Thread: Open Challenge to Ellis (Part 2)

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Wow, Ellis, that's some pretty-intense claptrap... what am i supposed to make of it? Do you still feel the same today as when you "pounded that out"?

Sorry for not getting around to this sooner, but i was busy with stuff like enjoying my holidays, etc... and working some baccarat-breakthroughs of my own. (So exciting to see some real work "blossom" into something special.)

Anyway, here it is as promised a few months ago... ONE THREAD DEVOTED ENTIRELY TO ELLIS, any of the other system-scammers, or anyone else with an issue regarding THE TRUTH.

I know how much Ellis, for one, likes to "defend himself" (against that "bit-of-an-*ssh*l* garnabby")... but how good is he, or anyone else here, with defending THE TRUTH?

Over my past year here and there in the search for some more of THE TRUTH, but mostly on Mike's forum (, and now that Ellis has more posts here than myself, it's hardly "garnabby's board" anymore), i can honestly tell everyone that the same basic principle applies: about getting back what is put into something. And of course, THE TRUTH remains THE TRUTH, past/future, or present... and there's a lot of the past around here to check out.

I don't know, i guess i'm very happy with this "exposure". If anything, enjoying it too much. Just think... not a single person "laid a glove on me" the whole time, though i seem to recall being "creased" a time or two. Lol, people are people anywhere, including myself; and again, "a job is a job"... no matter where, or who's. As i'm sure to which many of the other regulars on any of the gaming/gambling boards can attest... specifically, watching the evolving motives/ploys of one another. (It's almost amazing to to watch some of us, past and present... "skating around, circling like Syl Apps, until finally deciding to come out with it, whatever".)

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OKAY BOYS, AND GIRLS, the big moment we've all been waiting for... allow me to "cast the first stone".

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Here's the original challenge to Ellis, placed on his own "beloved" beatthecasinoforums.com last February; and the link to that thread in this forum:

" Progressing LOGICALLY from one useless ("free stuff") system to an other doesn't validate the other. Eg, the fact no one often plays 1,2,3,4,5,6,&7 on the Super-7 lottery (numbers 1 to 49) doesn't make that outcome any less likely. In fact, it's therefore one of the best choices because there would be most likely no one else to share the prize. (Because there is no REASON that pick, or pattern of picks from lottery to lottery, is (more or) less likely than any other pick, this only illustrates the true as-unlikeliness of any of the other possible picks.)

Any winning system in any game must be also GROUNDED by some identifiable and PROVABLE well-defined element(s) which work in also PRACTICE, not solely by others' joining-fees. Where are those mathematical/physical characteristics in, and proofs for, any of the "free stuff"? (For egs, which probabilities are involved where??) Simply digging a deeper hole won't begin an other, perhaps better way to this end (, isn't thinking also laterally.)

This is MY open challenge to the self-styled Ellis, at Beat the Casino Forums, as simultaneously posted on baccaratforums.com. Everyone, let's check out his reply also there: from one as "schooled", all the answers ought to flow like water from the tap."

My Open Challenge to Ellis at Beat the Casino Forums

You won't find it there at BTC, it was quickly deleted after some really funny responses on his part. Would he have deleted his only proof of the "evil garnabby", were it so, to be left with the strange stuff we've witnessed lately?

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Well, a little more time tonight, got around to some of the other lastest posts... .

I must say, "... you and Ellis should stop fighting, youze each have good input" to be a bit of a slur. Who's kidding whom... don't know the difference, or just trying to play both ends of the street?

Found what i was looking for, and had some fun while getting there... probably a good way to motivate one's self, come to think of it. Likely there's nothing more, w/i reason, to be learned... so why am i here. Yes, to clean up some "odds and ends", repay some favors (, and possibly write some of my best posts yet... i mean, i've learned a lot about just about everything on any of these boards, so would really like to pull it all together, "flesh it out" in a few posts NO ONE could challenge. But i'll be STAYING AS LONG AS MIKE WILL ALLOW IT, to "finish off" the scammers as they arise, in whichever form... yes, in that sense, the "evil garnabby". (Be careful what you still wish for, even late in life, Ellis.)

