Thread: Interesting test results

I'm sure that most will deposit this in the more useless information file, but I ran 20000 shoes containing only 6's, 7's and 0 value cards. The tie percentages jumped from 9.55% to 26.43%. What does this mean? I take it to mean that if there is a greater than average number of 6, 7, and 0 value cards towards the end of the shoe that the odds increase that there will be a tie towards the end of the shoe.

Do I advocate a tie system or a tie bet? NO IT IS STILL A LOW PERCENTAGE BET.

But, if it is near the end of the shoe--say last 8 hands--and you are up and feel like GAMBLING not wagering a small portion of your profit--this might be a place where a tie bet should be better than the normal 9.55%.

Makes a lot more sense than the odd even tie system Georgia. That's why the casino cuts off so many cards out of play. Keep on thinking - that's what you're good at - as Sundance said.

Another thing, in the casino where i play they take 14 off. The burn card is exposed. For the tie to be more probable in an eight deck shoe than normal in hands 56-72, Ace would be the preferred burn card. A zero value card would be the worst. I wouldnt bother watching unless burn card is ace ,two,three.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

Another thing, in the casino where i play they take 14 off. The burn card is exposed. For the tie to be more probable in an eight deck shoe than normal in hands 56-72, Ace would be the preferred burn card. A zero value card would be the worst. I wouldnt bother watching unless burn card is ace ,two,three.

1. If the burn cards are exposed, why does it matter if they are burning 1 or ten. You see them and can count them.
In Las Vegas, or anywhere they are not expose, you are right.

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

I'm sure that most will deposit this in the more useless information file, but I ran 20000 shoes containing only 6's, 7's and 0 value cards. The tie percentages jumped from 9.55% to 26.43%. What does this mean? I take it to mean that if there is a greater than average number of 6, 7, and 0 value cards towards the end of the shoe that the odds increase that there will be a tie towards the end of the shoe.

Do I advocate a tie system or a tie bet? NO IT IS STILL A LOW PERCENTAGE BET.

But, if it is near the end of the shoe--say last 8 hands--and you are up and feel like GAMBLING not wagering a small portion of your profit--this might be a place where a tie bet should be better than the normal 9.55%.

Now run the same test with only 8,9, and 10 value cards and tell me what you get. It should be even more interesting.
Oh yea, much better than the odd/even method.

only the flash card is exposed. the remainder are face down--yo do not see. an ace would mean 16 cards will not be seen. since this is the fewest cards that will not be in play, I say that it increases the odds.note i am only suggesting these are good conditions for playing a tie,but tie is still a long shot bet.

With 8,9, and zero i get 20.98%

Good thinking Profbac

Supposedly, and only according to the Wizard.. Removing 0,1,8, and 9s from the deck benefit ties, and removing 2,3,4,5,6, and 7s are bad.

Instead of the old odd/even tie system, what if we counted more like BJ, and applied a count to each card. This would be easier since we're allowed to write things down at a BAc table and the cards are dealt much slower.

8,9,0 +1
2,3,4,5 -1
6,7 - 2

Georgia, how are you running your sims?

TheArchitect

Removing 0,1 8, 9 I come up with 12.92%.ties. The reason 6's and 7, produce ties has to do with the drawing rules in the game.I have some software which will generate this info.

Georgia,

This is quite interesting.. I'm glad someone is still attacking this game looking for +EV results besides blind bet selection. I'm also glad your results are different from the Wizard's.

Have you ran sims with any combinations showing an increase of B vs P or vice versa. I do know that the probability for B appearing increases as the shoe deplets. I think I read that the house edge at like 95% is 1.000001, which is still only $.06 off per $100 bet.

What software are you using? I would like to try some things out as well..

TheArchitect

This is from John May, and backs up Georgia's findings (or vice versa)

"Favourable Baccarat Subsets And Commentary

I thought I would publish some figures concerning the expectation from the baccarat tie wager with depleted decks. This should be helpful in determining the viability or otherwise of counting baccarat.


