Is it? Is the game truly random or is there an exploitable bias? Can it be both?

Ellis, you know the game for 25 years and claim to be a sort of "guru." So perhaps you would like to weigh in on this topic. We don't expect proofs so no harassment! This is a very interesting topic.

Let's keep this on topic, OK?

Archer

We just have to accept that this game cannot be beat long term.

Period.

It was designed to be bullet proof over the long term. It can ONLY be exploited short term.

And short term only.

It's not even really 50/50.

It's only 50/50 over infinity...

Anything less than infinity....it is unbeatable..not 50/50....and the house edge will tear you apart...progressions...flat betting...nothing works.

Trust me.

BUT....our creative minds....I guess we can just keep trying. Until we run out of money AND idea...lol

Anyone that saids you can win long term....is either lying...OR, hasn't tested their system on enough shoes to see it lose.

I once created a system, that won 39 hands out of every 43 bet...

that lasted for 20000 shoes...20000 shoes people!!! I was making a FORTUNE..a FORTUNEEEE.....playing 100-200 shoes a week.....then....all of a sudden...WHAM...now it wins 1-2 out of every 44 bets....I even tried going against the system....STILL NO SUCCESS...

Yeah...I am still ahead....but the ONLY way I'll stay ahead....is to stop playing. I've lost back more than half of what I earned trying to aggressively make it back.....

True story.

I agree with what he is talking about is a 50%-50% game it all depends on yourself how you attack this game.Know when to leave when you are having a bad run and know when to stop at the right time.

NeverDie14, totally agree with u. I have also simulated the shoes. What seems to be a tactic to be able to win in the short run actually lose in the end. I virtually test all the method that i or other people think possible. In the end, everthing crumbles. Baccarat is truly designed to be unbeatable in the long course, however funny thing is it gives people an illusion of a trend emerging when you play it in the short run. When u lose you just cant accept the fact that your trends have lost and makes you want to get back at it and tat makes you lose even more.

The only way to beat this game is to stop playing. When you dont lose you win.

If baccarat is exploitable in the short term (which I currently believe it is) but ends up 50-50 in the end then you can't win with 1 system. A single system will lose "in the end" after testing on 100s of shoes.

However if you correctly exploit each shoe on its own by choosing the best system for it then you are not using the same system over 100s of shoes, you are matching say 5 systems to each shoe as the shoe presents it's weakness.

If you test a system over hundreds of shoes and find that it doesn't work out in the end... Well then you found out something obvious, no system can beat everything and all systems have a weakness. You should have many systems to take advantage of many conditions, not one system and expect it to win.

So in a nutshell, I think that baccarat is 50-50 in the end, but has short term bias. Beat the bias not the overall.

Indeed.

The game sucks you in....

After posting here...I created a system that won 25 times in a row....first 15 shoes.....then, the next ten shoes, it got obliterated and never recovered!

Do you know what that would do to someone...especially someone new to systems and baccarat? It would make them,...after winning 25 times in a row....go get MORE money...thinking they had a super winning system...and then get slaughtered...

The casino games are wicked cruel!

A single system or a multi system is just another system to the eyes of the casino. Anyone think they have got the "perfect" system, the casino will gladly tell you "Welcome".

Think about it. Any system that is being sold or used today is actually a combination of a multiple system which made it seems like a single system. But do they win? No they don't. (They may win in the short run OR LOSE BIG TIME IN THE SHORT RUN).

No matter what system anyone is using. The next hand is not going to obey the previous hand. Period.

Don't be fooled that there is a trend in any shoes. Any tactic you choose at any time(tactic A or Tactic B .... or Tactic infinity) has got both its weakness and its strength when you play it. Since you can only choose a tactic at any one time, the other half can also beat you at anytime.

Exactly right ahario! Except Every Baccarat shoe ever dealt had a strongest trend in it. Every baccarat shoe ever dealt could have been beat by the RIGHT system. The trick is to know how to identify the strongest trend and know what variation of what system beats that trend.

Will you ALWAYS be right? No! But fortunately Baccarat, esp 2Hi Baccarat is not about ALWAYS. It's about USUALLY. My guys do this every trip and many players from this forum are already doing it. One of them just won his 19th shoe in a row. I think you will agree that is completely outside the envelop of random occurrence.