Why should/ought i, or anyone else, put in the time and hard work in response to the endlessly-droning, "Me, me, me; i want it now, fill me up; but BTW, what a "stupid *ss" so-and-so was for bothering. Hey eg, good going there, chipup... that's what we get for helping you out.

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TA, so i'm a "jerk" for reminding/telling the forum when Ellis' (deliberate) "interruptions" were in jest? Especially when you seem to not "know the difference" either? Do you realize you also indirectly called the Wizard a "jerk"... after all, the Wizard did just then refer to such system-scammers as "vermin".

That's life, my "friend"... can't always pick and choose your spots. At least i didn't cry, "Mike!"

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ADulay, another complete moron i gave up on almost from the start, i already posted: my first university degree; my own "basic" way of thinking wrt baccarat; a lot of tips only someone who has actually played it would know; all of my relevant personal/professional history (on one board or another over the last year); tried to help others help themselves (, lol,) at absolutely no other compensation for myself; etc. What have you got from that last 100 shoes won in a row, where's your $100,000... show us a picture of that!

Who the h*ll are you, if not Ellis? How many persons on the face of this planet win 19 out of 20 anything... a 100,000 to 1 shot, and over and over (even with an impossible 75% win-rate)? And that's your only post, over and over and over again, punctuated by the odd car/plane/military-picture (, the car Ellis shall never have BTW). And that strange, cult-obsession/"hard-on" with me. Are you writing those lengthy and meaningless Ellis' ads for the fun of it?

I don't care who comes and goes, nor for which reasons... again, that's life. If Grabby (Fools') Gold, malcop/john1234, and other useless-poster litogage want to "take it out on Mike" to (try to) "get back at" me... what can i say/do for them? If Mike's board ever closes down for good... that's life, but get on with your own. Because it's at least it's not my time that's being wasted anymore.

You email me about calling you, or versa, to "move forward"... what the h*ll is that about? Do you think that's even a consideration? That's your "job", Ellis, to go around calling everyone, trying to get "your finger up their *sses". Your not the "boss over anyone"... if i want others to know something person-specific about myself, i'll be the first to tell them.

You're the one making the "big, far-fetched (to any thinking person) claims", not me... but am i the only one here with any REAL evidence/proof of anything?

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Mike, here's an idea... would it make sense to move any and all "bickering" to this one, single thread? Threads and/or posts, where each contains mostly that.

As the longest-standing regular poster here, one would surmise that i'll be drawing the most of that "heat" anyway.

Wonder to whom the bulk of those belong, even given the immediately aforesaid. (Maybe i'm still the leader in the number of real posts?)

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Finally, Ellis,

If someone wants to pay you a lot of money for a lot of "run-around"... i'd be the last to care. People get what they deserve, also that's life... . Were i as "evil" as you want the "either-or" thing to play out, i'd be just sitting here relishing the fact that all you guys will never have a "pot to piss in" between youzes.

Garnabby,

Two things.

1. I never called you, Ellis, the Wizard, or anyone's grandma a jerk. I simply said you guys were acting like children and it's time for it to stop. Especially this he said she said shit on threads about strategy or mm. They are constantly being ruined.

2. I think a challenge is good. But not not extend it to everyone on this forum. Not to prove that just Ellis cannot overcome the house edge, but that none of us cannot over the house edge. Every strategy we propose, whether its bet selection, money management, voodoo.. in baccarat, unless you're counting subsets, it's all the same. You yourself have claimed to be able to overcome the house edge, why don't you post your revelation here and win the challenge.

TheArchitect

Yeah Garnaby, Show us what you got. Post that winning method you have. I know you can do it

Well I read and read and read and read but I saw no challenge. Did he post it yet? Maybe he forgot what he was saying. I sure did.

Originally Posted by TheArchitect

Garnabby,

Two things.

1. I never called you, Ellis, the Wizard, or anyone's grandma a jerk. I simply said you guys were acting like children and it's time for it to stop. Especially this he said she said shit on threads about strategy or mm. They are constantly being ruined.

2. I think a challenge is good. But not not extend it to everyone on this forum. Not to prove that just Ellis cannot overcome the house edge, but that all of cannot over the house edge. Every strategy we propose, whether its bet selection, money management, voodoo.. in baccarat, unless you're counting subsets, it's all the same. You yourself have claimed to be able to overcome the house edge, why don't you post your revelation here and win the challenge.

