Thread: Opposite/repeat sytem idea

While testing a system I came up with an idea for another system. I don't know how much testing I will do on this idea because I have something else that I am working on but here it is:

I looked over around 10 shoes and it hasn't lost yet. It's pretty simple.

You will either be betting Opposite of the last decision (O) or Repeat of last decision (R)

Tracking:
You will tack 5 decisions meaning that you will not bet for 5 decisions while tracking. When opposite wins you write O and when repeat wins you write R.

EX:
B
P O
P R
P R
B O
B R

that is how you track.

-you do not begin to track again until you finish your winning bet.

Ex:
P
P R
P R
P R
B O
P O Bet repeat
B O Lose Bet repeat
B R Win +1 unit. Now track another 4 plays from this point forward.

you determine whether to bet opposite or repeat based on which side wins out of the 5 plays. In the first example there were 3 repeats and 2 opposites. So you will bet repeat.

You will bet 3 decisions. You will always stop and retrack after the 3rd decision. If you lose the first two bets then switch sides for the 3rd bet.

Ex:
P
B O
B R
B R
P O
B O opposite won so bet opposite
B R lose Bet opposite
B R Lose, Bet repeat
B R Win

progression:

1 up 2 down capped at 4. - always going make a 2 unit bet after you make a 1 unit bet. Whether you win or lose. This will help to maximize your profits. For example if you win the 1 unit bet then bet 2 units for your next bet. If you win that 2 unit bet then drop down to 1 unit for next bet.

So if your first bet in a set is 1 unit then you will make a high of 3 unit bet.
If your first bet in a set is 2 units then you will make a high bet of 4 units.

Or you could limit it to a 1,2,1 progression.

John
Very interesting method like the way it grabs the chop,if you LOSE 1-2 in the progression are you going to 3 units for the last switch bet? I was watching live hands from Casino Malta and saw a positive result only tested it for a short time but will test this and going to AC in 2 weeks may give it a live try.Do you have a win goal and loss limit?

Also when you win a bet is that result the first hand in the 5 tracking hands for the next round of play and if the 3 bet goes down does the result start the first hand in the next 5 hand track

Thanks for the hard work

G711

Originally Posted by gerard711

John
Very interesting method like the way it grabs the chop,if you LOSE 1-2 in the progression are you going to 3 units for the last switch bet? I was watching live hands from Casino Malta and saw a positive result only tested it for a short time but will test this and going to AC in 2 weeks may give it a live try.Do you have a win goal and loss limit?

Also when you win a bet is that result the first hand in the 5 tracking hands for the next round of play and if the 3 bet goes down does the result start the first hand in the next 5 hand track

Thanks for the hard work

G711

If you are talking about the first progression that I mentioned then yes, go for the 3 unit bet for the switch.

If you are talking about the second progression that I mentioned then go for a 1 unit bet. Do not go up to 3 units. The second progression is capped at 2 units. If you are using this progression try to go for around +10 units. I am not sure how it will preform though, I did not use this one when looking over shoes. IF i were to play live then I would probably use the 1,2,1 progression.

Loss limit is between 8-10 units.

When you win a bet the result of the final hand won is included in tracking. So you will actually only be tracking another 4 hands. If you are playing the more aggressive progression and you lose the 3 unit bet then that hand is still included in the tracking.

The idea of the system is to try to catch a quick trend. I noticed some shoes go back and fourth between opposite and repeat while other shoes will streak on one side or the other. Hopefully this method will catch the trend.

