Thread: "Wizards 6.5% win system."

This is a system devised by the Wizard himself. He claims to win by 6.5% over 7500 spins, yet also claims it won't work in the long term.

Here is how to play it.

1. This system can be played on any even money game, including roulette, but craps is strongly suggested due to the lower house edge.

2. Player makes only even money bets. In roulette any even money bet will do and the player may change the bet at will (as always the past does not matter).

3. Player must be comfortable with a betting range of 1 to 1000 units.

4. The first bet is 1 unit.

5. After each bet the player will determine 6.6% (the extra 0.1% is a margin of safety) of his total past wagers. If his net win is less than this figure he will bet the lesser of the difference and 1000 units. If his net win is more then he will bet one unit.

6. Repeat until 7500 bets are made.

In roulette I did a computer simulation of this experiment 10,000 times and the player made his 6.5% 5380 times, or 53.8%. So the first time with live play it would be probable that the player would report a success story. In craps betting on the pass line using the same system resulted in 7484 wins and 2516 losses, for a success rate of 74.84%. Going back to roulette, if the spread is 1 to 10,000 units the numbers of wins was 8367 and 1633 losses. In all cases when the system doesn't hold up over 7500 spins the loss is big, more than 6.5% on average.

Of course this system is just as worthless as every other. The point I hope I have made is that it is easy to easy to design a system that usually wins. However when you do lose you lose big. Over the long run the losses will be more than the wins and the player will have a lot less money in his pocket.

A few questions:

How is it played exactly?

Why will it hold up after 7500, but not after say.. 1,000,000?

Would it work with a lessor betting spread, say table limits 1-200?

Just trying to get some things started here at BacForums, and trying to reduce the amount of soap opera tit-for-tat that goes on at GG.

TheArchitect

Originally Posted by TheArchitect

This is a system devised by the Wizard himself. He claims to win by 6.5% over 7500 spins, yet also claims it won't work in the long term.




A few questions:

How is it played exactly?

Why will it hold up after 7500, but not after say.. 1,000,000?

Would it work with a lessor betting spread, say table limits 1-200?

Just trying to get some things started here at BacForums, and trying to reduce the amount of soap opera tit-for-tat that goes on at GG.

TheArchitect

Let's ask the Wizard, first, about how it's played. I'll email him as soon as i post this.

If i see another system, it will be too soon... what really gets me, is when a player sends me only their (actual) score-cards. I'm not a "genius" (like Ellis) who can just look at that to know how to perfect upon those systems, if those even existed, lol. That sort of genius is pretty much myth, anyway... i have met (and studied with) a few real geniuses, but who still require the same old general (but broader-still) knowledge on which to make the same old cognitive (but formally-trained) decisions over time. They just get it right in every way, the first time.

Asfaras the longer time played, the longer will be the runs of luck one way or the other (over an even-chance game)... and the variance of the mean result, and of the other levels/types of deviation.

Thanks for emailing him Garnabby,

I suppose my only real discrepancy with the rules of his system is rule 5.

5. After each bet the player will determine 6.6% (the extra 0.1% is a margin of safety) of his total past wagers. If his net win is less than this figure he will bet the lesser of the difference and 1000 units. If his net win is more then he will bet one unit.

Lets say that I played 100 decisions flat betting $1. and say I'm down $2 (Bac player vig rounded up). My net win thus is -$2, and is less than 6.6% of 100 which is $6.60.

Do I a: bet $6.60, or b: bet $6.60 "and" $1,000 = $1,006.60? I'm sure it's a, but he uses "and" instead of "or", so I'm not 100%.

TheArchitect

Originally Posted by garnabby

Let's ask the Wizard, first, about how it's played. I'll email him as soon as i post this.

If i see another system, it will be too soon... what really gets me, is when a player sends me only their (actual) score-cards. I'm not a "genius" (like Ellis) who can just look at that to know how to perfect upon those systems, if those even existed, lol. That sort of genius is pretty much myth, anyway... i have met (and studied with) a few real geniuses, but who still require the same old general (but broader-still) knowledge on which to make the same old cognitive (but formally-trained) decisions over time. They just get it right in every way, the first time.

Asfaras the longer time played, the longer will be the runs of luck one way or the other (over an even-chance game)... and the variance of the mean result, and of the other levels/types of deviation.