1.

Originally Posted by TheArchitect

I'm contacting Mike and asking him to either make a sub forum that is for you two to jerk each other off on there or to have you guys banned for a week.

Who "jerks each other off" but 'jerks'???

Oh, now that i re-read that bit of diatribe on your own part, are you kidding... "banned for a week". Talk about "grandma's".



2. "... why don't you post your revelation here and win the challenge."

That one's a bit harder, but not much. Maybe i've already taken the real ($30,000) challenge, myself... and had it "hushed up", as per the adjoining agreement there; maybe i want the casino's money more; maybe i realize that anything "out there" will very likely never work in any casino anymore to any degree; maybe i don't care who believes anything i write; maybe i was wrong about the whole thing; maybe because every losing casino-player is cheering for the other side (to justify their own problems, but likely never noticed by Ellis); maybe i was about to post it, but something came up a couple of times... and i took to wondering, why do that (under the circumstances); maybe to keep'em "stewing", like the really hard-up Ellis's who still think they're going to get everything for nothing, lol; maybe i'm not another "nut" claiming some pie-in-the-sky "Holy Grail", pretending to take over the billion-dollar forex markets any time soon; maybe i was more interested in beating this game than anything else, well as actually using the results of (, in that order); maybe the scientific process i began, even as-is, shows something in that direction already; maybe someone else "wised me up"; maybe it's that new, i haven't had time to hit the send-button on the final draft; maybe i was the only one ever concerned with anything being backed up with something real, even on the more-serious so-called AP-sites... so already had that "conversation" with myself, and "lost but won" at the same time.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Well I read and read and read and read but I saw no challenge. Did he post it yet? Maybe he forgot what he was saying. I sure did.

Last time around, he "couldn't find the questions behind all the punctuation"... lol, i replied that the questions were the sentences ending in 'question marks'.

Hey there sillE (losing all that business), why not re-post what you deleted... if you keep those posts, as you claimed earlier.

"See you" tomorrow Ellis, gotta go. (No i'm not watching you right now.)

What happened, you used to be so full of "sh*t"... your cat(s) got your tongue?

Let me try a rewrite of your post so that it is answerable.

Rewrite:

Ellis, is there a way to mathematically verify your approach?

End of rewrite

How's that?

WOW. I didnt learn anything from this thread

Originally Posted by graylove

WOW. I didnt learn anything from this thread

The one guy i left out of it... didn't take long, from the guy who keeps telling us how great Ellis is, but doesn't know a single reason to back it up.

If you're not littogage "re-incarnated"... you're his brother.

Like Archer wrote a long time ago, "Too many shills around here."

Originally Posted by garnabby

ADulay, another complete moron i gave up on almost from the start, i already posted: my first university degree; my own "basic" way of thinking wrt baccarat; a lot of tips only someone who has actually played it would know; all of my relevant personal/professional history (on one board or another over the last year); tried to help others help themselves (, lol,) at absolutely no other compensation for myself; etc. What have you got from that last 100 shoes won in a row, where's your $100,000... show us a picture of that!

Who the h*ll are you, if not Ellis? How many persons on the face of this planet win 19 out of 20 anything... a 100,000 to 1 shot, and over and over (even with an impossible 75% win-rate)?

Garnabby,

There you go again. I elect to stay away from posting anything on this board and you bring up my name again. Are you really that dense? You just posted up multiple paragraphs of nothing.

Is it so hard for you to realize that people can and do win in the casino? Maybe YOU don't, but I'll assure you there are many that do.

You don't believe the 19 out of 20 shoes? I'm mad that I couldn't make it 20 out of 20 because I know it can be done rather easily. I'm currently working on my THIRD session towards the 20 out of 20. The last two ended miserably with the previously mentioned 19 out of 20 TWICE.

You want me to post up pictures of piles of money or what? Wouldn't that be kind of crass, especially to the more civilized players here on this board? But if it will give you a big thrill, I'll do it, especially if it will shut you up, but I know it won't. You'll make up some kind of reason that it's all Photoshopped or something. What? You don't keep a pile of $100 bills on the shelf, just for casino play? I do. And that's all that money is used for. It's just casino money.

