Thread: Ellis Theory

Hi all,

I thought it might be fun and informative if anyone wanted to try out Ellis' net bet theory. That is to net bet two progressions. One for streaky shoe and another for choppy shoe. Ellis, start us up here. Give us the basics. Then we can decide on how to determine which way to switch.

Is there a way to attach a file to these messages? I could send a shoe or two in xls. format and we could all reference it.

Any comments?

Archer

Originally Posted by Archer

Hi all,

I thought it might be fun and informative if anyone wanted to try out Ellis' net bet theory. That is to net bet two progressions. One for streaky shoe and another for choppy shoe. Ellis, start us up here. Give us the basics. Then we can decide on how to determine which way to switch.

Is there a way to attach a file to these messages? I could send a shoe or two in xls. format and we could all reference it.

Any comments?

Archer

might cost you 500 bux tho

Originally Posted by Archer

Hi all,

I thought it might be fun and informative if anyone wanted to try out Ellis' net bet theory. That is to net bet two progressions. One for streaky shoe and another for choppy shoe. Ellis, start us up here. Give us the basics. Then we can decide on how to determine which way to switch.

Is there a way to attach a file to these messages? I could send a shoe or two in xls. format and we could all reference it.

Any comments?

Archer

Man enough Ellis? Sh0w us what you are really made of.

That is a great idea archer.

Ellis you can make all the arguement to stop. This is where you can really teach us something.

Show us.

I actually had this all done yesterday in reply to Archer's post on the other thread but then had a power failure here before I could hit the send button. Maybe that was an omen. But I mentioned on this forum before that my free systems instruction needs to be revamped on my forum anyway because there is not a complete instruction in one place leaving a public member having to wade through several posts. Maybe I can kill two birds with one stone. No I don't mind showing you how to play this system since it is free on my forum. I'll start a new thread called Ellis' Free System. Maybe Mike would be good enough to make that a sticky once we get a sample game posted with it. We can then start an open non sticky thread called P/B2Hi Questions where you can post your questions and comments.

Also I need a volunteer that can post sample games. My computer has some sort of weird glitch that won't let me do that. But I can email a sample to one of you who can post it. Email me your email address. Mine is ellis_858@hotmail.com. Note the underscore after ellis.

This will take some time as my own forum must take priority. So bear with me.

This basic P/B2Hi, let's call it, although extremely simple and unsophisticated, is a pretty good system and many have won their lifetime membership with it, most in one outing. But, I warn you it is only as good as your table selection abilities in the casino. But I'll include instruction how you do that. It's really easy once you get the hang of it.

For the same reason you'll find that this system will merely break even if you test it with a pile of shoes out of context of the casino. It must be linked with good table selection like most systems. You can only beat a casino with table selection or system selection or preferably both. This is true of BOTH Bac and BJ.

The only exception to that rule I know of is SAP. But SAP sort of cheats. SAP changes right along with the nature of the shoe. But even SAP does best when you use good table selection judgement. It averages about 5 or 6 with no table selection but 10 or 11 with good table selection.

Even the OTB4L version that PitBoss has posted needs to be coupled with good table selection. I think he does that by trial and error but I'll show you a better way to do it with P/B2Hi.

Look, only 1 out of a 1000 players, whether Bac or BJ, beat casinos on a regular basis. So Garnabby is 99.9% right when he says it can't be done. But the 1 out of a 1000 who ARE doing it are coupling great discipline with great table selection with great systems. It ain't easy but those devoted enough CAN do it.

But right now I've got to go back to my own forum and answer at least a hundred posts, emails and phone calls. Catch ya later.

BTW, Ya'll can post shoes, right?

Good God this is totally hopeless.

OK, here is the sample shoe I played.

P43411133
P7131512
B3111111254
B22251

It has 13 more repeats than Opposites.
I played it P/B2Hi Streak version
High bet of 2, net bet
I scored 32 with a lowest position of 0 and a Hi of 34
My player advantage was 33.3%
Ya'll try it with your best systems and see what you come up with.

I see no way to teach on this forum since we can't post shoes.

The best I can do is post the instructions and samples on my public forum and you can learn it over there for free.

See the rules refer to the sample. They are pretty much useless W/O the samples.

God its no wonder you guys can't play.

Originally Posted by Ellis

I actually had this all done yesterday in reply to Archer's post on the other thread but then had a power failure here before I could hit the send button.

