All,

Once again, I find myself really trying not to get involved in the ongoing argument over how to play the game but it's time.

I've read through all of the message traffic basically between Garnabby and Ellis and I'm thinking that Ellis is winning this one.

Talk is cheap but action and proof speak volumes.

On one side we have a person who says he has played and instructed for 25 years or so. Says he's won and has taught many winners. Has proof of these winning ways and has people who will confirm these wins over the years. Seems pretty bulletproof.

On the other hand we have a person who simply argues any statement that is presented, shows little or no proof of any relevant statements and who's only response to a factual statement is to start name calling, head off on a tangent train of thought and start posting full threads from a variety of other gambling sites, some of which may occasionally actually have something to do with baccarat!

I personally have no animosity towards either person. Reading the ongoing saga between the two is amusing at best but sad in a way. There is a wealth of information out there and one needs only to see through the chaff for the truth.

I've seen many very good people come and go here and I believe the reason may be because they just get fed up with the silly arguments when what they really came here for was information and perhaps an idea to get them headed in a new direction for the game. Garnabby tends to make a bold statement to anyone who even appears to come in here and attempt to actually DO something. I find that very strange.

With that said, I'll have to be blunt here and say that Ellis has offered up some good ideas, especially to the newer players who may show up. I was one of the guys who thought Ellis may have been a flake before I actually went to his site and did my homework.

The bottom line? After much discussion and soul searching, I decided it was time to get going with my baccarat game and start winning A LOT and with a purpose rather than just slog along at the table wishing and hoping the cards would fall my way.

Yes, I'm one of those people who paid the fee and joined up at Ellis' Beat The Casino Forum. I pulled the money from my football account and bought right in. I spent a lot of time reading, rereading and reading some more, just to get up to speed on what they were doing over there. It WAS different from my old style of play. It was a lot of work and a bunch of study and practice but it was also winning!

The other bottom line? Ellis knows of what he speaks. He is not spouting off ideas like a sermon from the mount, he's working with some excellent players and ALL of them are coming up with ideas, the synergy of which is larger than the collective group.

So, although I'll continue to stop in here on my daily run of gambling sites, and add whatever I can to the general message traffic and baccarat conversations, I'll stay out of these types of messages and spend most of my time at the site where the primary focus is on baccarat and winning with none of the silly arguments that go nowhere due to the one sided nature of the discussion.

Unlike many former members, I won't be leaving and canceling the account here as there are some good ideas coming up from time to time and some good people working on them. Baccarat is a full time learning experience and when you close your mind to all ideas, you've stopped learning.

Ellis wins the arguments here mainly because he's the only one in the conversation who can back up his statements. No bull, no lies, no deception or sleight of hand. Just solid baccarat ideas and methods that work and he has the numbers to back it up.

Oh yes, I won back my "Ellis buy-in" cost in the first 10 live shoes played using a method that fit my style of play right from the Ellis site. It was just like he described. Playing a "2Hi" system with no progressions or big bets. Winning in the casino is much better than losing anytime!

Let the flame throwers begin!!!!

AD

There's nothing I can add Ad. So lets get back to work and forget this nightmare.

I was wondering why the members at the Ellis forum are always tweaking and tinkering and changing things. If the system was winning 25 years ago and 15 years ago, why is it still a work in progress after so many years? Does it win simply because of the very dangerous progression? ie- up 1 unit after a loss and down 1 unit after a loss.We would all win all the time with this flawed progression?

Can't you understand usernametaken. In modern times, you get newer trend of shoes than as of that 25 or 15 years ago.

I wonder what's gonna come after SKOR?

When AD said 2Hi, that means your highest bet is 2. And that means your bet size is either 0 or 1 unit or 2 units. Most of our members prefer 2 Hi systems so thats what I concentrate on. 2Hi's require a different approach. Also most of our members prefer the simplest version of SKOR which we call SKOR Z as their base casino system because this version has attained the highest win rate in actual casino play and it affords the fewest mistakes. Actually I have been teaching this exact version for 20 years. Some of the guys even flat bet it. But we've had several instances already where members have won every shoe on a trip basing with SKORZ. One experienced member won 100% of 18 shoes in casino but our overall is about 83% win rate. Our cash mgt is designed so that our highest losing shoe is always less than our avg. winning shoe. We are almost always the lowest bettors unitwise at the table but we are also the most consistent winners. If you know what you are doing high bets just aren't necessary. We tinker because we are always trying to get that 83% number higher still. Maybe you'd like to try and help us do that. We all work together and play together here and you'll never hear a negative word spoken. And oh yeah, our groups always get unbelievable comps!
Ellis
beatthecasino.com