I've answered every single one of your inane requests, countered your made up facts with true and verifiable results and information and still you refuse to believe any of it and therefore IN YOUR OWN MIND, it's all lies, at least to you.

So, I'll ask you one more time, in front of everyone here, in your own thread, what do you want to see from me to convince you that I am currently winning in the casino?

The second question, which I've asked repeatedly, WHERE DO YOU PLAY BACCARAT AT?

I'll skip the obvious third question of "Do you actually play the game" as anyone with your vast knowledge and ability to quote made up facts from your own mind MUST be an expert on the game, especially in the casino.

Face it. You're just a wannabe player who still thinks the Holy Grail is going to show up in your email inbox.

Get over it. You've obviously lost in the casino at one time and cannot stand to see anyone else win. In your eyes, we're all liars and cheats unless we crawl out of the casino on our hands and knees, beat up from the baccarat gods that nobody can possibly beat.

I'm headed to the casino on Saturday. How about you?

AD

Originally Posted by Ellis

Let me try a rewrite of your post so that it is answerable.

Rewrite:

Ellis, is there a way to mathematically verify your approach?

End of rewrite

How's that?

Try re-writing your bacc-game. Like "random on random"... well, i don't know what else for you to try.

Originally Posted by ADulay

Garnabby,

There you go again. I elect to stay away from posting anything on this board and you bring up my name again. Are you really that dense? You just posted up multiple paragraphs of nothing.

Is it so hard for you to realize that people can and do win in the casino? Maybe YOU don't, but I'll assure you there are many that do.

You don't believe the 19 out of 20 shoes? I'm mad that I couldn't make it 20 out of 20 because I know it can be done rather easily. I'm currently working on my THIRD session towards the 20 out of 20. The last two ended miserably with the previously mentioned 19 out of 20 TWICE.

You want me to post up pictures of piles of money or what? Wouldn't that be kind of crass, especially to the more civilized players here on this board? But if it will give you a big thrill, I'll do it, especially if it will shut you up, but I know it won't. You'll make up some kind of reason that it's all Photoshopped or something. What? You don't keep a pile of $100 bills on the shelf, just for casino play? I do. And that's all that money is used for. It's just casino money.

I've answered every single one of your inane requests, countered your made up facts with true and verifiable results and information and still you refuse to believe any of it and therefore IN YOUR OWN MIND, it's all lies, at least to you.

So, I'll ask you one more time, in front of everyone here, in your own thread, what do you want to see from me to convince you that I am currently winning in the casino?

The second question, which I've asked repeatedly, WHERE DO YOU PLAY BACCARAT AT?

I'll skip the obvious third question of "Do you actually play the game" as anyone with your vast knowledge and ability to quote made up facts from your own mind MUST be an expert on the game, especially in the casino.

Face it. You're just a wannabe player who still thinks the Holy Grail is going to show up in your email inbox.

Get over it. You've obviously lost in the casino at one time and cannot stand to see anyone else win. In your eyes, we're all liars and cheats unless we crawl out of the casino on our hands and knees, beat up from the baccarat gods that nobody can possibly beat.

I'm headed to the casino on Saturday. How about you?

AD

Second verse... same as the first.

OK, I just went back and tried to find the "challenge".

Can anybody point me to it?

AD (it's a simple question)

Originally Posted by garnabby

Second verse... same as the first.

Not very original AND you didn't answer any of the questions!

Your move. I did my part.

AD

Originally Posted by ADulay

Not very original AND you didn't answer any of the questions!

Your move. I did my part.

AD

Suurrrrreeeee you did.

I will begin adding all the good "tidbits" from Ellis tomorrow, myself... as he continues to appear to be you. Or are you that dim-witted Aegis, lol.

Question:
Ellis, is there a way to mathematically verify your approach?

Answer:
No, I don't believe there is a mathematical solution to Baccarat. As I keep saying, All mechanical systems are eventually break even regardless how clever, how steep or how shallow you design your progression. Then there's commission.

