Thread: Otb4l and tb4l switches

I want to start a serious discussion about OTB4L AND TB4L without arguing.

First, we know that any hand played after the 3rd hand in a shoe is either TB4L or OTB4L Playing one or the other all by itself will not win without other factors included.

The biggest problem I see is that whatever side you are playing, it can switch to the other side without warning for various durations of hands. You can attempt to create a switch method such as 3 losses in a row or 4 losses in a row etc but this will not work either. The switch method will not work because there is no way to set a progression that is appropriate. We don't know if the switch will last 3 hands, 4 hands, 5 hands or whatever.

Ellis claims that more shoes will continue on a trend once it's been set. I claim that it is 50/50. I have no data to back this up other than common logic. I am wondering if anyone has ever run a test over thousands of shoes to verify this one way or the other. It would be very easy to do, just run the program to track OTB4L after it has gone positive in the beginning of a shoe and see if the trend continues. If anyone has ever run such a test I would love to see it.

If the trends are 50/50 then we are back to the main problem of trying to switch with the trend of the shoe. I really don't think it's possible to do and win long term. If the trends are not 50/50 and stay consistent in more shoes than not, then we can say Ellis has a point with scouting out shoes and casinos that are heavy toward one side or the other.

What do you think?

And actually if Ellis is correct then it would be very very easy to play his methods. It's so simple I don't think anyone has thought of it. Just take two scorecards and run TB4L AND OTB4L separately. When one gets ahead early in the shoe jump on it. You should win more then you lose according to Ellis. Of course you would need a loss limit for the shoes that keep switching to stay out of trouble.

I have been working with this. I have a collection of actual shoes played
which exeeds 200,000 hands (not shoes) from AC and CT,
Separately about 30,000 hands from Las Vegas.

It is early to tell but for now I am liking the switch on a loss of three,
four stays to long with a losing trend.

I am using flat bets for now, and will eventually do a study of streaks, looking for a progression that might fit.

This does outperform using just the one before last .
I have tried two before last by itself, and that was really bad. The combo is interesting.

I have put this on the computer, all I will say is that it is interesting

I just this minute finished a private lesson on OTB4L so let me give you a couple tips while its fresh in my mind:

I think the most important aspect is how long to make your primary OTB4L prog, 2 bets or 3 bets. The key is 4 in a rows straight or ZZ counted correctly. Two 1 in a rows make a 4 ZZ. Normal straight 4's are 1 every 32 plays. Same for ZZ 4s. But you can't wait for the shoe to be half over to make a judgement. Go by columns of 20. If 4s are running close to 1 per column or better 4s are high. Make your OTB4L prog 3 plays. That makes the culprit 5s instead of 4s.

But look at ZZ 4s and straight 4s separately. You might end up say with a 3 bet prog against straight runs and a 2 bet prog for ZZs or vice versa.

Now a 3 bet prog does not have to be 123. Many of the guys prefer 1, 1.5, 2. or $10, $15, $20 or $100, $150, $200.

Next thing is runless shoes. What if you just aren't seeing any runs to speak of??? Fine, don't go OTR at all. Either skip the bet entirely or stay OTB4L. Or maybe you are seeing ZZs but not straights: Always treat them separately.

Next maybe you're seeing 4s and 5s at that table but very few 6s or 7. I go OTR for 1 bet and win or lose I'm back to OTB4L but if that causes me to lose 2 more OTB4L due to a surprise long run I go right back on the run but this time I stay until I lose.

Table selection: I ALWAYS look for the chopiest table I can find. THAT IS WHY I prefer early morning new card play. Sometimes I'm seeing so many ZZ runs that I'll go OTR and stay there after ONE losing bet against a ZZ instead of 2 or 3.

What does OTB4L like best? Twos and threes and single ones and long runs.

I always start with 3 bets against straight runs until and if I hit my first straight 5. Somtimes you never do and end up with a 30 unit shoe.

I play it U1D2 M2. If I can't find a table good enough to support that prog I'll either play a different system like RD1 or go play BJ.

I know thats all a lot for new guys to remember but the thing is its all plain common sense. The more you do it the more sense it all makes and the better you get at it.

What does it lose to? Highly TB4L favorable shoes. It can withstand quite a bit of TB4L favorability but it has its eventual limitations. In that case PLAY TB4L.