I always thought a shoe is a shoe is a shoe bit like Forest Gump saying life is like a box of chocalates you never know what you gonna get as with bac shoes the same applies on Db for instance they wash and shuffles and cut and burn the cards how can so called orchestration happen there somwetimes I see very streaky shoes and choppy sometimes both in the same shoe

I go back to the old twister days long gone now we up to the x tweaked version but hey Ellis say he been using it 25 years ago and still wins I go back to twister i test it it fail straight away and this is after people (shills) saying they won with it

Ellis give us your working system we use it and give you a good cut of our winings you in a win win situation you may even make more cant see it happening tho

Neither can I.

I was fortunate enough to be given $60 by my friends who were pretty happy with their performance at casino wars and knew I was broke at the time and that I really wanted to play baccarat. I then used ellis's free system (U2Hi) to win enough to buy all three of us lunch and to pay for 1 month in approximately half a shoe, even though there were 4 ties in a row!

I've been reading like mad and there's some really interesting stuff. I will do a little report when I'm ready to hit the casino again armed with my new knowledge.

"Once again", no help from AD as to exactly which part of which debate he seems to think sillE has won. I know, just like plasia's first thread, you now don't know how you became a part of this thread... duh?

Doesn't bode well for one like Ellis (or his lastest "sidekide", AD,) who can't win the simplest of arguments, nay, can't even begin to argue effectively... let alone continue on with all the known lies from him left "to the wind" (Or fail to see what's already been repeadedly made crystal-clear throughout many of my own, and many others', posts on this board, and every other board where sillE has "popped up".)

To be expected in a truly-free board such as this one, i suppose... someone like Ellis & company trying to "take over" instead of making some reasonable point. (I have found the debates in which no one wins or loses to be the most-productive in the end. Better to focus on doing one's best, anyway, rather than always the winning/losing of something... not that that's even the best term for things like debates, the stock market, etc, as it implies a wimpy need for luck.)

And i'm in it for the long-run, egs, to be who i am, not to hem myself in later by trying to be someone "perfect", "politically-correct", etc, now; and to lay some pretty-good theoretical/emperical, and practical foundations allowing for true growth later... even for those who are not yet capable of their comprehension.

And long as it takes to "run down" all the other scammers as well.

BTW, AD, that's a pretty nice "sermon", and in the usual logically-distorted and factually-void style of Ellis. But i'm still waiting for a single poster from anyone on any board about having won anything over the past year by any of Ellis' systems. (And, by and large, the majority of persons are honest, right?) Second, i wonder if it's easier for a "sucker" to "develop" that route (with all the "homework/master" stuff) than finally admitting to it?

If sermons are to make everyone feel good, then yours was that... compared to Ellis, i feel great every time.

That's the odd thing about his "free stuff", by which the lucky winners are duped into paying their winnings to him... why put out the oldest ones which "used to work", when he could just put out the latest, better ones which ceased to work because of the ever-changing "casino-orchestration thing" (which was never really explained in the first place) for the others to better at least test their existing recently-available shoe-data against?

Then sillE Elli would have more persons making his "grade" for the $50 (and going down, or already nothing by just getting his "junk" from the members here already with those via the many disgruntled BTC members)?

Maybe AD should have held onto his "football tickets"? (Sorry for some more actual logic, AD. Hope i don't have to come back here to explain also that plain english to you.)

Typical of a scammer

OK, I'm going to state this as plainly as I possibly can.

I am using a plan from the Ellis site and I am winning with it.

I am currently on a 13 shoe winning streak with real money in a real casino using a method of play from the Ellis site.

I also practice at least two shoes a night at DublinBet with live dealers and tonight I won all seven shoes.

If you're going to speak ill of someone, at least get your facts correct! I've posted several times here that I am currently on a nice streak of wins. What else would you like me to say?