Geez, I had to check. I thought I was on my own forum for a minute. We've fooled around a lot with that. Yes it has merit. Absolutely. Any system that goes after a trend has merit. Just as any system that bets a pattern has NO merit. In the end, all patterns of the same length occur at exactly the same frequency no matter how tricky you make your pattern the opposite pattern is just as likely. But when you go for short term trends, that's a whole new ball game. Short term trend meaning shoe section, entire shoe, or even a table.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Geez, I had to check. I thought I was on my own forum for a minute. We've fooled around a lot with that. Yes it has merit. Absolutely. Any system that goes after a trend has merit. Just as any system that bets a pattern has NO merit. In the end, all patterns of the same length occur at exactly the same frequency no matter how tricky you make your pattern the opposite pattern is just as likely. But when you go for short term trends, that's a whole new ball game. Short term trend meaning shoe section, entire shoe, or even a table.

I have paid close attention to your teachings (in the free forum) and your progressions. I know that some of your systems are based on opposite and repeat and I also believe that the progressions that I listed are similar or maybe even the same as some of your progressions ( however I could be wrong).

So are you saying that this method has merit because it is going for short term tends rather than long term?

Originally Posted by John1234

I have paid close attention to your teachings (in the free forum) and your progressions. I know that some of your systems are based on opposite and repeat and I also believe that the progressions that I listed are similar or maybe even the same as some of your progressions ( however I could be wrong).

So are you saying that this method has merit because it is going for short term tends rather than long term?

Well, not exactly but that is a point too. I'm differentiating between betting a straight pattern like OR all the way through vs noting what a particular shoe or section is favoring. Big difference.

ooh ok I understand what you are saying now

Nice to have Ellis here making a nice contribution.

Happy to be of some use even if its just in confirmatiom of the direction you're headed. At my age that's about all there's left to hope for. Being of some use.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Happy to be of some use even if its just in confirmatiom of the direction you're headed. At my age that's about all there's left to hope for. Being of some use.

Very nice of you "old" man

Originally Posted by John1234

While testing a system I came up with an idea for another system. I don't know how much testing I will do on this idea because I have something else that I am working on but here it is:

I looked over around 10 shoes and it hasn't lost yet. It's pretty simple.

You will either be betting Opposite of the last decision (O) or Repeat of last decision (R)

Tracking:
You will tack 5 decisions meaning that you will not bet for 5 decisions while tracking. When opposite wins you write O and when repeat wins you write R.

EX:
B
P O
P R
P R
B O
B R

that is how you track.

-you do not begin to track again until you finish your winning bet.

Ex:
P
P R
P R
P R
B O
P O Bet repeat
B O Lose Bet repeat
B R Win +1 unit. Now track another 4 plays from this point forward.

you determine whether to bet opposite or repeat based on which side wins out of the 5 plays. In the first example there were 3 repeats and 2 opposites. So you will bet repeat.

You will bet 3 decisions. You will always stop and retrack after the 3rd decision. If you lose the first two bets then switch sides for the 3rd bet.

Ex:
P
B O
B R
B R
P O
B O opposite won so bet opposite
B R lose Bet opposite
B R Lose, Bet repeat
B R Win

progression:

1 up 2 down capped at 4. - always going make a 2 unit bet after you make a 1 unit bet. Whether you win or lose. This will help to maximize your profits. For example if you win the 1 unit bet then bet 2 units for your next bet. If you win that 2 unit bet then drop down to 1 unit for next bet.

So if your first bet in a set is 1 unit then you will make a high of 3 unit bet.
If your first bet in a set is 2 units then you will make a high bet of 4 units.

Or you could limit it to a 1,2,1 progression.

OJ, How do you to execute the 1-2-1 progression?

Originally Posted by John

I would have attached a file consisting of 9000 results recorded in groups of five, if that would have helped, however as it's in an Excel format, I am prevented in doing so.

Export it to a text file and post it using the CODE available here.

AD

Originally Posted by John

John you should be thanked for sharing your effort on the board.

However I would like to point out one fundamental aspect to all would be system designers. Baccarat is a game of independent results, there is no-correlation whatsoever between what has happened one hand ago, two hands ago or how far you want to base your trend on.