Oh, and BTW, for the more ridiculous among you who still think Andrea and I are the same person, here is a curious exchange:

12-29-2009, 09:16 AM wolfat
Universal Bac Player



Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Asti, Italy
Posts: 795
Downloads: 21
Uploads: 0
Rep Power: 66


Re: XMas 2009
[QUOTE=E. Clifton Davis]And a Happy New Year to you and thanks for all your help and support!

Ellis,
I'm proud to be your friend and to collaborate with this forum, I've learned so much both in technical and human aspects!
Happy new year to you and family!

andrea
__________________
bacclover

The simple trick here is realizing that hindsight has nothing to do with foresight for random events like baccarat-outcomes. Because there is a good pattern after the deal doesn't mean the whole thing wasn't random to begin with... something has to happen, some outcome afterward, but that doesn't indicate beforehand which of the outcomes it will be.

A more-complicated trick, which i posted over at vls is,

Quote from: Number Six on December 28, 2009, 10:31:46 am
How can a system be profitable to one person only? If a system is a true winner it should apply on a universal scale, ie it should work for everyone. The problem is, only very few people actually know what they're up against. They try to brute force their way through negative fluctuation by using progressions. It's medieval and demonstrates a critical lack of mathematical knowledge. Systems are designed for and suited to only one random state, be it depending on repeating numbers, chops of dozens, whatever. If the sought-after state appears and remains suspended in time, then the system will win. If the state changes, the system loses. Randomness has a myriad states and a system will only hold its own against one of them. Ultimately that's why they all fail. Bet selection needs to be flexible and reactive to the current state. Absolutely nothing else works.
To which i replied,

Very astute point... losing big isn't very different from eventually losing all bit by bit. Ie, if the outcomes over the long-run are fairly-even, better bet each of the possible oucomes rather than the same one, over and over. The latter shall (certainly) "even out" to the vig (for the house), over the long-run; whereas the former will at least allow for the possibility [only] of matching a lot, or a few, of the outcomes... to win big, or lose big. [There are some truly-reactive logical strategies, but which I will not further strive to outline in this forum.]




Yes, too much "outside the envelop", as explained in the thread, Analysis of Ellis' Latest Trip Report at Gold Strike .




Who's Wolfat? And who cares that you, he, suzanne, ADulay, et al, are the same person or not? They all say EXACTLY THE SAME silly and baccarat-void stuff anyway... that's enough for me.

Darn it. I managed to stay out of these conversations for such a long time and then you bring MY name back into it again.

Baccarat void stuff?? I don't think so. My minimal posts are always "on topic" and not generally existential as some here like to attempt to portray as a substitute for real live experience in a casino!

Also, Ellis did make a mistake in his last post. That guy didn't win 19 in a row. He won 19 out of 20. The jerk lost 8 units in his 18th shoe. He did profit just under $1500 for those 20 shoes and the largest wager was $20. Yep, he was betting that silly "2-Hi" stuff that Ellis preaches over and over on a $10 table.

The argument that all those previously mentioned people are all the same is silly in that one needs only to check the IP logs from this site to realize they're all different!

Enough for me at this time. Leave my name out of any conversation and I'll just stay in the background. Feel free to argue with anyone else, but I'll just jump in when the usual incorrect information comes up with my name attached to it.

AD (I'm the guy that had the 19 for 20)

"Bet selection needs to be flexible and reactive to the current state. Absolutely nothing else works."

Garnabby, I know you can't write but now I see your are reading and comprehension challenged as well.

He's saying precisely the same thing I said - and you chose to agree with him. You simply elect to disagree with anything I say. That should dissipate any wisp of credibility still lingering around you.

Ad, sorry I got your single loss out of sequence. 19 out of 20. Lost the 18th, not the 20th. Well don't fret over it. Your game will improve!

Hey, PJ is 20 for 20!

BTW, What were your wins in a row with these guys here???

baccarat is not a 50-50 game. i advocate target betting, but you better have a bank roll.

Exactly right! In fact we have 400 saying exactly the same thing. Some sort of mass hypnosis.

Better to be like this forum where no two people ever say the same thing and one in particular never says the same thing twice.

sil-ly (sil'e)adj happy "Webster's"

baccarat-void - a cigarette hole in the felt.