You are the master! Question is . . .at what? LOL I won't bother to wade through the rest of his post. But l will try to get back to the topic. This is not about Ellis posting all his free systems here which he has agreed don't work. What is the point of that? Well it does give him another avenue to solicit membership. I doubt if Mike will be wiling to turn this into Ellis' new public forum.

Ellis you made a statement that you had a 2hi method that bets one progression on streak and another on chop 1,2 and 1,2,3,4 respectively. You said that the trick is to play the right one at the right time. You intimated that one could win 10 units a shoe on average with a 2hi bet. No one expects you to tell us how to make the switch. That is our job. Your job was simply to start it up by showing us the basic net bet scheme, then we could try to figure out the rest. After all there is no mystery in devising methods that will beat streak and chop individually.

So here you go again back tracking to the same old same old - except what is new is you now state only 1 in 4000 can do it. So what's that? Your back door when players don't win? How does that jive with your unconditional money back guarantee. Don't bother answering that.

Let's cut to the chase, shall we? The implication you yourself make about Baccarat is that the only way you can win is through table selection and that 99.9% of players won't be able to do it.

So if someone wants to post your free systems go ahead. They are fun enough to fool around with and do give the impression that they "might" win. But they are not that much different than SAP. SKOR is a little more confusing to play but neither will win without "table selection."

In the meantime I ahve to go back and answer 100's of emails I am getting and phone calls and pay attention to urgent matters so . . .catch ya later (when all this blows over and I can get back to selling subscriptions, LMAO)

Maybe that was an omen. But I mentioned on this forum before that my free systems instruction needs to be revamped on my forum anyway because there is not a complete instruction in one place leaving a public member having to wade through several posts. Maybe I can kill two birds with one stone. No I don't mind showing you how to play this system since it is free on my forum. I'll start a new thread called Ellis' Free System. Maybe Mike would be good enough to make that a sticky once we get a sample game posted with it. We can then start an open non sticky thread called P/B2Hi Questions where you can post your questions and comments.

Also I need a volunteer that can post sample games. My computer has some sort of weird glitch that won't let me do that. But I can email a sample to one of you who can post it. Email me your email address. Mine is ellis_858@hotmail.com. Note the underscore after ellis.

This will take some time as my own forum must take priority. So bear with me.

This basic P/B2Hi, let's call it, although extremely simple and unsophisticated, is a pretty good system and many have won their lifetime membership with it, most in one outing. But, I warn you it is only as good as your table selection abilities in the casino. But I'll include instruction how you do that. It's really easy once you get the hang of it.

For the same reason you'll find that this system will merely break even if you test it with a pile of shoes out of context of the casino. It must be linked with good table selection like most systems. You can only beat a casino with table selection or system selection or preferably both. This is true of BOTH Bac and BJ.

The only exception to that rule I know of is SAP. But SAP sort of cheats. SAP changes right along with the nature of the shoe. But even SAP does best when you use good table selection judgement. It averages about 5 or 6 with no table selection but 10 or 11 with good table selection.

Even the OTB4L version that PitBoss has posted needs to be coupled with good table selection. I think he does that by trial and error but I'll show you a better way to do it with P/B2Hi.

Look, only 1 out of a 1000 players, whether Bac or BJ, beat casinos on a regular basis. So Garnabby is 99.9% right when he says it can't be done. But the 1 out of a 1000 who ARE doing it are coupling great discipline with great table selection with great systems. It ain't easy but those devoted enough CAN do it.

But right now I've got to go back to my own forum and answer at least a hundred posts, emails and phone calls. Catch ya later.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Good God this is totally hopeless.

OK, here is the sample shoe I played.

P43411133
P7131512
B3111111254
B22251

It has 13 more repeats than Opposites.
I played it P/B2Hi Streak version
High bet of 2, net bet
I scored 32 with a lowest position of 0 and a Hi of 34
My player advantage was 33.3%
Ya'll try it with your best systems and see what you come up with.

I see no way to teach on this forum since we can't post shoes.

The best I can do is post the instructions and samples on my public forum and you can learn it over there for free.

See the rules refer to the sample. They are pretty much useless W/O the samples.

God its no wonder you guys can't play.

That is a pretty insulting comment, Ellis. Particularly after stating that 99.9% of players can't win on a regular basis.

But what is the point? You have just about admitted that none of your methods work without table selection. So let's just talk about table selection.

This isn't a competition to see who can beat this shoe. There is no meaning in that. Lots of ways to beat this shoe. I get 14 units with my standard play w/o any stops or MM. Flat bet.