In fact trending this game is a bit like a lottery, it is meaningless, whether you use templates, columns of 3's, 4's or 5's or more, it amounts to the same thing, bet and hope. You and others are attaching some sort of rationale between what has transpired and what “you hope will happen in the next few hand”.

If it what Ellis said was true, you would simply look back at the last two results or three and bet accordingly, if they where the same as in BB or PP you bet follow or maybe ODBL, if opposite as in BP or PB you bet DBL or OLD. However I will tell you, it makes no difference. Because the logic is flawed.

This is why approaching the game using pattern capturing techniques can offer advantages. Firstly to have to realise there will always be a weakness ALWAYS. You decide what you want your weakness to be, could be chops, two series, six streaks, four streaks, eight streaks whatever. You design your bet selection to fail only against that particular weakness, sit at the tables and hope you reach your gaol target before your nemesis presents it-self or presents it self too often.

As a guideline, the more obscure you decide your weakness to be i.e. streaks of 10 the more difficult the money management (progression) will be. Also you could limit your weakness to be applicable to one side only, such as streaks of 10 only on the Player or Banker side, this limits your exposure by 50%. But don’t lose sight of “the more obscure the more difficult or the more money you have to throw at it”.

I would have attached a file consisting of 9000 results recorded in groups of five, if that would have helped, however as it's in an Excel format, I am prevented in doing so.

Good Luck and good hunting.

So you are saying decide how you are going to play before you get to the casinos and tote boards are a waste of time? Is that right?

Originally Posted by joshky

OJ, How do you to execute the 1-2-1 progression?

Here is how I would play it.

Whenever you are winning you bet 1 unit and never go to 2 units.

when you lose the second bet you make a 2 unit bet. If you win this bet then you stop and retrack, going back to 1 unit.

If you lose the 2 unit bet then switch to a 1 unit bet (and don't forget that you switch sides on this bet). you do not advance any further after the 1 unit bet. It progression is capped at the 3rd bet.

Originally Posted by John

John you should be thanked for sharing your effort on the board.

However I would like to point out one fundamental aspect to all would be system designers. Baccarat is a game of independent results, there is no-correlation whatsoever between what has happened one hand ago, two hands ago or how far you want to base your trend on.

In fact trending this game is a bit like a lottery, it is meaningless, whether you use templates, columns of 3's, 4's or 5's or more, it amounts to the same thing, bet and hope. You and others are attaching some sort of rationale between what has transpired and what “you hope will happen in the next few hand”.

If it what Ellis said was true, you would simply look back at the last two results or three and bet accordingly, if they where the same as in BB or PP you bet follow or maybe ODBL, if opposite as in BP or PB you bet DBL or OLD. However I will tell you, it makes no difference. Because the logic is flawed.

This is why approaching the game using pattern capturing techniques can offer advantages. Firstly to have to realise there will always be a weakness ALWAYS. You decide what you want your weakness to be, could be chops, two series, six streaks, four streaks, eight streaks whatever. You design your bet selection to fail only against that particular weakness, sit at the tables and hope you reach your gaol target before your nemesis presents it-self or presents it self too often.

As a guideline, the more obscure you decide your weakness to be i.e. streaks of 10 the more difficult the money management (progression) will be. Also you could limit your weakness to be applicable to one side only, such as streaks of 10 only on the Player or Banker side, this limits your exposure by 50%. But don’t lose sight of “the more obscure the more difficult or the more money you have to throw at it”.

I would have attached a file consisting of 9000 results recorded in groups of five, if that would have helped, however as it's in an Excel format, I am prevented in doing so.

Good Luck and good hunting.

I sort of agree with you..Most of the ideas that I post are not systems that I have used or plan to use..they are simply ideas. If someone would like to take the ideas further then it is up to them. I have my sights set on other aspects of this game.

Originally Posted by John

However I would like to point out one fundamental aspect to all would be system designers. Baccarat is a game of independent results, there is no-correlation whatsoever between what has happened one hand ago, two hands ago or how far you want to base your trend on.