Georgia, I totally agree with all 3 of your remarks! Esp. the last one.

Ellis,
Im new to the forum and look forward to reading your posts. Im currently working on some new strategies which i wont bore anyone with. i look forward to reading your posts because i can already tell you are a real veteran. Id still be doing it full-time if i hadnt blown my bankroll on call girls and other stuff(although very fun not very smart). Any way...nice to make your aquantaince

sillE on LS-D,

Kindly show me ANY past post of yours which even hints at, let alone explains my above advice... as i explained it above. (Like that time you thought you knew why the Wizard of Odds advocated progression betting when, you're only trying to latch onto anything and everything to fit your vague, contradictory, and primitive thinking on the game.)

And oh right, you deleted all the factual ones "over there"; and keep starting over with new posts of the same old "garbage", instead of taking back up all the ones here, or "there", in which you got your "little behind kicked" beyond belief. Like you play baccarat every half year or so with your old-age cheque, and money from a few "suckers"... pretending otherwise makes no difference. Maybe also you should look into "blaming" your latest lowly station in life on the strippers, like the latest new guy, Hurricane? Or maybe you "know" that guy too?

So now, where's the "beef"... or are you trying to steal also my stuff? Is that all you have to post about in reply to it these days? Just think, in about another year, some of us will really have had the game beaten, while you're still "on the outside" scamming the hopeless losers... and nothing of your own having shaped any of that work.

Can't answer even the latest general-information question, in the thread, Query on scoring - 1st, 2nd and 3rd minor street ? Or even paraphrase what you claim to have already said above... into the best single and constant way to utilize it in actual play? (Should be on the tip the "master's" tongue, right? I'll gladly fininsh the job tomorrow while you post more nonsense in other threads, LOL.)

What a moron. Or should i write "MORONS", as under one big moron.

But excuse my honesty.

hey dude all i said was bac aint a 50-50 game. didnt know ellis was a system promoter whatever. just a guy who likes to play bac. You dont happen to work for the post office eh?

Garnabby,

Dude, try a little decaf or get back on your meds.

What in the world are you rambling on about?

AD (in for a penny, in for a pound)

LOL. Look in the mirror.

All i see from Ellis & company is, "Hey, i won the last 20 shoes." What, you guys play one hand a shoe, and hope for twenty straight wins? And we're supposed to just believe even that?

Man, i love these public and free forums.

Archer, john,

The best way to rid the scammers, those who want to argue for argument's sake, and the deluded, is to just get on with your own work(s)... as i, and some others, have obviously done regardless the nay-sayers.

If not in the main forum, then in separate groups (open to only those interested enough to ask for an invitation) listed under the "Community tab" at the top of the page.

Life isn't going to make it any easier than that.

Garn,

Man, what more proof do you want? I posted up that in 20 shoes I made $1500 on a stupid $10 table. Would you like me to do the math or will you be able to handle it yourself? Is it so hard for you to believe that people actually do win in a casino and even at a 50-50 game like baccarat? Is it so bad where you're playing now that they've even got YOU believing you can't win?

There is no need to denigrate anyone's efforts here. You apparently think that anyone who posts here is a flagrant liar, scammer or some other scum of the earth reprobate. I think I understand why the message counts don't add up to where they should. Any relevant baccarat post gets hammered by you for some reason.

So, just what is it you would like from me that would soothe your obvious problem with anyone who says they've actually taken real money OUT of a casino? Photos with the hat check girl? Me eating dinner (comped, of course), me cashing in my meager winning stake (week after week), my spreadsheet that keeps track of the basis, a photo of a dull, well used pencil from the table? What do you want?

AD (this is fun now)

Neverdie,

Hi guy! How goes it? I was perusing through the earlier messages and was surprised that our resident baccarat guru didn't jump all over that particular partial post of yours. I'm sure he would have crucified Ellis (and now me) for it.

Were you really playing 200 shoes a week?

Figuring a very fast 45 minutes per shoe it would take about 3 hours to play 4 shoes.

Around 12 hours to play 16 shoes.
Around 60 hours to play 80 shoes! (you guys can do the math for 100 shoes)

That seems like a very difficult work week to play like that. 160 shoes would be around 120 hours a week at the table and that's without taking a leak, a meal, or a cigarette break!

