Leo System (Still on Trial)

[player]

Hi

Leonard said:

New shoe: Please see which one have 6 wins 1st and back it for the entire shoe. Note: Pls make sure the difference between banker and player should not be more than 3. 2 is the ideal one.

and than he said:

I make a mistake in the difference banker and player. The ideal is 4.

What is now correct?

If is 2 ideal and not more than 3,than P6 B3,P6 B4,P6 B5 is correct,but if is 4 ideal,than P6 B1,P6 B2,P6 B3 is correct?

I don't understand,can someone explain what is this 4 ideal?

Thank you.

[leonardong79]

hi player!

The ideal one is P6 B3 or P6 B4. Another way if you guys are interested, I tried to guess the next one using the same system as I dun tend to get four wrong in a rows, my guess is at 45% right, 48% wrong, 7% draw. I can get to win the more sets in a shoe. I just do it for two short sessions and get pretty gd results too. +25 to +40 per shoe in a 8 decks (but they stop at 6 decks). Still limit the loss at 4 wrongs in a row. This is for people who can't stay too long in the casino.

And some of you mention about choosing the wrong one, eg bet P and appears like this BBB P BBB P, yes it does appears but it does not appear often and usually end at the above mentioned trends.

I have to say that there is no 100% winning system, either in Baccarat or Black jack. The system is to assist you to a higher winning rate and it still depends how you use it. I believe in two areas, Planning & Discipline are very important.

Planning involves setting financial planning, goal planning and winning planning. Discipline involves follow through the planning and mind control. If your EQ is not high enough, you tends to get over emotional which resulted poor judgement. Discipline includes, the importance of proper resting, having a gd state of mind.

I have read that some people in this forum claimed that their systems were working very well for 3 to 5years before they lost everything back to the casino. Then they claimed that we should not play at all and all systems will eventually failed. But if their systems were working for 3 to 5 years, to me the system should be good enough. I think the problems lie with the player itself. They did not mentioned how they lost their money with their system. It could be they bend their own rules or simply too greedy and started making stupid mistakes.

Well, some people could agree with me and some disagree with me. I still feel that with gd planning and discipline accompanied by a proper system, I can making some money and limit loss to reduce financial damage.

Lastly, any questions will be answered after 16 Feb. I wish all people here a Happy Chinese New Year.

Cheers,
Leo

[leonardong79]

Hi Guys! As you all can see , I trying improve my system and based on my real live action with the online dealer, I am +470 units up from 60 shoes, averaging +7.849 per shoe without any loss yet. Still going to experiment with the new version of mine. Will update you guys.

Meanwhile you can use my original system, still giving me at +5 to +5.8 averaging.

Cheers,
Leo

[player]

Hi Leonard

I am interesting in your new method,I hope you will post soon new method which have profits in 60 shoes without lose.

Thank you.

[leonardong79]

Hi Player,

You would have to wait for awhile as it still early to see the whole thing as 60 shoes is not a big number. Hopefully you can give me your results frm your real action shoes compute into my search. Of course I wil separate your result from mine to see if there is similar results. hope to get the same results in 500 shoes.

My target is 200000 shoes.

Cheers,
Leo

[ayuinca]

Leo, if you don't mind I will program your system and run shoes test then post the result here.

[ayuinca]

Hi Archer,
This is how I read the shoe that you posted.
You start play at hand 10(you are required to bet Bank).
By hand 16, you would have been up +5. That set is considered finished.

I hope I have read your shoe correctly.

I am confused by your interpretation of the play. +5 is net win or just the total of win not adding up the lost? At hand 16 the net win is only +2, I think the section ends with +5 NTE WIN.

My question is at hand 26. After winning the 5-bet, all 1 are canceled out, there is no more 1, so how comes the next bet is 4 at hand 27?

[ayuinca]

I think 11111 should be paper bet, not actual bet but just put at the beginning. the first bet is always 2. if lost add it to the right, if win cancel the most right and left numbers in the sequence. in fact for some hands how to win 5 units since all five 1 are canceled. for example: PPP B P B PP B PP BBB. bet on B site.

P 11111 2 ......-2
P 11111 23 ....-3
P 11111 234 ..-4
B 1111 23 .......5
p 1111 234 ....-4
B 111 23 ........5
P 111 234 .....-4
P 111 2345 ...-5
B 11 234 ........6
P 11 2345 .....-5
P 11 23456 ...-6
B 1 2345 .......7
B 234 ...........6
B ?

here all 1 are canceled out what is next bet? all 1 are canceled but the net win is -4, how could it be +5?