I would really like to stop posting on this board but you have now made a statement about me that is false and I had to correct it, again.

Please, leave me out of any further conversation in this thread as my only contribution to it, other than making corrections to your oddly worded misstatements, is to explain how and why I paid the money to join the Ellis group.

It was not intended to be a sales pitch of any type. I personally don't care if anyone joins as I don't get a dime from it.

Is there anything else you would like me to say to calm your mind and keep you from making these things up??

AD

Garn,

Uh, I have no idea of what you just said or what you meant, but those "football tickets" are not tickets but money pulled from a football betting account.

What that has to do with anything is beyond me.

Here's a hint for you. It's called gambling for a reason. If it was automatic or easy, everybody would do it. You pay your money and you go for what you believe to be the best shot at winning.

Well, at least I do. I'm not quite sure what you do.

As long as we're on the subject, where do YOU play your baccarat at?

AD

Ha, "plain English" and Garnabby. I guess opposites attract. AD, He doesn't play, he's only here to argue. THAT is what he does. If he perceives he's losing he'll just make something up. Like he did with cars. It's a complete waste of time. Might just as well argue with a post. He's like those card counting gurus that never played BJ in a casino. Got all their "knowledge" from books. He knows nothing about how do win. He declares it impossible. And for him, it is.

As most here know, I play and teach following casino, table and shoe trends. A couple of posters here, one highly experienced and one completely lacking in experience, have posted that there is no such thing in Baccarat as trends, that all is random.

By shoe trends I'm referring to the following:
Is the casino, the pit, the table or the shoe favoring:

1.) Bank or Player or equal?
2.) Opposites or Repeats or equal?
3.) Runs - TB4L, lack of runs - OTB4L or equal?
4.) Is any event above or below its normal frequency of occurrence?

Events are 1 in a rows, 2 in a rows etc.

When viewed this way, every shoe ever dealt at its completion had a strongest trend. If you were playing that trend, You won. If not, you likely lost. Usually a trend continues for the duration of a shoe. But if not, no matter. Whenever a trend weakens, another takes its place as strongest.

While we have very accurate ways of determining trends, often they are strong enough to be completely obvious. For those of you who still believe there is no such thing as trends, let alone table trends, examine these shoes played last month in Perth, Western Australia. All shoes are from the same machine shuffled table the same day. If you don't see an obvious table trend, you need to stay away from casinos.

Burswood 27/11/09 Blue MD2 #1
b221121511112 (BBPPBPBBPBBBBBPBPBPP)
b1143121121111
b12221122241
p3411

Burswood 27/11/09 Red MD2 #2
b1211311223111
p11111211212111111
b22113233111
p342

Burswood 27/11/09 Red Hand #3
b1312321211111
p1(11)431
b21114221132
b21211122121

Burswood 28/11/09 Red MD2 #1
b112211214212
b311112111121112
p43314311
b126111

Burswood 28/11/09 Blue MD2 #2
b5422511
b122311111214
b131322111122
b121421111

BTW, take my word for it: The cards don't know or care what country they are in.

[QUOTE=garnabby;17357
Doesn't bode well for one like Ellis (or his lastest "sidekide", AD,) who can't win the simplest of arguments, nay, can't even begin to argue effectively... let alone continue on with all the known lies from him left "to the wind" (Or fail to see what's already been repeadedly made crystal-clear throughout many of my own, and many others', posts on this board, and every other board where sillE has "popped up".)

To be expected in a truly-free board such as this one, i suppose... someone like Ellis & company trying to "take over" instead of making some reasonable point. (I have found the debates in which no one wins or loses to be the most-productive in the end. Better to focus on doing one's best, anyway, rather than always the winning/losing of something... not that that's even the best term for things like debates, the stock market, etc, as it implies a wimpy need for luck.)


BTW, AD, that's a pretty nice "sermon", and in the usual logically-distorted and factually-void style of Ellis. But i'm still waiting for a single poster from anyone on any board about having won anything over the past year by any of Ellis' systems. [/QUOTE]


Ellis replies:

"Debates"? "Argue effectively"? Baccarat Forums is a cleverly misleading title for a Debating Forum. Everybody thinks its supposed to be about Baccarat

Plenty of our guys are ahead annually but why in Gods name would they post here - so they could be called liars? They owe you nothing.