Card subset name: 10's + 5's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0

Tie Bet Advantage = 340.30936%




Card subset name: 10's + 6's + 4's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 0 0 32 0 32 0 0 0

Tie Bet Advantage = 152.01169%




Card subset name: 10's + 8's + 9's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 32

Tie Bet Advantage = 88.93232%



Card subset name: 10's + 6's + 7's + 8's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 0 0 0 0 32 32 32 0

Tie Bet Advantage = 47.61894%



Card subset name: 10's + 3's + 6's + 9's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 32 0 32 0 0 32 0 0 32

Tie Bet Advantage = 8.21853%



Card subset name: all-even valued cards


Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0

Tie Bet advantage =62.02323%




Card subset name: all-even valued cards+5's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9


Number 128 0 32 0 32 32 32 0 32 0


Tie Bet Advantage = 6.25045%

Viability and Cover

It should be apparent to the perceptive from the above examples that baccarat can be "beaten" as a practical matter, though not neccessarily easily, at least, in games with deep penetration. If, that is, we have a good means of determining when we have an advantage, on which more below.

Simulation data on computer-perfect analysis of the tie wager shows that if you can find a game where the last hand will be dealt from a 10-card subset, you can obtain a 1% advantage with a 45-1 spread, assuming you can detect favourable situations accurately.

We can therefore deduce that the game can be beaten because baccarat, as a general rule, has nothing like the heat associated with blackjack. You can spread up to the table maximum and down again, indeed you can sit out hands, no one will care. As David Sklansky wrote in Getting The Best Of It "There is not yet any paranoia among the casinos regarding counting...Players can bet anywhere from $5 up to $50,000 at any time. " ($50,000 is actually pretty conservative for bac nowadays). Obviously, if you could only make one $50,000 bet a year with a 100% edge, your EV for that year is still $50,000.

Naturally, the combination of large bets, an absence of heat, and huge advantages on individual hands, can make the game very profitable.

The main difficulty, and this is an issue complex enough to require a separate thread, is the relative frequency of advantageous situations. Advantageous subsets like the ones above, occur quite rarely. You need to know exactly when it is worthwhile to quit a game for a fresh deal in order to maximize your opportunities.

Additionally, it should be obvious that baccarat is not desirable for all conceivable player utilities. It would be a poor choice for a player trying to build up a bankroll. For other utilities it can be quite attractive-for example, some high stakes teams who are looking for an unconventional approach find that the absolute returns to be had from baccarat can be quite attractive.

Failure Of The Linear Systems

Note that in every case in the subset data above, count systems, such as the one devised by the Wizard Of Odds (♠Baccarat card counting - Effects of removing a card - The Wizard of Odds) , would get a completely incorrect assessment of advantage, often recommending a negative bet when your edge is enormous. Don't take my word for it, test the Wizard's system on these subsets yourself.

The problem with the Wizard's system and all other existing baccarat count systems is due to an assumption that the basic structure of the pack remains intact, an assumption which becomes very inaccurate at deep penetration when multiple ranks are missing.

Note that other analysis of baccarat count systems (eg Thorp's Mathematics Of Gambling, Griffin's Theory Of Blackjack) predated modern computing power and so would have only been able to create non-linear systems with the available technology.


The Relationship Between Ranks Remaining And Advantage

A theoretical comment: note that the primary factor in determining advantage on the tie wager is the number of ranks remaining. The absolute minimum number of ranks remaining, one, would naturally yield an advantage of 800% on the tie, the largest possible advantage.

Looking at the above examples tie advantage decreases with the number of ranks remaining. With only tens and one rank remaining your advantage will be in the hundreds of %, with two still generally over 100%, under 100% with three, and becoming increasingly marginal or non-existent with four or five.

However, the relationship between the ranks remaining is also important, so a system based solely on remaining ranks would likely not be viable by itself. To win consistently requires a highly accurate knowledge of the relationship between ranks in depleted decks. It is not a simple matter to do this and requires a lot of tedious rote memorization.

The last two examples show how the addition or subtraction of one rank can make an enormous difference to your expected value. In the "all-evens" subset case for example, advantage is over 60%. With the restoration of the 5's to the pack, the advantage is reduced to a miserly 6%. "

Its software from the old lee jones prdictor system which is not that great for practice but is good for these types of results. By the way, If you have a huge absence of "ANY" pip card and a huge absence of 0 value cards the ties are over 40% with 7's being around 45%. So in other words if you had a shoe with only sevens and zero cards there would be 45% ties. So maybe just watch face cards and 7's. BUT I CAUTION ONCE AGAIN--THIS ONLY FOR S**TS AND GIGGLES. ANY ATTEMPT TO PREDICT TIES MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR BANKROLL.