[krapper007]

You next bet is 6 units, the sum of 2 and 4. If you win, you cancel 2 and 4. You bet the remaining number 3. If you win all the numbers are cancelled and you win 5 units.

B 234 (6 unit Bet Win) Net -4+6=2 units
B 3 (3 unit Bet Win) Net 2+3=5 units

When he loses 4 consecutive bets Leo stops. He also stops when the loss is 12 to 18 units in a shoe. He also stops when he wins 10 units in a shoe, i.e. when he wins 5 units, he starts over with another 5 - 1's. When he wins the second 5, he stops. He also stops when the loser is catching up.

He starts the system when the difference is 1, 2 or 3, i.e. 6-5, 6-4 or 6-3. He does not start when the difference is 4,5,6.

This is my understanding of the shoe from Leo's posts.

[hlkhoo]

Hi Leo,
Thanks for sharing.
Frankly, I don't see how this method could be a long term winner. As you mentioned, you still up after some 200 shoes and I think it's more of luck.
I have some 70 live shoes from Genting Highlands and right from the start,
I already had 3 losing shoes.
Let me post these shoes here. I'm not gonna post the full shoe because
we lost 4 consecutive decision right from the start and based on your method, you would already quit this shoe.

Shoe 1:
B P P B P B P P P B B P B B B B B P P P B B P B B P P P P B B B B P
Shoe 2
P P P P P B P B B B P B B P P P P B B B B B B P B P B B
Shoe 3
P B B B P P B P P P P P B P P P B B B B P P B B B P B P P B B B B B P P
The weakness in this method is streak of 4 and they are very common
throughout.

Cheers,
HLKHOO

[leonardong79]

Hi HLKHOO,

I have said in my 1st post that the chances of bad shoes based on my records is 1 out of 6 which makes about 16.7%. And you said that out of 70 live shoes, you experienced 3 out of 70 shoes which makes about 4.5%. Your result shows that the bad shoes is appearing lesser than my records which is good.

My 1st post indicate : 5/6 shoes win +10 per shoe - 1/6 shoes loss 18=
+50 - 18 = 32 UNIT

Your result = 67 /70 win (assume +10units per shoe) -max loss (18) * 3=
670 - 54= 616 units

winning units per shoe = 616/70 * 0.95 (banker com) = +8.36units

I have said in my later posts that my system is not 100% winning. This is no such thing yet whether in Baccarat or other games. System can only increase your winning chances. I have said in my system, i do have a 4 lost in a row limit which is a damage control. You can called it money management.

Hope you understand.

Cheers,
leo

[hlkhoo]

Hi Leo,
I'm afraid you got me wrong!
I did NOT go all the way to 70 shoes. I said "Right from the start" I got 3 losing shoes. To be exact, I just tested 5 shoes (that is shoe 1 - 5 out of 70) and I got 3 losing shoes and that's why I decided NOT to go further.
No worries - I truly understand there's no 100% winning system and I just wanna share with you on my findings.
Thanks for sharing.

Cheers
HLKHOO

[leonardong79]

Hi John!

I think you need to read my earlier post. I would like to know if how often did the shoes appear in your mentioned trends. Do you do a larger number of shoes. As I have mentioned before, my system only try deals with the majority trends, not all trends. i dun think there is such a system yet if not all of us would not be here discussing already right?

If a system can deals with 70 - 80% of the trends, it can be considered a good system. As for the rest 20 - 30%, you just have to apply loss limit control.

And as for HKLHOO,

I would like to know if you have record the rest of 65 shoes since you said you saw 70 live shoes. You have to get a larger number of record to prove any system is consistent or not. If you just play 5 shoes and do your judgement, then it is just like you play a few hands in shoes. As many people know, you need to get a larger pool in order to get a better results. I do get even 4 or 5 bad shoes in a row during my trial but compare to the whole number of shoes I played, it appear about 1/6 = 16.7%. If the odds of getting 5 in rows is 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2= 1/32 and you still can get it on a regular basis but much more less than a 2wins in a row, I am happy it only appeared about 1/6 on average.

For the two of you, please read my earlier posts, I had said financial planning and discipline are very important, even more important than any system you can have in the world right now. If you dun have even that, pls dun gamble. You WILL be a loser eventually. As for the rest of guys, I would like to share a bit more of my theory. Of course you are free to discuss, this is what this FORUM for right!!?? I will post it in a new tread.

