Thread: Something that might be helpful

Here is something that might be helpful to everyone. When ever the B or the P hits 6 times in the begining of a shoe. 66% of the time the shoe will favor the B or the P. Example: The shoe starts out like this PBPBBPBBPB. Banker came up 6 times before Player. Now 66% of the time the shoe will favor Banker when it hits 6 times before Player. Now dont hold me to this. I tested this on 1000 8 deck shoes from the Wizzard of Odds computer generated shoes. I dont know if this holds up true to Live shoes. Maybe someone that has recorded live shoes can put some insight on this theory.

Originally Posted by graylove

Here is something that might be helpful to everyone. When ever the B or the P hits 6 times in the begining of a shoe. 66% of the time the shoe will favor the B or the P. Example: The shoe starts out like this PBPBBPBBPB. Banker came up 6 times before Player. Now 66% of the time the shoe will favor Banker when it hits 6 times before Player. Now dont hold me to this. I tested this on 1000 8 deck shoes from the Wizzard of Odds computer generated shoes. I dont know if this holds up true to Live shoes. Maybe someone that has recorded live shoes can put some insight on this theory.

GL it is a good observation maybe and who knows this may be a statistical quirk in the game of baccarat but why would it favour the dominant did you try the 6 deck shoes that are there

Hmmm, In other words whatever is ahead stays ahead. I don't know about random generators but you are usually right in real Baccarat.

Well I came up with 66% of the shoes stay ahead in 1000 shoes. But who knows if the next 1000 shoes hold up to this theory. Or does this even work on real shoes vs generated shoes. So far so good. I would love to be able to flat bet and be able to afford my wife.LOL

Originally Posted by graylove

Here is something that might be helpful to everyone. When ever the B or the P hits 6 times in the begining of a shoe. 66% of the time the shoe will favor the B or the P. Example: The shoe starts out like this PBPBBPBBPB. Banker came up 6 times before Player. Now 66% of the time the shoe will favor Banker when it hits 6 times before Player. Now dont hold me to this. I tested this on 1000 8 deck shoes from the Wizzard of Odds computer generated shoes. I dont know if this holds up true to Live shoes. Maybe someone that has recorded live shoes can put some insight on this theory.

Interesting......Now the question is : what profit do u made on that 1000 shoes?
Can u tell us?

Originally Posted by graylove

When ever the B or the P hits 6 times in the begining of a shoe. 66% of the time the shoe will favor the B or the P.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but not quite true. Not if you make it an apples to apples comparison. If you give a horse a 1 furlong lead, yes it will win 66% of the time. But does it win by 2 furlongs or 2 lengths?

I wrote a quick program to test this theory against my own past shoes, plus the zumma 600 and 1000 data. 65% of the time the side that reached 6 first had a higher total in the end. But only 52% of the time did the side that reached 6 first continue to outpace the opponent to the end of the race. So the true number should be 52%. Not enough to bank on (pun intended).

Originally Posted by fulkgl

Sorry to burst your bubble, but not quite true. Not if you make it an apples to apples comparison. If you give a horse a 1 furlong lead, yes it will win 66% of the time. But does it win by 2 furlongs or 2 lengths?

I wrote a quick program to test this theory against my own past shoes, plus the zumma 600 and 1000 data. 65% of the time the side that reached 6 first had a higher total in the end. But only 52% of the time did the side that reached 6 first continue to outpace the opponent to the end of the race. So the true number should be 52%. Not enough to bank on (pun intended).

Hey fulkgl,

Could you email me the zumma 600 and 1000 data? Thank in advance.

TheArchitect

I have stayed away from this forum because of all the fighting going on, I finally joined today because graylove is on to something of interest. You are right graylove. I started looking back at my REAL shoes and it didnt look good from the start. But I kept looking into your theory and yes you are correct. After 500 shoes the shoe that hits the first 6 will stay ahead 66% of the time. I want to commend you for a job well done.

Email me gamblermadman. You will be amazed at what I know. Its basic math. I also want to let you know that im married with children and im not gay. If your not gay and want to discuss baccarat than email me: graylove4@gmail.com

I'd like to pitch in here with the Patterson story one more time. This story was not popular with the leadership of this forum at the time who proclaimed, W/O any proof whatsoever, that the game is purely random. Perhaps you newer smarter guys will see the lesson in it.

Jerry Patterson's first Bac system was simple. Count P vs B the first half of the shoe and bet whichever side is behind will catch up in the second half.

Now if the cards were random you would expect such a player to break even over time.

That's not what happened. They lost nearly every shoe to the point that Patterson had to pay back every buyer's $8000. Which he DID BTW.

Do you see my point?

Here is a relative post from my forum:


E. Clifton Davis

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Re: SYSTEM 0 Questions/Answers

That 60 page multi system 1993 manual sold for $3000 a copy and I sold 4 or 500 of them. I wrote 12 others. NO one else was teaching Baccarat in those days and I was the only source. Those systems were nearly purely mechanical but they reflected the casino strategy of that era. Casinos, in unison would deal chop for a year or two, then streak, then mixed. My manuals reflected whatever the casinos were doing when I wrote the manual. They were highly successful.

But casinos are smarter today. Today we need to decipher the casino strategy each day and each table and then watch for the worm to turn. But these new "experts" who claim the game is random and the casino has no control just don't know because they weren't there. I was playing full time then and was often away from home months at a time. I KNOW what casinos are capable of. And they are even more capable today. It's not random! Play what you see and you can win! That is why today I'm teaching you multiple systems, each with multiple variations.

We had the only winners in the world then and we have the only winners in the world now. EVERYONE else is playing break even purely mehanical progressions and daring you to stick it out. Unfortunately, some do. Betting high is not the answer. Betting low on the trend of the shoe at hand, IS.

BeatTheCasino
ellis@beatthecasino.com

Hi Graylove,

Your observation that whichever reach six first shall be the dominant one with 66%, is a brilliant contribution as I can confirm it at the Malaysian casino after observing many baccarat results here.

Can anyone please contribute to developing a winning system based on this 66% statistical ground?

Originally Posted by graylove

Well I came up with 66% of the shoes stay ahead in 1000 shoes. But who knows if the next 1000 shoes hold up to this theory. Or does this even work on real shoes vs generated shoes. So far so good. I would love to be able to flat bet and be able to afford my wife.LOL

is it the same with b 20 P 15 in the middle shoe ?

Think about this logically... if it was true that Player or Banker had a 66% chance of winning the rest of the shoe after showing up 6 times before Player or Banker the game would be beat and the casinos would not run it anymore.

Casino mathematicians/consultants are not dumb. If this was a possibility they would of known it existed before the game was put into play and hence not put it into play to begin with.

The game is completely random. The entire deck could run all Bankers if it wanted to... likely? No. Possible? Yes. Anything is possible which makes a 66% edge impossible.

You could run 1 billion hands in a simulator, look at the first 6 cards and see an edge, or what you believe to be an edge. In the end it's entirely random so no matter how many hands you run it's irrelevant to a certain degree.

I don't mean to be harsh, I'm just giving my input on this topic.

Originally Posted by graylove

Here is something that might be helpful to everyone. When ever the B or the P hits 6 times in the begining of a shoe. 66% of the time the shoe will favor the B or the P. Example: The shoe starts out like this PBPBBPBBPB. Banker came up 6 times before Player. Now 66% of the time the shoe will favor Banker when it hits 6 times before Player. Now dont hold me to this. I tested this on 1000 8 deck shoes from the Wizzard of Odds computer generated shoes. I dont know if this holds up true to Live shoes. Maybe someone that has recorded live shoes can put some insight on this theory.

66%, really??