This forum isn't about Baccarat. I posted a pure Baccarat post again just a couple of posts above. Didn't draw a single comment. No players left on this debating board. You can't comment because it went right over your head as usual.

"Crystal clear"? That'll be the day.

You couldn't debate your way out of a wet paper bag. The first rule of debating is you must be understandable to your audience. That leaves you out completely.

Well you win Garnabby. You'll be the last one standing - all by yourself. Dabate away. Geez, even John.

"Popped up on other boards"? I haven't posted on other boards in years. Just more of your made up crap. Do you ever tell the truth? About anything?

"Take over"? Nothing left to take over. You saw to that.

OK, for the beginners and inexperienced the above 5 shoes STRONGLY favor Opposites in spite of the 11 in a row. Ones and twos are both way above normal. Any trained player would clearly see this glancing at the toteboards W/O even breaking stride walking down the isle. We call this a jugular exploit opportunity.

This table remained this way all day. In fact, every table in the casino was like this and games played two weeks earlier at this casino looked very much like these 5.

This, in spite of the modern shuffle machines used. In my opinion BECAUSE of the settings on the shuffle machines used. We see trends this strong very frequently at many casinos. Gold Coast, Vegas, for instance. New cards at Gold Strike Tunica were this choppy for 3 years straight. I won nearly every shoe I played in the mornings at Gold Strike for 3 years. THey recently changed their morning card prep BECAUSE of that.

The tote board of the table that Garnabby watched us play at Gold Coast Vegas looked very much like the above games. We jumped on that night time jugular exploit opportunity and played simple TB4L because that is what the tote board was screaming. We won nearly every hand playing quarter units. Only to be severely criticized by Garnabby. I went on to win every shoe but one on that entire 4 day trip. All of my 15 players won that trip. Then we all get assulted with Garnabby's pure crap who knows nothing whatsoever about the game of Baccarat. Just makes stuff up as he goes and gets his brains from know nothing junk sites like gamblersglen.

So how would a professional play the above table? Well if you wanted to be extremely conservative, since every shoe is high in 1s and 2s you could simply bet opposites with an U1D2 M2 progression. Thats up 1 when you lose, down 2 when you win but don't go below 1. M2 means Mandatory 2 - you always bet 2 after one regardless if you won the 1 or not. You suspend betting after 2 losses in a row and resume where you left off after a paper win. Your goal with that prog is +20.

You'll make your +20 units in every shoe above - some so early that you might want to continue on to +25. Your highest bet would usually be 4 or 5. You'll make your +20 at that table all day long.

Or, since the table is so good, you might decide to move up to U1D1 m3 and base at 2. If you knew to do that you'd make 30 or 40 units every shoe with a highest bet of 6 or 7.

Now, does Garnabby or anyone else on this site teach you Baccarat basics like that? Hell no! They're too busy debating about everything but Baccarat. Who won the debate hasn't got a thing to do with who won the game. Hell, even when you win they debate it and call you names and tell you what you just did is impossible.

Look, I've only covered ONE basic here. Now you know A single way to beat ONE shoe type. There are many, many more. Will you learn them here? Hell no. There is no qualified instructor here. If there were he would, for sure, move on to a different site like the real players have because some complete idiot here would debate every single thing he tried to teach point by point. What is the point of that?

So why do I get bad mouthed on many other sites? Because they can't teach you how to win so they bad mouth sites that CAN teach you how to win. That leaves my site as the only target. We totally ignore them. They are a complete waste of time.

If you want to win at Baccarat you need to move up to a site that actually teaches you how to win at Baccarat. W/O debates! W/O arguments. My site, beatthecasino.com is the only site on the entire internet that does that. Try them all and you'll soon see for yourself. We have lots of qualified instructors. ALL the best players gravitate to us eventually once they've had their fill of junk sites like this one. This site totally forgot what its supposed to be about. My site is totally dedicated to winning at Baccarat and members quickly learn to do exactly that just like AD did right along with many others from this site and others. And its SOOO refreshing.

Re: Let's update our locations!

