, still, and not very often, use a "false" shuffle to crush a counter's edge. When I was in Laughlin, I wasn't nickel and diming it -- I was playing between $200 - $1000 per hand. Unbeknownst to me at the time, the pit boss brought in a new dealer who was a card mechanic (a stoic-looking, middle-aged female, who would not engage my attempts at conversation) to clean me out. As experiences go, an eye-opener, for sure.

[garnabby]

Oh yeah, don't knock the $10 tables.

Why do they who "always win" play the $10-tables?

[ADulay]

Why do they who "always win" play the $10-tables?

Garn,

You have to start somewhere and if a $10 table is available, that's the one to make the live casino mistakes at. Once you get comfortable with real money at a real table in real time, move your wagers up to whatever you think a real gambler/player should be using.

AD

[garnabby]

Another way to look at it: Take a standard 52-card deck, put the Face-cards at the back and the small cards at the front. Normal penetration. Now deal the player and yourself (the house). What happens is the count increases rapidly so the counter is making max bets and yet getting stiffed. The dealer, on the other hand, is very rarely breaking on her bust cards. Doubling is a disaster and splitting a crime.

(I meant) Only if the players haven't long ago figured out to just keep drawing, even past 17... or to avoid such a game altogether.

Still, i can't "picture" the dealer scooping up the discards twice, or any of much of that going unnoticed for more than a few days. Regulators frequent the casinos too.

It would be easy to phone that casino, ask for the bj-crew, and ask which variants of it are being offered... likely not a single-deck, unless something like a $2-game? Then to enquire of the dealer's procedures in question here... to compare those with the gaming (Act and) Reg's of that jurisdiction. I mean, what sort of casino flagrantly risks its licence like that? The regulators will act if one casino becomes a threat to the public reputation of the others.

Or plain risks its business. Casinos really neither need nor want to cheat the losers, including a lot of so-called AP's, which make up by far their clientele. Doing so would soon result in a mass exodus to the competition. And the real winners... they'll just [harass/move on], or subtly cheat them enough by disputed plays, etc... usually before any "damage" has been done. (It's a lot safer and cheaper.)

... the pit boss brought in a new dealer (a stoic-looking, middle-aged, female mechanic) to clean me out. As experiences go, an eye-opener, for sure.

How do you know she was a "ringer"? I WAS "cheated at play" in a $20-bj game three games in a row, sued... and won. That's how something like that is established as evidence. (Judge's endorsement not posted.)

Bj's statistically-notorious for it's higher variances, whichever... and as much as it's a fairly-countable game, the cards could "conspire against" a player for a long time very well on their own. And you did lose only a few times... hardly enough to mean anything else. (Ever notice that when someone starts betting really big, a lot of the other players tend to leave the table, fearing being cheated?)

I too have had losing sessions, a couple of times at $25,000 in 10 minutes... but still i thanked the crew, as i left. One time, another player blurted out, "I wouldn't thank anyone for that beating." Which i didn't much appreciate either.

[garnabby]

Garn,

You have to start somewhere and if a $10 table is available, that's the one to make the live casino mistakes at. Once you get comfortable with real money at a real table in real time, move your wagers up to whatever you think a real gambler/player should be using.

AD

Talking to yourself again, ADulay?

[Ellis]

Incidentally, whenever Ellis' "back is against the wall" in his own baccarat-forum... the first thing he writes, "I'm the boss here, if i want to talk bj instead, that's my right."

Doesn't matter to me, because his bj-stuff is even more-ridiculous... held back only by the sorry fact that it's ever so much more disasterous to they who fall for, and practice it. (Four paid members: him; Keith, who wouldn't mind being ADulay for a day; Suzzane, the $10-player, also who always wins; and Aegis, who doesn't even bother to make up stories of having played it.)

My back is never against the wall on my forum Garnabby. Nobody's is. People are there to teach and to learn. Every sentence in your post is dead wrong. You just make stuff up to suit your own fantasies. That's fine when you are 6. Most grow out of it. I'll challenge you to a BJ duel anytime you like. Let's have a real challenge. Your bullshit won't help you at a real BJ table. Put your money where your mouth is as I do or forever shut up.

[ADulay]

Talking to yourself again, ADulay?

Garnabby,

Uh no. If you'll notice, that previously mentioned message was addressed to you. Not AT you, simply addressed TO you to answer your question.

Why are you always so defensive?

AD

[Ellis]

I don't get you at all Garnabby. In one sentence you are saying that casinos would never cheat, licenses and all that crap and then in the very next sentence you say you sued the casino for cheating 3 games in a row. How can you possibly justify that? Are you saying that YOU are the only one ever cheated? Don't you realize that if YOU caught them it must be rampant?

I've caught them red handed many, many times but I'm not halfway naive enough to think those were the only times they ever cheated.

Geez, I caught them red handed cheating galore a table of ladies in a green game at Foxwood. They were even hitting 8's if it was good for the house. My wife was in the game and came over and got me. I watched the game from afar and the dealer was cheating on half the hands. Who do you complain to, the Indians or the State of CT who both get millions from the biggest casino in the world.