Garnabby, I can't take individual shoes out of context of the casino and play them any better than you could. I have repeatedly said that practice is a waste of time. Yet that is what most players attempt to do both at home and in the casino. Most players think casino canvassing is looking for an empty seat. They play with no regard, whatsoever, of the history of the table they just sat down to. We call this playing in the blind. I teach my students to NEVER do this.

When you watched us play I had already canvassesd the 16 toteboards before my group met for dinner. 45 minutes later the tote board at table 1 still showed the strongest bias. It happened to be about 75% TB4L favorable still. That's why we sat to that table. That's why the pit boss suddenly wanted to shuffle up mid shoe after just refusing another player the shuffle he asked for. That's why I argued with the pit boss that the only reason we sat down is she had just refused to shuffle and we wanted to finish the shoe at hand. She relented. Pit bosses aren't stupid Garnabby. They don't get the job by seniority. She knew that something was up and she should shuffle. But she didn't. So we sat down and played straight TB4L and won 18 hands out of 21 winning enough money in 15 minutes to pay for our entire Vegas trip including airfare in the first game of our trip. The rest of our 4 day Vegas trip went much the same way. Ask anyone who was there. Somehow you just don't get it even when you see it. You find some way to bad mouth everything. That is why you have no credibility.

I'm an instuctor AND a player. I'm the only intructor I know who plays right along side his students. I not only tell them how to play, I show them how to play. I put my money where my mouth is. My playing groups ALWAYS win and no name calling on your part can make it otherwise. YOU are a player wannabe. Wannabe Garnabby. That is how the game is played Garnabby. But you don't get it even when it's demonstated right under your nose. You are too busy trying to think of ways to discredit people even when you watch them win.

Garnabby, the guys you were standing there with bad mouthing me were ALSO my students. They told me how you freaked out when you saw us win. They all think you are some kind of nut case. When they saw your post about that game, you gave them all the proof they needed. All 15 of them went on to win the rest of the trip. Those are the facts Garnabby no matter how much you wish they were otherwise.

Garnabby, Archer, I'm not successful with every student I attempt to teach. Some folks just aren't cut out for this game. See Jerek was such a case. He wanted to play now and learn later. Many members, including me, tried to help him but to no avail. He just didn't get it. Thankfully we get few such get rich quick cases. A very few get it almost overnight. Some get it in a few weeks as AD from this forum did. Most take several months. It depends largely on how many bad habits we have to break them of first. Mark T, for instance, I thought would never attain the discipline required. It took him a year to conquer that problem. But conquer it he did. He recently posted about his first 1000+ unit trip including exactly how he played complete with actual shoes and how easy it was simply following the program I try to teach. He went from failure to cover story. But this game is not for everyone.

As far as the Wizzard's 6.5% system: Like the 50/50 system I recently posted, I think its great for a fun way to beat your computer. As far as casinos go - you'd have to be completely out of your mind! As I'm sure the Wizzard knows full well.

Originally Posted by Ellis

When you watched us play...

Like i already wrote, "I wouldn't cross the street to see you do anything." And like everything else you claim w/o proof, you still have no proof.

Please, keep interrupting the "big-bad, terrible outside world" here until your own little one goes away... along with yourself.

Originally Posted by Ellis

I'm an instuctor AND a player. I'm the only intructor I know who plays right along side his students. I not only tell them how to play, I show them how to play. I put my money where my mouth is. My playing groups ALWAYS win and no name calling on your part can make it otherwise. YOU are a player wannabe. Wannabe Garnabby. That is how the game is played Garnabby. But you don't get it even when it's demonstated right under your nose. You are too busy trying to think of ways to discredit people even when you watch them win.

Yawn, we're all "wannabe's" until someone actually beats the baccarat-bank a few times... then even his/her (real) story could be worth millions?

"You are too busy trying to think of ways to discredit people even when you watch them win."

TheArchitect,

Here's the Wizard's reply to myself this morning:

*****I'm not a member there, so feel free to copy and paste the following there.

The reason I designed that system was because a system salesman was boasting his system had a 6.5% profit over 7,500 bets. To that I say, big deal. If you risk a lot, to win a little, it is easy to have a high probability of success.

