
Originally Posted by
Grab The Gold
Okay folks, I guess I'd like to weigh in here. I really don't know about all these Methods that "Ellis" has taught the folks on this thread, bet placement, betting progressions etc. That having been said, I would like to address the ORIGINAL remark that Archer made regarding PATTERN Betting. I think there is some merit to that; here's the thing, if you INSTALL a pattern for play and HIT a WIN in that pattern, then one would have look at the permutations of that EXACT pattern repeating in let's say in five to six hands, right? The ODDS are in YOUR FAVOR!
That having been said, I ran a program I have against 200 live shoes that have been recently played, and guess what, it comes pretty close to what "The Wizard of Odds" claculations come out to, let's take a look:
STREAK OF: MY-AVG. WIZ-OF-ODDS
1 .... 19.875 24.84% 25.000%
2 .... 9.695 12.12% 12.500%
3 .... 4.715 5.89% 6.250%
4 .... 1.985 2.48% 3.125%
5 .... 0.905 1.13% 1.560%
6 .... 0.465 0.58% 0.781%
7 .... 0.25 0.31% 0.390%
8 .... 0.095 0.12% 0.197%
9 .... 0.085 0.11% 0.049%
TOTALS 47.59% 49.852%
So what does the above mean? Okay, the first column tells us that on average in an 80-Hand shoe we should see around 19.85 SINGLE CHOPS like this ... PPBPP or PBP, in the first sequence we see 1-BANK surrounded by PLAYERS, and in the second, we 1-BANK surrounded again by two PLAYER hands, thus again an example for a streak of (3) might look like this ... PBBBP, a streak of five BPPPPPBB, (5) PLAYERS surrounded by BANKS etc. So, if we double those AVERAGE percentage figures, half for the PLAYER and the other half for the BANKER we will arrive at close to 100% figure. Now remember, we are talking about chances of STREAKS happening. Thus, if ADD the figures for the chances of STREAKS of ONE, TWO, THREE, and FOUR hands, we will arrive at a percentage figure of close to 90.68% of the shoe will be comprised of hands that do NOT go past a STREAK of FOUR hands. Thus, if you develop a BET SELECTION Method or a PATTERN considering the above, AND DO NOT place bets past (4) hands, WAIT FOR A WIN while still using your BET PLACEMENT strategy for the "TRIGGER" BEFORE Re-Entering the game; and use a BETTING Method that starts with (1) Unit and INCREASE your progression to let's say (2.5) units for the NEXT series of bets and RETURN to (1) Unit once you have recaptured your losses, you should be on the road to reacapturing losses and placing yourself in the PROFIT category. Again, you need to calculate your progression model with your Bet Placement strategy or PATTERN Strategy, this is KEY! The above is just a sample for the explanation of this commentary.
Just some thoughts for the masses.
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