With so many new members here lets update our locations.
MVS
Right, good idea. I retired in N.E. ARkansas 12 years ago by way of upstate NY. I went from the Adirondacks to the Ozarks. I guess I'm a mountain man. The golfing season here is longer and the cost of living cheaper. I live alone in a resort community (Cherokee Village) full of lakes, rivers, and golf courses. Its a dry state (yep, they still exist) but somehow they have bars at the golf courses. Go figure. My girl friend and playing partner, Ann, used to live with me but prefers the flat country with her huge family an hour away. Ha, see, I'm not as dumb as I look. Whoops, she's coming here today or tomorrow so I have to hide this. Among other things!

I'll be 70 in June but I'm still at fighting weight. Have to fit in casino chairs! Tunica is less than 3 hours away.

Trivia - The Adirondack State Park in upstate NY is bigger than Yellow Stone and Grand Teton put together. Bet ya didn't know that! 6 million acres! Down here they think that NY is made of concrete or "concreek" as they say down here among many other strange things.

So the trooper says to the Arkansas speeder with no license. You got any I.D.? Bubba says: "Bout what?"

Main industry in Arkansas?
Tax rebates!

Hemmingway was born here.
John Grisham (the actual painted house is not far from here)
Robert Mitchum
Elvis P. lived here
Johnny Cash
Bill Clinton
many others
and now, me!
__________________
BeatTheCasino
Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 12-11-2009 at 09:09 AM.

The question came up here a little while back basically: Why do you tinker? Although the question came up vindictively as is wont to occur on this particular forum, it is, nevertheless, a very valid question.

It has to do with the way WE play vs. the way YOU play which is two completely different modes of operation.

You guys are looking for the Holy Grail, a single system that beats EVERYTHING. Well guys if you don't know it by now, you eventually will: the Holy Grail does not exist. Baccarat is simply not that easy.

We play entirely differently. We match the system we play to the shoe color we are playing. Our whole effort is to play the right system for the shoe type at hand.

You rely on clever progressions that, no matter how you design them, will work half the time. This requires high bets.

We rely on hands won rate. That way we enjoy excellent wins without the risk of high bets. Every bet in the final analysis is 50/50. Why make high bets? Esp when you note that the lower you make your highest bet, the larger you can make your unit.

YOU are looking for a fractional percent Player Advantage.
WE are looking for a double digit Player Advantage. And we get it!

YOU go to the casino hoping to win, hoping you don't lose a prog.
WE go to the casino already knowing we are going to win. Our only concern is how much.

Our tinkering has to do with matching the right system to the right shoe - not with redesigning systems.

Here's a case in point that was posted yesterday on my private forum:


QUOTE:
Played three shoes yesterday, actually 2 and a little, with SKORz and c/s. Got my first smack alongside the head.

Shoe 1
High +7
Low -1
End +6

Shoe 2
High +1
Low -10
End -4

Shoe 3
High -1
Low -8
End -8 at hand 17

I replayed them with straight RD1 (121212) this evening since that is the system the toteboard called for:

in order

High +20
Low +1
End +19

High +18
Low -1
End +17

High +7
Low +1
End +6

Bill
***************
END QUOTE

Now Bill here is a new member. He has learned SKOR and has won several trips in a row with it. That makes you lazy. You start thinking what do I need other systems for? Why match the system to the table when I'm winning every trip with SKOR alone? But then he loses a trip by a little. Now he knows the benefit of correct system selection. The hard way!

Sure, SKOR is a great system. BUT it is NOT the Holy Grail. You don't want to play SKOR at an RD1 table - as Bill found out when he got home.

Had he simply studied the toteboard he would have known to play RD1.

This should demonstrate two completely different lessons to you:

1.) Match the system to the table you are playing.

2.) You don't need high bets if you match correctly.

There is no system simpler than RD1. It will beat nearly every shoe you play. But it has shoe types that it particularly likes. This was an RD1 table. RD1 averaged 14 units a shoe without betting more than 2. Can you do that?

Now, perhaps you are beginning to see why I say NEVER EVER decide how you are going to play before you get to the casino. That is the dumbest thing you could do in Baccarat. ALWAYS wait to see what you are up against.

That is why we tinker. And it pays off.