The way my system works is if you are down, or up by less than 6.5% of total past wagers, then bet whatever you need to be up by 6.5% if you win. If you are up by 6.5%, then bet the minimum.

Somebody asked this question, " Lets say that I played 100 decisions flat betting $1. and say I'm down $2 (Bac player vig rounded up). My net win thus is -$2, and is less than 6.6% of 100 which is $6.60."

With $100 bet, your target is to be up by $6.60, and he is down $2. So the player should bet $8.60.

Of course, most players are not going to know the total amount they have bet in the past. This is not a practical system, just an effort to show that aggressive systems usually do win. However, as I said, when they do fail, they fail big time. You're just as well off in the long run to fly by the seat of your pants. If you must use a system, just don't support the vermin that sell them, but rather something you found for free, or make up your own. They are all equally worthless in the long run.*****


----- Original Message -----
From: <all4you@porchlight.ca>
To: <shack+other@WizardOfOdds.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:51 PM
Subject: baccarat


>[ name ] Mark
> [ recipient ] shack+other
> [ message ] Someone has posted your(?) baccarat-system at
> http://baccaratforums.com/t6279/#post18272. I wonder if you could find a few minutes to add a bit more detail... or even to check out the
> relatively-new board, if you haven't already.
>
>
>
> I have nothing to do in any way with that site, except as a visitor.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Thank you.
>
>
>
> Mark
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------





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Originally Posted by garnabby

TheArchitect,

Here's the Wizard's reply to myself this morning:

*****I'm not a member there, so feel free to copy and paste the following there.

The reason I designed that system was because a system salesman was boasting his system had a 6.5% profit over 7,500 bets. To that I say, big deal. If you risk a lot, to win a little, it is easy to have a high probability of success.

The way my system works is if you are down, or up by less than 6.5% of total past wagers, then bet whatever you need to be up by 6.5% if you win. If you are up by 6.5%, then bet the minimum.

Somebody asked this question, " Lets say that I played 100 decisions flat betting $1. and say I'm down $2 (Bac player vig rounded up). My net win thus is -$2, and is less than 6.6% of 100 which is $6.60."

With $100 bet, your target is to be up by $6.60, and he is down $2. So the player should bet $8.60.

Of course, most players are not going to know the total amount they have bet in the past. This is not a practical system, just an effort to show that aggressive systems usually do win. However, as I said, when they do fail, they fail big time. You're just as well off in the long run to fly by the seat of your pants. If you must use a system, just don't support the vermin that sell them, but rather something you found for free, or make up your own. They are all equally worthless in the long run.*****


----- Original Message -----
From: <all4you@porchlight.ca>
To: <shack+other@WizardOfOdds.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:51 PM
Subject: baccarat


>[ name ] Mark
> [ recipient ] shack+other
> [ message ] Someone has posted your(?) baccarat-system at
> http://baccaratforums.com/t6279/#post18272. I wonder if you could find a few minutes to add a bit more detail... or even to check out the
> relatively-new board, if you haven't already.
>
>
>
> I have nothing to do in any way with that site, except as a visitor.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Thank you.
>
>
>
> Mark
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------





No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 9.0.733 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/2665 - Release Date: 02/03/10 03:09:

Wow,

Thanks for emailing him, and my hat's off to the Wizard to responding to your email in such a timely manner.

So to correct the wording for the system...

5. After each bet the player will determine 6.6% (the extra 0.1% is a margin of safety) of his total past wagers. If his net win is less than this figure he will bet [this figure plus] the lesser of the difference and 1000 units. If his net win is more then he will bet one unit.

So the goal is to basically have your net winnings be at 6.5% after any decision. I also suspect you could lower this percentage to any number >0 letting you stay in the game longer, or any percentage <100, at the expense of higher volatility and greater chance of Gamblers Ruin.

I'm going to test this over the 40k bac shoes I have and will see how it performs.

TheArchitect

We should be thanking also you, TA, for taking the time to dig that system up.

And it's certainly understandable the Wizard not having the time to register (to be able to post) at each and every site... even though this one has an easy registration process.

Originally Posted by garnabby

We should be thanking also you, TA, for taking the time to dig that system up.

And it's certainly understandable the Wizard not having the time to register (to be able to post) at each and every site... even though this one has an easy registration process.