Simple: Play TBL until you lose to a 2 in a row. Then switch to OTBL until you lose to a TBL. Then continue with TBL. Continue on in the same manner. LOL So what, big deal! That little method I just stated will stand up to any one of your methods. A few stops in the right places, some MM. Now, LOL, add the right table selection. . . . . .Just as good as SAP or SKOR or Twister or Anti-Twister.

You basically said it yourself. Without table selection you got nothing worth even 50 bucks.

Archer-----------------> OUCH!

Originally Posted by Ellis

For the same reason you'll find that this system will merely break even if you test it with a pile of shoes out of context of the casino. It must be linked with good table selection like most systems. You can only beat a casino with table selection or system selection or preferably both. This is true of BOTH Bac and BJ.

Well Ellis, you have finally admit it. Without luck and good table judgment, this game is unbeatable (at most break even, probably lose because of commission). I think everybody know that, but thanks for telling us anyway.

So now the focus is table selection? Why do I need your system Ellis? I mean any system can beat the casino as long as I choose my table right, isn't it? I could always choose any system(always bet banker for example) and by choosing the right table, I could win all day. That is easy, know that since the beginning I learn Baccarat.

By saying that you know which table to choose from in a casino is as good as saying you know what hand is going to come out in a particular shoes (Since you claim to have 83% win rate must mean you must know 83% of what hand is going to come next). In other words, if you know that it is a "bad" table. You could always change your strategy to fit that particular table to change it to a "good" table (Since you know 83% of the content from the "good" table must also mean you know the 83% the content of the "bad" table). If you can do that means you can beat all the table without even needing a table selection. So now what Ellis? Is it your strategy or your table selection that is important cos I see a big contradiction here.

Please enlighten me.

Originally Posted by ahario

Well Ellis, you have finally admit it. Without luck and good table judgment, this game is unbeatable (at most break even, probably lose because of commission). I think everybody know that, but thanks for telling us anyway.

Hi ahario. Look, Elvis is dead! There are no leprechuns! There is no such thing as luck! You've always needed good judgement and discipline. Comission is negligible. You're playing for far more than that.

Originally Posted by ahario

So now the focus is table selection? Why do I need your system Ellis? I mean any system can beat the casino as long as I choose my table right, isn't it? I could always choose any system(always bet banker for example) and by choosing the right table, I could win all day. That is easy, know that since the beginning I learn Baccarat.

It has ALWAYS been about matching the right system to the right table. That is the ONLY way to win and always has been. That is why you need to know multiple systems cold. And not just any systems. You need to know the right systems. If you are smart enough you don't need my systems. You can figure it out for yourself. It will only take you about 25 years. But you also need a winning attitude. You have to KNOW you can beat them. Judging from the last part of your para. that leaves you out completely. Only 1 out of 1000 can do it. The other 99.9% think just like you do.

Originally Posted by ahario

By saying that you know which table to choose from in a casino is as good as saying you know what hand is going to come out in a particular shoes (Since you claim to have 83% win rate must mean you must know 83% of what hand is going to come next). In other words, if you know that it is a "bad" table. You could always change your strategy to fit that particular table to change it to a "good" table (Since you know 83% of the content from the "good" table must also mean you know the 83% the content of the "bad" table). If you can do that means you can beat all the table without even needing a table selection. So now what Ellis? Is it your strategy or your table selection that is important cos I see a big contradiction here.

Originally Posted by ahario

Please enlighten me.

ahario, your basic 4th grade arithmetic really sucks. You don't need an 83% hands won rate to win 83% of the shoes. 51% will do very nicely and everyone starts out at 50% automatically. Its a 50/50 game less commission for crying out loud.

Right, you aren't always right in your table selection and tables DO change and yes, you often need to change strategies with the table. But you only need a slight edge. Watch this: You lose your 1 bet and win your 2 bet. You just averaged winning a half a unit per hand with a 50% hands won rate. The rest of your para is somewhat delerious.

Look, I'll have the P/B2Hi both streak and chop versions reposted complete with sample games on my free forum in about a week or so. You are free to study it for free or not as you choose. Meanwhile I see no point in hanging around a Baccarat Forum that can't post Baccarat. It's a complete waste of time.

Be nice Ellis. Stop the attack mode which you often decry as being counter productive. Ahario has a point. But let me remind you that you recently said only 1 out of 4000 can do it - now it's 1 out of 1000? OK, so you are speaking figuratively but you should be more careful when it comes to statistics.