Some Ellis quotes. One thing is for certain – this site isn’t much help for folks who want to learn about Baccarat. One reason is the arguments. Ellis (lol) is finally wearing down “the competition” as it were. Such a waste of time! Question: Ellis is your fee still down to $50.00 a month or did it go back up to $500.00? I know that recently you were advertising a $50.00 thing, right? Doesn’t matter to me whether people sign up or not. Since you are advertising your site I thought you might just make a plain statement as to how much and what the general terms and conditions are.

A little Ellis history:

I am glad that Ellis is finally seemingly to come clean after all these years. The above quotes are from Ellis. It’s good that you admit that you don’t have a mechanical method. For a long time you either said outright that you did and/or implied that you did. “Holy Grail” was the first. I don’t think that was 20 years ago Ellis – more like 10-12? No matter. That was a net bet side independent negative progression that bet 1,2,3,4 on a loss. When that didn’t work out you tried a few others. Then I guess you came up with “Twister” which was sold as a mechanical method with some MM. By the time “Anti-Twister” came out you were beginning to realize that the mechanical methods weren’t happening, huh?

Since then we have a dizzying number of methods: SAP, SKOR, CS, and their various iterations. More recently we hear accolades about the old standbys – TBL and OTBL. Seems like Ellis has come full circle to those Baccarat Basics! (after all, those two placements win all Bacc combos – just pick the right one!)

I was on your public forum but was ridiculed and eventually banned (though Keith re-instated me). Why banned? Because a) I stated that Ellis’ mechanical methods don’t work, b) that Bacc is a 50-50 game and that ultimately you have to win more hands then you lose OR win more of the larger bets than you lose in order to make up for losing too many smaller bets! Heresy!

Nice to hear (see above) that you have finally come around to my way of thinking, Ellis. Also, somewhere one of your posts mentioned that you had a player who was winning 57% of his flat bets! Nice! Thank you! Apology accepted!

So you teach people how to pick and choose. Fine. You look at a tote board (if there is a tote board) and watch a game for up to an hour, then wait another hour to come around to the same shoe again and play the way you would have won if you were playing that last shoe. That sounds easy enough – as long as the shoe is consistent. It “usually does” (see above). Does it? Hmmmmm! Well, let’s first hope that there is a seat after hanging around. Well, you could take a seat and flat bet – kind of wait a shoe out for an hour I suppose. Okay, so as long as the shoe comes back we are golden! So this is the first lesson of Baccarat that can be discussed and proven or disproved in a rational way. Anecdotes just won’t do, sorry!

Only two things can happen. Either shoe signatures repeat often enough to get a “double digit percentage” win as Ellis says or they don’t. I say they don’t. Not that they can’t or never do – just that they don’t occur often enough to rely on. Think about it people! If they did Bacc wouldn’t exist.

But no matter because if they don’t then Ellis will teach you how to alter your play to change gears. So the above study would be a meaningless effort since Ellis plainly says that it doesn’t matter. Can we move on?

So “that’s the trick of it” as Ellis stated. You see folks, Ellis makes a lot of statements about new cards, casino orchestration, repeating shoes, but none of that matters! Ellis has it both ways! Heads he wins, tails you lose. (Clever cliché, huh?)

So this site needs to explore how to guess at the trend. Look, if Ellis can devise a way to change the bet placement method in order to win 83% of shoes as he stated never betting more than 2 units. . . . How hard can it be? The o/t count, the c/s count, w/l count, whatever. By definition counts are mechanical, right? But Ellis says there is no mechanical way to play. “Houston, we have a problem!” No we don’t. By implication Ellis says we can learn to be good guessers!

We hear of the winners occasionally – I am sure they do win. We hear of the losers, occasionally but not too often. There are reasons for that. After paying $500.00 folks a) don’t want to embarrass themselves, b) still hope to find a winning way, c) think it is there own fault for being bad guessers, d) cut their losses and move on. There are no money back guarantees what is the point of publicly burning a bridge and being banned or ostracized?

Finally. Ellis, YOU have ruined this site for everybody! Garnabby hasn’t helped by feeding you. If I didn’t know better I would think you two are in cahoots playing a good cop, bad cop thing. You complain about this site not teaching anything to anyone. What have you taught here? Nothing! You are one long infomercial. You are the only one here with a conflict of interest. You have every right to advertise your site. If folks want to join they will. So advertise from time to time and be done with it!

Archer