I agree.. I was looking on Amazon today for Spanish 21 books (since there are only two.. LOL) and read the review for the Scoblete book, and it was by none other than The Wizard. He basically says the book teaches the wrong basic strategy, and would only be good for comp value.. I had to laugh... It's goo to be able to command such a knowledge probabilities and statistics.

I plan on relocating to Vegas one day and just might enroll in his casino math class at UNLV, if it's not locked for mathematics majors, or if it has some absurd pre reqs.

TheArchitect

I totally agree with the Wizzard. As I've said a zillion times, there is no mechanical system that can beat Baccarat regardless of how clever or how steep or how shallow you make your progression. That approach simply won't work in the long run.

Even on the 50/50 system that I recently posted on Georgia's thread, that's about as good a purely mechanical system as you can find. You never hit the table max and you win a LOT of shoes. It may take a 1000 shoes but sooner or later you'll get to a 20 unit bet. That's real easy playing against a baccarat program on your computer. Your computer has all the money in the world. All you need do is push a button. Might take you another 100 shoes to get back to your one bet but you can do that very easily.

But when you get to a 20 bet in a casino it means you just lost your 1 through 19 bets. Who is going to make a REAL 20 bet when they are down that far? Who even can? Other than your computer.

Like Archer said, that only leaves biases (trends). That's how I ended up there 25 years ago. But this takes work! It's no longer just a fun game. There isn't just one bias.

A player must possess the discipline to wait until he has found the strongest bias in the casino. He must have the knowledge to identify and find that bias. He must know which system and which variation of that system beats that bias best. He must know what to do when he is wrong and have the courage to try again. You are wrong a lot at first. He must have the patience to bet low and win by skill rather than high bets.

Most players simply aren't interested in going through all that. They look at casinos as fun time - not as a job like any other job. That leaves out most players. But that is the ONLY way to win. If there were any other way, I'm pretty sure I would have found it after 30 years of research and table experience.

But for those who do take the time to learn, it can be very rewarding.

Oh, and you'll find that 50/50 system far superior to the Wizzards 6.5 system because when you are down you get back up the same way you got down - in small increments. You DON'T do it in one fell swoop desperation bet as the Wizzard proposes. Hell, everybody in the casino is trying to do that. And everybody loses. Sooner or later you'll lose the farm!

Originally Posted by Ellis

Oh, and you'll find that 50/50 system far superior to the Wizzards 6.5 system because when you are down you get back up the same way you got down - in small increments. You DON'T do it in one fell swoop desperation bet as the Wizzard proposes. Hell, everybody in the casino is trying to do that. And everybody loses. Sooner or later you'll lose the farm!

Hi Ellis,

Could you please break down the 50/50 system for us once again? I'm unclear on certain points.

Thank you

Originally Posted by garnabby

Like i already wrote, "I wouldn't cross the street to see you do anything." And like everything else you claim w/o proof, you still have no proof.

Garnabby, if you are now going to claim you weren't there, you shouldn't have posted about that game all over the internet under the name Garnabby, admitting you were there, broadcasting you were there, even divulging what system we were playing. Since you have admitted that Baccarat "is not your cup of tea" you had only one reason to be there, standing there behind me, arms folded, talking a mile a minute to my students who knew immediately who you were by the statements you made. You also shouldn't have warned us in advance that you would be there. Which BTW is fine. That's why we always announce our group trips in advance. Anyone is invited to watch us. But to bad mouth us because we won so big... that's special... sour grapes.

You sound like John Edwards if he were now to claim that he had always been faithful.

Originally Posted by sevenshooter

Hi Ellis,

Could you please break down the 50/50 system for us once again? I'm unclear on certain points.

Thank you

Starting at play #2

1.) So that you are betting 50/50 yet randomly, you go by the color of the last card dealt in the prior hand.

2.) Red means your primary prog bets Opposite. Black means Repeat.

3.) Your secondary prog bets precisely opposite your primary prog. (when you first try this color code your secondary prog red - less confusing)

(So play #2 your entries are 1 vs 1 = no bet)
(play #3 your entries are 2 vs 2 = no bet)
(play 4 your entries are 3 vs 1 so your table bet is 2 on the side with the higher entry.)