Second, Ahario has a point about the 83% thing though it doesn't quite equate to 83% hands won ratio. More like 60% to achieve the 10 unit in you boast. And that is average so I would assume that many shoes would have to achieve 80% hand win rate or more to make up for the occasional loss and lower wins. So don't be so snide with the 4th grade math stuff ok?

But this does bring us back to the 50-50 question. You don't flat bet. You rely on a 2 hi progression and net betting. This means you must basically win more 2 unit bets than 1 unit bets IF you are net betting which you espouse. By definition net betting must lose the side with no decision. Therefore you must win more 2 unit bets than 1 unit bets whilst using net betting. It stands to reason then that your 2 unit bet is the advantage bet doesn't it. Why bother net betting? Just "paper" bet (pretend bet) all entries except the 2 unit spot. That's why net betting is a redundant form of betting. Without the winning 2 unit bet you lose.

I agree that we should be able to post a shoe here. Maybe we can using .bmp, I don't know if it will allow enough kb's. But what is more of a waste of time is your free systems that you have agreed do not work. BUT THEY DO WORK IF YOU UTILIZE PROPER TABLE SELECTION! But you agreed they dont work and advised caution about playing them.

So once again I simply ask why not post one of your regular, shall we say, more efficient methods. We know it won't work without table selection and it will take us 25 years to figure that out so what's the big deal.

Heads you win, tails we lose, right?

Originally Posted by Ellis

[/FONT][/COLOR]

Hi ahario. Look, Elvis is dead! There are no leprechuns! There is no such thing as luck! You've always needed good judgement and discipline. Comission is negligible. You're playing for far more than that.



It has ALWAYS been about matching the right system to the right table. That is the ONLY way to win and always has been. That is why you need to know multiple systems cold. And not just any systems. You need to know the right systems. If you are smart enough you don't need my systems. You can figure it out for yourself. It will only take you about 25 years. But you also need a winning attitude. You have to KNOW you can beat them. Judging from the last part of your para. that leaves you out completely. Only 1 out of 1000 can do it. The other 99.9% think just like you do.

[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]

ahario, your basic 4th grade arithmetic really sucks. You don't need an 83% hands won rate to win 83% of the shoes. 51% will do very nicely and everyone starts out at 50% automatically. Its a 50/50 game less commission for crying out loud.

Right, you aren't always right in your table selection and tables DO change and yes, you often need to change strategies with the table. But you only need a slight edge. Watch this: You lose your 1 bet and win your 2 bet. You just averaged winning a half a unit per hand with a 50% hands won rate. The rest of your para is somewhat delerious.

Look, I'll have the P/B2Hi both streak and chop versions reposted complete with sample games on my free forum in about a week or so. You are free to study it for free or not as you choose. Meanwhile I see no point in hanging around a Baccarat Forum that can't post Baccarat. It's a complete waste of time.

Wow wow Ellis. Chill out man. Never see this side of you coming. Do you want to discuss Baccarat or you want to degenerate people? Don't eat your own words ok. Be cool. Now I know at the first sight of chance, you actually also do insult people (Oh how Ellis long to insult people stupidity, you just don't have the chance do you). I guess now you know why Garnabby and the gang did that to you huh?

By the way Ellis, it is not hard to figure out that it is a 50-50 game and it takes just 51% to win the shoes. But thanks for "teaching" me again however what I want to know is how you beat the game, so don't waste time by lecturing me on the "51%" thing ok.

Archer, thanks for clarifying with him, he just don't get it. Well look Ellis, there is no such things as winning 83% of the shoes without having to pay anything. True it just take 51% hand win rate to win your 83% of the shoes, but what happened to the 17% losing shoes that you have to incur? Just as you have guessed, the other 17% have very high loss . Remember this is a 50-50 game. The burden has to shift somewhere. Take a look at the martingale system. It may offer you a very high win rate at the cost of very heavy losses, in the end the loss would be equal to the number of small win that you have made . So with 51% win rate (that is a small win by the way), I still don't think you can win even though 83% of the shoes is winning because the 17% of the losing shoes will crush you with a very heavy loss (which brings you down to 50-50). So the only possible thing you can do to win 83% shoes is either you must have a high bet progression(like the martingale) or you must have high hand win rate (rough guess of 83%). Since your 2 hi method don't cut it (it is too small in stake), therefore you need to have a high win rate to counter the heavy losses of the 17% (that is If you can have the 80% hand win rate which seems impossible to me, the most logical hand win rate should be around 60% as what archer describe)

I am quite disappointed with your cockiness that you did not say that you can manipulate your luck too. Because as far as I can see, the whole theory that you describe all along does not make any sense and the thing that can only make sense to me is if you know how to manage your luck. Look, only 1 out of 4000 people can do it, look if it isn't luck what is it? Skill, good judgment and discipline? I don't think so. Garnabby and archer and the rest can match you in every way but they never claim to have an exaggerated win as you do so I guess that leaves you having an extraordinary luck. Why don't we call your fuzzy skill as Luck Management (LM).

