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[Ellis]

Originally Posted by Archer

I am not calling you a liar and I am not making fun of you. Just asking reasonable questions about your business. Not getting a lot of answers. Just the occasional name calling and changing the subject.

You are not going anywhere. You will be right here selling your wares because that is what you do. People are free to go to your site and learn how to select tables. That is essentially what you are offering. You say that, not me. Let me re-post the original advertisement which you have accepted as true.

Well its already 6AM here and I've already got 3 hours in. This is probably a complete waste of my valuable time particularly given your motivation and I doubt if anyone is the least bit interested. I'd much rather be teaching but here goes anyway:

I've already got everyone from this site I'm going to get. The rest are hard core. I did not come here for that purpose. I came here because Garnabby called me a scammer and then invited me. I came here to set him straight but then found that an impossible objective. He's a moving target.

Originally Posted by Archer

"Ellis Davis has a site whereby he teaches people how to play BJ, and Baccarat. He charges $500.00 to join. Ellis now states he has a money back guarantee but does not stipulate the terms.

I've charged various amounts through the years from $3000 per manual down to $500 lifetime. I've always had an unconditional money back guarantee but my returns were almost nill. The industry avg. is 20% returns and most accountants in this industry escrow 25% to 40% for returns. Mine did too until he found it completely unnecessary and therefore actually illegal. This industry is a LOT bigger than most suspect. Or more accurately - used to be. Internet scammers completely ruined it.

Today the decision of my moderator was to go to subscriptions mainly because nobody has any money these days. Also, its far easier to automate. So far, at least, he was right and our business improved. You don't guarantee subscriptions since monthly members are free to quit anytime they please. ALL subscriptions everywhere are like that. That's what the word means. For instance, when I had my Newsletter with 500 subscribers I charged the same just for the Newsletter, $50 a month. Had it for years and nobody ever stopped their subscription. But I had to stop writing it when I had a stroke. But people had money in those days.

Originally Posted by Archer

Baccarat: Ellis will teach you how to play existing trends in the shoe. Ellis makes it clear that there is no mechanical method so you will have to learn how to make; well shall we say an "intelligent guess" as to how to play. Ellis has made it clear that Baccarat is a 50-50 game so that the likelihood of one decision occurring over the other is 50-50. Even though this may sound like a contradiction in terms it is not.(?!&%!!?) Because each game has a trend and he will teach you how to change your bet placements to win 83% of shoes and gain a double digit advantage over the house by betting no more than 2 units at any time. (If my math is correct this means that out of 100 hands bet you will at the very least win approx. 15 units or 9-10 units per 8 deck shoe).

All of your assumptions above are inaccurate or incomplete: First we are looking for casino trends, then table trends. Finally we are watching for trend changes. We play purely mechanical systems but we match the system with the trend at hand. If we made a mistake or the table trend finally changes, we change right with it to the appropriate purely mechanical system.

I'm not here to argue semantics. Every play in a Baccarat game is purely 50/50 except for the influence of trends" Is that wording more acceptable? My POINT was that purely mechanical systems that don't follow trends, regardless of the progression used, CANNOT win in the long run BECAUSE the game is 50/50. The only purely mechanical system I know of, or ever heard of that actually wins in the long run is SAP but that is BECAUSE it follows table trends. Progressions cannot beat purely random numbers. A simple and well known fact of math. BUT give otherwise random numbers just the slightest trend and they CAN be beat rather easily. Casinos do not shuffle cards to a purely random condition whether by hand or by machine. If they did ALL simple basic strategy players would win. DO they? Of course not. If the cards were random the U.S. casinos would have gone broke a long time ago. They use the same machines and the same hand shuffles for Baccarat. As an X BJ player, you should know all that stuff cold. But most players aren't the least bit interested in the mechanics of math - they just want a way to win. That is what I provide.

How much you win and how often you win depends on how much you bet and how well you matched your system to your table. I teach players to match their betting aggression to the strength of the trend at hand. But most prefer 2 Hi betting regardless. Fine by me.

Look, for instance, a shoe is either high in opposites - that's a trend or high in repeats - thats a different trend or mostly equal and thats yet a different trend. BUT there is ALWAYS a trend. ALL trends are playable with the right system. Get it?

Originally Posted by Archer

He also has free systems in the public forum of his site. But he has warned people not to play them because they don't work.