Cheers,
Leo

[ayuinca]

You next bet is 6 units, the sum of 2 and 4. If you win, you cancel 2 and 4. You bet the remaining number 3. If you win all the numbers are cancelled and you win 5 units.

B 234 (6 unit Bet Win) Net -4+6=2 units
B 3 (3 unit Bet Win) Net 2+3=5 units

When he loses 4 consecutive bets Leo stops. He also stops when the loss is 12 to 18 units in a shoe. He also stops when he wins 10 units in a shoe, i.e. when he wins 5 units, he starts over with another 5 - 1's. When he wins the second 5, he stops. He also stops when the loser is catching up.

He starts the system when the difference is 1, 2 or 3, i.e. 6-5, 6-4 or 6-3. He does not start when the difference is 4,5,6.

This is my understanding of the shoe from Leo's posts.

Thanks a lot Krapper. Now I have some pozzles sovled. There are more but please help with them too until I get a full picture clear.

(1) About the difference.
Does it mean Player more than Banker? We don't look to Banker more than Player, correct? When the loser side is catching up, in term of value, when will you stop? Stop when difference become 0? or else?

(2) About the bet side.
We only bet the Banker side?

(3)About the 2nd or later section.
Do we just start a new section right away after the last one finished or wait for the difference being qualified again?

[krapper007]

(1) We bet Player or Banker depending on who reached 6 first. We stop betting when the count becomes zero.

(2) We bet both Player and Banker. See answer to (1)

(3) We start the new section right away after the last one finished.

leonardong79 is working on a new system as per another post, waiting for the new system rules.

[graylove]

I made a posting a few months ago about which ever side (B or P) hits the first 6 wins in a shoe. The side that hits the first 6 wins will win the shoe 66% of the time. I did this test on the wizard of odds 1000 computer generated 8 deck shoes. Im still wondering if this holds true to real shoes. Here is an example: BBPPBPPPBP The P hit the first 6 wins before B. Now 66% of the time the P will win the shoe.

[ayuinca]

(1) We bet Player or Banker depending on who reached 6 first. We stop betting when the count becomes zero.

(2) We bet both Player and Banker. See answer to (1)

(3) We start the new section right away after the last one finished.

leonardong79 is working on a new system as per another post, waiting for the new system rules.

Thanks again. When the difference becomes 0, do you quit the shoe or section? It has to become negative if you win 2 sections in a row without a single lost in between. Even if you start at 6-5, you stop after just win one hand?

[ayuinca]

Here is 10,000 RNG shoes tests.

I do not code the "difference catch up"; quit a shoe once there is section lost more than -11 no matter how much the shoe net (some shoes show section win like this 5, -14, -14 so I will quit this shoe at the first -14 leaving net -9); only bet on Player side, I believe if it does not work for the non-commission side it won't work on Banker side either.

The result is:
Positive Shoe: 2126
Negative Shoe: 2006
Positive Shoes Total Win: 21879
Negative Shoes Total Lost: -23961

I recommend Leo post his complete detail rules here. Any way I am not expecting this system work.

[ayuinca]

Here is another 10,000 shoes with play details. Please find it as attachment and feedback if you find any bug. Thanks.

Still rules are:
1. play Player site only.
2. no difference count during shoe betting.
3. quit shoe once there is section<-11 disregard shoe net win.
4. quit shoe once net win reaches 10 or -12.
5. quit shoe once a section loses 4 hands in a row.

Just find out that attachment only allows 19k, so I just post 100 shoes sample. Please note the file is a rar file, please change .txt to .rar then unzip.

The 10,000 shoes result is:

Positive Shoe: 2179
Negative Shoe: 2123
Positive Shoes Total Win: 22248
Negative Shoes Total Lost: -25617

[krapper007]

Your simulation with the rules enumerated seems to be okay.

[hlkhoo]

Thanks for the simulation.
One of the main reasons I say this system will not work in the long run because it was based on mechanical betting. Just imagine this, with just
one fixed set of rules, used consistently over and over again, you
expect to beat baccarat? No way man!
IMO, I still think one's method must be flexible enough and be able to
blend in the shoe as and when they are revealing itself - then, with a good progression you stand a better chance to beat this game. If you guys had
read the book "The Moving Baccarat", then you will have some ideas of what I'm saying here. His bet selection is very unique but the progression sucks - martingale!