Now if I got LM. That is easy to win, all problem solved. I can easily manage which table to bet, choose any method that I want. Heck, In fact I can even choose any table for that matter because I know if it isn't the hand that I want, I can always paper bet it and bet only on the winning spot. See I can win all the time, when all 3999 out of 4000 people is losing all the time. But there is a twist in it. Not everyone is compatible using LM. So even if you know it, it may not win on your side so use it at your own risk and by the way, it is kind of hard to describe which is why it will take time to describe.

Please use paragraphs ahario, it makes what you say much easier to read. <-- ahario edited his post to put in paragraphs, thanks!

You speak of 17% of shoes being heavy loss, however this depends on your definition of heavy. The BTC systems mostly advise leaving a table at around -6, this doesn't seem that heavy for me, especially if it's only 17% of the shoes I play and the rest that I win are often more than +6.

ahario, please take no offense, I didn't mean any. Its just Baccarat. Don't take it personal. It's 1 out of 1000 BTW.

Originally Posted by Archer

That is a pretty insulting comment, Ellis. Particularly after stating that 99.9% of players can't win on a regular basis.

But what is the point? You have just about admitted that none of your methods work without table selection. So let's just talk about table selection.

This isn't a competition to see who can beat this shoe. There is no meaning in that. Lots of ways to beat this shoe. I get 14 units with my standard play w/o any stops or MM. Flat bet.

Simple: Play TBL until you lose to a 2 in a row. Then switch to OTBL until you lose to a TBL. Then continue with TBL. Continue on in the same manner. LOL So what, big deal! That little method I just stated will stand up to any one of your methods. A few stops in the right places, some MM. Now, LOL, add the right table selection. . . . . .Just as good as SAP or SKOR or Twister or Anti-Twister.

You basically said it yourself. Without table selection you got nothing worth even 50 bucks.

Archer-----------------> OUCH!

Fine Archer. Don't join!

Originally Posted by Ellis

Fine Archer. Don't join!

Fine, Ellis, don't respond to my post. This is Baccarat Forum, not BTC. You post a shoe and say nobody can beat it but it is easy to beat even flat betting a simple TBL with no stops, switches or MM. And your upset now?

A

Originally Posted by Plasia

Please use paragraphs ahario, it makes what you say much easier to read.

You speak of 17% of shoes being heavy loss, however this depends on your definition of heavy. The BTC systems mostly advise leaving a table at around -6, this doesn't seem that heavy for me, especially if it's only 17% of the shoes I play and the rest that I win are often more than +6.

I agree that -6 may not be a heavy loss. Betting 2 unit high one could easily hit -6. Is that what Ellis recommends? Leaving the table and looking for another at -6?

A

Test

Well that was easy once you know how. I'd like to make it a little bigger and get rid of the white part of the page. I couldn't figure how to crop it better yet.

Anyway, an interesting shoe. I picked it because it was unusually choppy and had a few interesting chop patterns.

Crop it for you archer so that it is easier to see.

Originally Posted by Plasia

Please use paragraphs ahario, it makes what you say much easier to read.

Plasia, I have already edited my post to use paragraph. Thanks for reminding me. Kind of hard to read I know.

Originally Posted by Plasia

You speak of 17% of shoes being heavy loss, however this depends on your definition of heavy. The BTC systems mostly advise leaving a table at around -6, this doesn't seem that heavy for me, especially if it's only 17% of the shoes I play and the rest that I win are often more than +6.

Ok back to business. Ok so you have implemented a stop loss of -6. Plasia, first of all let me ask you. How do you know that by stopping at -6, your luck won't change for the better? Unless BTC teaches you how to know that, you don't know. So by stopping at -6 you are calling it quit for the worse to come but also for the chance that you may actually be able to recoup your losses and win. What this does is it bring your shoes win percentage down. In other words, your 83% win of the shoes is going to drop. Drop by how much I don't know.