As I completely covered before, the free systems are fine but the forum needs to be revamped because players don't find the streak version because I stupidly put it in a different thread. I'd rather players not play it until I get it revamped which is exactly what I should be doing right now rather than wasting my time.

Originally Posted by Archer

If you join the private forum for $500.00 he will show you how to play many different mechanical systems. Even though he warns that these mechanical systems don't work by themselves he will teach you when to switch to the correct ones for the shoe you are playing.

I guess that about sums it up."

Well, now it is 50 bucks for a month. Which is weird, isn't it? The only conclusion I can come to is that it is not possible to learn how to play RD1 and select tables in a month - or two - or three.

You never respond - how come?

Archer

I think I already corrected everything here except it will never be "summed up". Why in the world would anyone want to quit at RD1. Its a great system but its only one system.

Archer, you studied and played BJ for many years. Do you think you learned EVERYTHING there was to learn about that game? If so, that's probably exactly why it didn't work out.

Me, I'm still learning, always will be.

[Archer]

I've already got everyone from this site I'm going to get.

I guess that statement really just sums it up for sure, Ellis. Not that THAT was what you were here for, NOoooooooo! LOL.

This post seems like your last sales pitch- but it is NOT. you'll be here again and again plying your trade. For 50 bucks I bet you got a few takers anyway. Maybe they will come back and teach everybody here how to pick a table.

Ellis, did you not stop beating your girlfriend? Is that why things "didn't work out?" Don't pretend you know who I am. Or next time I see you I will slap that skinny ass of yours on the head down at Gold Strike - then you will know who I am!

Archer

[Ellis]

Just your speed Archer. Impressive! You're certainly welcome to try!

[Archer]

Originally Posted by Ellis

Just your speed Archer. Impressive! You're certainly welcome to try!

Try what, slapping you upside the balding head? Are you daring me? You better not double dare me! LOL I guess you missed the innuendo.

[ayuinca]

I agree with Archer that all those systems invented by Ellis are only mastered by Ellis himself. I was one of those who were trying to win the entrance fee from those free systems, unluckily I was one of those 50-50 loser. And I guess those 50-50 winner made it, for the $500.

You can learn his systems the mechanical part but you will have hard time to get his so subjective part until you have played as many shoes as Ellis have done. Predicting the shoe by the history is the soul of his systems because he believe shoes can keep the trend of dealt pattern. That's why he advise people find the shoe its records on the board fits the system. I hope this kind of trend is correct but without any statistics proof I can only take it as 50-50 chance. So only Ellis himself can win with his irreplacaeble experiences.

I always wish Ellis could answer this: if a system works why you have so many? I know you said that different gun for diferent beast. But with so many systems, to me it's equivalent to have no system.

So far I think that the essence of Ellis's stuff is that everyone can have or develop his own system, a mechanical part and plug in his own subjective factor. Maybe, just maybe, it could be better than a guess, isn't it?

[ayuinca]

Still some of your unproved ideas, Ellis. Your statement that the cards are not random in the casino is not valid to me. I believe only with your so many years of playing experience could explain that but it's hard to convince people. Do you know the combinations of 416 cards disregard suits? It's 1.649E+376,yet the result combinations are only 2^72=4.722E+21 not counting the tie. So still there are innumerous card order shoes, 3.492E+354 can produce one result shoe. In what term do you believe the cards are not random? Even if not random, you have 1 out of 4.722E+21 chance to hit an identical result shoe. So who care of the cards are random or not?

[garnabby]

Originally Posted by ayuinca

I agree with Archer that all those systems invented by Ellis are only mastered by Ellis himself. I was one of those who were trying to win the entrance fee from those free systems, unluckily I was one of those 50-50 loser. And I guess those 50-50 winner made it, for the $500.

Wallygator, for another from many threads i copied & pasted over at BTC, posted "miserable" results. And the bacdoctor too, eventually dropped out of that group, after conceding losses. (The list goes on and on, now that there's an other forum here where the truly-enlightened can tell the truth.)

Ellis, who claims to "do as he wants over there because it's his board" deletes ALL THE NEGATIVE POSTS, while exaggerating the positive ones.

Let's face it, we should be attending any baccarat-board for one purpose: To figure out a way to make that million dollars starting at the $25 baccarat-tables... or to not begin to play for "serious money" at all. Anything in between could only be another Ellis-type disaster. And NO ONE, including Ellis, has achieved that goal... not even by luck alone.

If you don't believe this, add your own (true, and universally-verifiable,) story to the thread, Baccarat Stories .