Now I know a handful of you think Pit Boss is whacko. Garnabby has you afraid to try anything. AND Pit Boss is not yet playing it the best possible way. But I suspect his tales are accurate because they reflect my own experience with this system. I haven't lost a single trip with it since I started playing it 4 years ago but, mind you, I'm VERY selective. I don't mind not playing. Thats what BJ is for. I always win at BJ and todays game is the easiest it ever was.

But playing OTB4L exactly as described above I've had several trips where I won every single shoe but my overall is about 80%. I've had 100% winning trips both Tunica (Gold Strike) and Vegas Gold Coast. All under the watchful eyes of my players playing right along side me.

Cash Mgt. Playing U1D2 M2 I use -8 and +20 for a full shoe, Partials I use +10. The whole trick is to mold the system to the table you are playing and select the right table to begin with. When I find myself at a particularly good table I'll move up to U1D1 M3 B2. I shoot for +30.

Dawg, I repect your non commital on table stability but I've been playing this game since its inception in the US 30 years ago. After tens of thousands of shoes all over the world I know what I'm talking about. To me table stability is a well known long standing fact of life, not an opinion. Every table? - no. But certainly enough.

Now I know Garnabby has some of you actually believing that all of the players on my forum lie and the ones from this forum start lieing as soon as they get on my forum. Now I'd like you to use your own heads for a minute. Don't you see how absolutely ridiculous that is? You need to stop letting this loser lead you around by the nose. He's a pied piper who says anything that enters his head he thinks will make him famous with no thought or caution or proof whatsoever. Jesus 4th grade math stumped him.

I do agree that early morning cards are more choppy--right after the decks are changed out are the choppiest. And why is this Ellis?

Originally Posted by thegeorgiahurricane

I do agree that early morning cards are more choppy--right after the decks are changed out are the choppiest. And why is this Ellis?

In general casino profits are highest with choppy cards. They are highest with runless cards because they rule out whole tables getting on a run and pressing their bets. Also players bet against each other more in runless cards. So casinos favor morning card preps that produce runless cards. They have massive amounts of cause and effect data to work from. But they can't keep doing that forever because runless cards are highly, highly susceptible to OTB4L. So now and then they'll change the card preps to streak for a short while.

When you are privvy to inside information you quickly learn that casinos are far sharper than they appear and the quarterly bottom line is everything just like any other Corporation. That is why casino Managers are so highly paid and the job is so highly competitive much like football coaches of top teams both at pro and college levels. That is also why top pro Bac players are so interested in the morning card preps. It pays to know.

Originally Posted by DAWGPEN

And actually if Ellis is correct then it would be very very easy to play his methods. It's so simple I don't think anyone has thought of it. Just take two scorecards and run TB4L AND OTB4L separately. When one gets ahead early in the shoe jump on it. You should win more then you lose according to Ellis. Of course you would need a loss limit for the shoes that keep switching to stay out of trouble.

Very clever Dawg! Actually I teach a very close approximation of that which is a whole lot simpler. We start by net betting OTB4L vs TB4L with a low level prog. As soon as one prog emerges strongest we drop the offending prog. But I'm getting too far into proprietary information here. Sorry Keith.

Sorry call me ignorance I have ready Ellie's posting but I am still not 100% of what is TB4L AND OTB4L? Can anyone explain to me like a 6 year old? Anything with examples will be better.

Originally Posted by Profbac

I have been working with this. I have a collection of actual shoes played
which exeeds 200,000 hands (not shoes) from AC and CT,
Separately about 30,000 hands from Las Vegas.

It is early to tell but for now I am liking the switch on a loss of three,
four stays to long with a losing trend.

I am using flat bets for now, and will eventually do a study of streaks, looking for a progression that might fit.

This does outperform using just the one before last .
I have tried two before last by itself, and that was really bad. The combo is interesting.

I have put this on the computer, all I will say is that it is interesting

Excellent Profbac and there is one major improvement you can easily make right off the bat. Don't decide on two or three losing bets before the shoe. Let the shoe tell you which is better in the shoe at hand. Some shoes highly favor two losses and some highly favor three losses. Elementary my dear Watson.

If you always stick to only one of the two choices, your shoes will merely break even in the long run But, you'll quickly see that as soon as you add that simple element of discretion, suddenly you win. You can easily program both ways on a computer and play 1000 shoes and compare. You will see what I mean immediately.