I have posted my approach here several times. All the approaches I teach involve identifying a bias, finding the strongest bias in the casio and matching that bias to the best variation of the system that beats that bias best. You can't assign a Player Advantage to it because your PA depends entirely on the strength of the bias you find.

It would be like finding a mathematical solution to golf.

Sorry Garnabby but I have been very consistent with that approach on this forum as well as my own forum. Check out the last instruction I recommended to a player just this morning. You'll quickly see that it totally agrees with my overall Baccarat philosophy as all my posts do.

I feel left out--you dont have at least a little verbal abuse left for me?

This whole outburst (Garnabby's) sounds like nothing more than sour grapes to me. I suspect it sounds that way to everyone still here.

So Architect, did I stick to my promise???

Garnabby, I'm through with this thread. There's just nothing more to say.

Originally Posted by garnabby

Suurrrrreeeee you did.

I will begin adding all the good "tidbits" from Ellis tomorrow, myself... as he continues to appear to be you. Or are you that dim-witted Aegis, lol.

Oh My god. I'm attempting to have an intelligent conversation with Garnabby. What the heck was I thinking.

The man never answers any questions. Has no qualifications or experience and then expects everyone to just understand everything he posts as gospel.

You win, I'll just monitor the lies as they come out.

Be sure and let us know where you play at, please?

Oh? You don't actually PLAY baccarat? Then why are you posting up all your nonsense on this board?

Ah yes, that craving for attention. Congratulations! Youv'e got it. Everyone is now asking the same questions as me. Do you even play the game of baccarat?

So, everyone, what do you think the chances are that Garn will actually tell us where he plays? Oh that's right, he doesn't play so there's no need to answer that one.

AD

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

I feel left out--you dont have at least a little verbal abuse left for me?

Georgiahurricane,

He can't abuse you yet as you haven't declared that you're winning the least amount at baccarat. As soon as you post that up, you'll be on the hit list for "advertising" Black Orchid casino or something.

Not to worry, he'll make something up sooner or later.

And whatever you do, do NOT agree with any post from Ellis or you will be banned from Garnabby World!

AD

Well I promised not to say more but I'll change the direction of this thread in Garnabby's defense.

We all know that Garnrabby does not play out of personal choice. But what does a non player have to go by? The internet. And the entire internet Baccarat world is about what? A mathematical solution. Mechanical systems. The same with BJ and card counting. That is all you hear or see on the internet no matter where you go. Even here. Garnabby is right about that. They don't work. Who is his big hero? The Wizzard. Why? Because the Wizzard also says the same thing - there are no mathematical solutions.

What Garnabby fails to realize is that I am also saying the same thing. He's preaching to the choir. He sees me as a system seller and all system sellers are scammers. I don't sell systems. I teach approaches. I agree with him about system sellers and have been fighting them for 25 years. He just doesn't realize that we are on the same side of that argument.

My first books are BJ books I wrote in the early '90s. The title of my first book is New Blackjack which has come to be known as "NBJ" - not the NBJ System. That book, along with all my books is anti system - Anti Basic Strategy - Anti card counting.

Garnabby puts himself in the untenable position of saying systems work in BJ but not in Baccarat. No, no, no! Systems don't work period. He got that from the internet too.

The game of BJ has an inherent bias. The cards aren't random. Dealers are taught to pick up the mostly low break cards first putting a low card clump in the discard rack. Then the nonbreak cards putting a high clump in the discard rack. Then they are careful not to shuffle these clumps out of existence. High card clumps are shuffled with high clumps making even bigger clumps. The same with lows. All shuffle studies prove that. THAT IS WHY THE CASINOS HAVE MANY DIFFERENT STANDARD SHUFFLES. Why else?

Don't argue with me. Its very easy to prove. On a satyrday night simply count highs following highs and lows following lows. It would be 50/50 if the cards were random. Not even close. Don't argue - try it and you'll know.

So how does this effect the game? It reduces the dealer break rate GREATLY and B.S. is based on a 28% dealer break rate that NEVER happens. The casino rules see to it. You lose.