So, perhaps our master of ceremonies would like to chime in here and give us his expert comment on this.

Hey, Garn! Whatcha think of Neverdie's stamina at the tables! Me? I'm pretty tired after about 4 or 5 shoes. Maybe it's easier where you play?

AD (chain jerking mode)

i noticed that too--pretty amazing(not possible) to play that many shoes--at least not for me. I generally played 3 shoes a day to keep from being burned out. Granted at times I was playing 25 days a month. At one time I played 6-7, but I found a morning, afternoon, evening schedule kept me more refreshed with a dip in the pool or a walk in between shoes.

I think I know Archer's position on this from previous conversations and I think our positions are compatible.

I also know that most player's will give up long before proving the question one way or the other. They will merely arrive at an answer that suits their own satisfaction.

There is also a popular math misconception that distorts the whole picture. This misconception is that ANYTHING can happen within the realm of infinite random occurrence. Armed with this misconception, protagonists, like Garnabby for instance, can claim that everything that happens in a shoe of cards is within the realm of random.

But this notion defies common sense when you view it from the perspective of frequency of occurrence. The frequency of occurrence side of random mathematics allows that the same thing cannot keep happening within the realm of random occurrence. When it does, the events are no longer random. They are structured.

Lets look at a simple example. Suppose you are in a coin toss and the quarter actually lands and stays on its edge on the table top. So you say wow, that's interesting - retoss it. Suppose it lands on edge again? You KNOW something sinister is up, don't you. Yet the random occurrence protagonist says "thats normal - its within the realm of random occurrence". And he's right, at least to a degree, isn't he. BUT, the transaction DEFIED the frequency of occurrence side of random activity law. And you know that intuitively W/O checking any math laws don't you.

Now, with that in mind, lets take a look at BJ, 8 deck BJ to remain compatible. Exactly the same hand shuffles and the same shuffle machines are used in the same way to prepare the cards in Baccarat.

Archer's question can be refined down to this: Does the shuffle procedure employed transform the cards into a random condition???

Scientists have demonstated that it takes 25 shuffles to transform a SINGLE deck of cards into a PURELY random condition. Therefore 8 decks requires 25 to the 8th power to shuffle to a random condition.

Computer scientists argue with that number saying that it only takes 7 shuffles to attain a reasonably random condition - whatever THAT means. OK fine, now we are down to 7 to the 8th power. BTW, 7 to the second power is 49. The 8th power won't fit on my calculator.

And how many times is each card ACTUALLY shuffled? Well the casino control boards, who are paid by the casinos incidentally, recently changed the rules from 3 shuffles to 2 shuffles.

So are the cards you play random? Hell no, not even close. If they were the casino would not be standing there. It would have gone broke a long time ago.

Look, there is ONE thing that ALL mathematicians and all gamblers in the know agree on. James O Thorp's Basic Strategy beats random cards hands down in BJ.

The casino will give you a basic strategy card if you ask for it. They sell Basic Strategy books in the casino gift shops. Why? Do casinos actually help players? Don't be naive. The casinos KNOW the cards aren't random becase they painstakingly made them non random. They aren't stupid. They aren't in the business to go broke. Basic Strategy cannot beat non random cards. And the more perfectly you play it the more perfectly you will lose. Watch any BJ game in any casino. You'll soon see exactly what I mean for yourself. And remember, your Baccarat cards were shuffled exactly the same way. Any questions?

So what do you do about it? Well, that's what I teach. And I'm the ONLY one.

E. Clifton Davis
beatthecasino.com

Hey AD, you can't prove anything to a guy who proves everything "conclusively" by quoting himself. The freaking blind leading the blind.

Sorry Archer. I tried but its impossible to carry on an intelligent friendly Baccarat conversation on this forum when you have a crazy loose canon lunatic on board shooting at everything that moves. There is no point in staying on any forum he is on. He drives people away in droves.

And your's too Georgia! Perhaps sometime we can meet under better circumstances. BTW, I'm not a system promoter. I teach Baccarat Strategy on another saner, friendlier, adult forum.

AD/sillE/whomever you are or aren't today,

No, of course not... but mostly the morons like yourself who prop up (obvious) lie after lie, and contribute nothing of fact. The car-pictures were a little bit silly, don't you think? And who anywhere really cares about your football-fund, war-stories, and the elaborately-disguised BTC-ads, etc? What has any of that to do with this site?

