Thread: Ties & Pairs: Ideas on Predicting

Hi everyone,

I know ties and pairs should be avoided but does anyone has any ideas on predicting ties & pairs?

What do you think about:

1. Ties tend to come in tie lines (horizontal matching of bet results arrange in six hands) shown in casino scoreboards in Malaysia?
2. Pairs seem to follow ties.
3. Ties seem to come when player or banker win 6 points or when player cards count 6.

I watch the locals here all play the ties and pair bets all the time and some of them win with amazing regularity. Perhaps it just seems that way as the losing bets get cleaned off the board instantly.

It may only be an illusion, but it seems that ties seem to clump where I play. They may not show up for 30 or 40 hands but then when one does, there tends to be two or three more in the next 15 hands. And then they go away for awhile. This isn't hard evidence or anything, it just appears that way on my local tables.

As I don't track or play ties, anything I say here is worth what you paid for it, like nothing. However, I may start at least annotating the ties on my cards to see if there's anything to the clumping that I think I'm seeing as a casual observer.

AD

it would be interesting to know how much the tie bet gets out of whack and how many shoes it takes to come back to norm.

I used to play ties a lot. I'd wait for a tie and then play the next 3 hands for tie. If I missed I'd wait for another. If I hit one of those I would double my bet and again play the next 3 hands for tie. If I won again I would double up again and so on. So, I would just look for the ties to "clump" up. Once in awhile I would make some real chips. I kept track of it and basically broke even in the end so now I don't play tie - well, sometimes I follow others on the table and make tie bets with them. Asian players like the tie line bet.

There is a mathematical advantage playing tie if you are keeping track of the cards. As certain cards in a shoe are depleted the odds become extremely favorable for tie. Trouble is that many shoes can pass with out getting those cards depletions.

Archer

Hi everyone,

I have discovered that ties seem to come very soon, sometimes twice within the next 2 to 5 hands whenever there is either tie of 8 or 9......

I have found that Banker and Player Pairs, seem to come immediately with more ties. They also at times come in doubles on banker or player sides...

Can anyone share more on ties and pairs on when to expect?

Originally Posted by JohnMalaysia

Hi everyone,

I have discovered that ties seem to come very soon, sometimes twice within the next 2 to 5 hands whenever there is either tie of 8 or 9......

I have found that Banker and Player Pairs, seem to come immediately with more ties. They also at times come in doubles on banker or player sides...

Can anyone share more on ties and pairs on when to expect?

Sorry, unfortunately I did not include ties for shoes I have collected in my database. I cannot help. I just work with run lengths and have no associated card values either.

Archer

Originally Posted by JohnMalaysia

I have found that Banker and Player Pairs, seem to come immediately with more ties. They also at times come in doubles on banker or player sides...

Can anyone share more on ties and pairs on when to expect?

JohnMalaysia,

Clumps of similarly-valued cards, eg, KKAAA222JJJJ223333, shall produce either of ties and/or pairs.

Hence, ties may be ASSOCIATED with pairs (as each are happening, now), but one doesn't CAUSE the other to occur (later).

Hi Garnabby,

Thanks a lot for your kind sharing on Ties & Pairs.....

I will watch out for same value or similarly valued cards to occur and observe the chances of ties and pairs to keep inform...

You are a good contributor in this forum....

Hi Garnabby,

Sorry, can you please explain in specific about your idea of similarly valued cards produce ties or pairs? Do I bet on tie or pie on the next hands when I see banker or/and player w cards of similarly valued cards? How many hands should I follow?

Originally Posted by JohnMalaysia

Hi Garnabby,

Sorry, can you please explain in specific about your idea of similarly valued cards produce ties or pairs? Do I bet on tie or pie on the next hands when I see banker or/and player w cards of similarly valued cards? How many hands should I follow?

JohnMalaysia,

Sorry for my delay getting back to this, my connection went down as i was about to reply earlier.

You are pursuing the toughest bet in baccarat. Sometimes that is a good thing when the nuances (or minor points) can teach us, or be directly applied to, other parts of the game. (I'm sure you've heard the saying, "A hard way to make an easy living.") Asfaras betting tie, i have a strategy for that when "necessary" in the private forum i oversee. And in the "Top ten baccarat-books" thread, a reply about specific cards to watch out for (left in the shoe), which will occasionally result in more ties.

For the ties which result from same/similar -valued cards, the distinctions are finer still.

Same-valued cards like 8, 8, 8, 8, or 0, 0, 7, 7, result in a tie directly; similar-valued cards like 6, 7, 8, 7, (0), or 1, 2, 0, 1, (2), (0), result in a tie after a draw, and seem to tend to force both P and B -sides to draw more often (, which is a good thing for ties because (utimately, for brevity here,) most ties aren't naturals).