Im not sure that you can really use it to any great advantage, but i think you could safely say that the chances of a tie increase when ther a large number of 7's and zero value cards in the deck.You may could try to use this to your advantage by splitting the shoe into four sections--say every 18-20 hands.If few sevens and zeros at these points, you may be seeing a tie soon. Probably a load of BS, but then again...

Will you run the sim with the show containing only 10s and 5s? I want to see if John May if full of it

If it comes out good, then the Wizard is full of it.

TheArchitect

P.S. Georgia, I might try this tonight at BlackOrchid...

Just make a chart 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 and underneath have 32 (or 128 for 10) tick marks, and scratch them off as they come out..

tens and fives only i got 49.88%. I wonder why so high on fives?

So John May is right and The Wizard/Thorpe/Griffen were wrong..

This is good new for us...

Hurricane,

I posted this on VLSroulette today, and will repeat it here... as this thread is a throwback to a year ago here, when the conversations were much more lively about this board's main purpose... and at a more-interesting level of comprehension.

************************************************** ******

"What do most of us want?

As for getting at something profitable, I think the idea here has to be to eventually simplify our ideas, and the development of those, on the journey to/from the complex... only found in the related academia.

Can't simplify what isn't complex, simple stuff won't work (here), and the masses require simplicity to function. (I, myself, can vouch for that process, with the most-amazing-ever new progress with my baccarat in specific, and gambling/gaming in general... people, it just takes time, BUT NOT the YEARS of "shooting in the dark" THE OTHER WAYS.)"

************************************************** ******

Indeed, trying to find out how each of the card-ranks, and the interaction of those various sub-sets of, w/i the different possible types/degrees of deck-compositions can lead to many interesting results... never know when something, one or two little pieces, of all of that so-called (by most here) too-hard-to-understand stuff will turn out to be a vital part of another part of total "the answer".

That's the true excitement of all of this... the "seeing things" stage, after having meticulously done the related academic stuff. Only the "hunger" of not "selling out", etc, keeps one at it long enough. (There's nothing wrong with selling your "story" after proving yourself a few times in the casinos, as did Thorp... who made his big money there by selling a million "pamphlets" (at a dolloar apiece) which worked well for bj, then, as the crowds gathered around him. Myself, i'm a player... if i can no longer play it, i'll hire another to play it for me; because, unlike Thorp, i have no doubt that others will no time soon make the same independent discoveries.
Furthermore, i'll always have the Ellises to ensure that, right? LOL.)

I now have the right MM... and yesterday, put another "2 and 2" together wrt finally beating the ASM's (shufflers). Only to concentrate a little more on finishing combining/reducing/simplifying my bet-selection methods, mostly from that which i have already included in the private section.

For that, one gets for being mostly(?) ridiculed/ignored by those on the more-serious boards, and the johno's (, who just keep talking to each other, each thinking he's the lead one, being "listened to",) on the much-smaller boards. But this must be part of that overall process, seeing what's already out there to then seek out those "one or two" connections. I could've played the game another 15 years, but not have even stumbled upon all the "crazy incentives" found here, out in the public.

And i'd do it again, because that's what it takes, "sticking your neck out" a bit with the research, putting out all the possibly-relevant ideas. Even when most of those will never have any use, and mean something only to the academics, or at the other end, the few who HAVE ACTUALLY PLAYED THIS GAME FOR MANY YEARS WITH REAL MONEY IN MANY DIFFERENT CASINOS... and waiting for the right system(s).

Garnabby,

You are a really smart guy and you have made some valid points and valuable contributions.

Everybody who views this board comes from different levels of life experience, baccarat experience etc. They come from different trades and professions each with their own codes and disciplines.

For these reasons and others I do not believe despite all efforts we will find a single holy grail. But I think it may be possible for each player to find their own successful style of play. And to contribute to that, like you do, is worthwile.