Thats easy to prove too. Take a deck of cards and separate the highs from the lows. Put the 7s or less on the bottom and the 8 or mores on top. Now play a game of BJ. Guess what? The dealer NEVER breaks. Why? Because its impossible. Now do you see why the casino picks up the break cards first? The casinos have known this for 40 years and have been laughing all the way to the bank ever since. Basic strategy and card counting are completely destroyed and all gurus teaching them are playing right into the casinos hands. You lose!

So how do you beat that game? Easy! Do you know what a "tell" is? Well highs following highs and lows folowing lows most of the time is the strongest tell in the whole casino. It TELLS you how to play. That is what NBJ is about. The first 40 pages of NBJ and WCB are available for free download at my site, beatthecasino.com. Those books teach you the best way to take full advantage of that tell.

Now, I've told you before: I hold the best record in BJ of all time. I played AC full time for 3 years W/O a losing day. Now that you know just one of my secrets it doesn't sound so far fetched any more does it. And there lots more secrets to my play that are just as strong- many stronger.

LOOK! Basic Strategy beats random cards but the casinos are winning that game to the tune of 15% of the drop because THE CARDS AREN'T RANDOM! Players don't realize the casinos are cheating. - The dumb bastards.

Now, in Baccarat the casinos went from 3% of the drop in the early '90s to 26% of the drop today. Commission accounts for 1.25% of the money bet. I'm not stupid. Are you?

When you gamble the FIRST thing you need to know is exactly what you are up against. Don't be so damn naive.

So do you see why I don't trust casinos? Neither should you. I know how they do it in BJ. I don't know how they do it in Bac. It doesn't matter. The biases are there just as they are in BJ. Casinos aren't stupid. They couldn't even afford to deal the game for commission only.

Garnabby, as distasteful as it may seem to you, we are on the same side. Stop harrassing me. It makes you look like a complete idiot. You are harrassing yourself!

Look, card counting worked back in the days of James O Thorp and single deck BJ with no cut off card. It worked to the tiny tiny Player Advantage of 0.5%. That is precisely why the casinos counter measured with multideck BJ with a cut off card. Card counting has not worked since. Counting instructors KNOW that full well. That's why you NEVER see them playing in a casino. The biggest proponents of Basic Strategy and Card Counting are the casinos themselves. They have seminars right in the casinos. They give out Basic Strategy cards right at the tables for the asking. They sell card counting books in their gift shops. How could you be so naive? I have canvassed the entire internet. Out of thousands of card counters they can't produce a single bottom line winner at the end of the year. EVERYONE is on the wrong side of their "standard deviation".

That is why you'll find me playing in the casino both BJ and Bac, right along side my students. That is also why you'll NEVER find the card counting gurus there. They know to stay away from casinos. That ought to tell you something!

Yeah, yeah, I know that card counting is supposed to be so difficult that only geniuses and MIT students can do it. That's a myth! You could teach a Baboon to card count. But he would lose too.

Nobody counts faster or better than I do. I can count down a deck in 13 seconds and tell you what card you removed and I know more about what the count means than most counters. I gave it an honest try. It was the only time I lost in my entire gaming career. At -$40,000 in 2 months I went right back to NBJ, much the wiser for my efforts. What a relief that was!

I wouldnt cut down the card counting yet. So far the counting of the famous group of 13 is doing good. I look into everyones theroys and this is one that is still holding its ground. The wizard and Thorp may say NO to card counting on Bac. But counting is holding its ground in my past shoes and I will keep up the testing as long as it stays ahead.

You know what everyone? I feel good right know. I am going online and make a quick buck. I feel good right know. Im gonna do it. Im gonna beat em up. Thanks and have a great day

Right Graylove. I should have made it clear that I was only referring to Card Counting in BJ. The jury is still out on Card Counting in Bac. I've already done more than my fair share. I'll leave that up to you young wipper snappers. I wish you the best of luck!

So what your saying is counting cards looses in the long run? You should know, Your the pro. Your input is very inportant to me and everyone else. Im not here to fight against the players, Im here to fight against the casinos

All you guys are a joke. Fight fight fight is all there is on this forum. Garnabby bashes everyone like hes Gods gift to the world. Has he even posted anything worth reading? That man wants to bash everyone he can but he himself has not posted one thing that can help us out. I think Ellis and Garnabby are the same people arguing with each other. What do you think?