Were i to employ your (new?) strategy, i would do so only after observing a lot of such clumping in the first half of any shoe; and perhaps once more throughout it, when such a shoe comes around again (from the shuffler).

************************************************** *******

As an aside to all of this, wrt a lot of questions about doing these things in actual play... perhaps someone with a lot of on-line live casino experience, like John1234, would be interested in presenting us with the available computer-options to, eg, have 4 or 5 of us play in the same on-line game at the same time while remaining in contact with each other?

Originally Posted by Archer

I used to play ties a lot. I'd wait for a tie and then play the next 3 hands for tie. If I missed I'd wait for another. If I hit one of those I would double my bet and again play the next 3 hands for tie. If I won again I would double up again and so on. So, I would just look for the ties to "clump" up. Once in awhile I would make some real chips. I kept track of it and basically broke even in the end so now I don't play tie - well, sometimes I follow others on the table and make tie bets with them. Asian players like the tie line bet.

There is a mathematical advantage playing tie if you are keeping track of the cards. As certain cards in a shoe are depleted the odds become extremely favorable for tie. Trouble is that many shoes can pass with out getting those cards depletions.

Archer

You could also use this method for pairs. I have always seen pairs to follow the first one within the next three games/hands

Originally Posted by garnabby

JohnMalaysia,


As an aside to all of this, wrt a lot of questions about doing these things in actual play... perhaps someone with a lot of on-line live casino experience, like John1234, would be interested in presenting us with the available computer-options to, eg, have 4 or 5 of us play in the same on-line game at the same time while remaining in contact with each other?

Can you please explain what you mean by this? It would be very possible for 4 or 5 people to do this, especially on a site like betphoenix. And the communication part would be easy as well..but now what is the point of this? I'm a bit late in this conversation.

Originally Posted by John1234

Can you please explain what you mean by this? It would be very possible for 4 or 5 people to do this, especially on a site like betphoenix. And the communication part would be easy as well..but now what is the point of this? I'm a bit late in this conversation.

John1234,

The point is that a few persons have PM'ed me about what i'm reading as some sort of further instruction beyond the scope of any given message-board.

Though i'm not immediately inclined to my own idea above, i would like to find out what is available to that option... not specifically to advise anyone's play, but merely to play alongside for the benefit of that, in its self.

Anyway, the "written words" can better reach so many more of us.

Thanks for your prompt reply.

ok, I understand what you mean by that. I like your idea of sort of playing along side of people.

Only thing I have read, or even tried to observe in regards to ties, through the years, is that a tie is "due" every 8 hands on average. However, we all know that NOTHING is due automatically in baccarat or any other form of gaming. I personally do not play ties, so I must add this sharing is probably worth less than 2 cents, so I won't even try to qualify this to the worth of 2 cents.

This idea does not use pairs.. but works around ties. It is something I thought of about a week ago. I tested around 5000 hands and it was positive in 5000 hands but that is such a small sample. I do not intend to continue testing this idea but if anybody else would like to then feel free to:

I only had time to look at 5020 hands. I did not record any stats, I went through the decisions in about 30 minutes, doing the stuff in my head just to see how it holds up.

I noticed that I won a lot more bets than I would lose.

the basic idea to bet around the ties. Whenever you have a streak, you wait for it to be broken after the tie. The decision that breaks the tie is considered the "cap" because it capped the streak. At that point you bet the opposite side. If you lose the bet then you bet the opposite side one more time. and this method seemed to win a lot more than it would lose.

Ex:
P
P
P
P
Tie
B - B capped P so bet P
P Win

Ex2:

b
b
tie
b
p -- p capped b so bet b
B Win

ex3

b
b
tie
p - p capped b so bet b
p- lose, make one more bet
b win

Sometimes that capping bet would occur before the tie. If this happens then I would wait for a streak to occur after the tie then make the bet.

EX:

P
P
P
B
Tie
P
B
P
B
B
P -P capped a streak of B so bet B
B Win stop

So the tie is always the signal of when to make a capping bet. If you win the bet then you wait for another tie. If you lose the bet, you make 1 more bet. Sometimes you have to wait a few hands after the tie to make the capping bet.

Here is another Example:

P
P
P
B
P
B
Tie
P
B
P
P
P
B capped bet P
B bet P
P win stop.


And sometimes the ties run into eachother.

Example:

P
P
P
Tie
P
B cap Bet P
Tie stay with P
B lose the bet, bet P again.
P Win--NOTICE THAT THERE IS ANOTHER CAP, so bet B
B Win
B
Tie
P Cap, bet B
B win





This showed great results over 5020 hands so if we wrap a progression around it then maybe it could be a long term winner?