Well you can certainly play under that restriction if you want to. Sorta like with one hand tied behind your back and pay no attention to the history of the table or the shoe or the tote board. After all, the "experts" said the exact same thing about BJ for 20 years. But it turned out they were dead wrong.

To win at BJ, you must play the shoe you are in and the table you are at and the position you are sitting in. You CAN't play every table/shoe/position/hand the same way and expect to win. It's simply not in the cards. And EVERY player who has attempted to play that way lost heavily in the long run. Yet every $10 BJ book and every BJ forum tells you to do exactly that. Mostly told by guys that have little or no actual experience. But there ARE players who win consistently. How'd they do that? Certainly not by playing by rote. They simply figured out that there is no rule that says you can't use your head.

You can do the same in Bac, ignore trends and toteboards altogether. Play with blinders on without using your head whatsoever, by rote. In the long run you will lose for sure because there is no routing of play that works any better than any other routing. The opposite pattern is always just as likely.

No progression can save you. Its just a question of time before you exhaust your progression regardless how complex you make it.

Originally Posted by John

In fact trending this game is a bit like a lottery, it is meaningless, whether you use templates, columns of 3's, 4's or 5's or more, it amounts to the same thing, bet and hope. You and others are attaching some sort of rationale between what has transpired and what “you hope will happen in the next few hand”.

Lets take the obvious first.

When streaky tables stay streaky and choppy tables stay choppy all day like they do at Gold Coast, Vegas, I call that an exploitable trend.

When the morning card prep produces choppy conditions for three years straight like it did at Gold Strike, Tunica, I call that an exploitable trend.

When a Big Bac table favors Player for nine days straight like it did at Foxwood, I'd call that an exploitable trend.

When one color of cards favors chop and the other streak as occurs in AC I call that an exploitable trend.

When one table favors chop and the other streak like it has been doing for years in the upstairs high stakes room at Caesars Vegas, I call that an exploiable trend.

When you get streaky col. choppy col, streaky col, choppy col like we did in AC for three years, I call that an exploitable trend. A quick gander at the card prep would have told you exactly why that happened.

When the cards are so streaky you are seeing nine in a rows in every other shoe like they were in AC every winter for 5 years, I'd call that an exploitable trend.

When you see runs following runs in every casino in Vegas in the Summertime, I'd call that an exploitable trend.

Then there is the not so obvious:

When P and B are are consistently running equal within 4 or less that is an exploitable trend.

When P or B is running significantly ahead, thats an exploitable trend.

When opposites are running relatively equal to repeats thats an exploitable trend.

When Repeats or Opposites are running significantly ahead, thats an exploitable trend.

When TB4L and OTB4L are running relatively equal, that's an exploitable trend.

When either TB4L or OTB4L are running significantly ahead thats an exploitable trend.

A persistent shortage of twos is a highly exploitable trend just as it is for any other event.

I'd like to call your attention to Jerry Patterson's first Bac system. Note which is ahead in the first half of the shoe P or B and flat bet that whichever is behind will catch up in the second half. Reason? Because they work out about even in the long run. This lost EVERY shoe. Reason? Because long run means long run. It doesn't mean the glimpse in time of a single shoe. Single shoes trend AGAINST long run outcomes. And that FACT is EXPLOITABLE. I told Jerry. quick, reverse your system. But it was already too late. Jerry's long time devoted fan club finally revolted. They weren't breaking even like you might think. They were losing every shoe. Jerry did the right thing. He gave each buyer his $8000 back. Hmmm, and you think I charge a lot.

I had occassion to play with 4 guys playing that exact system at Horseshoe, Tunica. I doubt if they got it from Jerry. They more likely dreamed it up themselves as novice players are prone to do - invent losing systems I mean. I never saw them win a single shoe for three months.

The Baccarat Kid would have made a fortune playing with those guys.