Each person should pick out bits and pieces from the information they receive here and decide what to keep and what to throw away. Through this process we ALL become better even though we may not agree on all point etc.

This forum should not be a pissing contest. It should a place where [eople who have a common hobbie come to share, compare, learn and teach in a respectful way so that we can ALL be profitable baccarat players.

Thanks for your input. I learn from everybody I meet.

Guys, I can tell you from real experience, if you do this, you will get heat.
The same people in surveillance that watch BJ are watching baccarat,

a) Once you go to a spread of 20 to 1, they are looking at you.
b) If you think you can sit there and not play, you are wrong.
Sure there are people who watch, but look at how they play. They are not card counters.

I have been shuffled up on , had bets pushed back, and told I had to play every hand or leave the table.

Could a team or partners do this. Maybe. You need lots of tables
to spread this around. I have seen this being done at Foxwoods, and
Mohegan Sun. Spotters sitting at several tables calling in the big player
when the time was right. Not practical when they only have one or two tables. Also not good on Saturday night when all the seats are taken.

Most casinos are cutting out about 40 cards or more from the back of the shoe. This hurts their profits because they get less playing time for the time lost shuffling etc. but they do it because the tie bet has already been attacked by card counters. THIS IS NOT NEW.

PS. About the Wizard. He is an actuary who can tell you a top of the shoe analysis. He does nothing in the way of dynamic analysis, ie, rates of change or any studies once the game gets going. He is in the business of setting up web sites, getting viewers, then selling advertising space.
At least he is not selling phoney systems, but his analysis is superficial.

I agree with that Profbac. Some of the Wizzard's numbers would do a player more harm than good. Also, Georgia's 0,6,7 and 0,8,9 are far more logical than the Wizzard's tie numbers as well as more likely and easier to count.

BTW, a pit boss and dealer team working for us at seminars told me over martinis that the real casino monitors are upstairs watching a bank of cameras. They phone in directives to the pit boss. Casinos are far more organized against us than most suspect.

Oh, and what those guys could do with a BJ shuffle and a bac shuffle would astound you. They could produce chop or streak at will. They could also shuffle the tens to the top or the bottom or behind the cut off card at will assuming a center cut. They taught me to never cut the same way twice.

I once had a perfectly smoothe dealer get fired right in the middle of a BJ game at Showboat, AC. If dealers have no control, why did they fire him? If all shuffles shuffle to random, why do they have many different standard shuffles? Makes no sense.

Have you ever played at a casino where the cards are brought out pre shuffled in the back room, "to save time." The dealer doesn't wash the cards, only does a riffle or two , then asks you to cut.
They do this in the high limit rooms like the Venetian in LV. and the
Mohegan. I noticed that the Mohegan was not consistent with this.
If you are sitting at the same table four five hours or more, either
get up and go elsewhwere, or certainly change your style of play.

Originally Posted by Profbac

Have you ever played at a casino where the cards are brought out pre shuffled in the back room, "to save time." The dealer doesn't wash the cards, only does a riffle or two , then asks you to cut.
They do this in the high limit rooms like the Venetian in LV. and the
Mohegan. I noticed that the Mohegan was not consistent with this.
If you are sitting at the same table four five hours or more, either
get up and go elsewhwere, or certainly change your style of play.

I've seen this in BJ, but never in Bac, thats not to say they don't do it.. I personally wouldn't play any shoe that was "pre"shuffled.

What are some of the better places to play Bac in LV Profbac?

So to this point this is what I take away from this discussion.

1) There are times when ,at least statistically , ties are more likely than at other times as John May has said.

2) Thes highest expectation of a tie would be when there are many fjves and 0 value cards that have not been in play.

3.) Tie is still a bad bet, it may just happen that there are times when it is less bad.

4.) The Wizard of Odds numbers, at least in this instance, are not useful.

5.) Attempts to count cards in live play, even at baccarat, may draw unwanted attention.

6.) Ties are likely best to be left alone all together. At best, they should be made after reaching your target with a small amount of profit. For example Your target was $200.00. You made $350.00(continued to play out a run etc.) You decide $100 playback is acceptable and conditions are right for a tie. You make 4 tie bets of $25.