I caugt them red handed cheating in a green BJ game at Caesars Vegas. They were turning the dealer's highest card up instead of his first card. You can't beat a Bahama hole card game and its rampant in Vegas and in the islands. The pit boss told the casino mgr he taught ALL his dealers to do that. They gave the money back but what about the rest of the tables??? And how many years had they been doing that BEFORE I caught them at it??? And who taught the pit boss? So what do you do sue Nevada? They get billions from those casinos. Look what happened to Kenny Uston when he sued them. Why don't they simply deal the first dealer card up like in AC? Why do they give all their dealers the opportunity to cheat when dealing the first card down, then turning it over just serves to slow the game down. It makes no sense whatsoever except to cheat.

Thats just two examples. I have hundreds.

How could a grown man be so naive?

I don't believe you actually are. I think you just like to start arguments.

[Ellis]

For you, its not about winning or losing play methods. It's about winning or losing arguments. You don't care which is the right side of an argument. Whichever side I'm on, you pick the other. I think everyone here is smart enough to know that we can't possibly actually disagree on EVERYTHING. Yet it ALWAYS ends up that way. Don't you realize people see right straight through all that. You can't be THAT naive. It's impossible.

I say a certain car goes 160MPH. You immediately say that's impossible due to hydroplaning. But, I'll bet that if I had said cars can't go 160 you would immediately have looked up 25 cars that can.

Frankly I don't see any point in being on any forum you are on. Its not only a waste of my time, its a waste of everyone's.

So if your goal was to get rid of me so you can lord it over everyone with all your made up BS, fine, you win.

[Ellis]

Anyone who wants to learn my winning methods, either game, I'll be at beatthecasino.com. Anyone who wants to learn Garnabby's, he doesn't have any. He doesn't even play. Back when he did play, he lost. How do I know that beyond all doubt? Because if he won, he'd still be playing. I still play. This guy has the worst case of sour grapes I ever saw.

[Archer]

Dealers in Vegas and elsewhere in Nevada often take "counter"-measures. Some count along with the player and whenever the count is rising immediately reshuffle. Others are instructed by the pit to shuffle up whenever the player increases his bet above one unit (this can be used to the player's advantage!). Other dealers, still, and not very often, use a "false" shuffle to crush a counter's edge. When I was in Laughlin, I wasn't nickel and diming it -- I was playing between $200 - $1000 per hand. Unbeknownst to me at the time, the pit boss brought in a new dealer who was a card mechanic (a stoic-looking, middle-aged female, who would not engage my attempts at conversation) to clean me out. As experiences go, an eye-opener, for sure.

I've had dealers switched on me in Nevada. My guess is that they recognized me "lurking" and were afraid of back counting. I didn't suspect the dealer of cheating though. It seemed to me that they would just use fast dealers to try intimidate. Didn't work. I have been keeping the count so long I can't NOT count - it's just automatic. Even now. It's like riding a bike.

However, the "preferential shuffle" is much more common and easier for the casino to employ then to train or hire card "prodigies." I've seen that happen a million times.

As far as non-random cards go I think we tend to confuse random with average. Clumped cards occur randomly. Sure the count can go sky high with hardly any tens showing. Happens all the time. When I saw "extreme" clumps I would take some guess measures and change my strategy. I think it worked to increase my edge.

It took Foxwoods about 7 years before they finally restricted my play. I rarely play BJ anymore. Once a casino knows your face your finished. Besides - such a grind game and it takes a LOT of focus to win.

I still enjoy playing in LV when I go there because they don't know me. I can have some fun at the lower limit tables - try to hit and run.

I recall Keith gave me a copy of BJ 101, NBJ, and WCBJ. There are some interesting ideas and tools in those manuals which I think Ellis refers to as "books". Information is good but all that stuff is just guess stuff. Not any mathematical way to play. It can easily become so convoluted that one doesn't know night from day.

I always liked to keep it simple. Keep a count, keep player numbers to a minimum as to not share the good parts of the shoe with others; test the waters during high plus or minus counts; try to keep the rent to a minimum and try not to attract attention.

Thanks for listening.

Archer

[Archer]

Oh, I almost forgot a good story. One time I almost quit BJ. I forgot all about this. It took me about 3 months playing part time to win $12,000.00 one season (I don't play in the summer). One night I went in and lost my cool and blew the whole 12k in about 4 hours!

I was so distraught I was in tears. Without discipline one cannot win.

A

[Archer]

Anyone who wants to learn my winning methods, either game, I'll be at beatthecasino.com. Anyone who wants to learn Garnabby's, he doesn't have any. He doesn't even play. Back when he did play, he lost. How do I know that beyond all doubt? Because if he won, he'd still be playing. I still play. This guy has the worst case of sour grapes I ever saw.

LOL - Ellis still trolling for that . . . Is it still $50.00 a month Ellis? Please answer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's always good to tell people the price up front.

A