[leonardong79]

Hi HKLHOO,

you have to read carefully my 1st post, I did not bet on player only, is betting on which side wins 6 1st. And the % is about 70%. When to stop and leave the shoe you betting as to depend on your own judgement and thus different results from different people using the same system. And I agree with ellis that you should scan the table 1st and I do believe on table bias in short term. You are not playing 100 shoes at the same table in one session. So find a table which gives a regular bias and use the system. This way you will not be getting bad shoes all the times.

Cheers,
leo

[ayuinca]

Thanks for the simulation.
One of the main reasons I say this system will not work in the long run because it was based on mechanical betting. Just imagine this, with just
one fixed set of rules, used consistently over and over again, you
expect to beat baccarat? No way man!
IMO, I still think one's method must be flexible enough and be able to
blend in the shoe as and when they are revealing itself - then, with a good progression you stand a better chance to beat this game. If you guys had
read the book "The Moving Baccarat", then you will have some ideas of what I'm saying here. His bet selection is very unique but the progression sucks - martingale!

You are right, mechanical can not be perfect. Those flexible or subjective factor is very individual and hard to be programed.

I prefer flat bet. If a system works, it has to work well under flat bet. Risk and gain are always correlated to each other.

[ayuinca]

Hi HKLHOO,

you have to read carefully my 1st post, I did not bet on player only, is betting on which side wins 6 1st. And the % is about 70%. When to stop and leave the shoe you betting as to depend on your own judgement and thus different results from different people using the same system. And I agree with ellis that you should scan the table 1st and I do believe on table bias in short term. You are not playing 100 shoes at the same table in one session. So find a table which gives a regular bias and use the system. This way you will not be getting bad shoes all the times.

Cheers,
leo

What is table bias? You mean the last shoe has its trend to next shoe? It might be just 50-50. I hardly believe stuff without proof.

If bet on Player side could not work, I guess it won't work in whole. In a long run you will see the commission backward. If you still keep positive results, it's because that either your sample amonut is insufficient or you are playing not merely with the mechanical system but with other subjective decisions. So take care of what you have won.

[leonardong79]

Table bias from what i interpret is that there is a trend showing in a short term if not why people interpret the shoe is streaky or choppy. If there is no trends, why bother to care is streaky or choppy then. The stats shows a difference of 1.27% between banker or player. But it is only attainable in a long term meaning more than a million shoes. It just like a U shape graph, it will move but not a a rapid rate. Most people have their data from all over the places, from different tables at different times. If you do have the patient and record the results from a same table for at least 30 shoes, you can find that the trend is always near, not exact the same, but do have a bit of ups and down just like a U.

And the type of shuffle is also very important, some casino use the same cards to shuffle whereas some always use new decks after the shoe. This do affect the trends too.

Regard to the comission, every one knows that banker will have a 5% commission, so no system can avoid this, if the person has problem with this, he or she should leave this game alone and go for craps, bj or roulette.

And yes I do play with a bit of subjective decisions but that is what all of us should do right. Know when it is a bad shoe for your system and get out the table and move on. Always have a limit loss control and financial planning. I won about the same bankroll in one session and if i lose my bankroll during next session. I simply stop and walk away. If you see my gambling theory, you should know why mechanical system do works.

I happy with your different of views which is very good. This is what we need to share so oneself can learn from others and implement what is best for yourself as every one has its own personality hence making different judgement with the same situation.

Rem we do have ups and down just like the cards, so everyone must know when to stop. If not, you better dun bet as casino will bit you back real hard.

Cheers,
Leo

What is table bias? You mean the last shoe has its trend to next shoe? It might be just 50-50. I hardly believe stuff without proof.

If bet on Player side could not work, I guess it won't work in whole. In a long run you will see the commission backward. If you still keep positive results, it's because that either your sample amonut is insufficient or you are playing not merely with the mechanical system but with other subjective decisions. So take care of what you have won.

[leonardong79]

I would like how many of us play a million shoes in a lifetime. A normal person usually play maybe 2 -3 times per week and some play 5 times a week. One session probably have 10 - 20 shoes as one shoe of eight decks usually takes about 40 mins to one hour.

So one year = 52 weeks * 5 * 20 = 5200

60 years (since 18) = 42 * 5200 = 218400 shoes

And that if you play 5 times per week for your next 60 years. So the Stats of most people would not be accurate unless you test it with the same deck over and over again. There are too many external factors that could affect the stats from so called a million hands or more. The same cards of using or different decks for different shoes. The timing of the results recorded. Too many to determine. The wizards of odds stated that banker has 1.27% advantage over player and if it is so, why we still get results from shoes that a impressive player winning rate against banker. It can be banker over player in long term, but in short term, it may not be the case. This is called trend. A cycle tends to fall on player at the right moment at the right shoe at a right table. Same for the banker too.