You are almost right.
Don't give up yet.
The tie does reach a point of having a very good staistical advantage,
but realistically only when you are down to the last 30 or fewer cards.
I track the 8, 9 and 10, with a good deal os sucess when I do bet the tie.
In practice, I only bet the tie a few time a month.
I do but in a good size bet. If I hit it, I make a big deal of how luck I was, I was getting ready to leave and felt lucky. Then I move on.

For me, it is a nice side show when the opportunity arises.

John May is worth reading.
He lost credibility in my mind when he started advertising himself as "The Most Feared Man in The Casino."

Yea , right, they are afraid of you.

There is a fellow on one of the card counting sites who claims to be John May. I used to read his posts. That fellow sounded like the real thing.

Forget the Wizard. I have read more creative thinking on this site.
He is good for beginners. I don't know why people quote him like an expert.

Originally Posted by TheArchitect

I've seen this in BJ, but never in Bac, thats not to say they don't do it.. I personally wouldn't play any shoe that was "pre"shuffled.

What are some of the better places to play Bac in LV Profbac?

If you are in AC, Showboat and Caesars will use a pre shuffled deck at the midiback ($50 table in Showboat, $100 table at Carsars).
Mohegan Sun has used on me at the Casino of the Sky, high limit room.

In Las Vegas, all of the MGM casinos have the dealer arbitrarily cutting out the back of the shoe. If you ask, they say, only half a deck.
When I have played, it was always more. Same at the Wynn.

All the HET properties count 14 from the back and play one hand through the cut card. Also Treasure Island, Venetian, Planet Hollywood,
and Golden Nugget.

More on the wizard

If you look on games other than baccarat, the wizard makes some contradictory claims. There are a few games he says offer the player very low house take, as long as the player uses "optimal strategy".

Optimal strategy. Gee Mr. Wizard, can you tell us the optimal strategy.
Well, No, I havent figured it out.
Well, how the hell did you come up with these low house advantages on some of these carnival games.
I sent him an email and asked.
He is not responding.

I did note that the games he likes for the player are from the Company Shufflemaster. I wonder if there is a connection.

If you want some easy reading, get the Lyle Stuart books on Baccarat.
Lyle is real old school, a player, not a systems guy. Today he is considered out of date, (he passed away several years ago.)
He was at one time a 1% owner in the Alladin in LV.

We both happen to live in the same neighborhood, and I was introduced to him some time in the summer of 1985. He was getting into card counting for BJ and I was seriously into that in those days.
I asked him about Bac since he played and wrote a book.
He told me that he knew several very smart gamblers who kept a count of 8,9, and 10, looking for tie bet opportunuties. Typically at the end of the shoe they bet player and tie.

These weren't professional bac players, just businessmen who like to play .The game was a diversion from poker or other games.
They didn't have a computer program just real good card sense.

Same for BJ. Do you think there were people who figured out single deck strategy before Thorpe wrote his book.

My persoanl best at the tie was two years ago at TI in LV. I almost never play the tie. I estimated that there were only 10s an a few 8s in the deck.
I bet $500 on tie and the dealer draws six tens. $4,000 profit.
Next I bet $3,000 on tie, and again six tens came out. $24,000.
That was the last hand. Floor person and dealer are looking at each other
then back at me. I knew I was done there. I said "look at the last cards. I will bet there are 4 tens and 2 8s left." They are not supposed to show you the last cards. The floor person nods to the dealer, who looks but will not show me. She looks at me and smiles. "You are very good".
The floor guy, who was young and not yet a Vegas hard case, smiled and said "that was quite a show". " If you come back here, you will be considered trespassing. "

That is a darn good story--and you know what...I actually believe it!!

Ok--I was about done with this topic, but have a couple of other comments. I'm also a poker player too. And in poker as you know we talk about odds and implied odds. I think that you have to take implied odds into account as well when talking about ties. I'm saying to break even you must hit 1 in 8 tries to break even which is 12.5%. If you get into those rare situations where the likliehood of a tie creeps above or approaches 12.5%, contrary to popular belief, you should bet tie based on implied odds. Kinda like moving in on a flush draw and getting called by the straight. Most times youre gonna miss, but when you hit it will be a good hit. Not a perfect analogy but I think you see my point.