One thing for certain that I know. The more you adjust the percentage of winning, the more you are adjusting your big loss(even though they may not occur often). They are proportional and vice versa. That is how baccarat works, no matter where you adjust there is always something being adjusted at the same time to counter it.

Originally Posted by Archer

Fine, Ellis, don't respond to my post. This is Baccarat Forum, not BTC. You post a shoe and say nobody can beat it but it is easy to beat even flat betting a simple TBL with no stops, switches or MM. And your upset now?

A

No Archer, that isn't what I said at all. That doesen't give you +32 with a 33.3% PA as you know perfectly well. I said "match this with a system". I didn't say nobody could beat it.

Your posts are non constructive, argumentative, immature and not worth my time. Try Garnabee's debating class.

Originally Posted by ahario

Crop it for you archer so that it is easier to see.

We're getting there. Maybe somebody could ask Mike to supply a shoe posting program. They aren't that difficult.

Originally Posted by Archer

I agree that -6 may not be a heavy loss. Betting 2 unit high one could easily hit -6. Is that what Ellis recommends? Leaving the table and looking for another at -6?

A

Grow up Archer!

Originally Posted by ahario

Ok back to business. Ok so you have implemented a stop loss of -6. Plasia, first of all let me ask you. How do you know that by stopping at -6, your luck won't change for the better? Unless BTC teaches you how to know that, you don't know. So by stopping at -6 you are calling it quit for the worse to come but also for the chance that you may actually be able to recoup your losses and win. What this does is it bring your shoes win percentage down. In other words, your 83% win of the shoes is going to drop. Drop by how much I don't know.

I don't know that my luck wont change for the better, however I do know that I approached that shoe wrong and if I continued on it I would probably make a heavy loss.

By making my stop loss -6 I avoid massive losses. The idea (as far as I can tell, Ellis will correct me if I'm wrong) however is that I will often win more than +6 on my winning shoes, and that by matching the appropriate system to the shoe (use the tote board) I will win significantly more shoes than I lose (perhaps even 83%).

Originally Posted by ahario

Crop it for you archer so that it is easier to see.

Nice, I tried to crop it in Paint shop but didn't do it right for some reason. thanks, much better cropped.

A

Originally Posted by Ellis

No Archer, that isn't what I said at all. That doesen't give you +32 with a 33.3% PA as you know perfectly well. I said "match this with a system". I didn't say nobody could beat it.

Your posts are non constructive, argumentative, immature and not worth my time. Try Garnabee's debating class.

Oh, so because I didn't get 32 units betting 2 hi that invalidates the method I used? That's your new criteria? It is not good enough to make 14 units flat bet? So that then is argumentative? Constructive?

You think that your constant solicitation on this FREE SITE is constructive somehow?

Immature? My wife was reading some of your posts. She said she thinks that YOU are immature.

But don't let that bother you Ellis. She thinks that she is VICTOR MATURE!!! hahahahahahahahahhh!

A

Archer, again and for the last time: I said "match that". That's nine letters total. I suspect you know damn well what "match that" means. You don't have to go out of your way to be a complete jerk. Just act normal.

Guys, try my forum. Very refreshing after this place.

beatthecasino.com

Originally Posted by Plasia

I don't know that my luck wont change for the better, however I do know that I approached that shoe wrong and if I continued on it I would probably make a heavy loss.

By making my stop loss -6 I avoid massive losses. The idea (as far as I can tell, Ellis will correct me if I'm wrong) however is that I will often win more than +6 on my winning shoes, and that by matching the appropriate system to the shoe (use the tote board) I will win significantly more shoes than I lose (perhaps even 83%).

Hi Plasia,

I have done a lot of simulation even on those sytem that I thought was really the "real thing". These authors sounded like Ellis, but even more convincing and logical. They start good and I have positve hope when I tested slowly hand by hand on my baccarat game and shows a winning pattern (but that was only the beginning). however when i run them through thousands of test, they all fail me at the end. The conclusion. It is 50-50 game, one way or another any method tat you choose will eventually have a weak spot. You don't know when that weak spot is going to be attacked. But when that happened, it will hit you hard (so much so you will believe that the casino or the game is cheating).

I think each one of us have our own belief system. You have your own belief and I respect that. So just keep believing in your beliefs. This is the believe that I acquire after looking and doing statistic on those shoes. They shows no corellation to one another. I mean we don't even know whether a banker or a player is going to come out next, what makes us think that we can predict the bunch of it (a trend)?