That is the difference between purely mechanical and discretionary systems. Purely mechanical ALWAYS breaks even in the long run. Also be sure to use real casino shoes. RGs will break even either way.
But again, I'm getting into proprietary information. Somebody stop me. Where's Garnabby when you need him?

TB4L ( time before last ) is just betting the decision of 2 decisions back. If last two decisions are PP, then TB4L bet is P.( B4 actually means before )

OTb4L is just opposite two decisions ago, so if last two decisions are
BP, then the bet is P.

Originally Posted by bossiiiii

Sorry call me ignorance I have ready Ellie's posting but I am still not 100% of what is TB4L AND OTB4L? Can anyone explain to me like a 6 year old? Anything with examples will be better.

Ha, you won't need examples. TB4L stands for Time Before Last. You simply bet on whichever side won the hand before last. OTB4L is Opposite TB4L. You bet on the side that lost the hand before last. Its a 400 year old concept.

Well said Tom! Better than mine.

Originally Posted by Ellis

In general casino profits are highest with choppy cards. They are highest with runless cards because they rule out whole tables getting on a run and pressing their bets. Also players bet against each other more in runless cards. So casinos favor morning card preps that produce runless cards. They have massive amounts of cause and effect data to work from. But they can't keep doing that forever because runless cards are highly, highly susceptible to OTB4L. So now and then they'll change the card preps to streak for a short while.

When you are privvy to inside information you quickly learn that casinos are far sharper than they appear and the quarterly bottom line is everything just like any other Corporation. That is why casino Managers are so highly paid and the job is so highly competitive much like football coaches of top teams both at pro and college levels. That is also why top pro Bac players are so interested in the morning card preps. It pays to know.

BTW that also explains why OTB4L will beat out TB4L more often than not, esp. in the morning. See, again, it pays to know!

Okay call me igorance again.... I just want to get to the bottom of this:

if the last 2 hands are PP, TB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are BP, TB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are BB, TB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are PB, TB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are PP, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are BP, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are BB, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are PB, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are P-P, TB4L would be P?
if the last 4 hands are B-P-, TB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are B-B, TB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are P-B, TB4L would be P?
if the last 6 hands are P--P--, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 10 hands are B-------P-, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 5 hands are -B-B--, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 3 hands are P-B, OTB4L would be B?

Please correct me if I am wrong....

Originally Posted by tomddxx

TB4L ( time before last ) is just betting the decision of 2 decisions back. If last two decisions are PP, then TB4L bet is P.( B4 actually means before )

OTb4L is just opposite two decisions ago, so if last two decisions are
BP, then the bet is P.

Sorry, but I'm not familiar with these acronyms. Can you define OTB4L and TB4L.

TB4L is time before last. So if you have P,B the next play would be P since it was the play before the last play which was the B.

OTB4L is opposite time before last. So if you have P,B again, the next play would be B because it was the opposite of the play (P) before the last play which was B

f the last 2 hands are PP, TB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are BP, TB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are BB, TB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are PB, TB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are PP, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are BP, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are BB, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are PB, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are P-P, TB4L would be P?
if the last 4 hands are B-P-, TB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are B-B, TB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are P-B, TB4L would be P?
if the last 6 hands are P--P--, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 10 hands are B-------P-, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 5 hands are -B-B--, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 3 hands are P-B, OTB4L would be B?

The last 8 examples above with the - signs are wrong. You only look at the last 2 hands to determine Otb4l or tb4l. All other examples are correct.

Originally Posted by bossiiiii

Okay call me igorance again.... I just want to get to the bottom of this:

if the last 2 hands are PP, TB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are BP, TB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are BB, TB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are PB, TB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are PP, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are BP, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are BB, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are PB, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are P-P, TB4L would be P?
if the last 4 hands are B-P-, TB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are B-B, TB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are P-B, TB4L would be P?
if the last 6 hands are P--P--, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 10 hands are B-------P-, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 5 hands are -B-B--, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 3 hands are P-B, OTB4L would be B?

Please correct me if I am wrong....

I believe you are correct but I think you are making it more difficult than it really is.

TB4L is time before last so you skip one hand back and you would be betting the same
so if the previous two hands were BB then you would be betting B
if the previous two hands were PB you would be betting P
understand?

OTB4L is just the opposite

BB you would be betting P
PB you would be betting B
PP you would be betting B
BP you would be betting P

that's it. Nothing more to it and you don't need to go any further back then two back. I am not sure why you put 10 or 5 in your examples.

Those are ties. I guess what I am trying to get to is that if tie counts?