Youze just continue being money-hungry scammers, indifferent to the harm caused by it... avoiding all facts, and even a cursory interest in the game of baccarat. Ya, right, mindless systems like SKOR, which alternate between FTL (follow the last), and OTL (opposite the last), upon a win involves any sort of real consideration? Laughable, yet by your car-pictures, etc, it wins 88% of the time? Sorry, here youze can't just delete your "losses", and create new lies for the new morons.

Anyway, how many times has Ellis threatened to leave, left, and then returned (as predicted)? Now it looks as if even old "sillE on LS.D." is finally beginning to realize he's only finishing off himself by this. Because here he can no longer just delete his "losses", and create new lies for the new morons. Ultimately, it's only the sincere and competent persons who continue to have something worthwhile to contribute.

And how many vacuous threads can one or two idiots start under several different usernames, to post the same poor grammar/logic about the same junk before it becomes obvious to even the morons on whom they "depend" for their next losing ante at the casino? And i wonder have also the Archer's, and John's, worn themselves out with the picky stuff (particularly about myself)... compensating for their own also now-apparent lack of original and valid material? Is also that my fault? Poor johno from the GG really thought he had something... until i replied in the threads, Gambler's Glen Message Boards : Baccarat Message Board : Carlo down the johno... . , and http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/..._Message_Board . The nonsense just doesn't stand up in the real world. (BTW, what ever happened to johno/John here? Still looking for a "divorce", lol? Hey, i think i'll go over to the GG to ask that for my "fun" for the day, right AD?)

Same goes for all the other "versions" of Ellis, if you can't compete in the real world, then go to that "BTC in the sky" where everyone wins everything all the time, or becomes "famous" for getting "banned" by the sillE idiot, himself... just pay up first, and lose a lot more later. But remember where you read this warning when you finally "crash and burn" so bad that you just want to disappear (like old sillE)... because the rest of us still here will have finally found some real answers BEFORE losing everything to the casinos, still welcoming back anyone who wants to start over.

You're a nobody until you do something real.




To everyone else,

As funny as it is to watch the sillE's squirm for more money, realize that no scam is funny (, or even legal), esp'ly when it happens to you.

Looks to me like we're making good progress, regarding even the scammers. (Alas, it won't be so much "fun" when they are ultimately forced to give even that up... but we'll still be able to "catch the re-runs" at some of the other boards.)

Garn,

Buddy, you've outdone yourself with that last message.

What more can I possibly add?

I also believe that anyone reading it will step back and say "What the heck is he yakking on about?"

You know, I had a really long and detailed message here to post up and when I previewed it, I just said "It's pointless. He'll never understand" and then just deleted it.

Now, if you'll just tell me what you'd would like to see in order to keep you calmed down and stop you from jumping on every post, I'll be more than happy to comply. So, what is it? What do you want?

AD (and where is it that you're playing the game these days?)

Garn,

Care to expound on that little bit of pseudo-wisdom?

I play in a real casino.

Where do you play?

Would that be "real" enough for you?

AD (too much fun for a New Year's Eve for sure!)

Forget it AD. This guy lives in a fantasy wannabe world. The names he keeps calling everybody are a perfect depiction of himself. That's where he gets them from. He cheats on quotes, except when he quotes himself over and over again. He cheats on subscriptions. He hides behind aliases. He employs spies but is too stupid to employ literate ones. Then he quotes his own spy completely exposing him to all our members. His spy tries to lose by leaving out key rules but manages to win anyway. That was a little accident because he has no idea of how to compute commission. Look at Garnabee's description of SKOR. Is that any system you recognize?

Neither him nor his spy realize that it is not about systems, its about system selection and table selection. Well, I take that back. Garnabby probably does realize it but that would ruin his fun and fantasy. He prefers cheating the truth. A helpless chronic liar that can't stand being out of his perceived spotlight. He's in the spot light alright, just not the one he thinks he's in. He's what down here in Arkansas we call a complete low life. He doesn't even play. A pretender that knows nothing about the game. He's got that same reputation on every forum. Everybody sees right through him. He's not worth your time or effort.

Forget it and have a happy new year.