Just like a plane crash, the probability is so slim and yet we still can see or heard every year or even month. But the whole number of planes uncrash is very impressive. Some of us like to follow the miniority like long dragon etc or some will like the regular stuff which appears more often. Know what you want 1st before using any system is important. And know its weakness so you would not dig your own grave.

Cheers,
Leo

[hlkhoo]

Hi Leo,
In theory, you are absolutely correct - in the long run i.e. million hands, banker will be more than player. However, what you failed to see is that, those bad shoes can happen anytime. There's no fixed rules that says
bad shoes can only happen after the 100,000th shoes. I'm sure you would agree with me on this point. Those bad shoes can come in clusters, random and maybe span across several days. Simply put, we just don't know when they are coming. By the time you realized, you would have already lost 12 units. The reason you are winning because you were at the right table at the right time that suits your method of play. All I can say luck was on your side.
In this forum, we do get different sources of data from various parts of the world and frankly it doesn't really matter whether they are coming from AC, Macau or even your home casino - Singapore. If your method works, it will work. This is baccarat and all casino practice the same "drawing" rules and therefore, the testing conducted by Ayuinca is certainly a valid one. Of course you can argue with me about the different outcome of the shoes when it is 6 decks, 8 decks, machine shuffle or hand shuffle but that will be a different discussion altogether.

Cheers,
HLKHOO

[leonardong79]

Hi HLKHOO

I think you still can't see my point. I did have encountered the bad shoes, is not only one or two times, maybe twenty or thirty shoes or even more by now. I have stated my rules, if you encountered that, leave the shoe and find another table. And there is at least 10 -20 tables in the casino and the odds of getting all bad shoes in all tables are too slim. If you can find one casino with all tables having bad shoes, I think you should buy lottery. And one session ends bad doesn't mean is a disaster. If not all card counters in bj will not play anymore and casino would not be hostile to them.

Hi Leo,
In theory, you are absolutely correct - in the long run i.e. million hands, banker will be more than player. However, what you failed to see is that, those bad shoes can happen anytime. There's no fixed rules that says
bad shoes can only happen after the 100,000th shoes. I'm sure you would agree with me on this point. Those bad shoes can come in clusters, random and maybe span across several days. Simply put, we just don't know when they are coming. By the time you realized, you would have already lost 12 units. The reason you are winning because you were at the right table at the right time that suits your method of play. All I can say luck was on your side.
In this forum, we do get different sources of data from various parts of the world and frankly it doesn't really matter whether they are coming from AC, Macau or even your home casino - Singapore. If your method works, it will work. This is baccarat and all casino practice the same "drawing" rules and therefore, the testing conducted by Ayuinca is certainly a valid one. Of course you can argue with me about the different outcome of the shoes when it is 6 decks, 8 decks, machine shuffle or hand shuffle but that will be a different discussion altogether.

Cheers,
HLKHOO

[ayuinca]

Well, HLKHOO, I can't agree more on your comments. We have same idea of what statistics means. I think Leo has his own understanding of statistics so that we don't need to argue with him on that any more. Now I believe if Leo can keep winning, it will tell it is not that simply mechanical system can do. His ultimate rules of the system are not the complete rules we see here.

Leo wish you all the best luck and please don't forget to tell us your subjective rules when you still win in a long term. Then I might be able to put all your subjective rules into program.

[Archer]

Hi HLKHOO

I think you still can't see my point. I did have encountered the bad shoes, is not only one or two times, maybe twenty or thirty shoes or even more by now. I have stated my rules, if you encountered that, leave the shoe and find another table. And there is at least 10 -20 tables in the casino and the odds of getting all bad shoes in all tables are too slim. If you can find one casino with all tables having bad shoes, I think you should buy lottery. And one session ends bad doesn't mean is a disaster. If not all card counters in bj will not play anymore and casino would not be hostile to them.

I see your point Leo. It is the age old question. It really is uncanny how a single mechanical method can just do very well over a seemingly long period of even 100 shoes. I have seen this more than once even with just flat bet. The average bet size creates an illusion so the higher the average bet the more winning you may see for longer period then bam - big losing.

Consider you put a thousand players all play 100 shoes, leaving table and choosing another when hit a bad shoe. Then plot the results. Because of relative small house vig you will see bell curve for all players that will relate to house edge. Some win extreme, some lose extreme most cluttered around the vig, few over all winners, more losers - all total house vig.

Archer