Would tie have any anything with TB4L? What if you last 2 hands are ties (--) then what would you bet? Don't tell me you will bet tie when your last 2 hands are tie tie (ie. --)

Originally Posted by tomddxx

f the last 2 hands are PP, TB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are BP, TB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are BB, TB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are PB, TB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are PP, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 2 hands are BP, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are BB, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 2 hands are PB, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are P-P, TB4L would be P?
if the last 4 hands are B-P-, TB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are B-B, TB4L would be B?
if the last 3 hands are P-B, TB4L would be P?
if the last 6 hands are P--P--, OTB4L would be B?
if the last 10 hands are B-------P-, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 5 hands are -B-B--, OTB4L would be P?
if the last 3 hands are P-B, OTB4L would be B?

The last 8 examples above with the - signs are wrong. You only look at the last 2 hands to determine Otb4l or tb4l. All other examples are correct.

You ignore the ties. The ties have nothing to do with it just like they never happened

Just ignore any tie's...

Example if you are playing TB4L
BTTB you would be betting B because you ignore the ties which really makes the hands for you still BB

Cool. Now it's crystal clear. Thanks all.

Good job guys! That's how a forum should be, helpful and courteous. It's not a debate or a popularity contest. People just want to know.

Hi DAWGPEN,

I am wondering why you would need 2 scorecards? The reverse of TB4L is OTB4L, so if you won 3 and lost 5 so far with TB4L, it means you would win 5 and lost 3 with OTB4L. With one scorecard you would know which one is ahead...

Originally Posted by DAWGPEN

And actually if Ellis is correct then it would be very very easy to play his methods. It's so simple I don't think anyone has thought of it. Just take two scorecards and run TB4L AND OTB4L separately. When one gets ahead early in the shoe jump on it. You should win more then you lose according to Ellis. Of course you would need a loss limit for the shoes that keep switching to stay out of trouble.

Originally Posted by bossiiiii

Hi DAWGPEN,

I am wondering why you would need 2 scorecards? The reverse of TB4L is OTB4L, so if you won 3 and lost 5 so far with TB4L, it means you would win 5 and lost 3 with OTB4L. With one scorecard you would know which one is ahead...

You don't need two scorecards it would just make it easier to see which side was doing better.

Hi Ellis,
What is OTR in your terminology?

OTR = On the Run

I'm sure Ellis will have an explanation and example though

Right, recognize that when you are playing OTB4L only half of all plays are OTB4L plays while the other half are TB4L. And this ratio varies widely from shoe to shoe. OTB4L bets against ALL runs, straight AND ZZ, once THEY have gone two plays. That is why OTB4L prefers runless shoes which are often common right after the morning card prep.

We are always striving to win more bets than we lose. If we only made OTB4L bets we would only win half our bets overall - not good overall but VERY good in a runless shoe (shoes that have no or few 4 or mores straight or ZZ). We can opt to change the definition of "runless" to no 5 or mores by simply changing our OTB4L prog (progression) to 3 bets instead of 2. 123 for instance or 1,1.5,2.

But if we never switch our bets to TB4L (on the run) (OTR) we can only beat ideal shoes and we will break even overall. So the trick is to judge in the shoe at hand IF and when we should bet OTR. We judge based on the runs we are seeing in the shoe at hand. And we must judge straight and ZZ runs separately.

Thats why its important to know what normal runs is. Normal straight 4s are 1 every 32 plays. ZZs are the same. Normal straight 5s are one every 64 plays. ZZs are the same WHEN YOU COUNT ZZs CORRECTLY. That is why its important to know how to count ZZs correctly. Two 1's make a 4 ZZ, not a 3 ZZ.

Now once you successfully bet OTR you are faced with another judgement. Should I stay OTR until I lose or should I go back to OTB4L? Practice and experience will teach you how to make all of these judgements correctly and then you can achieve about an 80% win rate.

The most important thing of all is to know how to select the best table in the casino in the first place and to know that sometimes there aren't any.

The second most important thing to know is when to make your prog 2 bets and when to make it 3 bets and on rare occassions only 1 bet. But the more you practice and play this system the better you get at making each of these judgements.

We ALL wish there were no judgements to make BUT show me a system that makes no judgements and I'll show you a break even system.

so sorry for posting even though it's not the right place. I just want to ask if anyone knows if the site of Lee Jones system is real or not? I paid 300 and didn't get anything.