To beat your computer each prog bets U1D1 M2. This means a prog bets up 1 when the prog loses and down 1 win it wins except don't go below 1. M2 means a prog always bets 2 after 1 regardless of whether the 1 wins or loses.

You are net betting: This means you always have 2 entries each play on your score card, one under P, one under B. You subtract the low entry from the high entry and table bet the difference on the side with the higher entry. When your two entries are equal, you have no bet that play.

Now, to play this in a casino, I recommend you change your progs from 12345 etc to $10,15,20,25,30 etc. and bet U1D2 M15. Also when a prog loses 3 bets in a row I recommend the losing prog stop betting until it achieves a paper win and then resume where it left off. The winning prog keeps right on betting "unopposed". (10,15,10,15 etc.)

I also recommend you cap your bets at $40 or whatever you are comfortable with.

Now remember, this is purely a mechanical system so it is break even in the long run. So use it as a hit and run system. Quit when you are ahead.

As mechanical systems go its about as good as they get but at your earliest convenience, learn how to play trends. I'm the only one who teaches this and I teach at beatthecasino.com

Also practice this at home until you are smoothe at it and so you know exactly what you're getting into.

Now, is there any part you still don't understand?

BTW, the only way I know to practice this at home is to deal cards to yourself or use one of those free live internet casinos.

Here's a simple program (wizards65.rex) to demonstrate this money management system at work. (See Open Object Rexx if you don't have a rexx interpreter installed.) Change the the number of units you start with, number of shoes played or other conditions, and see if you can make this system a winner?

/*REXX*/
/*wizard65.rex*/

/*
* Wizard of odds MM system to win 6.5% by risking a lot to win a little.
*/

totalW = 0
totalL = 0
totalT = 0
totalM = 0
shoesW = 0

do shoeNum=1 to 200 /*run this quick little test for 200 shoes*/
/*use much bigger # of shoes for more reliable results*/
/*(0)=no print hand results (1)=print each hand result*/
PARSE VALUE playShoe(0) WITH money","wins","losses","ties

percent = 0
if (0 < wins) then percent = 100/(1+Losses/wins)
SAY "$"format(money,5,2,'0') ,
right(wins,2)"-"left(Losses,2)"-"left(ties,2) ,
format(percent,3,0)"%"

totalW = totalW + Wins
totalL = totalL + Losses
totalT = totalT + ties
totalM = totalM + money
if (0<=money) then shoesW = shoesW + 1

end

SAY "---"
SAY "$"format(totalM,,2,'0') ,
totalW"-"totalL"-"totalT ,
format(100/(1+totalL/totalw),,2)"%" ,
"true math=49.32%"
shoeNum=shoeNum-1
SAY "shoesW="shoesW"/"shoeNum format(100*shoesW/shoeNum,,1)"%"
SAY "avg shoes $"format(totalM/shoeNum,,2)

EXIT 0

/*--------------------------------------------------------------------*/
playShoe: PROCEDURE
ARG print

initBankroll = 750
minimumBet = 10
maximumBet = 1000

betSize = 0
pastBets = 0
netMoney = 0
Wcnt = 0
Lcnt = 0
Tcnt = 0

do handNum = 1 to 80

/* if we are below the target then bet enough to bring us up to */
/* the target of +6.6%. */
targetMoney = pastBets*0.066
betSize = minimumBet
if netMoney < targetMoney then betSize = targetMoney - netMoney

/* make sure the bet is in a legal range */
betSize = max(betSize,minimumBet)
betSize = min(betSize,maximumBet)
betSize = min(betSize,initBankroll+netMoney)