Did it ever occur to them to do the exact opposite? Nope. They stuck to their convictions. This is a proud thing! Also highly stupid.

I've been winning playing trends for 25 years. You can pronounce them non existent all you want. That doesn't make it so.

Originally Posted by John

If it what Ellis said was true, you would simply look back at the last two results or three and bet accordingly, if they where the same as in BB or PP you bet follow or maybe ODBL, if opposite as in BP or PB you bet DBL or OLD. However I will tell you, it makes no difference. Because the logic is flawed.

Hey Buddy, you're on your own, Don't put such words in my mouth. Two plays does't make a trend. I never said anything of the kind.

Originally Posted by John

This is why approaching the game using pattern capturing techniques can offer advantages. Firstly to have to realise there will always be a weakness ALWAYS. You decide what you want your weakness to be,

The shoe decides, you don't.

As in BJ, if you can't see trends you simply haven't played long enough. You can ignore them if you like, or pronounce them non existent by rule of some unknown authority. Thats entirely your prerogative. All I'm saying is that if you choose to do that, in the long run, you can't win. You might consider that before you invite others to play that way. But leave me out of it.

My experience is if it is streaky and one identifies it as streaky it will go choppy and vice-versa. Do you believe it seeks balance? Maybe we are better looking for ways to bet into balance instead of "the trend is your friend' and all the other cliches. user

John,

Great comment. One of the best on this board. Thanks.

Ron

Originally Posted by ron90010

John,

Great comment. One of the best on this board. Thanks.

Ron

Could be.

Originally Posted by garnabby

Could be.

Why even post this comment???

Good sharing John, and thank you for sharing it.

Originally Posted by ron90010

Why even post this comment???

Why not?

This board appears to be a continually-growing body of work from many different contributors.

Have you yet seen all of those, or any of the ones still to come? Nor have i.

Aside from that, am i not allowed to agree with you?

"I discovered early in the piece, Baccarat is a money game, you not only do you need it, you need to learn how to use it efficiently. Any and all bet selection's have their limitations, notably the opposite of what you are doing, up against random outcomes that have no relationship to what has transpired. If you attempt to make that opposite, or your nemesis a rare event, then you hopefully shouldn't run into it that often, but hey shit happens. However money is the key, if you have it in abundance then all the better. This doesn't mean you deplete your bankroll to the bitter end, back off and run with a recovery session perhaps, increase your unit value so you can recover faster perhaps, example double the unit value and redo the Labby string, only advisable if your nemesis is weak. I've yet to see any shoe exhibit the same pattern from start to finish, people should explore ways of presenting the smallest chance of losing a series of bets and be prepared IF shit does happen."


Hello Johno - nice to see you posting on this forum.

John,

Do all the non-martingale cancellation-type progressions have equivalent martingales? Or is that why you're continually re-adjusting your bet-selections... to smooth out the end-result (to some form of a straight-up martingale)?

Just wondering. Then it would be easier to further reduce the martingales into one.

To begin, a martingale may be straight-up as, eg, 1, 2, 4, etc, even including the case of "flat betting" by an increase to one times the previous amount. Or a simple combination of those by, eg, [1, 1, 1, 1] to [2, 2, 2, 2], and so on until each level's losses are thusly "recovered" (or more accurately, larger amounts are won). One may combine those two martingales also by combining those "diagonally" by, betting [1, 2, 3, 4] to [2, 3, 4, 5], and so on.

Eg, Grab the Gold used something like just the first two levels of the latter-most betting progression. But over the long-run, such a progression evens out to just one level of each of those respective elements averaged out. In my ex above, [1 1/2, 2 1/2, 3 1/2, and 4 1/2]. So there's really nothing new in that. In fact, w/o some identifiable external advantage in the game, itself, or a betting selection... that short of a betting progression would, itself, average out to a single bet. In my ex, of about 2.

Good idea.. i'll try it.. thx