/* Random number will determine if this hand wins or losses. */
/* To make this test easier, let's just say we play all the */
/* PLAYER hands. That way there's no commission to worry about. */
random_winner = random(10000)
if (random_winner < 4462) /* 1 to 4462 is PLAYER wins 44.62% */
then do
Wcnt = Wcnt + 1
netMoney = netMoney + betSize
WL = "W+"
end
else do
if (random_winner < (4462+952)) /* Tie, push 9.52% */
then do
Tcnt = Tcnt + 1
betSize = 0 /*this means we don't change the pastBets*/
WL = "T "
end
else do /* Banker, we loose 45.86% */
Lcnt = Lcnt + 1
netMoney = netMoney - betSize
WL = "L-"
end
end

pastBets = pastBets + betSize

if print then SAY right(handNum,2,'0') ,
WL||format(betSize,4,2,'0') ,
"net$"format(netMoney,5,2,'0') ,
right(Wcnt,2)'-'left(Lcnt,2)

if (netMoney < (minimumBet-initBankroll))
then do
if print then SAY "***BUST***"
leave
end

end
return(netMoney","Wcnt","Lcnt","Tcnt)
/*--------------------------------------------------------------------*/

fulkgl,

I can't get it to work on my mac (version 3.2.1). Would you post some results?

Would you also be able to code something like Oscar's grind so we could compare?

Is it hard to program something to simulate Craps?

Sorry for the battery of questions, you have skills..

"Nunchaku skills, bowhunting skills, computer hacking skills.. You know skills"

Sorry couldn't resist the Napoleon quote...

TheArchitect

Originally Posted by Ellis

Garnabby, if you are now going to claim you weren't there, you shouldn't have posted about that game all over the internet under the name Garnabby, admitting you were there, broadcasting you were there, even divulging what system we were playing. Since you have admitted that Baccarat "is not your cup of tea" you had only one reason to be there, standing there behind me, arms folded, talking a mile a minute to my students who knew immediately who you were by the statements you made. You also shouldn't have warned us in advance that you would be there. Which BTW is fine. That's why we always announce our group trips in advance. Anyone is invited to watch us. But to bad mouth us because we won so big... that's special... sour grapes.

You sound like John Edwards if he were now to claim that he had always been faithful.

Wouldn't even cross the street to hear you speak the truth.

Fine Garnabby. I rest my case. Again, the players know.

Enough BS. Anybody got a Baccarat question? Even BJ?

Originally Posted by Ellis

I rest my case. Again, the players know.

So that'd rule you out, the guy who has already admitted he doesn't play for real money anymore (if ever, lol,)... because "money doesn't matter to a guy like yourself", lol.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Enough BS. Anybody got a Baccarat question? Even BJ?

Or $50/500+, and a lot of time, to throw away over at www.beatthecasinoforums.com ? (I can only point it out, you'll have to make or not your own mistakes for yourselves.)

Well, I can guarantee everyone here that Garnabby was never a private member at BTC and therefore has no idea of what he is talking about. Nor will he ever be.

I'm pretty much sick of you two bickering back and forth and ruining every thread..

I'm contacting Mike and asking him to either make a sub forum that is for you two to jerk each other off on there or to have you guys banned for a week.

I can't read any threads anymore because they're just full of he said she said shit.

You both are grown ass men, older than me. So start acting like it.

I don't think I'm alone on this one.

TheArchitect

Originally Posted by garnabby

So that'd rule you out, the guy who has already admitted he doesn't play for real money anymore (if ever, lol,)... because "money doesn't matter to a guy like yourself", lol.

Far out! Garnabby for a guy who has watched me play. Can't you argue W/O blatant lies? Lies that everyone here knows are lies, including you. Just what is your purpose anyway? Do you even know?

Thousands have watched me play. Has anyone ever seen you play? Why are you even on a Baccarat forum? You don't even play this game. What did you do, wake up one morning and decide you are an expert at something you have never even done? Hey, keep making a complete fool of yourself. See if it bothers me any.

Again, has anyone got any Baccarat questions? Who do you prefer answer them? Someone who has never played or someone who has been playing and teaching this game successfully for 25 years and has the winning students to prove it?

Originally Posted by TheArchitect

I'm pretty much sick of you two bickering back and forth and ruining every thread..

And now you know why pretty much everyone who actually plays the game just fades away here. Garnabby has the idea that he will save all forums with his dreary non-discussions, always acusing, always attacking, usually making up facts as needed.

You can't go to a baccarat forum anymore without Garnabby trying to save the world and pretty much mess up the forum. He pretty much obliterated his own forum in a month!

The only one he hasn't messed up yet is the one he only showed up one time at!

Too bad he's chased away at least 5 serious players that I'm aware of and I'm sure there's more that just read the board, decide he's hopeless and just go away. It's too bad as this is one of the better baccarat boards.

AD